Modelling Treatment Sequences in Immunology: Optimizing Patient Outcomes.

INTRODUCTION: For some immune-mediated disorders, despite the range of therapies available there is limited evidence on which treatment sequences are best for patients and healthcare systems. We investigated how their selection can impact outcomes in an Italian setting. METHODS: A 3-year state-transition treatment-sequencing model calculated potential effectiveness improvements and budget reallocation considerations associated with implementing optimal sequences in ankylosing spondylitis (AS), Crohn's disease (CD), non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis (NR-AxSpA), plaque psoriasis (PsO), psoriatic arthritis (PsA), rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and ulcerative colitis (UC). Sequences included three biological or disease-modifying treatments, followed by best supportive care. Disease-specific response measures were selected on the basis of clinical relevance, data availability, and data quality. Efficacy was differentiated between biologic-naïve and experienced populations, where possible, using published network meta-analyses and real-world data. All possible treatment sequences, based on reimbursement as of December 2022 in Italy (analyses' base country), were simulated. RESULTS: Sequences with the best outcomes consistently employed the most efficacious therapies earlier in the treatment pathway. Improvements to prescribing practice are possible in all diseases; however, most notable was UC, where the per-patient 3-year average treatment failure was 37.3% higher than optimal. The results focused on the three most crowded and prevalent immunological sub-condition diseases in dermatology, rheumatology, and gastroenterology: PsO, RA, and UC, respectively. By prescribing from within the top 20% of the most efficacious sequences, the model found a 15.1% reduction in treatment failures, with a 1.59% increase in drug costs. CONCLUSIONS: Prescribing more efficacious treatments earlier provides a greater opportunity to improve patient outcomes and minimizes treatment failures.

Cost Effectiveness of Endovascular Ultrasound Renal Denervation in Patients with Resistant Hypertension.

BACKGROUND: Resistant hypertension (rHTN) is defined as blood pressure (BP) of ≥ 140/90 mmHg despite treatment with at least three antihypertensive medications, including a diuretic. Endovascular ultrasound renal denervation (uRDN) aims to control BP alongside conventional BP treatment with antihypertensive medication. This analysis assesses the cost effectiveness of the addition of the Paradise uRDN System compared with standard of care alone in patients with rHTN from the perspective of the United Kingdom (UK) health care system. METHODS: Using RADIANCE-HTN TRIO trial data, we developed a state-transition model. Baseline risk was calculated using Framingham and Prospective Cardiovascular Münster (PROCAM) risk equations to estimate the long-term cardiovascular risks in patients treated with the Paradise uRDN System, based on the observed systolic BP (SBP) reduction following uRDN. Relative risks sourced from a meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials were then used to project cardiovascular events in patients with baseline SBP ('control' patients); utility and mortality inputs and costs were derived from UK data. Costs and outcomes were discounted at 3.5% per annum. Modelled outcomes were validated against trial meta-analyses and the QRISK3 algorithm and real-world evidence of RDN effectiveness. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the uncertainty surrounding the model inputs and sensitivity of the model results to changes in parameter inputs. Results were reported as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). RESULTS: A mean reduction in office SBP of 8.5 mmHg with uRDN resulted in an average improvement in both absolute life-years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained compared with standard of care alone (0.73 LYs and 0.67 QALYs). The overall base-case ICER with uRDN was estimated at £5600 (€6500) per QALY gained (95% confidence interval £5463-£5739 [€6341-€6661]); modelling demonstrated > 99% probability that the ICER is below the £20,000-£30,000 (€23,214-€34,821) per QALYs gained willingness-to-pay threshold in the UK. Results were consistent across sensitivity analyses and validation checks. CONCLUSIONS: Endovascular ultrasound RDN with the Paradise system offers patients with rHTN, clinicians, and healthcare systems a cost-effective treatment option alongside antihypertensive medication.

Attendance and compliance with an exercise program during localized breast cancer treatment in a randomized controlled trial: The PACT study.

PURPOSE: Maintaining high adherence rates (session attendance and compliance) in exercise programs during breast cancer treatment can be challenging. We aimed to identify adherence rates and predictors to an exercise program during adjuvant breast cancer treatment. METHODS: Ninety-two patients with localized breast cancer undergoing chemotherapy were randomly assigned to an 18-week supervised moderate-to-high intensity aerobic and resistance exercise program, including two 1-hour sessions/week. Additionally, participants were asked to be physically active for at least 30 minutes/day on at least three other days. We report median percentages for attendance, compliance with the prescribed duration and intensity of aerobic and muscle strength exercises, and the exercise advice given. Predictors included in univariate and multivariable linear regression models were demographical, tumor- and treatment-related factors, constructs of the theory of planned behavior, psychological and physical factors. RESULTS: Patients attended 83% (interquartile range: 69-91%) of the supervised sessions. Compliance with the duration of aerobic exercise, high-intensity aerobic exercise (cycling at the ventilatory threshold), muscle strength exercises and the exercise advice were 88%(64-97%), 50%(22-82%), 84%(65-94%) and 61%(33%-79%), respectively. Education, radiotherapy, BMI and physical fatigue were important predictors of adherence to supervised exercise. Beliefs about planned behaviors were important predictors, especially for compliance with the exercise advice. CONCLUSIONS: Attendance to and compliance with an 18-week aerobic and strength exercise program were high. The lowest compliance was found for high-intensity supervised aerobic exercise. The identified predictors should be considered when designing or adapting exercise programs for patients with localized breast cancer to increase adherence. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN43801571 Dutch Trial Register NTR2138.