Economic burden of female genital mutilation in 27 high-prevalence countries.

BACKGROUND: Female genital mutilation (FGM) is a traditional harmful practice affecting 200 million women and girls globally. Health complications of FGM occur immediately and over time, and are associated with healthcare costs that are poorly understood. Quantifying the global FGM-related burden is essential for supporting programmes and policies for prevention and mitigation. METHODS: Health complications of FGM are derived from a meta-analysis and stratified by acute, uro-gynaecological, obstetric and psychological/sexual. Treatment costs are calculated from national cohort models of 27 high-burden countries over 30 years. Savings associated with full/partial abandonment are compared with a current incidence reference scenario, assuming no changes in FGM practices. RESULTS: Our model projects an increasing burden of FGM due to population growth. As a reference scenario assuming no change in practices, prevalent cases in 27 countries will rise from 119.4 million (2018) to 205.8 million (2047). Full abandonment could reduce this to 80.0 million (2047), while partial abandonment is insufficient to reduce cases. Current incidence economic burden is US$1.4 billion/year, rising to US$2.1 billion/year in 2047. Full abandonment would reduce the future burden to US$0.8 billion/year by 2047. CONCLUSION: FGM is a human rights violation, a public health issue and a substantial economic burden that can be avoided through effective prevention strategies. While decreasing trends are observed in some countries, these trends are variable and not consistently observed across settings. Additional resources are needed to prevent FGM to avoid human suffering and growing costs. The findings of this study warrant increased political commitment and investment in the abandonment of FGM.

Costs and impact on HIV transmission of a switch from a criminalisation to a public health approach to injecting drug use in eastern Europe and central Asia: a modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: HIV incidence is increasing in eastern Europe and central Asia, primarily driven by injecting drug use. Coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and opioid agonist therapy are suboptimal, with many people who inject drugs (PWID) being incarcerated. We aimed to assess whether use of monies saved as a result of decriminalisation of drug use or possession to scale up ART and opioid agonist therapy could control HIV transmission among PWID in eastern Europe and central Asia. METHODS: A dynamic HIV transmission model among PWID incorporating incarceration, ART, and opioid agonist therapy was calibrated to Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and St Petersburg (Russia). Country-specific costs for opioid agonist therapy, ART, and incarceration were collated or estimated. Compared with baseline, the model prospectively projected the life-years gained, incremental costs (2018 euros), and infections prevented over 2020-40 for three scenarios. The decriminalisation scenario removed incarceration resulting from drug use or possession for personal use, reducing incarceration among PWID by 24·8% in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan and 46·4% in St Petersburg; the public health approach scenario used savings from decriminalisation to scale up ART and opioid agonist therapy; and the full scale-up scenario included the decriminalisation scenario plus investment of additional resources to scale up ART to the UNAIDS 90-90-90 target of 81% coverage and opioid agonist therapy to the WHO target of 40% coverage. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios per life-year gained for each scenario were calculated and compared with country-specific gross domestic product per-capita willingness-to-pay thresholds. Costs and life-years gained were discounted 3% annually. FINDINGS: Current levels of incarceration, opioid agonist therapy, and ART were estimated to cost from €198 million (95% credibility interval 173-224) in Kyrgyzstan to €4129 million (3897-4358) in Kazakhstan over 2020-40; 74·8-95·8% of these total costs were incarceration costs. Decriminalisation resulted in cost savings (€38-773 million due to reduced prison costs; 16·9-26·1% reduction in overall costs) but modest life-years gained (745-1694). The public health approach was cost saving, allowing each setting to reach 81% ART coverage and 29·7-41·8% coverage of opioid agonist therapy, resulting in 17 768-148 464 life-years gained and 58·9-83·7% of infections prevented. Results were similar for the full scale-up scenario. INTERPRETATION: Cost savings from decriminalisation of drug use could greatly reduce HIV transmission through increased coverage of opioid agonist therapy and ART among PWID in eastern Europe and central Asia. FUNDING: Alliance for Public Health, US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and National Institute for Drug Abuse, and Economist Intelligence Unit.

Healthcare use for children with complex needs: using routine health data linked to a multiethnic, ongoing birth cohort.

OBJECTIVES: Congenital anomaly (CA) are a leading cause of disease, death and disability for children throughout the world. Many have complex and varying healthcare needs which are not well understood. Our aim was to analyse the healthcare needs of children with CA and examine how that healthcare is delivered. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of observational data from the Born in Bradford study, a large prospective birth cohort, linked to primary care data and hospital episode statistics. Negative binomial regression with 95% CIs was performed to predict healthcare use. The authors conducted a subanalysis on referrals to specialists using paper medical records for a sample of 400 children. SETTING: Primary, secondary and tertiary healthcare services in a large city in the north of England. PARTICIPANTS: All children recruited to the birth cohort between March 2007 and December 2011. A total of 706 children with CA and 10 768 without CA were included in the analyses. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Healthcare use for children with and without CA aged 0 to <5 years was the primary outcome measure after adjustment for confounders. RESULTS: Primary care consultations, use of hospital services and referrals to specialists were higher for children with CA than those without. Children in economically deprived neighbourhoods were more likely to be admitted to hospital than consult primary care. Children with CA had a higher use of hospital services (ß 1.48, 95% CI 1.36 to 1.59) than primary care consultations (ß 0.24, 95% CI 1.18 to 0.30). Children with higher educated mothers were less likely to consult primary care and hospital services. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital services are most in demand for children with CA, but also for children who were economically deprived whether they had a CA or not. The complex nature of CA in children requires multidisciplinary management and strengthened coordination between primary and secondary care.

Improving case ascertainment of congenital anomalies: findings from a prospective birth cohort with detailed primary care record linkage.

BACKGROUND: Congenital anomalies (CAs) are a common cause of infant death and disability. We linked children from a large birth cohort to a routine primary care database to detect CA diagnoses from birth to age 5 years. There could be evidence of underreporting by CA registries as they estimate that only 2% of CA registrations occur after age 1 year. METHODS: CA cases were identified by linking children from a prospective birth cohort to primary care records. CAs were classified according to the European Surveillance of CA guidelines. We calculated rates of CAs by using a bodily system group for children aged 0 to <5 years, together with risk ratios (RRs) with 95% CIs for maternal risk factors. RESULTS: Routinely collected primary care data increased the ascertainment of children with CAs from 432.9 per 10 000 live births under 1 year to 620.6 per 10 000 live births under 5 years. Consanguinity was a risk factor for Pakistani mothers (multivariable RR 1.87, 95% CI 1.46 to 2.83), and maternal age >34 years was a risk factor for mothers of other ethnicities (multivariable RR 2.19, 95% CI 1.36 to 3.54). Education was associated with a lower risk (multivariable RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.98). CONCLUSION: 98% of UK CA registrations relate to diagnoses made in the first year of life. Our data suggest that this leads to incomplete case ascertainment with a further 30% identified after age 1 year in our study. Risk factors for CAs identified up to age 1 year persist up to 5 years. National registries should consider using routine data linkage to provide more complete case ascertainment after infancy.