Correction: Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003793.].

Evaluation of the Global Health Security Index as a predictor of COVID-19 excess mortality standardised for under-reporting and age structure.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have observed that countries with the strongest levels of pandemic preparedness capacities experience the greatest levels of COVID-19 burden. However, these analyses have been limited by cross-country differentials in surveillance system quality and demographics. Here, we address limitations of previous comparisons by exploring country-level relationships between pandemic preparedness measures and comparative mortality ratios (CMRs), a form of indirect age standardisation, of excess COVID-19 mortality. METHODS: We indirectly age standardised excess COVID-19 mortality, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation modelling database, by comparing observed total excess mortality to an expected age-specific COVID-19 mortality rate from a reference country to derive CMRs. We then linked CMRs with data on country-level measures of pandemic preparedness from the Global Health Security (GHS) Index. These data were used as input into multivariable linear regression analyses that included income as a covariate and adjusted for multiple comparisons. We conducted a sensitivity analysis using excess mortality estimates from WHO and The Economist. RESULTS: The GHS Index was negatively associated with excess COVID-19 CMRs (table 2; ß= -0.21, 95% CI= -0.35 to -0.08). Greater capacities related to prevention (ß= -0.11, 95% CI= -0.22 to -0.00), detection (ß= -0.09, 95% CI= -0.19 to -0.00), response (ß = -0.19, 95% CI= -0.36 to -0.01), international commitments (ß= -0.17, 95% CI= -0.33 to -0.01) and risk environments (ß= -0.30, 95% CI= -0.46 to -0.15) were each associated with lower CMRs. Results were not replicated using excess mortality models that rely more heavily on reported COVID-19 deaths (eg, WHO and The Economist). CONCLUSION: The first direct comparison of COVID-19 excess mortality rates across countries accounting for under-reporting and age structure confirms that greater levels of preparedness were associated with lower excess COVID-19 mortality. Additional research is needed to confirm these relationships as more robust national-level data on COVID-19 impact become available.

Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines.

BACKGROUND: The importance of infectious disease epidemic forecasting and prediction research is underscored by decades of communicable disease outbreaks, including COVID-19. Unlike other fields of medical research, such as clinical trials and systematic reviews, no reporting guidelines exist for reporting epidemic forecasting and prediction research despite their utility. We therefore developed the EPIFORGE checklist, a guideline for standardized reporting of epidemic forecasting research. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed this checklist using a best-practice process for development of reporting guidelines, involving a Delphi process and broad consultation with an international panel of infectious disease modelers and model end users. The objectives of these guidelines are to improve the consistency, reproducibility, comparability, and quality of epidemic forecasting reporting. The guidelines are not designed to advise scientists on how to perform epidemic forecasting and prediction research, but rather to serve as a standard for reporting critical methodological details of such studies. CONCLUSIONS: These guidelines have been submitted to the EQUATOR network, in addition to hosting by other dedicated webpages to facilitate feedback and journal endorsement.

Assessing 3 Outbreak Detection Algorithms in an Electronic Syndromic Surveillance System in a Resource-Limited Setting.

We evaluated the performance of X-bar chart, exponentially weighted moving average, and C3 cumulative sums aberration detection algorithms for acute diarrheal disease syndromic surveillance at naval sites in Peru during 2007-2011. The 3 algorithms' detection sensitivity was 100%, specificity was 97%-99%, and positive predictive value was 27%-46%.

Individual and Spatial Risk of Dengue Virus Infection in Puerto Maldonado, Peru.

Dengue virus (DENV) affects more than 100 countries worldwide. Dengue virus infection has been increasing in the southern Peruvian Amazon city of Puerto Maldonado since 2000. We designed this study to describe the prevalence of past DENV infection and to evaluate risk factors. In 2012, we conducted a cross-sectional serosurvey and administered a knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) questionnaire to members of randomly selected households. Sera were screened for antibodies to DENV by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and confirmed by plaque reduction neutralization test. We created indices for KAP (KAPi). We used SaTScan (Martin Kulldorff with Information Management Services Inc., Boston, MA) to detect clustering and created a multivariate model introducing the distance of households to potential vector and infection sources. A total of 505 participants from 307 households provided a blood sample and completed a questionnaire. Fifty-four percent of participants (95% confidence interval [CI]: 49.6; 58.5) had neutralizing antibodies to DENV. Higher values of KAPi were positively associated with having DENV antibodies in the multivariate analysis (odds ratio [ORII]: 1.6, 95% CI: 0.6, 2.4; ORIII: 2.7, 95% CI: 1.3, 5.5; and ORIV: 2.4, 95% CI: 1.2, 5.0). Older groups had lower chances of having been exposed to DENV than younger people (OR20-30: 0.5, 95% CI: 0.2, 0.8; OR31-45: 0.5, 95% CI: 0.3, 0.9; and OR>45: 0.6, 95% CI: 0.3, 1.3). Multivariate data analysis from the 270 households with location information showed male gender to have lower risk of past DENV infection (OR: 0.6, 95% CI: 0.4, 0.9). We conclude that risk of DENV infection in Puerto Maldonado is related to gender, age of the population, and location.

An outbreak of Leptospirosis among United States military personnel in Guam.

BACKGROUND: Leptospirosis is a bacterial zoonotic disease with worldwide distribution. CASE PRESENTATION: We describe and discuss the clinical course of a leptospirosis outbreak in a running club called the hash house harriers on Guam. CONCLUSIONS: Leptospirosis is a potentialy life threatening disease, and has had a reemergence given the popularity of travel adventure sports, teams, and clubs around the world. This case presentation highlights the robust prescence of leptospirosis on Guam.

Whole-Genome Analysis of Bartonella ancashensis, a Novel Pathogen Causing Verruga Peruana, Rural Ancash Region, Peru.

The genus Bartonella contains >40 species, and an increasing number of these Bartonella species are being implicated in human disease. One such pathogen is Bartonella ancashensis, which was isolated in blood samples from 2 patients living in Caraz, Peru, during a clinical trial of treatment for bartonellosis. Three B. ancashensis strains were analyzed by using whole-genome restriction mapping and high-throughput pyrosequencing. Genome-wide comparative analysis of Bartonella species showed that B. ancashensis has features seen in modern and ancient lineages of Bartonella species and is more related to B. bacilliformis. The divergence between B. ancashensis and B. bacilliformis is much greater than what is seen between known Bartonella genetic lineages. In addition, B. ancashensis contains type IV secretion system proteins, which are not present in B. bacilliformis. Whole-genome analysis indicates that B. ancashensis might represent a distinct Bartonella lineage phylogenetically related to B. bacilliformis.

Public Health Surveillance: At the Core of the Global Health Security Agenda.

Global health security involves developing the infrastructure and capacity to protect the health of people and societies worldwide. The acceleration of global travel and trade poses greater opportunities for infectious diseases to emerge and spread. The International Health Regulations (IHR) were adopted in 2005 with the intent of proactively developing public health systems that could react to the spread of infectious disease and provide better containment. Various challenges delayed adherence to the IHR. The Global Health Security Agenda came about as an international collaborative effort, working multilaterally among governments and across sectors, seeking to implement the IHR and develop the capacities to prevent, detect, and respond to public health emergencies of international concern. When examining the recent West African Ebola epidemic as a case study for global health security, both strengths and weaknesses in the public health response are evident. The central role of public health surveillance is a lesson reiterated by Ebola. Through further implementation of the Global Health Security Agenda, identified gaps in surveillance can be filled and global health security strengthened.

Understanding How the "Open" of Open Source Software (OSS) Will Improve Global Health Security.

Improving global health security will require bold action in all corners of the world, particularly in developing settings, where poverty often contributes to an increase in emerging infectious diseases. In order to mitigate the impact of emerging pandemic threats, enhanced disease surveillance is needed to improve early detection and rapid response to outbreaks. However, the technology to facilitate this surveillance is often unattainable because of high costs, software and hardware maintenance needs, limited technical competence among public health officials, and internet connectivity challenges experienced in the field. One potential solution is to leverage open source software, a concept that is unfortunately often misunderstood. This article describes the principles and characteristics of open source software and how it may be applied to solve global health security challenges.

Prevalence of Nasal colonization with Staphylococcus aureus in 4 cities in Peru.

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a growing public health threat around the world and is not well characterized in the developing setting. Specifically, there is a lack of information regarding nasal colonization with S. aureus and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in Latin America and Peru. METHODS: This is the report of the baseline findings of a prospective cohort study followed up over 1 year at four geographically and ecologically distinct Peruvian Air Force bases in order to determine S. aureus nasal colonization prevalence and risk factors. Additionally, all MRSA isolates underwent molecular analysis which included pulsed-field gel electrophoresis and determination of virulence and resistance genes. RESULTS: We enrolled 756 military personnel. Anterior nares colonization with Staphylococcus aureus was detected in 73 of 756 participants (9.7 %) and MRSA was detected in 2 of 756 (0.3 %). Colonization rates differed significantly (P = 0.02) between geographic enrollment sites: Talara-4.3 %, Iquitos-9.1 %, Arequipa-14.0 % and Lima-11.3 %. Risk factors for S. aureus colonization included being male and a reported history of respiratory disease. CONCLUSION: Overall, we found low prevalence of S. aureus and MRSA nasal colonization in this Peruvian military population. These findings contribute to the overall epidemiological understanding of S. aureus and MRSA in Latin America. The colonization rates which varied based on geographical location warrants further study.

Complete Genome Sequence of Bartonella ancashensis Strain 20.00, Isolated from the Blood of a Patient with Verruga Peruana.

Here we present the complete genome sequence of Bartonella ancashensis strain 20.00, isolated from the blood of a Peruvian patient with verruga peruana, known as Carrion's disease. Bartonella ancashensis is a Gram-negative bacillus, phylogenetically most similar to Bartonella bacilliformis, the causative agent of Oroya fever and verruga peruana.

Description of Bartonella ancashensis sp. nov., isolated from the blood of two patients with verruga peruana.

Three novel isolates of the genus Bartonella were recovered from the blood of two patients enrolled in a clinical trial for the treatment of chronic stage Bartonella bacilliformis infection (verruga peruana) in Caraz, Ancash, Peru. The isolates were initially characterized by sequencing a fragment of the gltA gene, and found to be disparate from B. bacilliformis. The isolates were further characterized using phenotypic and genotypic methods, and found to be genetically identical to each other for the genes assessed, but distinct from any known species of the genus Bartonella, including the closest relative B. bacilliformis. Other characteristics of the isolates, including their morphology, microscopic and biochemical properties, and growth patterns, were consistent with members of the genus Bartonella. Based on these results, we conclude that these three isolates are members of a novel species of the genus Bartonella for which we propose the name Bartonella ancashensis sp. nov. (type strain 20.00T = ATCC BAA-2694T = DSM 29364T).

Economic Burden of Dengue Virus Infection at the Household Level Among Residents of Puerto Maldonado, Peru.

Dengue virus (DENV) was reintroduced to Peru in the 1990s and has been reported in Puerto Maldonado (population ~65,000) in the Peruvian southern Amazon basin since 2000. This region also has the highest human migration rate in the country, mainly from areas not endemic for DENV. The objective of this study was to assess the proportion of household income that is diverted to costs incurred because of dengue illness and to compare these expenses between recent migrants (RMs) and long-term residents (LTRs). We administered a standardized questionnaire to persons diagnosed with dengue illness at Hospital Santa Rosa in Puerto Maldonado from December 2012 to March 2013. We compared direct and indirect medical costs between RMs and LTRs. A total of 80 participants completed the survey, of whom 28 (35%) were RMs and 52 (65%) were LTRs. Each dengue illness episode cost the household an average of US$105 (standard deviation [SD] = 107), representing 24% of their monthly income. Indirect costs were the greatest expense (US$56, SD = 87), especially lost wages. The proportion of household income diverted to dengue illness did not differ significantly between RM and LTR households. The study highlights the significant financial burden incurred by households when a family member suffers dengue illness.

Epidemiology and Genetic Characterization of Noroviruses among Adults in an Endemic Setting, Peruvian Amazon Basin, 2004-2011.

BACKGROUND: Successful vaccination strategies against norovirus will require understanding the burden of disease and relevant genotypes in populations. However, few data are available from cohort studies of adults living in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a nested case-control study within a Peruvian military cohort to characterize the burden of norovirus infection, predominant genotypes, and associated symptoms from 2004 through 2011. Randomly selected case and control stools were tested for norovirus, bacteria, and parasites. The odds ratio of the association between norovirus infection and diarrhea was estimated using multiple logistic regression and co-infection adjusted attributable fractions were calculated. RESULTS: Of the 3,818 cohort study participants, 624 developed diarrhea. Overall and norovirus-associated diarrhea incidence rates were 42.3 and 6.0 per 100 person-years, respectively. The most prevalent norovirus genogroup was GII (72.5%, 29/40), which was associated with diarrhea (AOR 3.4, 95% CI: 1.3-8.7, P = 0.012). The co-infection adjusted GII attributable fraction was 6.4%. DISCUSSION: Norovirus was a frequent cause of diarrhea in an adult population followed longitudinally in an LMIC setting. Vaccine strategies should consider targeting adults in endemic settings and special populations that could serve as community transmission sources.

Global health diplomacy training for military medical researchers.

Given the unprecedented growth of global health initiatives in the past decade, informal diplomacy between technical partners plays an increasingly important role in shaping opportunities and outcomes. This article describes a course developed and executed specifically to equip U.S. military health professionals with core skills in practical diplomacy critical to help them successfully plan and implement public health surveillance, research, and capacity building programs with partner nation governments and organizations. We identified core competencies in practical diplomacy for laboratory and public health researchers, catalogued and evaluated existing training programs, and then developed a pilot course in global health diplomacy for military medical researchers. The pilot course was held in June 2012, and focused on analyzing contemporary issues related to global health diplomacy through the framework of actors, drivers, and policies that affect public health research and capacity-building, beginning at the level of global health governance and cooperation and moving progressively to regional (supranational), national, and institutional perspective. This course represents an approach geared toward meeting the needs specific to U.S. military public health personnel and researchers working in international settings.

Molecular typing of "Candidatus Bartonella ancashi," a new human pathogen causing verruga peruana.

A recently described clinical isolate, "Candidatus Bartonella ancashi," was obtained from a blood sample of a patient presenting with verruga peruana in the Ancash region of Peru. This sample and a second isolate obtained 60 days later from the same patient were molecularly typed using multilocus sequence typing (MLST) and multispacer sequence typing (MST). The isolates were 100% indistinguishable from each other but phylogenetically distant from Bartonella bacilliformis and considerably divergent from other known Bartonella species, confirming their novelty.

Novel Bartonella agent as cause of verruga peruana.

While studying chronic verruga peruana infections in Peru from 2003, we isolated a novel Bartonella agent, which we propose be named Candidatus Bartonella ancashi. This case reveals the inherent weakness of relying solely on clinical syndromes for diagnosis and underscores the need for a new diagnostic paradigm in developing settings.