Detecting flood-type-specific flood-rich and flood-poor periods in peaks-over-threshold series with application to Bavaria (Germany).

Previous studies suggest that flood-rich and flood-poor periods are present in many flood peak discharge series around the globe. Understanding the occurrence of these periods and their driving mechanisms is important for reliably estimating future flood probabilities. We propose a method for detecting flood-rich and flood-poor periods in peak-over-threshold series based on scan-statistics and combine it with a flood typology in order to attribute the periods to their flood-generating mechanisms. The method is applied to 164 observed flood series in southern Germany from 1930 to 2018. The results reveal significant flood-rich periods of heavy-rainfall floods, especially in the Danube river basin in the most recent decades. These are consistent with trend analyses from the literature. Additionally, significant flood-poor periods of snowmelt-floods in the immediate past were detected, especially for low-elevation catchments in the alpine foreland and the uplands. The occurrence of flood-rich and flood-poor periods is interpreted in terms of increases in the frequency of heavy rainfall in the alpine foreland and decreases of both soil moisture and snow cover in the midlands.

The Added Value of Different Data Types for Calibrating and Testing a Hydrologic Model in a Small Catchment.

This study investigated the added value of different data for calibrating a runoff model for small basins. The analysis was performed in the 66 ha Hydrological Open Air Laboratory, in Austria. An Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) type, spatially lumped hydrologic model was parameterized following two approaches. First, the model was calibrated using only runoff data. Second, a step-by-step approach was followed, where the modules of the model (snow, soil moisture, and runoff generation) were calibrated using measurements of runoff and model state variables and output fluxes. These measurements comprised laser-based measurements of precipitation, satellite and camera observations of snow, ultrasonic measurements of snow depth, eddy covariance measurements of evapotranspiration, time domain transmissometry-based soil moisture measurements, time-lapse photography of overland flow, and groundwater level measurements by piezometers. The two model parameterizations were evaluated on annual, seasonal, and daily time scales, in terms of how well they simulated snow, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, overland flow, storage change in the saturated zone, and runoff. Using the proposed step-by-step approach, the relative runoff volume errors in the calibration and validation periods were 0.00 and -0.01, the monthly Pearson correlation coefficients were 0.92 and 0.82, and the daily logarithmic Nash Sutcliffe efficiencies were 0.59 and 0.18, respectively. By using different sources of data besides runoff, the overall process consistency improved, compared to the case when only runoff was used for calibration. Soil moisture and evapotranspiration observations had the largest influence on simulated runoff, while the parameterization of the snow and runoff generation modules had a smaller influence.

Vb Cyclones Synchronized With the Arctic-/North Atlantic Oscillation.

Vb cyclones typically emerge in the Western Mediterranean and propagate to the Northeast into Central Europe. This paper explores the temporal characteristics of Vb cyclone occurrence based on cyclone tracks identified at the atmospheric levels of Z700 and sea level pressure, using JRA-55 reanalysis data for the period 1959-2015. The risk of Vb occurrence was significantly high in the 1960s and has remained at a lower level since then. Vb cyclones do not occur fully randomly according to a Poisson point process. Eleven well-separated and distinct clusters as well as 11 hiatus periods are identified, with average occurrence rates of 21.5 and 5.2 yrea-1, respectively. During the event of Vb, the large-scale atmospheric circulation is changed into a state favoring the development of successive Vb cyclones. Clustering is very prominent in the case of Genoan Vb cyclones in summer as well as those Vb cyclones developing over the Iberian Peninsula or the North African Coast in winter. Superposition of the polar and the subtropical jet stream over the Western Mediterranean is identified as a main feature at the onset of Vb cyclones. Vb cyclone occurrence appears to be synchronized with the Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; at Z500) and Arctic Oscillation (AO; at Z1000). Clusters have occurred when both NAO and AO were negative. This relation applies to Western Mediterranean cyclones not following a Vb track as well, however to a much weaker extent. In contrast, Vb cyclone frequency was particularly low from 1988 to 1997 during a sustained positive phase of both NAO and AO.

Reply to Comment by Zhang on "Exploring the Influence of Smallholders' Perceptions Regarding Water Availability on Crop Choice and Water Allocation Through Socio-hydrological Modeling".

Zhang (2019, https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.v54.4) criticizes several of the assumptions and parameter choices of the model of Kuil et al. (2018, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR021420) and claims that, due to an inconsistency in the irrigation equation, the key findings should be interpreted with much caution. We address each of the comments and show that the conclusions of Kuil et al. (2018, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR021420) remain fully valid.

The Value of Empirical Data for Estimating the Parameters of a Sociohydrological Flood Risk Model.

In this paper, empirical data are used to estimate the parameters of a sociohydrological flood risk model. The proposed model, which describes the interactions between floods, settlement density, awareness, preparedness, and flood loss, is based on the literature. Data for the case study of Dresden, Germany, over a period of 200 years, are used to estimate the model parameters through Bayesian inference. The credibility bounds of their estimates are small, even though the data are rather uncertain. A sensitivity analysis is performed to examine the value of the different data sources in estimating the model parameters. In general, the estimated parameters are less biased when using data at the end of the modeled period. Data about flood awareness are the most important to correctly estimate the parameters of this model and to correctly model the system dynamics. Using more data for other variables cannot compensate for the absence of awareness data. More generally, the absence of data mostly affects the estimation of the parameters that are directly related to the variable for which data are missing. This paper demonstrates that combining sociohydrological modeling and empirical data gives additional insights into the sociohydrological system, such as quantifying the forgetfulness of the society, which would otherwise not be easily achieved by sociohydrological models without data or by standard statistical analysis of empirical data.

Disentangling Drivers of Meteorological Droughts in the European Greater Alpine Region During the Last Two Centuries.

This study investigates the atmospheric drivers of severe precipitation deficits in the Greater Alpine Region during the last 210 years utilizing a daily atmospheric circulation type reconstruction. Precipitation deficit tends to be higher during periods with more frequent anticyclonic (dry) and less frequent cyclonic (wet) circulation types, as would be expected. However, circulation characteristics are not the main drivers of summer precipitation deficit. Dry soils in the warm season tend to limit precipitation, which is particularly the case for circulation types that are sensitive to a soil moisture-precipitation feedback. This mechanism is of specific relevance in explaining the major drought decades of the 1860s and 1940s. Both episodes show large negative precipitation anomalies in spring followed by increasing frequencies of circulation types sensitive to soil moisture precipitation feedbacks. The dry springs of the 1860s were likely caused by circulation characteristics that were quite different from those of recent decades as a consequence of the large spatial extent of Arctic sea ice at the end of the Little Ice Age. On the other hand, the dry springs of the 1940s developed under a persistent positive pressure anomaly across Western and Central Europe, triggered by positive sea surface temperatures in the western subtropical Atlantic.

Separation of Scales in Transpiration Effects on Low Flows: A Spatial Analysis in the Hydrological Open Air Laboratory.

The objective of this study was to understand whether spatial differences in runoff generation mechanisms affect the magnitudes of diurnal streamflow fluctuations during low flow periods and which part of the catchment induces the diurnal streamflow signal. The spatiotemporal variability of the streamflow fluctuations observed at 12 locations in the 66-ha Hydrological Open Air Laboratory experimental catchment in Austria was explained by differences in the vegetation cover and runoff generation mechanisms. Almost a quarter of the volume associated with diurnal streamflow fluctuations at the catchment outlet was explained by transpiration from vegetation along the tributaries; more than three quarters was due to transpiration by the riparian forest along the main stream. The lag times between radiative forcing and evapotranspiration estimated by a solar radiation-driven model increased from 3 to 11 hr from spring to autumn. The recession time scales increased from 21 days in spring to 54 days in autumn. Observations and model simulations suggest that a separation of scales in transpiration effects on low flows exists both in time and space; that is, the diurnal streamflow fluctuations are induced by transpiration from the riparian vegetation, while most of the catchment evapotranspiration, such as evapotranspiration from the crop fields further away from the stream, do not influence the diurnal signal in streamflow.

The Kühtai data set: 25 years of lysimetric, snow pillow, and meteorological measurements.

Snow measurements at the Kühtai station in Tirol, Austria, (1920 m.a.s.l.) are described. The data set includes snow water equivalent from a 10 m2 snow pillow, snow melt outflow from a 10 m2 snow lysimeter placed at the same location as the pillow, meteorological data (precipitation, incoming shortwave radiation, reflected shortwave radiation, air temperature, relative air humidity, and wind speed), and other data (snow depths, snow temperatures at seven heights) from the period October 1990 to May 2015. All data have been quality checked, and gaps in the meteorological data have been filled in. The data set is unique in that all data are available at a temporal resolution of 15 min over a period of 25 years with minimal changes in the experimental setup. The data set can therefore be used to analyze snow pack processes over a long-time period, including their extremes and long-term changes, in an Alpine climate. Analyses may benefit from the combined measurement of snow water equivalent, lysimeter outflow, and precipitation at a wind-sheltered alpine site. An example use of data shows the temporal variability of daily and 1 April snow water equivalent observed at the Kühtai site. The results indicate that the snow water equivalent maximum varies between 200 and more than 500 mm w.e., but there is no statistically significant temporal trend in the period 1990-2015.

Land use change impacts on floods at the catchment scale: Challenges and opportunities for future research.

Research gaps in understanding flood changes at the catchment scale caused by changes in forest management, agricultural practices, artificial drainage, and terracing are identified. Potential strategies in addressing these gaps are proposed, such as complex systems approaches to link processes across time scales, long-term experiments on physical-chemical-biological process interactions, and a focus on connectivity and patterns across spatial scales. It is suggested that these strategies will stimulate new research that coherently addresses the issues across hydrology, soil and agricultural sciences, forest engineering, forest ecology, and geomorphology.

Fragmented patterns of flood change across the United States.

Trends in the peak magnitude, frequency, duration, and volume of frequent floods (floods occurring at an average of two events per year relative to a base period) across the United States show large changes; however, few trends are found to be statistically significant. The multidimensional behavior of flood change across the United States can be described by four distinct groups, with streamgages experiencing (1) minimal change, (2) increasing frequency, (3) decreasing frequency, or (4) increases in all flood properties. Yet group membership shows only weak geographic cohesion. Lack of geographic cohesion is further demonstrated by weak correlations between the temporal patterns of flood change and large-scale climate indices. These findings reveal a complex, fragmented pattern of flood change that, therefore, clouds the ability to make meaningful generalizations about flood change across the United States.

Effects of fluctuations in river water level on virus removal by bank filtration and aquifer passage--a scenario analysis.

Riverbank filtration is an effective process for removing pathogenic viruses from river water. Despite indications that changing hydraulic conditions during floods can affect the efficacy of riverbank filtration to remove viruses, the impact on advection and dispersion of viruses in the riverbank is not well understood. We investigated the effects of fluctuations in river water level on virus transport during riverbank filtration, considering 3-D transient groundwater flow and virus transport. Using constant removal rates from published field experiments with bacteriophages, removal of viruses with distance from the riverbank was simulated for coarse gravel, fine gravel and fine sandy gravel. Our simulations showed that, in comparison with steady flow conditions, fluctuations in river water level cause viruses to be transported further at higher concentrations into the riverbank. A 1-5 m increase in river water levels led to a 2- to 4-log (log10 reduction in concentration relative to the initial concentration in the river) increase in virus concentration and to up to 30% shorter travel times. For particular cases during the receding flood, changing groundwater flow conditions caused that pristine groundwater was carried from further inland and that simulated virus concentrations were more diluted in groundwater. Our study suggests that the adverse effect of water level fluctuations on virus transport should be considered in the simulation of safe setback distances for drinking water supplies.

Seasonal characteristics of flood regimes across the Alpine-Carpathian range.

The aim of this paper is to analyse the differences in the long-term regimes of extreme precipitation and floods across the Alpine-Carpathian range using seasonality indices and atmospheric circulation patterns to understand the main flood-producing processes. This is supported by cluster analyses to identify areas of similar flood processes, both in terms of precipitation forcing and catchment processes. The results allow to isolate regions of similar flood generation processes including southerly versus westerly circulation patterns, effects of soil moisture seasonality due to evaporation and effects of soil moisture seasonality due to snow melt. In many regions of the Alpine-Carpathian range, there is a distinct shift in flood generating processes with flood magnitude as evidenced by a shift from summer to autumn floods. It is argued that the synoptic approach proposed here is valuable in both flood analysis and flood estimation.