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1.
Heliyon ; 10(9): e30470, 2024 May 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38726202

RESUMO

Coastal terrestrial-aquatic interfaces (TAIs) are crucial contributors to global biogeochemical cycles and carbon exchange. The soil carbon dioxide (CO2) efflux in these transition zones is however poorly understood due to the high spatiotemporal dynamics of TAIs, as various sub-ecosystems in this region are compressed and expanded by complex influences of tides, changes in river levels, climate, and land use. We focus on the Chesapeake Bay region to (i) investigate the spatial heterogeneity of the coastal ecosystem and identify spatial zones with similar environmental characteristics based on the spatial data layers, including vegetation phenology, climate, landcover, diversity, topography, soil property, and relative tidal elevation; (ii) understand the primary driving factors affecting soil respiration within sub-ecosystems of the coastal ecosystem. Specifically, we employed hierarchical clustering analysis to identify spatial regions with distinct environmental characteristics, followed by the determination of main driving factors using Random Forest regression and SHapley Additive exPlanations. Maximum and minimum temperature are the main drivers common to all sub-ecosystems, while each region also has additional unique major drivers that differentiate them from one another. Precipitation exerts an influence on vegetated lands, while soil pH value holds importance specifically in forested lands. In croplands characterized by high clay content and low sand content, the significant role is attributed to bulk density. Wetlands demonstrate the importance of both elevation and sand content, with clay content being more relevant in non-inundated wetlands than in inundated wetlands. The topographic wetness index significantly contributes to the mixed vegetation areas, including shrub, grass, pasture, and forest. Additionally, our research reveals that dense vegetation land covers and urban/developed areas exhibit distinct soil property drivers. Overall, our research demonstrates an efficient method of employing various open-source remote sensing and GIS datasets to comprehend the spatial variability and soil respiration mechanisms in coastal TAI. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to modeling carbon fluxes released by soil respiration in coastal TAIs, and our study highlights the importance of further research and monitoring practices to improve our understanding of carbon dynamics and promote the sustainable management of coastal TAIs.

3.
Sci Total Environ ; 871: 161974, 2023 May 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36740054

RESUMO

Understanding the temperature sensitivity (Q10) of soil respiration is critical for benchmarking the potential intensity of regional and global terrestrial soil carbon fluxes-climate feedbacks. Although field observations have demonstrated the strong spatial heterogeneity of Q10, a significant knowledge gap still exists regarding to the factors driving spatial and temporal variabilities of Q10 at regional scales. Therefore, we used a machine learning approach to predict Q10 from 1994 to 2016 with a spatial resolution of 1 km across China from 515 field observations at 5 cm soil depth using climate, soil and vegetation variables. Predicted Q10 varied from 1.54 to 4.17, with an area-weighted average of 2.52. There was no significant temporal trend for Q10 (p = 0.32), but annual vegetation production (indicated by normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) was positively correlated to it (p < 0.01). Spatially, soil organic carbon (SOC) was the most important driving factor in 62 % of the land area across China, and varied greatly, demonstrating soil controls on the spatial pattern of Q10. These findings highlighted different environmental controls on the spatial and temporal pattern of soil respiration Q10, which should be considered to improve global biogeochemical models used to predict the spatial and temporal patterns of soil carbon fluxes to ongoing climate change.

4.
Sci Data ; 9(1): 755, 2022 12 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36477373

RESUMO

Here we provide the 'Global Spectrum of Plant Form and Function Dataset', containing species mean values for six vascular plant traits. Together, these traits -plant height, stem specific density, leaf area, leaf mass per area, leaf nitrogen content per dry mass, and diaspore (seed or spore) mass - define the primary axes of variation in plant form and function. The dataset is based on ca. 1 million trait records received via the TRY database (representing ca. 2,500 original publications) and additional unpublished data. It provides 92,159 species mean values for the six traits, covering 46,047 species. The data are complemented by higher-level taxonomic classification and six categorical traits (woodiness, growth form, succulence, adaptation to terrestrial or aquatic habitats, nutrition type and leaf type). Data quality management is based on a probabilistic approach combined with comprehensive validation against expert knowledge and external information. Intense data acquisition and thorough quality control produced the largest and, to our knowledge, most accurate compilation of empirically observed vascular plant species mean traits to date.

5.
J Geophys Res Biogeosci ; 127(1): e2021JG006587, 2022 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35865142

RESUMO

Forests dominate the global terrestrial carbon budget, but their ability to continue doing so in the face of a changing climate is uncertain. A key uncertainty is how forests will respond to (resistance) and recover from (resilience) rising levels of disturbance of varying intensities. This knowledge gap can optimally be addressed by integrating manipulative field experiments with ecophysiological modeling. We used the Ecosystem Demography-2.2 (ED-2.2) model to project carbon fluxes for a northern temperate deciduous forest subjected to a real-world disturbance severity manipulation experiment. ED-2.2 was run for 150 years, starting from near bare ground in 1900 (approximating the clear-cut conditions at the time), and subjected to three disturbance treatments under an ensemble of climate conditions. Both disturbance severity and climate strongly affected carbon fluxes such as gross primary production (GPP), and interacted with one another. We then calculated resistance and resilience, two dimensions of ecosystem stability. Modeled GPP exhibited a two-fold decrease in mean resistance across disturbance severities of 45%, 65%, and 85% mortality; conversely, resilience increased by a factor of two with increasing disturbance severity. This pattern held for net primary production and net ecosystem production, indicating a trade-off in which greater initial declines were followed by faster recovery. Notably, however, heterotrophic respiration responded more slowly to disturbance, and it's highly variable response was affected by different drivers. This work provides insight into how future conditions might affect the functional stability of mature forests in this region under ongoing climate change and changing disturbance regimes.

6.
Glob Chang Biol ; 28(20): 5881-5900, 2022 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35689431

RESUMO

Observations of woody plant mortality in coastal ecosystems are globally widespread, but the overarching processes and underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. This knowledge deficiency, combined with rapidly changing water levels, storm surges, atmospheric CO2 , and vapor pressure deficit, creates large predictive uncertainty regarding how coastal ecosystems will respond to global change. Here, we synthesize the literature on the mechanisms that underlie coastal woody-plant mortality, with the goal of producing a testable hypothesis framework. The key emergent mechanisms underlying mortality include hypoxic, osmotic, and ionic-driven reductions in whole-plant hydraulic conductance and photosynthesis that ultimately drive the coupled processes of hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. The relative importance of these processes in driving mortality, their order of progression, and their degree of coupling depends on the characteristics of the anomalous water exposure, on topographic effects, and on taxa-specific variation in traits and trait acclimation. Greater inundation exposure could accelerate mortality globally; however, the interaction of changing inundation exposure with elevated CO2 , drought, and rising vapor pressure deficit could influence mortality likelihood. Models of coastal forests that incorporate the frequency and duration of inundation, the role of climatic drivers, and the processes of hydraulic failure and carbon starvation can yield improved estimates of inundation-induced woody-plant mortality.


Assuntos
Dióxido de Carbono , Ecossistema , Carbono , Secas , Árvores , Água
7.
Glob Chang Biol ; 28(17): 5254-5268, 2022 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35703577

RESUMO

Data capturing multiple axes of tree size and shape, such as a tree's stem diameter, height and crown size, underpin a wide range of ecological research-from developing and testing theory on forest structure and dynamics, to estimating forest carbon stocks and their uncertainties, and integrating remote sensing imagery into forest monitoring programmes. However, these data can be surprisingly hard to come by, particularly for certain regions of the world and for specific taxonomic groups, posing a real barrier to progress in these fields. To overcome this challenge, we developed the Tallo database, a collection of 498,838 georeferenced and taxonomically standardized records of individual trees for which stem diameter, height and/or crown radius have been measured. These data were collected at 61,856 globally distributed sites, spanning all major forested and non-forested biomes. The majority of trees in the database are identified to species (88%), and collectively Tallo includes data for 5163 species distributed across 1453 genera and 187 plant families. The database is publicly archived under a CC-BY 4.0 licence and can be access from: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6637599. To demonstrate its value, here we present three case studies that highlight how the Tallo database can be used to address a range of theoretical and applied questions in ecology-from testing the predictions of metabolic scaling theory, to exploring the limits of tree allometric plasticity along environmental gradients and modelling global variation in maximum attainable tree height. In doing so, we provide a key resource for field ecologists, remote sensing researchers and the modelling community working together to better understand the role that trees play in regulating the terrestrial carbon cycle.


Assuntos
Florestas , Árvores , Biomassa , Carbono/metabolismo , Ciclo do Carbono , Ecossistema , Árvores/fisiologia
8.
New Phytol ; 235(5): 1767-1779, 2022 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35644021

RESUMO

Increasing seawater exposure is killing coastal trees globally, with expectations of accelerating mortality with rising sea levels. However, the impact of concomitant changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) on seawater-induced tree mortality is uncertain. We examined the mechanisms of seawater-induced mortality under varying climate scenarios using a photosynthetic gain and hydraulic cost optimization model validated against observations in a mature stand of Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) trees in the Pacific Northwest, USA, that were dying from recent seawater exposure. The simulations matched well with observations of photosynthesis, transpiration, nonstructural carbohydrates concentrations, leaf water potential, the percentage loss of xylem conductivity, and stand-level mortality rates. The simulations suggest that seawater-induced mortality could decrease by c. 16.7% with increasing atmospheric CO2 levels due to reduced risk of carbon starvation. Conversely, rising VPD could increase mortality by c. 5.6% because of increasing risk of hydraulic failure. Across all scenarios, seawater-induced mortality was driven by hydraulic failure in the first 2 yr after seawater exposure began, with carbon starvation becoming more important in subsequent years. Changing CO2 and climate appear unlikely to have a significant impact on coastal tree mortality under rising sea levels.


Assuntos
Picea , Árvores , Carbono , Dióxido de Carbono/farmacologia , Água do Mar , Temperatura , Pressão de Vapor , Água
9.
Nat Commun ; 13(1): 1733, 2022 04 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35365658

RESUMO

The terrestrial carbon cycle is a major source of uncertainty in climate projections. Its dominant fluxes, gross primary productivity (GPP), and respiration (in particular soil respiration, RS), are typically estimated from independent satellite-driven models and upscaled in situ measurements, respectively. We combine carbon-cycle flux estimates and partitioning coefficients to show that historical estimates of global GPP and RS are irreconcilable. When we estimate GPP based on RS measurements and some assumptions about RS:GPP ratios, we found the resulted global GPP values (bootstrap mean [Formula: see text] Pg C yr-1) are significantly higher than most GPP estimates reported in the literature ([Formula: see text] Pg C yr-1). Similarly, historical GPP estimates imply a soil respiration flux (RsGPP, bootstrap mean of [Formula: see text] Pg C yr-1) statistically inconsistent with most published RS values ([Formula: see text] Pg C yr-1), although recent, higher, GPP estimates are narrowing this gap. Furthermore, global RS:GPP ratios are inconsistent with spatial averages of this ratio calculated from individual sites as well as CMIP6 model results. This discrepancy has implications for our understanding of carbon turnover times and the terrestrial sensitivity to climate change. Future efforts should reconcile the discrepancies associated with calculations for GPP and Rs to improve estimates of the global carbon budget.


Assuntos
Ciclo do Carbono , Mudança Climática , Carbono , Dióxido de Carbono , Respiração
10.
PNAS Nexus ; 1(5): pgac254, 2022 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36712352

RESUMO

Soil microbes ultimately drive the mineralization of soil organic carbon and thus ecosystem functions. We compiled a dataset of the seasonality of microbial biomass carbon (MBC) and developed a semi-mechanistic model to map monthly MBC across the globe. MBC exhibits an equatorially symmetric seasonality between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. In the Northern Hemisphere, MBC peaks in autumn and is minimal in spring at low latitudes (<25°N), peaks in the spring and is minimal in autumn at mid-latitudes (25°N to 50°N), while peaks in autumn and is minimal in spring at high latitudes (>50°N). This latitudinal shift of MBC seasonality is attributed to an interaction of soil temperature, soil moisture, and substrate availability. The MBC seasonality is inconsistent with patterns of heterotrophic respiration, indicating that MBC as a proxy for microbial activity is inappropriate at this resolution. This study highlights the need to explicitly represent microbial physiology in microbial models. The interactive controls of environments and substrate on microbial seasonality provide insights for better representing microbial mechanisms in simulating ecosystem functions at the seasonal scale.

11.
Sci Total Environ ; 798: 149273, 2021 Dec 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34378544

RESUMO

Belowground autotrophic respiration (RAsoil) depends on carbohydrates from photosynthesis flowing to roots and rhizospheres, and is one of the most important but least understood components in forest carbon cycling. Carbon allocation plays an important role in forest carbon cycling and reflects forest adaptation to changing environmental conditions. However, carbon allocation to RAsoil has not been fully examined at the global scale. To fill this knowledge gap, we first used a Random Forest algorithm to predict the spatio-temporal patterns of RAsoil from 1981 to 2017 based on the most updated Global Soil Respiration Database (v5) with global environmental variables; calculated carbon allocation from photosynthesis to RAsoil (CAB) as a fraction of gross primary production; and assessed its temporal and spatial patterns in global forest ecosystems. Globally, mean RAsoil from forests was 8.9 ± 0.08 Pg C yr-1 (mean ± standard deviation) from 1981 to 2017 and increased significantly at a rate of 0.006 Pg C yr-2, paralleling broader soil respiration changes and suggesting increasing carbon respired by roots. Mean CAB was 0.243 ± 0.016 and decreased over time. The temporal trend of CAB varied greatly in space, reflecting uneven responses of CAB to environmental changes. Combined with carbon use efficiency, our CAB results offer a completely independent approach to quantify global aboveground autotropic respiration spatially and temporally, and could provide crucial insights into carbon flux partitioning and global carbon cycling under climate change.


Assuntos
Carbono , Ecossistema , Ciclo do Carbono , Respiração , Solo , Árvores
12.
Glob Chang Biol ; 27(20): 5392-5403, 2021 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34241937

RESUMO

Microbially explicit models may improve understanding and projections of carbon dynamics in response to future climate change, but their fidelity in simulating global-scale soil heterotrophic respiration (RH ), a stringent test for soil biogeochemical models, has never been evaluated. We used statistical global RH products, as well as 7821 daily site-scale RH measurements, to evaluate the spatiotemporal performance of one first-order decay model (CASA-CNP) and two microbially explicit biogeochemical models (CORPSE and MIMICS) that were forced by two different input datasets. CORPSE and MIMICS did not provide any measurable performance improvement; instead, the models were highly sensitive to the input data used to drive them. Spatial variability in RH fluxes was generally well simulated except in the northern middle latitudes (~50°N) and arid regions; models captured the seasonal variability of RH well, but showed more divergence in tropic and arctic regions. Our results demonstrate that the next generation of biogeochemical models shows promise but also needs to be improved for realistic spatiotemporal variability of RH . Finally, we emphasize the importance of net primary production, soil moisture, and soil temperature inputs, and that jointly evaluating soil models for their spatial (global scale) and temporal (site scale) performance provides crucial benchmarks for improving biogeochemical models.


Assuntos
Ciclo do Carbono , Solo , Carbono , Processos Heterotróficos , Respiração
13.
Ecol Appl ; 31(7): e02417, 2021 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34278647

RESUMO

Many secondary deciduous forests of eastern North America are approaching a transition in which mature early-successional trees are declining, resulting in an uncertain future for this century-long carbon (C) sink. We initiated the Forest Accelerated Succession Experiment (FASET) at the University of Michigan Biological Station to examine the patterns and mechanisms underlying forest C cycling following the stem girdling-induced mortality of >6,700 early-successional Populus spp. (aspen) and Betula papyrifera (paper birch). Meteorological flux tower-based C cycling observations from the 33-ha treatment forest have been paired with those from a nearby unmanipulated forest since 2008. Following over a decade of observations, we revisit our core hypothesis: that net ecosystem production (NEP) would increase following the transition to mid-late-successional species dominance due to increased canopy structural complexity. Supporting our hypothesis, NEP was stable, briefly declined, and then increased relative to the control in the decade following disturbance; however, increasing NEP was not associated with rising structural complexity but rather with a rapid 1-yr recovery of total leaf area index as mid-late-successional Acer, Quercus, and Pinus assumed canopy dominance. The transition to mid-late-successional species dominance improved carbon-use efficiency (CUE = NEP/gross primary production) as ecosystem respiration declined. Similar soil respiration rates in control and treatment forests, along with species differences in leaf physiology and the rising relative growth rates of mid-late-successional species in the treatment forest, suggest changes in aboveground plant respiration and growth were primarily responsible for increases in NEP. We conclude that deciduous forests transitioning from early to middle succession are capable of sustained or increased NEP, even when experiencing extensive tree mortality. This adds to mounting evidence that aging deciduous forests in the region will function as C sinks for decades to come.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Pinus , Carbono , Florestas , Árvores
14.
Glob Chang Biol ; 27(16): 3923-3938, 2021 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33934461

RESUMO

Soil respiration (Rs), the efflux of CO2 from soils to the atmosphere, is a major component of the terrestrial carbon cycle, but is poorly constrained from regional to global scales. The global soil respiration database (SRDB) is a compilation of in situ Rs observations from around the globe that has been consistently updated with new measurements over the past decade. It is unclear whether the addition of data to new versions has produced better-constrained global Rs estimates. We compared two versions of the SRDB (v3.0 n = 5173 and v5.0 n = 10,366) to determine how additional data influenced global Rs annual sum, spatial patterns and associated uncertainty (1 km spatial resolution) using a machine learning approach. A quantile regression forest model parameterized using SRDBv3 yielded a global Rs sum of 88.6 Pg C year-1 , and associated uncertainty of 29.9 (mean absolute error) and 57.9 (standard deviation) Pg C year-1 , whereas parameterization using SRDBv5 yielded 96.5 Pg C year-1 and associated uncertainty of 30.2 (mean average error) and 73.4 (standard deviation) Pg C year-1 . Empirically estimated global heterotrophic respiration (Rh) from v3 and v5 were 49.9-50.2 (mean 50.1) and 53.3-53.5 (mean 53.4) Pg C year-1 , respectively. SRDBv5's inclusion of new data from underrepresented regions (e.g., Asia, Africa, South America) resulted in overall higher model uncertainty. The largest differences between models parameterized with different SRDVB versions were in arid/semi-arid regions. The SRDBv5 is still biased toward northern latitudes and temperate zones, so we tested an optimized global distribution of Rs measurements, which resulted in a global sum of 96.4 ± 21.4 Pg C year-1 with an overall lower model uncertainty. These results support current global estimates of Rs but highlight spatial biases that influence model parameterization and interpretation and provide insights for design of environmental networks to improve global-scale Rs estimates.


Assuntos
Respiração , Solo , África , Ásia , Viés , Carbono/análise , América do Sul
15.
Glob Chang Biol ; 27(12): 2840-2855, 2021 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33651480

RESUMO

Carbon (C) fixation, allocation, and metabolism by trees set the basis for energy and material flows in forest ecosystems and define their interactions with Earth's changing climate. However, while many studies have considered variation in productivity with latitude and climate, we lack a cohesive synthesis on how forest carbon fluxes vary globally with respect to climate and one another. Here, we draw upon 1,319 records from the Global Forest Carbon Database, representing all major forest types and the nine most significant autotrophic carbon fluxes, to comprehensively review how annual C cycling in mature, undisturbed forests varies with latitude and climate on a global scale. Across all flux variables analyzed, rates of C cycling decreased continuously with absolute latitude-a finding that confirms multiple previous studies and contradicts the idea that net primary productivity of temperate forests rivals that of tropical forests. C flux variables generally displayed similar trends across latitude and multiple climate variables, with no differences in allocation detected at this global scale. Temperature variables in general, and mean annual temperature or temperature seasonality in particular, were the best single predictors of C flux, explaining 19%-71% of variation in the C fluxes analyzed. The effects of temperature were modified by moisture availability, with C flux reduced under hot and dry conditions and sometimes under very high precipitation. Annual C fluxes increased with growing season length and were also influenced by growing season climate. These findings clarify how forest C flux varies with latitude and climate on a global scale. In an era when forests will play a critical yet uncertain role in shaping Earth's rapidly changing climate, our synthesis provides a foundation for understanding global patterns in forest C cycling.


Assuntos
Ciclo do Carbono , Ecossistema , Carbono , Dióxido de Carbono , Florestas , Árvores
16.
PLoS One ; 15(12): e0232506, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33382711

RESUMO

Specific leaf area (SLA, leaf area per unit dry mass) is a key canopy structural characteristic, a measure of photosynthetic capacity, and an important input into many terrestrial process models. Although many studies have examined SLA variation, relatively few data exist from high latitude, climate-sensitive permafrost regions. We measured SLA and soil and topographic properties across a boreal forest permafrost transition, in which dominant tree species changed as permafrost deepened from 54 to >150 cm over 75 m hillslope transects in Caribou-Poker Creeks Research Watershed, Alaska. We characterized both linear and threshold relationships between topographic and edaphic variables and SLA and developed a conceptual model of these relationships. We found that the depth of the soil active layer above permafrost was significantly and positively correlated with SLA for both coniferous and deciduous boreal tree species. Intraspecific SLA variation was associated with a fivefold increase in net primary production, suggesting that changes in active layer depth due to permafrost thaw could strongly influence ecosystem productivity. While this is an exploratory study to begin understanding SLA variation in a non-contiguous permafrost system, our results indicate the need for more extensive evaluation across larger spatial domains. These empirical relationships and associated uncertainty can be incorporated into ecosystem models that use dynamic traits, improving our ability to predict ecosystem-level carbon cycling responses to ongoing climate change.


Assuntos
Modelos Estatísticos , Folhas de Planta/fisiologia , Solo/química , Taiga , Traqueófitas/fisiologia , Árvores/fisiologia , Biomassa , Ciclo do Carbono/fisiologia , Mudança Climática , Ecossistema , Pergelissolo
17.
Glob Chang Biol ; 26(12): 7268-7283, 2020 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33026137

RESUMO

Globally, soils store two to three times as much carbon as currently resides in the atmosphere, and it is critical to understand how soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and uptake will respond to ongoing climate change. In particular, the soil-to-atmosphere CO2 flux, commonly though imprecisely termed soil respiration (RS ), is one of the largest carbon fluxes in the Earth system. An increasing number of high-frequency RS measurements (typically, from an automated system with hourly sampling) have been made over the last two decades; an increasing number of methane measurements are being made with such systems as well. Such high frequency data are an invaluable resource for understanding GHG fluxes, but lack a central database or repository. Here we describe the lightweight, open-source COSORE (COntinuous SOil REspiration) database and software, that focuses on automated, continuous and long-term GHG flux datasets, and is intended to serve as a community resource for earth sciences, climate change syntheses and model evaluation. Contributed datasets are mapped to a single, consistent standard, with metadata on contributors, geographic location, measurement conditions and ancillary data. The design emphasizes the importance of reproducibility, scientific transparency and open access to data. While being oriented towards continuously measured RS , the database design accommodates other soil-atmosphere measurements (e.g. ecosystem respiration, chamber-measured net ecosystem exchange, methane fluxes) as well as experimental treatments (heterotrophic only, etc.). We give brief examples of the types of analyses possible using this new community resource and describe its accompanying R software package.


Assuntos
Gases de Efeito Estufa , Atmosfera , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Ecossistema , Gases de Efeito Estufa/análise , Metano/análise , Óxido Nitroso/análise , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Respiração , Solo
18.
Glob Chang Biol ; 26(11): 6080-6096, 2020 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32846039

RESUMO

Secondary forest regrowth shapes community succession and biogeochemistry for decades, including in the Upper Great Lakes region. Vegetation models encapsulate our understanding of forest function, and whether models can reproduce multi-decadal succession patterns is an indication of our ability to predict forest responses to future change. We test the ability of a vegetation model to simulate C cycling and community composition during 100 years of forest regrowth following stand-replacing disturbance, asking (a) Which processes and parameters are most important to accurately model Upper Midwest forest succession? (b) What is the relative importance of model structure versus parameter values to these predictions? We ran ensembles of the Ecosystem Demography model v2.2 with different representations of processes important to competition for light. We compared the magnitude of structural and parameter uncertainty and assessed which sub-model-parameter combinations best reproduced observed C fluxes and community composition. On average, our simulations underestimated observed net primary productivity (NPP) and leaf area index (LAI) after 100 years and predicted complete dominance by a single plant functional type (PFT). Out of 4,000 simulations, only nine fell within the observed range of both NPP and LAI, but these predicted unrealistically complete dominance by either early hardwood or pine PFTs. A different set of seven simulations were ecologically plausible but under-predicted observed NPP and LAI. Parameter uncertainty was large; NPP and LAI ranged from ~0% to >200% of their mean value, and any PFT could become dominant. The two parameters that contributed most to uncertainty in predicted NPP were plant-soil water conductance and growth respiration, both unobservable empirical coefficients. We conclude that (a) parameter uncertainty is more important than structural uncertainty, at least for ED-2.2 in Upper Midwest forests and (b) simulating both productivity and plant community composition accurately without physically unrealistic parameters remains challenging for demographic vegetation models.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Florestas , Carbono/análise , Great Lakes Region , Árvores , Incerteza
19.
Nat Commun ; 11(1): 2458, 2020 05 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32424260

RESUMO

Between the land and ocean, diverse coastal ecosystems transform, store, and transport material. Across these interfaces, the dynamic exchange of energy and matter is driven by hydrological and hydrodynamic processes such as river and groundwater discharge, tides, waves, and storms. These dynamics regulate ecosystem functions and Earth's climate, yet global models lack representation of coastal processes and related feedbacks, impeding their predictions of coastal and global responses to change. Here, we assess existing coastal monitoring networks and regional models, existing challenges in these efforts, and recommend a path towards development of global models that more robustly reflect the coastal interface.

20.
Science ; 368(6494)2020 05 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32467364

RESUMO

Forest dynamics arise from the interplay of environmental drivers and disturbances with the demographic processes of recruitment, growth, and mortality, subsequently driving biomass and species composition. However, forest disturbances and subsequent recovery are shifting with global changes in climate and land use, altering these dynamics. Changes in environmental drivers, land use, and disturbance regimes are forcing forests toward younger, shorter stands. Rising carbon dioxide, acclimation, adaptation, and migration can influence these impacts. Recent developments in Earth system models support increasingly realistic simulations of vegetation dynamics. In parallel, emerging remote sensing datasets promise qualitatively new and more abundant data on the underlying processes and consequences for vegetation structure. When combined, these advances hold promise for improving the scientific understanding of changes in vegetation demographics and disturbances.


Assuntos
Aclimatação , Biomassa , Mudança Climática , Florestas , Árvores/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Modelos Biológicos
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