MELD score is predictive of 90-day mortality after veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support.

BACKGROUND: The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score was originally described as a marker of survival in chronic liver disease. More recently, MELD and its derivatives, MELD excluding INR (MELD-XI) and MELD with sodium (MELD-Na), have been applied more broadly as outcome predictors in heart transplant, left ventricular assist device placement, heart failure, and cardiogenic shock, with additional promising data to support the use of these scores for prediction of survival in those undergoing veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA ECMO). METHODS: This study assessed the prognostic impact of MELD in patients with cardiogenic shock undergoing VA ECMO via a single-center retrospective review from January 2014 to March 2020. MELD, MELD-XI, and MELD-Na scores were calculated using laboratory values collected within 48 h of VA ECMO initiation. Multivariate Cox regression analyses determined the association between MELD scores and the primary outcome of 90-day mortality. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) were used to estimate the discriminatory power for MELD in comparison with previously validated SAVE score. RESULTS: Of the 194 patients, median MELD was 20.1 (13.7-26.2), and 90-day mortality was 62.1%. There was a significant association between MELD score and mortality up to 90 days (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.945, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 1.244-3.041, p = 0.004) after adjustment for age, indication for VA ECMO, and sex. The prognostic significance of MELD score for 90-day mortality revealed an AUC of 0.645 (95% CI = 0.565-0.725, p < 0.001). MELD-Na score and MELD-XI score were not associated with mortality. CONCLUSION: MELD score accurately predicts long-term mortality and may be utilized as a valuable decision-making tool in patients undergoing VA ECMO.

Anisocytosis is Associated With Short-Term Mortality in COVID-19 and May Reflect Proinflammatory Signature in Uninfected Ambulatory Adults.

BACKGROUND: Red cell distribution width (RDW), a measure of anisocytosis, is observed in chronic inflammation and is a prognostic marker in critically ill patients without COVID-19, but data in COVID-19 are limited. METHODS: Between March 12 and April 19, 2020, 282 individuals with confirmed COVID-19 and RDW available within 7 days prior to COVID-19 confirmation were evaluated. Individuals were grouped by quartiles of RDW. Association between quartiles of RDW and mortality was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method and statistical significance was assessed using the log-rank test. The association between RDW and all-cause mortality was further assessed using a Cox proportional hazards model. Plasma cytokine levels in uninfected ambulatory adults without cardiovascular disease (n=38) were measured and bivariate Spearman correlations and principle components analysis were used to identify relationships between cytokine concentrations with RDW. RESULTS: After adjusting for age, sex, race, cardiovascular disease, and hemoglobin, there was an association between RDW and mortality (Quartile 4 vs Quartile 1: HR 4.04 [1.08-15.07]), with each 1% increment in RDW associated with a 39% increased rate of mortality (HR 1.39 [1.21-1.59]). Remote RDW was also associated with mortality after COVID-19 infection. Among uninfected ambulatory adults without cardiovascular disease, RDW was associated with elevated pro-inflammatory cytokines (TNF-α, IL8, IL6, IL1b), but not regulatory cytokines (TGFb). CONCLUSIONS: Anisocytosis predicts short-term mortality in COVID-19 patients, often predates viral exposure, and may be related to a pro-inflammatory phenotype. Additional study of whether the RDW can assist in the early identification of pending cytokine storm is warranted.