Correction: Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003793.].

Evaluation of the Global Health Security Index as a predictor of COVID-19 excess mortality standardised for under-reporting and age structure.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have observed that countries with the strongest levels of pandemic preparedness capacities experience the greatest levels of COVID-19 burden. However, these analyses have been limited by cross-country differentials in surveillance system quality and demographics. Here, we address limitations of previous comparisons by exploring country-level relationships between pandemic preparedness measures and comparative mortality ratios (CMRs), a form of indirect age standardisation, of excess COVID-19 mortality. METHODS: We indirectly age standardised excess COVID-19 mortality, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation modelling database, by comparing observed total excess mortality to an expected age-specific COVID-19 mortality rate from a reference country to derive CMRs. We then linked CMRs with data on country-level measures of pandemic preparedness from the Global Health Security (GHS) Index. These data were used as input into multivariable linear regression analyses that included income as a covariate and adjusted for multiple comparisons. We conducted a sensitivity analysis using excess mortality estimates from WHO and The Economist. RESULTS: The GHS Index was negatively associated with excess COVID-19 CMRs (table 2; ß= -0.21, 95% CI= -0.35 to -0.08). Greater capacities related to prevention (ß= -0.11, 95% CI= -0.22 to -0.00), detection (ß= -0.09, 95% CI= -0.19 to -0.00), response (ß = -0.19, 95% CI= -0.36 to -0.01), international commitments (ß= -0.17, 95% CI= -0.33 to -0.01) and risk environments (ß= -0.30, 95% CI= -0.46 to -0.15) were each associated with lower CMRs. Results were not replicated using excess mortality models that rely more heavily on reported COVID-19 deaths (eg, WHO and The Economist). CONCLUSION: The first direct comparison of COVID-19 excess mortality rates across countries accounting for under-reporting and age structure confirms that greater levels of preparedness were associated with lower excess COVID-19 mortality. Additional research is needed to confirm these relationships as more robust national-level data on COVID-19 impact become available.

Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines.

BACKGROUND: The importance of infectious disease epidemic forecasting and prediction research is underscored by decades of communicable disease outbreaks, including COVID-19. Unlike other fields of medical research, such as clinical trials and systematic reviews, no reporting guidelines exist for reporting epidemic forecasting and prediction research despite their utility. We therefore developed the EPIFORGE checklist, a guideline for standardized reporting of epidemic forecasting research. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed this checklist using a best-practice process for development of reporting guidelines, involving a Delphi process and broad consultation with an international panel of infectious disease modelers and model end users. The objectives of these guidelines are to improve the consistency, reproducibility, comparability, and quality of epidemic forecasting reporting. The guidelines are not designed to advise scientists on how to perform epidemic forecasting and prediction research, but rather to serve as a standard for reporting critical methodological details of such studies. CONCLUSIONS: These guidelines have been submitted to the EQUATOR network, in addition to hosting by other dedicated webpages to facilitate feedback and journal endorsement.

Assessing 3 Outbreak Detection Algorithms in an Electronic Syndromic Surveillance System in a Resource-Limited Setting.

We evaluated the performance of X-bar chart, exponentially weighted moving average, and C3 cumulative sums aberration detection algorithms for acute diarrheal disease syndromic surveillance at naval sites in Peru during 2007-2011. The 3 algorithms' detection sensitivity was 100%, specificity was 97%-99%, and positive predictive value was 27%-46%.

Individual and Spatial Risk of Dengue Virus Infection in Puerto Maldonado, Peru.

Dengue virus (DENV) affects more than 100 countries worldwide. Dengue virus infection has been increasing in the southern Peruvian Amazon city of Puerto Maldonado since 2000. We designed this study to describe the prevalence of past DENV infection and to evaluate risk factors. In 2012, we conducted a cross-sectional serosurvey and administered a knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) questionnaire to members of randomly selected households. Sera were screened for antibodies to DENV by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and confirmed by plaque reduction neutralization test. We created indices for KAP (KAPi). We used SaTScan (Martin Kulldorff with Information Management Services Inc., Boston, MA) to detect clustering and created a multivariate model introducing the distance of households to potential vector and infection sources. A total of 505 participants from 307 households provided a blood sample and completed a questionnaire. Fifty-four percent of participants (95% confidence interval [CI]: 49.6; 58.5) had neutralizing antibodies to DENV. Higher values of KAPi were positively associated with having DENV antibodies in the multivariate analysis (odds ratio [ORII]: 1.6, 95% CI: 0.6, 2.4; ORIII: 2.7, 95% CI: 1.3, 5.5; and ORIV: 2.4, 95% CI: 1.2, 5.0). Older groups had lower chances of having been exposed to DENV than younger people (OR20-30: 0.5, 95% CI: 0.2, 0.8; OR31-45: 0.5, 95% CI: 0.3, 0.9; and OR>45: 0.6, 95% CI: 0.3, 1.3). Multivariate data analysis from the 270 households with location information showed male gender to have lower risk of past DENV infection (OR: 0.6, 95% CI: 0.4, 0.9). We conclude that risk of DENV infection in Puerto Maldonado is related to gender, age of the population, and location.

An outbreak of Leptospirosis among United States military personnel in Guam.

BACKGROUND: Leptospirosis is a bacterial zoonotic disease with worldwide distribution. CASE PRESENTATION: We describe and discuss the clinical course of a leptospirosis outbreak in a running club called the hash house harriers on Guam. CONCLUSIONS: Leptospirosis is a potentialy life threatening disease, and has had a reemergence given the popularity of travel adventure sports, teams, and clubs around the world. This case presentation highlights the robust prescence of leptospirosis on Guam.

Public Health Surveillance: At the Core of the Global Health Security Agenda.

Global health security involves developing the infrastructure and capacity to protect the health of people and societies worldwide. The acceleration of global travel and trade poses greater opportunities for infectious diseases to emerge and spread. The International Health Regulations (IHR) were adopted in 2005 with the intent of proactively developing public health systems that could react to the spread of infectious disease and provide better containment. Various challenges delayed adherence to the IHR. The Global Health Security Agenda came about as an international collaborative effort, working multilaterally among governments and across sectors, seeking to implement the IHR and develop the capacities to prevent, detect, and respond to public health emergencies of international concern. When examining the recent West African Ebola epidemic as a case study for global health security, both strengths and weaknesses in the public health response are evident. The central role of public health surveillance is a lesson reiterated by Ebola. Through further implementation of the Global Health Security Agenda, identified gaps in surveillance can be filled and global health security strengthened.

Economic Burden of Dengue Virus Infection at the Household Level Among Residents of Puerto Maldonado, Peru.

Dengue virus (DENV) was reintroduced to Peru in the 1990s and has been reported in Puerto Maldonado (population ~65,000) in the Peruvian southern Amazon basin since 2000. This region also has the highest human migration rate in the country, mainly from areas not endemic for DENV. The objective of this study was to assess the proportion of household income that is diverted to costs incurred because of dengue illness and to compare these expenses between recent migrants (RMs) and long-term residents (LTRs). We administered a standardized questionnaire to persons diagnosed with dengue illness at Hospital Santa Rosa in Puerto Maldonado from December 2012 to March 2013. We compared direct and indirect medical costs between RMs and LTRs. A total of 80 participants completed the survey, of whom 28 (35%) were RMs and 52 (65%) were LTRs. Each dengue illness episode cost the household an average of US$105 (standard deviation [SD] = 107), representing 24% of their monthly income. Indirect costs were the greatest expense (US$56, SD = 87), especially lost wages. The proportion of household income diverted to dengue illness did not differ significantly between RM and LTR households. The study highlights the significant financial burden incurred by households when a family member suffers dengue illness.

Epidemiology and Genetic Characterization of Noroviruses among Adults in an Endemic Setting, Peruvian Amazon Basin, 2004-2011.

BACKGROUND: Successful vaccination strategies against norovirus will require understanding the burden of disease and relevant genotypes in populations. However, few data are available from cohort studies of adults living in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a nested case-control study within a Peruvian military cohort to characterize the burden of norovirus infection, predominant genotypes, and associated symptoms from 2004 through 2011. Randomly selected case and control stools were tested for norovirus, bacteria, and parasites. The odds ratio of the association between norovirus infection and diarrhea was estimated using multiple logistic regression and co-infection adjusted attributable fractions were calculated. RESULTS: Of the 3,818 cohort study participants, 624 developed diarrhea. Overall and norovirus-associated diarrhea incidence rates were 42.3 and 6.0 per 100 person-years, respectively. The most prevalent norovirus genogroup was GII (72.5%, 29/40), which was associated with diarrhea (AOR 3.4, 95% CI: 1.3-8.7, P = 0.012). The co-infection adjusted GII attributable fraction was 6.4%. DISCUSSION: Norovirus was a frequent cause of diarrhea in an adult population followed longitudinally in an LMIC setting. Vaccine strategies should consider targeting adults in endemic settings and special populations that could serve as community transmission sources.

Molecular typing of "Candidatus Bartonella ancashi," a new human pathogen causing verruga peruana.

A recently described clinical isolate, "Candidatus Bartonella ancashi," was obtained from a blood sample of a patient presenting with verruga peruana in the Ancash region of Peru. This sample and a second isolate obtained 60 days later from the same patient were molecularly typed using multilocus sequence typing (MLST) and multispacer sequence typing (MST). The isolates were 100% indistinguishable from each other but phylogenetically distant from Bartonella bacilliformis and considerably divergent from other known Bartonella species, confirming their novelty.

Novel Bartonella agent as cause of verruga peruana.

While studying chronic verruga peruana infections in Peru from 2003, we isolated a novel Bartonella agent, which we propose be named Candidatus Bartonella ancashi. This case reveals the inherent weakness of relying solely on clinical syndromes for diagnosis and underscores the need for a new diagnostic paradigm in developing settings.

Contributions of the Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System Network to global health security in 2011.

In its 15th year, the Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (GEIS) continued to make significant contributions to global public health and emerging infectious disease surveillance worldwide. As a division of the US Department of Defense's Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center since 2008, GEIS coordinated a network of surveillance and response activities through collaborations with 33 partners in 76 countries. The GEIS was involved in 73 outbreak responses in fiscal year 2011. Significant laboratory capacity-building initiatives were undertaken with 53 foreign health, agriculture and/or defense ministries, as well as with other US government entities and international institutions, including support for numerous national influenza centers. Equally important, a variety of epidemiologic training endeavors reached over 4,500 individuals in 96 countries. Collectively, these activities enhanced the ability of partner countries and the US military to make decisions about biological threats and design programs to protect global public health as well as global health security.

Epidemic activity after natural disasters without high mortality in developing settings.

Natural disasters with minimal human mortality rarely capture headlines but occur frequently and result in significant morbidity and economic loss. We compared the epidemic activity observed after a flood, an earthquake, and volcanic activity in Peru. Following post-disaster guidelines, healthcare facilities and evacuation centers surveyed 10-12 significant health conditions for ~45 days and compared disease frequency with Poisson regression. The disasters affected 20,709 individuals and 15% were placed in evacuation centers. Seven deaths and 6,056 health conditions were reported (mean: 0.29 per person). Health facilities reported fewer events than evacuation centers (0.06-0.24 vs. 0.65-2.02, P < 0.001) and disease notification increased 1.6 times after the disasters (95% CI: 1.5-1.6). Acute respiratory infections were the most frequent event (41-57%) and psychological distress was second/third (7.6% to 14.3%). Morbidity increased after disasters without substantial casualties, particularly at evacuation centers, with frequent respiratory infections and psychological distress. Post-disaster surveillance is valuable even after low-mortality events.

Effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccines against influenza-associated illnesses among US military personnel in 2010-11: a case-control approach.

INTRODUCTION: Following the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 (pH1N1) pandemic, both seasonal and pH1N1 viruses circulated in the US during the 2010-2011 influenza season; influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) may vary between live attenuated (LAIV) and trivalent inactivated (TIV) vaccines as well as by virus subtype. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Vaccine type and virus subtype-specific VE were determined for US military active component personnel for the period of September 1, 2010 through April 30, 2011. Laboratory-confirmed influenza-related medical encounters were compared to matched individuals with a non-respiratory illness (healthy controls), and unmatched individuals who experienced a non-influenza respiratory illness (test-negative controls). Odds ratios (OR) and VE estimates were calculated overall, by vaccine type and influenza subtype. RESULTS: A total of 603 influenza cases were identified. Overall VE was relatively low and similar regardless of whether healthy controls (VE = 26%, 95% CI: -1 to 45) or test-negative controls (VE = 29%, 95% CI: -6 to 53) were used as comparison groups. Using test-negative controls, vaccine type-specific VE was found to be higher for TIV (53%, 95% CI: 25 to 71) than for LAIV (VE = -13%, 95% CI: -77 to 27). Influenza subtype-specific analyses revealed moderate protection against A/H3 (VE = 58%, 95% CI: 21 to 78), but not against A/H1 (VE = -38%, 95% CI: -211 to 39) or B (VE = 34%, 95% CI: -122 to 80). CONCLUSION: Overall, a low level of protection against clinically-apparent, laboratory-confirmed, influenza was found for the 2010-11 seasonal influenza vaccines. TIV immunization was associated with higher protection than LAIV, however, no protection against A/H1 was noted, despite inclusion of a pandemic influenza strain as a vaccine component for two consecutive years. Vaccine virus mismatch or lower immunogenicity may have contributed to these findings and deserve further examination in controlled studies. Continued assessment of VE in military personnel is essential in order to better inform vaccination policy decisions.

Novel strain of Andes virus associated with fatal human infection, central Bolivia.

To better describe the genetic diversity of hantaviruses associated with human illness in South America, we screened blood samples from febrile patients in Chapare Province in central Bolivia during 2008-2009 for recent hantavirus infection. Hantavirus RNA was detected in 3 patients, including 1 who died. Partial RNA sequences of small and medium segments from the 3 patients were most closely related to Andes virus lineages but distinct (<90% nt identity) from reported strains. A survey for IgG against hantaviruses among residents of Chapare Province indicated that 12.2% of the population had past exposure to >1 hantaviruses; the highest prevalence was among agricultural workers. Because of the high level of human exposure to hantavirus strains and the severity of resulting disease, additional studies are warranted to determine the reservoirs, ecologic range, and public health effect of this novel strain of hantavirus.

Condom use by partner type among military and police personnel in Peru.

The aim of this study was to analyze the rates of condom use among military and police populations in Peru, focusing on differences in use by type of partner. A Knowledge Attitudes and Practices survey was conducted among 6,808 military and police personnel in 18 Peruvian cities between August-September 2006 and September-October 2007. A total of 90.2% of the survey respondents were male; mean age was 37.8 years and 77.9% were married/cohabiting. In all, 99.5% reported having had sex; 89% of the participants had their last sexual contact with their stable partner, 9.7% with a nonstable partner, and 0.8% with a sex worker. Overall, 20.4% used a condom during their most recent sexual contact. Reasons for nonuse of condoms included the following: perception that a condom was not necessary (31.3%) and using another birth control method (26.7%). Prevention efforts against sexually transmitted diseases should focus on strengthening condom use, especially among individuals with nonstable partners.

The role of disease surveillance in achieving IHR compliance by 2012.

The World Health Organization's revised International Health Regulations (IHR (2005)) call for member state compliance by mid-2012. Variation in disease surveillance and core public health capacities will affect each member state's ability to meet this deadline. We report on topics presented at the preconference workshop, "The Interaction of Disease Surveillance and the International Health Regulations," held at the 2010 International Society for Disease Surveillance conference in Park City, Utah. Presenters were from the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, U.S. Naval Research Unit Six, the Philippines' National Epidemiologic Center, and the French armed forces. The topics addressed were: an overview of the revised IHRs; disease surveillance systems implemented in Peru, the Philippines, and by the French armed forces; the capacity building efforts of the CDC; partnerships and contributions to IHR compliance from HHS; and the application of the IHRs to special populations. Results from the meeting evaluation indicate that many participants found the information useful in better understanding current efforts of the U.S. government and international organizations, areas for collaboration, and how the IHRs apply to their countries' public health systems. Topics to address at future workshops include progress and challenges to IHR implementation across all member states and additional examples of how disease surveillance supports the IHRs in resource-constrained countries. The preconference workshop provided the opportunity to convene public health experts from all regions of the world. Stronger collaborations and support to better detect and respond to public health events through building sustainable disease surveillance systems will not only help member states to meet IHR compliance by 2012, but will also improve pandemic preparedness and global health security.