Establishing RTS,S/AS01 as a benchmark for comparison to next-generation malaria vaccines in a mouse model.

New strategies are needed to reduce the incidence of malaria, and promising approaches include vaccines targeting the circumsporozoite protein (CSP). To improve upon the malaria vaccine, RTS,S/AS01, it is essential to standardize preclinical assays to measure the potency of next-generation vaccines against this benchmark. We focus on RTS,S/AS01-induced antibody responses and functional activity in conjunction with robust statistical analyses. Transgenic Plasmodium berghei sporozoites containing full-length P. falciparum CSP (tgPb-PfCSP) allow two assessments of efficacy: quantitative reduction in liver infection following intravenous challenge, and sterile protection from mosquito bite challenge. Two or three doses of RTS,S/AS01 were given intramuscularly at 3-week intervals, with challenge 2-weeks after the last vaccination. Minimal inter- and intra-assay variability indicates the reproducibility of the methods. Importantly, the range of this model is suitable for screening more potent vaccines. Levels of induced anti-CSP antibody 2A10 equivalency were also associated with activity: 105 µg/mL (95% CI: 68.8, 141) reduced liver infection by 50%, whereas 285 µg/mL (95% CI: 166, 404) is required for 50% sterile protection from mosquito bite challenge. Additionally, the liver burden model was able to differentiate between protected and non-protected human plasma samples from a controlled human malaria infection study, supporting these models' relevance and predictive capability. Comparison in animal models of CSP-based vaccine candidates to RTS,S/AS01 is now possible under well controlled conditions. Assessment of the quality of induced antibodies, likely a determinant of durability of protection in humans, should be possible using these methods.

A first-in-human germline-targeting HIV nanoparticle vaccine induced broad and publicly targeted helper T cell responses.

The engineered outer domain germline targeting version 8 (eOD-GT8) 60-mer nanoparticle was designed to prime VRC01-class HIV-specific B cells that would need to be matured, through additional heterologous immunizations, into B cells that are able to produce broadly neutralizing antibodies. CD4 T cell help will be critical for the development of such high-affinity neutralizing antibody responses. Thus, we assessed the induction and epitope specificities of the vaccine-specific T cells from the IAVI G001 phase 1 clinical trial that tested immunization with eOD-GT8 60-mer adjuvanted with AS01B. Robust polyfunctional CD4 T cells specific for eOD-GT8 and the lumazine synthase (LumSyn) component of eOD-GT8 60-mer were induced after two vaccinations with either the 20- or 100-microgram dose. Antigen-specific CD4 T helper responses to eOD-GT8 and LumSyn were observed in 84 and 93% of vaccine recipients, respectively. CD4 helper T cell epitope "hotspots" preferentially targeted across participants were identified within both the eOD-GT8 and LumSyn proteins. CD4 T cell responses specific to one of these three LumSyn epitope hotspots were observed in 85% of vaccine recipients. Last, we found that induction of vaccine-specific peripheral CD4 T cells correlated with expansion of eOD-GT8-specific memory B cells. Our findings demonstrate strong human CD4 T cell responses to an HIV vaccine candidate priming immunogen and identify immunodominant CD4 T cell epitopes that might improve human immune responses either to heterologous boost immunogens after this prime vaccination or to other human vaccine immunogens.

Comparing antibody assays as correlates of protection against COVID-19 in the COVE mRNA-1273 vaccine efficacy trial.

The best assay or marker to define mRNA-1273 vaccine-induced antibodies as a correlate of protection (CoP) is unclear. In the COVE trial, participants received two doses of the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine or placebo. We previously assessed IgG binding antibodies to the spike protein (spike IgG) or receptor binding domain (RBD IgG) and pseudovirus neutralizing antibody 50 or 80% inhibitory dilution titer measured on day 29 or day 57, as correlates of risk (CoRs) and CoPs against symptomatic COVID-19 over 4 months after dose. Here, we assessed a new marker, live virus 50% microneutralization titer (LV-MN50), and compared and combined markers in multivariable analyses. LV-MN50 was an inverse CoR, with a hazard ratio of 0.39 (95% confidence interval, 0.19 to 0.83) at day 29 and 0.51 (95% confidence interval, 0.25 to 1.04) at day 57 per 10-fold increase. In multivariable analyses, pseudovirus neutralization titers and anti-spike binding antibodies performed best as CoRs; combining antibody markers did not improve correlates. Pseudovirus neutralization titer was the strongest independent correlate in a multivariable model. Overall, these results supported pseudovirus neutralizing and binding antibody assays as CoRs and CoPs, with the live virus assay as a weaker correlate in this sample set. Day 29 markers performed as well as day 57 markers as CoPs, which could accelerate immunogenicity and immunobridging studies.

Risk Factors Associated with HIV Acquisition in Males Participating in HIV Vaccine Efficacy Trials in South Africa.

In South Africa, HIV acquisition risk has been studied less in people assigned male at birth. We studied the associations between risk behaviors, clinical features and HIV incidence amongst males in two South African HIV preventive vaccine efficacy trials. We used Cox proportional hazards models to test for associations between demographics, sexual behaviors, clinical variables and HIV acquisition among males followed in the HVTN 503 (n = 219) and HVTN 702 (n = 1611) trials. Most males reported no male sexual partners (99.09% in HVTN 503) or identified as heterosexual (88.08% in HVTN 702). Annual HIV incidence was 1.39% in HVTN 503 (95% CI 0.76-2.32%) and 1.33% in HVTN 702 (95% CI 0.80-2.07%). Increased HIV acquisition was significantly associated with anal sex (HR 6.32, 95% CI 3.44-11.62), transactional sex (HR 3.42, 95% CI 1.80-6.50), and non-heterosexual identity (HR 16.23, 95%CI 8.13-32.41) in univariate analyses and non-heterosexual identity (HR 14.99, 95% CI 4.99-45.04; p < 0.01) in multivariate analysis. It is appropriate that prevention efforts in South Africa, although focused on the severe epidemic in young women, also encompass key male populations, including men who have sex with men, but also men who engage in anal or transactional sex.

Immune correlates analysis of a phase 3 trial of the AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) vaccine.

In the phase 3 trial of the AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) vaccine conducted in the U.S., Chile, and Peru, anti-spike binding IgG concentration (spike IgG) and pseudovirus 50% neutralizing antibody titer (nAb ID50) measured four weeks after two doses were assessed as correlates of risk and protection against PCR-confirmed symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (COVID-19). These analyses of SARS-CoV-2 negative participants were based on case-cohort sampling of vaccine recipients (33 COVID-19 cases by 4 months post dose two, 463 non-cases). The adjusted hazard ratio of COVID-19 was 0.32 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.76) per 10-fold increase in spike IgG concentration and 0.28 (0.10, 0.77) per 10-fold increase in nAb ID50 titer. At nAb ID50 below the limit of detection (< 2.612 IU50/ml), 10, 100, and 270 IU50/ml, vaccine efficacy was -5.8% (-651%, 75.6%), 64.9% (56.4%, 86.9%), 90.0% (55.8%, 97.6%) and 94.2% (69.4%, 99.1%). These findings provide further evidence towards defining an immune marker correlate of protection to help guide regulatory/approval decisions for COVID-19 vaccines.

Antibody Correlates of Protection From Severe Respiratory Syncytial Virus Disease in a Vaccine Efficacy Trial.

Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) can cause serious lung infections in young children and there is currently no available vaccine. Methods: We used complementary statistical frameworks to analyze 4 RSV serology measurements in mothers and their infants in South Africa who participated in a phase 3 maternal immunization trial of an RSV F protein nanoparticle vaccine as correlates of risk and of protection against different RSV disease endpoints. Results: We found evidence to support each antibody measurement-encompassing RSV-neutralizing antibodies and F surface glycoprotein-binding antibodies-as an inverse correlate of risk of RSV-associated acute lower respiratory tract infection with severe hypoxia in at least 1 framework, with vaccine-induced fold-rise from the maternal enrollment to day 14 samples of anti-F immunoglobulin G (IgG) binding antibodies having the most consistent evidence. This evidence includes a significant association of fold-rise anti-F IgG with vaccine efficacy (VE); achieving a baseline covariate-adjusted VE of 75% requires a vaccine-induced maternal anti-F IgG fold-rise of around 16. Neither multivariable logistic regression nor superlearning analyses showed benefit to including multiple time points or assays in the same model, suggesting a parsimonious correlate. Post hoc exploratory analyses supported adherence of vaccine-induced maternal anti-F IgG fold-rise to the Prentice criteria for a valid surrogate endpoint. Conclusions: Our results suggest that the vaccine induced protective anti-F antibody responses. If this finding is confirmed, VE could potentially be augmented by increasing these responses.

Immune correlates analysis of the PREVENT-19 COVID-19 vaccine efficacy clinical trial.

In the PREVENT-19 phase 3 trial of the NVX-CoV2373 vaccine (NCT04611802), anti-spike binding IgG concentration (spike IgG), anti-RBD binding IgG concentration (RBD IgG), and pseudovirus 50% neutralizing antibody titer (nAb ID50) measured two weeks post-dose two are assessed as correlates of risk and as correlates of protection against COVID-19. Analyses are conducted in the U.S. cohort of baseline SARS-CoV-2 negative per-protocol participants using a case-cohort design that measures the markers from all 12 vaccine recipient breakthrough COVID-19 cases starting 7 days post antibody measurement and from 639 vaccine recipient non-cases. All markers are inversely associated with COVID-19 risk and directly associated with vaccine efficacy. In vaccine recipients with nAb ID50 titers of 50, 100, and 7230 international units (IU50)/ml, vaccine efficacy estimates are 75.7% (49.8%, 93.2%), 81.7% (66.3%, 93.2%), and 96.8% (88.3%, 99.3%). The results support potential cross-vaccine platform applications of these markers for guiding decisions about vaccine approval and use.

Immune correlates analysis of the ENSEMBLE single Ad26.COV2.S dose vaccine efficacy clinical trial.

Measuring immune correlates of disease acquisition and protection in the context of a clinical trial is a prerequisite for improved vaccine design. We analysed binding and neutralizing antibody measurements 4 weeks post vaccination as correlates of risk of moderate to severe-critical COVID-19 through 83 d post vaccination in the phase 3, double-blind placebo-controlled phase of ENSEMBLE, an international randomized efficacy trial of a single dose of Ad26.COV2.S. We also evaluated correlates of protection in the trial cohort. Of the three antibody immune markers we measured, we found most support for 50% inhibitory dilution (ID50) neutralizing antibody titre as a correlate of risk and of protection. The outcome hazard ratio was 0.49 (95% confidence interval 0.29, 0.81; P = 0.006) per 10-fold increase in ID50; vaccine efficacy was 60% (43%, 72%) at non-quantifiable ID50 (<2.7 IU50 ml-1) and increased to 89% (78%, 96%) at ID50 = 96.3 IU50 ml-1. Comparison of the vaccine efficacy by ID50 titre curves for ENSEMBLE-US, the COVE trial of the mRNA-1273 vaccine and the COV002-UK trial of the AZD1222 vaccine supported the ID50 titre as a correlate of protection across trials and vaccine types.

Evaluation of a transcriptomic signature of tuberculosis risk in combination with an interferon gamma release assay: A diagnostic test accuracy study.

Background: We evaluated the diagnostic and prognostic performance of a transcriptomic signature of tuberculosis (TB) risk (RISK11) and QuantiFERON-TB Gold-plus (QFTPlus) as combination biomarkers of TB risk. Methods: Healthy South Africans who were HIV-negative aged 18-60 years with baseline RISK11 and QFTPlus results were evaluated in a prospective cohort study conducted between Sept 20, 2016 and Dec 20, 2019. Prevalence and incidence-rate ratios were used to evaluate risk of TB. Positive (LR+) and negative (LR-) likelihood ratios were used to compare individual tests versus Both-Positive (RISK11+/QFTPlus+) and Either-Positive (RISK11+ or QFTPlus+) combinations. Findings: Among 2912 participants, prevalent TB in RISK11+/QFTPlus+ participants was 13·3-fold (95% CI 4·2-42·7) higher than RISK11-/QFTPlus-; 2·4-fold (95% CI 1·2-4·8) higher than RISK11+/QFTPlus-; and 4·5-fold (95% CI 2·5-8·0) higher than RISK11-/QFTPlus+ participants. Risk of incident TB in RISK11+/QFTPlus+ participants was 8·3-fold (95% CI 2·5-27·0) higher than RISK11-/QFTPlus-; 2·5-fold (95% CI 1·0-6·6) higher than RISK11+/QFTPlus-; and 2·1-fold (95% CI 1·2-3·4) higher than RISK11-/QFTPlus+ participants, respectively. Compared to QFTPlus, the Both-Positive test combination increased diagnostic LR+ from 1·3 (95% CI 1·2-1·5) to 4·7 (95% CI 3·2-7·0), and prognostic LR+ from 1·4 (95% CI 1·2-1·5) to 2·8 (95% CI 1·5-5·1), but did not improve upon RISK11 alone. Compared with RISK11, the Either-Positive test combination decreased diagnostic LR- from 0·7 (95% CI 0·6-0·9) to 0·3 (95% CI 0·2-0·6), and prognostic LR- from 0·9 (95% CI 0·8-1·0) to 0·3 (0·1-0·7), but did not improve upon QFTPlus alone. Interpretation: Combining two tests such as RISK11 and QFTPlus, with discordant individual performance characteristics does not improve overall discriminatory performance, relative to the individual tests. Funding: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, South African Medical Research Council.

Immune Correlates Analysis of a Single Ad26.COV2.S Dose in the ENSEMBLE COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Clinical Trial.

Anti-spike IgG binding antibody, anti-receptor binding domain IgG antibody, and pseudovirus neutralizing antibody measurements four weeks post-vaccination were assessed as correlates of risk of moderate to severe-critical COVID-19 outcomes through 83 days post-vaccination and as correlates of protection following a single dose of Ad26.COV2.S COVID-19 vaccine in the placebo-controlled phase of ENSEMBLE, an international, randomized efficacy trial. Each marker had evidence as a correlate of risk and of protection, with strongest evidence for 50% inhibitory dilution (ID50) neutralizing antibody titer. The outcome hazard ratio was 0.49 (95% confidence interval 0.29, 0.81; p=0.006) per 10-fold increase in ID50; vaccine efficacy was 60% (43, 72%) at nonquantifiable ID50 (< 2.7 IU50/ml) and rose to 89% (78, 96%) at ID50 = 96.3 IU50/ml. Comparison of the vaccine efficacy by ID50 titer curves for ENSEMBLE-US, the COVE trial of the mRNA-1273 vaccine, and the COV002-UK trial of the AZD1222 vaccine supported consistency of the ID50 titer correlate of protection across trials and vaccine types.

The effect of host factors on discriminatory performance of a transcriptomic signature of tuberculosis risk.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to understand host factors that affect discriminatory performance of a transcriptomic signature of tuberculosis risk (RISK11). METHODS: HIV-negative adults aged 18-60 years were evaluated in a prospective study of RISK11 and surveilled for tuberculosis through 15 months. Generalised linear models and receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) regression were used to estimate effect of host factors on RISK11 score (%marginal effect) and on discriminatory performance for tuberculosis disease (area under the curve, AUC), respectively. FINDINGS: Among 2923 participants including 74 prevalent and 56 incident tuberculosis cases, percentage marginal effects on RISK11 score were increased among those with prevalent tuberculosis (+18·90%, 95%CI 12·66-25·13), night sweats (+14·65%, 95%CI 5·39-23·91), incident tuberculosis (+7·29%, 95%CI 1·46-13·11), flu-like symptoms (+5·13%, 95%CI 1·58-8·68), and smoking history (+2·41%, 95%CI 0·89-3·93) than those without; and reduced in males (-6·68%, 95%CI -8·31- -5·04) and with every unit increase in BMI (-0·13%, 95%CI -0·25- -0·01). Adjustment for host factors affecting controls did not change RISK11 discriminatory performance. Cough was associated with 72·55% higher RISK11 score in prevalent tuberculosis cases. Stratification by cough improved diagnostic performance from AUC = 0·74 (95%CI 0·67-0·82) overall, to 0·97 (95%CI 0·90-1·00, p < 0·001) in cough-positive participants. Combining host factors with RISK11 improved prognostic performance, compared to RISK11 alone, (AUC = 0·76, 95%CI 0·69-0·83 versus 0·56, 95%CI 0·46-0·68, p < 0·001) over a 15-month predictive horizon. INTERPRETATION: Several host factors affected RISK11 score, but only adjustment for cough affected diagnostic performance. Combining host factors with RISK11 should be considered to improve prognostic performance. FUNDING: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, South African Medical Research Council.

Selection of HIV Envelope Strains for Standardized Assessments of Vaccine-Elicited Antibody-Dependent Cellular Cytotoxicity-Mediating Antibodies.

Antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) has been correlated with reduced risk of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection in several preclinical vaccine trials and in the RV144 clinical trial, indicating that this is a relevant antibody function to study. Given the diversity of HIV-1, the breadth of vaccine-induced antibody responses is a critical parameter to understand if a universal vaccine is to be realized. Moreover, the breadth of ADCC responses can be influenced by different vaccine strategies and regimens, including adjuvants. Therefore, to accurately evaluate ADCC and to compare vaccine regimens, it is important to understand the range of HIV Envelope (Env) susceptibility to these responses. These evaluations have been limited because of the complexity of the assay and the lack of a comprehensive panel of viruses for the assessment of these humoral responses. Here, we used 29 HIV-1 infectious molecular clones (IMCs) representing different Envelope subtypes and circulating recombinant forms to characterize susceptibility to ADCC from antibodies in plasma from infected individuals, including 13 viremic individuals, 10 controllers, and six with broadly neutralizing antibody responses. We found in our panel that ADCC susceptibility of the IMCs in our panel did not cluster by subtype, infectivity, level of CD4 downregulation, level of shedding, or neutralization sensitivity. Using partitioning around medoids (PAM) clustering to distinguish smaller groups of IMCs with similar ADCC susceptibility, we identified nested panels of four to eight IMCs that broadly represent the ADCC susceptibility of the entire 29-IMC panel. These panels, together with reagents developed to specifically accommodate circulating viruses at the geographical sites of vaccine trials, will provide a powerful tool to harmonize ADCC data generated across different studies and to detect common themes of ADCC responses elicited by various vaccines. IMPORTANCE Antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) responses were found to correlate with reduced risk of infection in the RV144 trial of the only human HIV-1 vaccine to show any efficacy to date. However, reagents to understand the breadth and magnitude of these responses across preclinical and clinical vaccine trials remain underdeveloped. In this study, we characterize HIV-1 infectious molecular clones encoding 29 distinct Envelope strains (Env-IMCs) to understand factors that impact virus susceptibility to ADCC and use statistical methods to identify smaller nested panels of four to eight Env-IMCs that accurately represent the full set. These reagents can be used as standardized reagents across studies to fully understand how ADCC may affect efficacy of future vaccine studies and how studies differ in the breadth of responses developed.

Immune correlates analysis of the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine efficacy clinical trial.

In the coronavirus efficacy (COVE) phase 3 clinical trial, vaccine recipients were assessed for neutralizing and binding antibodies as correlates of risk for COVID-19 disease and as correlates of protection. These immune markers were measured at the time of second vaccination and 4 weeks later, with values reported in standardized World Health Organization international units. All markers were inversely associated with COVID-19 risk and directly associated with vaccine efficacy. Vaccine recipients with postvaccination 50% neutralization titers 10, 100, and 1000 had estimated vaccine efficacies of 78% (95% confidence interval, 54 to 89%), 91% (87 to 94%), and 96% (94 to 98%), respectively. These results help define immune marker correlates of protection and may guide approval decisions for messenger RNA (mRNA) COVID-19 vaccines and other COVID-19 vaccines.

Immune Correlates Analysis of the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Trial.

BACKGROUND: In the Coronavirus Efficacy (COVE) trial, estimated mRNA-1273 vaccine efficacy against coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) was 94%. SARS-CoV-2 antibody measurements were assessed as correlates of COVID-19 risk and as correlates of protection. METHODS: Through case-cohort sampling, participants were selected for measurement of four serum antibody markers at Day 1 (first dose), Day 29 (second dose), and Day 57: IgG binding antibodies (bAbs) to Spike, bAbs to Spike receptor-binding domain (RBD), and 50% and 80% inhibitory dilution pseudovirus neutralizing antibody titers calibrated to the WHO International Standard (cID50 and cID80). Participants with no evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection were included. Cox regression assessed in vaccine recipients the association of each Day 29 or 57 serologic marker with COVID-19 through 126 or 100 days of follow-up, respectively, adjusting for risk factors. RESULTS: Day 57 Spike IgG, RBD IgG, cID50, and cID80 neutralization levels were each inversely correlated with risk of COVID-19: hazard ratios 0.66 (95% CI 0.50, 0.88; p=0.005); 0.57 (0.40, 0.82; p=0.002); 0.42 (0.27, 0.65; p<0.001); 0.35 (0.20, 0.61; p<0.001) per 10-fold increase in marker level, respectively, multiplicity adjusted P-values 0.003-0.010. Results were similar for Day 29 markers (multiplicity adjusted P-values <0.001-0.003). For vaccine recipients with Day 57 reciprocal cID50 neutralization titers that were undetectable (<2.42), 100, or 1000, respectively, cumulative incidence of COVID-19 through 100 days post Day 57 was 0.030 (0.010, 0.093), 0.0056 (0.0039, 0.0080), and 0.0023 (0.0013, 0.0036). For vaccine recipients at these titer levels, respectively, vaccine efficacy was 50.8% (-51.2, 83.0%), 90.7% (86.7, 93.6%), and 96.1% (94.0, 97.8%). Causal mediation analysis estimated that the proportion of vaccine efficacy mediated through Day 29 cID50 titer was 68.5% (58.5, 78.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Binding and neutralizing antibodies correlated with COVID-19 risk and vaccine efficacy and likely have utility in predicting mRNA-1273 vaccine efficacy against COVID-19. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: COVE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04470427.

Validation of a host blood transcriptomic biomarker for pulmonary tuberculosis in people living with HIV: a prospective diagnostic and prognostic accuracy study.

BACKGROUND: A rapid, blood-based triage test that allows targeted investigation for tuberculosis at the point of care could shorten the time to tuberculosis treatment and reduce mortality. We aimed to test the performance of a host blood transcriptomic signature (RISK11) in diagnosing tuberculosis and predicting progression to active pulmonary disease (prognosis) in people with HIV in a community setting. METHODS: In this prospective diagnostic and prognostic accuracy study, adults (aged 18-59 years) with HIV were recruited from five communities in South Africa. Individuals with a history of tuberculosis or household exposure to multidrug-resistant tuberculosis within the past 3 years, comorbid risk factors for tuberculosis, or any condition that would interfere with the study were excluded. RISK11 status was assessed at baseline by real-time PCR; participants and study staff were masked to the result. Participants underwent active surveillance for microbiologically confirmed tuberculosis by providing spontaneously expectorated sputum samples at baseline, if symptomatic during 15 months of follow-up, and at 15 months (the end of the study). The coprimary outcomes were the prevalence and cumulative incidence of tuberculosis disease confirmed by a positive Xpert MTB/RIF, Xpert Ultra, or Mycobacteria Growth Indicator Tube culture, or a combination of such, on at least two separate sputum samples collected within any 30-day period. FINDINGS: Between March 22, 2017, and May 15, 2018, 963 participants were assessed for eligibility and 861 were enrolled. Among 820 participants with valid RISK11 results, eight (1%) had prevalent tuberculosis at baseline: seven (2·5%; 95% CI 1·2-5·0) of 285 RISK11-positive participants and one (0·2%; 0·0-1·1) of 535 RISK11-negative participants. The relative risk (RR) of prevalent tuberculosis was 13·1 times (95% CI 2·1-81·6) greater in RISK11-positive participants than in RISK11-negative participants. RISK11 had a diagnostic area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 88·2% (95% CI 77·6-96·7), and a sensitivity of 87·5% (58·3-100·0) and specificity of 65·8% (62·5-69·0) at a predefined score threshold (60%). Of those with RISK11 results, eight had primary endpoint incident tuberculosis during 15 months of follow-up. Tuberculosis incidence was 2·5 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0·7-4·4) in the RISK11-positive group and 0·2 per 100 person-years (0·0-0·5) in the RISK11-negative group. The probability of primary endpoint incident tuberculosis was greater in the RISK11-positive group than in the RISK11-negative group (cumulative incidence ratio 16·0 [95% CI 2·0-129·5]). RISK11 had a prognostic AUC of 80·0% (95% CI 70·6-86·9), and a sensitivity of 88·6% (43·5-98·7) and a specificity of 68·9% (65·3-72·3) for incident tuberculosis at the 60% threshold. INTERPRETATION: RISK11 identified prevalent tuberculosis and predicted risk of progression to incident tuberculosis within 15 months in ambulant people living with HIV. RISK11's performance approached, but did not meet, WHO's target product profile benchmarks for screening and prognostic tests for tuberculosis. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the South African Medical Research Council.

Biomarker-guided tuberculosis preventive therapy (CORTIS): a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Targeted preventive therapy for individuals at highest risk of incident tuberculosis might impact the epidemic by interrupting transmission. We tested performance of a transcriptomic signature of tuberculosis (RISK11) and efficacy of signature-guided preventive therapy in parallel, using a hybrid three-group study design. METHODS: Adult volunteers aged 18-59 years were recruited at five geographically distinct communities in South Africa. Whole blood was sampled for RISK11 by quantitative RT-PCR assay from eligible volunteers without HIV, recent previous tuberculosis (ie, <3 years before screening), or comorbidities at screening. RISK11-positive participants were block randomised (1:2; block size 15) to once-weekly, directly-observed, open-label isoniazid and rifapentine for 12 weeks (ie, RISK11 positive and 3HP positive), or no treatment (ie, RISK11 positive and 3HP negative). A subset of eligible RISK11-negative volunteers were randomly assigned to no treatment (ie, RISK11 negative and 3HP negative). Diagnostic discrimination of prevalent tuberculosis was tested in all participants at baseline. Thereafter, prognostic discrimination of incident tuberculosis was tested in the untreated RISK11-positive versus RISK11-negative groups, and treatment efficacy in the 3HP-treated versus untreated RISK11-positive groups, during active surveillance through 15 months. The primary endpoint was microbiologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis. The primary outcome measures were risk ratio [RR] for tuberculosis of RISK11-positive to RISK11-negative participants, and treatment efficacy. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02735590. FINDINGS: 20 207 volunteers were screened, and 2923 participants were enrolled, including RISK11-positive participants randomly assigned to 3HP (n=375) or no 3HP (n=764), and 1784 RISK11-negative participants. Cumulative probability of prevalent or incident tuberculosis disease was 0·066 (95% CI 0·049 to 0·084) in RISK11-positive (3HP negative) participants and 0·018 (0·011 to 0·025) in RISK11-negative participants (RR 3·69, 95% CI 2·25-6·05) over 15 months. Tuberculosis prevalence was 47 (4·1%) of 1139 versus 14 (0·78%) of 1984 in RISK11-positive compared with RISK11-negative participants, respectively (diagnostic RR 5·13, 95% CI 2·93 to 9·43). Tuberculosis incidence over 15 months was 2·09 (95% CI 0·97 to 3·19) vs 0·80 (0·30 to 1·30) per 100 person years in RISK11-positive (3HP-negative) participants compared with RISK11-negative participants (cumulative incidence ratio 2·6, 95% CI 1·2 to 5·9). Serious adverse events related to 3HP included one hospitalisation for seizures (unintentional isoniazid overdose) and one death of unknown cause (possibly temporally related). Tuberculosis incidence over 15 months was 1·94 (95% CI 0·35 to 3·50) versus 2·09 (95% CI 0·97 to 3·19) per 100 person-years in 3HP-treated RISK11-positive participants compared with untreated RISK11-positive participants (efficacy 7·0%, 95% CI -145 to 65). INTERPRETATION: The RISK11 signature discriminated between individuals with prevalent tuberculosis, or progression to incident tuberculosis, and individuals who remained healthy, but provision of 3HP to signature-positive individuals after exclusion of baseline disease did not reduce progression to tuberculosis over 15 months. FUNDING: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, South African Medical Research Council.

CMV viral load kinetics as surrogate endpoints after allogeneic transplantation.

BACKGROUNDViral load (VL) surrogate endpoints transformed development of HIV and hepatitis C therapeutics. Surrogate endpoints for CMV-related morbidity and mortality could advance development of antiviral treatments. Although observational data support using CMV VL as a trial endpoint, randomized controlled trials (RCTs) demonstrating direct associations between virological markers and clinical endpoints are lacking.METHODSWe performed CMV DNA PCR on frozen serum samples from the only placebo-controlled RCT of ganciclovir for early treatment of CMV after hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). We used established criteria to assess VL kinetics as surrogates for CMV disease or death by weeks 8, 24, and 48 after randomization and quantified antiviral effects captured by each marker. We used ensemble-based machine learning to assess the predictive ability of VL kinetics and performed this analysis on a ganciclovir prophylaxis RCT for validation.RESULTSVL suppression with ganciclovir reduced cumulative incidence of CMV disease and death for 20 years after HCT. Mean VL, peak VL, and change in VL during the first 5 weeks of treatment fulfilled the Prentice definition for surrogacy, capturing more than 95% of ganciclovir's effect, and yielded highly sensitive and specific predictions by week 48. In the prophylaxis trial, the viral shedding rate satisfied the Prentice definition for CMV disease by week 24.CONCLUSIONSOur results support using CMV VL kinetics as surrogates for CMV disease, provide a framework for developing CMV preventative and therapeutic agents, and support reductions in VL as the mechanism through which antivirals reduce CMV disease.FUNDINGMerck Sharp & Dohme Corp., a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc.

A Meta-analysis of Passive Immunization Studies Shows that Serum-Neutralizing Antibody Titer Associates with Protection against SHIV Challenge.

Passively administered broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) targeting the HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein (Env) have been shown to protect non-human primates (NHPs) against chimeric simian-human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV) infection. With data from multiple non-human primate SHIV challenge studies that used single bNAbs, we conducted a meta-analysis to examine the relationship between predicted serum 50% neutralization titer (ID50) against the challenge virus and infection outcome. In a logistic model that adjusts for bNAb epitopes and challenge viruses, serum ID50 had a highly significant effect on infection risk (p < 0.001). The estimated ID50 to achieve 50%, 75%, and 95% protection was 91 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 55, 153), 219 (117, 410), and 685 (319, 1471), respectively. This analysis indicates that serum neutralizing titer against the relevant virus is a key parameter of protection and that protection from acquisition by a single bNAb might require substantial levels of neutralization at the time of exposure.

Prediction of VRC01 neutralization sensitivity by HIV-1 gp160 sequence features.

The broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) VRC01 is being evaluated for its efficacy to prevent HIV-1 infection in the Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials. A secondary objective of AMP utilizes sieve analysis to investigate how VRC01 prevention efficacy (PE) varies with HIV-1 envelope (Env) amino acid (AA) sequence features. An exhaustive analysis that tests how PE depends on every AA feature with sufficient variation would have low statistical power. To design an adequately powered primary sieve analysis for AMP, we modeled VRC01 neutralization as a function of Env AA sequence features of 611 HIV-1 gp160 pseudoviruses from the CATNAP database, with objectives: (1) to develop models that best predict the neutralization readouts; and (2) to rank AA features by their predictive importance with classification and regression methods. The dataset was split in half, and machine learning algorithms were applied to each half, each analyzed separately using cross-validation and hold-out validation. We selected Super Learner, a nonparametric ensemble-based cross-validated learning method, for advancement to the primary sieve analysis. This method predicted the dichotomous resistance outcome of whether the IC50 neutralization titer of VRC01 for a given Env pseudovirus is right-censored (indicating resistance) with an average validated AUC of 0.868 across the two hold-out datasets. Quantitative log IC50 was predicted with an average validated R2 of 0.355. Features predicting neutralization sensitivity or resistance included 26 surface-accessible residues in the VRC01 and CD4 binding footprints, the length of gp120, the length of Env, the number of cysteines in gp120, the number of cysteines in Env, and 4 potential N-linked glycosylation sites; the top features will be advanced to the primary sieve analysis. This modeling framework may also inform the study of VRC01 in the treatment of HIV-infected persons.