Designing a large-scale track-based monitoring program to detect changes in species distributions in arid Australia.

Monitoring trends in animal populations in arid regions is challenging due to remoteness and low population densities. However, detecting species' tracks or signs is an effective survey technique for monitoring population trends across large spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we developed a simulation framework to evaluate the performance of alternative track-based monitoring designs at detecting change in species distributions in arid Australia. We collated presence-absence records from 550 2-ha track-based plots for 11 vertebrates over 13 years and fitted ensemble species distribution models to predict occupancy in 2018. We simulated plausible changes in species' distributions over the next 15 years and, with estimates of detectability, simulated monitoring to evaluate the statistical power of three alternative monitoring scenarios: (1) where surveys were restricted to existing 2-ha plots, (2) where surveys were optimized to target all species equally, and (3) where surveys were optimized to target two species of conservation concern. Across all monitoring designs and scenarios, we found that power was higher when detecting increasing occupancy trends compared to decreasing trends owing to the relatively low levels of initial occupancy. Our results suggest that surveying 200 of the existing plots annually (with a small subset resurveyed twice within a year) will have at least an 80% chance of detecting 30% declines in occupancy for four of the five invasive species modeled and one of the six native species. This increased to 10 of the 11 species assuming larger (50%) declines. When plots were positioned to target all species equally, power improved slightly for most compared to the existing survey network. When plots were positioned to target two species of conservation concern (crest-tailed mulgara and dusky hopping mouse), power to detect 30% declines increased by 29% and 31% for these species, respectively, at the cost of reduced power for the remaining species. The effect of varying survey frequency depended on its trade-off with the number of sites sampled and requires further consideration. Nonetheless, our research suggests that track-based surveying is an effective and logistically feasible approach to monitoring broad-scale occupancy trends in desert species with both widespread and restricted distributions.

Long-Distance Movements of Feral Cats in Semi-Arid South Australia and Implications for Conservation Management.

Movements that extend beyond the usual space use of an animal have been documented in a range of species and are particularly prevalent in arid areas. We present long-distance movement data on five feral cats (Felis catus) GPS/VHF-collared during two different research projects in arid and semi-arid Australia. We compare these movements with data from other feral cat studies. Over a study period of three months in the Ikara-Flinders Ranges National Park, 4 out of 19 collared cats moved to sites that were 31, 41, 53 and 86 km away. Three of the cats were males, one female; their weight was between 2.1 and 4.1 kg. Two of the cats returned to the area of capture after three and six weeks. During the other study at Arid Recovery, one collared male cat (2.5 kg) was relocated after two years at a distance of 369 km from the area of collar deployment to the relocation area. The movements occurred following three years of record low rainfall. Our results build on the knowledge base of long-distance movements of feral cats reported at arid study sites and support the assertion that landscape-scale cat control programs in arid and semi-arid areas need to be of a sufficiently large scale to avoid rapid reinvasion and to effectively reduce cat density. Locally, cat control strategies need to be adjusted to improve coverage of areas highly used by cats to increase the efficiency of control operations.

Rabbit biocontrol and landscape-scale recovery of threatened desert mammals.

Funding for species conservation is insufficient to meet the current challenges facing global biodiversity, yet many programs use expensive single-species recovery actions and neglect broader management that addresses threatening processes. Arid Australia has the world's worst modern mammalian extinction record, largely attributable to competition from introduced herbivores, particularly European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) and predation by feral cats (Felis catus) and foxes (Vulpes vulpes). The biological control agent rabbit hemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) was introduced to Australia in 1995 and resulted in dramatic, widespread rabbit suppression. We compared the area of occupancy and extent of occurrence of 4 extant species of small mammals before and after RHDV outbreak, relative to rainfall, sampling effort, and rabbit and predator populations. Despite low rainfall during the first 14 years after RHDV, 2 native rodents listed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), the dusky hopping-mouse (Notomys fuscus) and plains mouse (Pseudomys australis), increased their extent of occurrence by 241-365%. A threatened marsupial micropredator, the crest-tailed mulgara (Dasycercus cristicauda), underwent a 70-fold increase in extent of occurrence and a 20-fold increase in area of occupancy. Both bottom-up and top-down trophic effects were attributed to RHDV, namely decreased competition for food resources and declines in rabbit-dependent predators. Based on these sustained increases, these 3 previously threatened species now qualify for threat-category downgrading on the IUCN Red List. These recoveries are on a scale rarely documented in mammals and give impetus to programs aimed at targeted use of RHDV in Australia, rather than simply employing top-down threat-based management of arid ecosystems. Conservation programs that take big-picture approaches to addressing threatening processes over large spatial scales should be prioritized to maximize return from scarce conservation funding. Further, these should be coupled with long-term ecological monitoring, a critical tool in detecting and understanding complex ecosystem change.

Non-detection errors in a survey of persistent, highly-detectable vegetation species.

Rare, small or annual vegetation species are widely known to be imperfectly detected with single site surveys by most conventional vegetation survey methods. However, the detectability of common, persistent vegetation species is assumed to be high, but without supporting research. In this study, we evaluate the extent of false-negative errors of perennial vegetation species in a systematic vegetation survey in arid South Australia. Analysis was limited to the seven most easily detected persistent vegetation species and controlled for observer skill. By comparison of methodologies, we then predict the magnitude of non-detection error rates in a second survey. The analysis revealed that all but one highly detectable perennial vegetation species was imperfectly detected (detection probabilities ranged from 0.22 to 0.83). While focussed in the Australian rangelands, the implications of this study are far reaching. Inferences drawn from systematic vegetation surveys that fail to identify and account for non-detection errors should be considered potentially flawed. The identification of this problem in vegetation surveying is long overdue. By comparison, non-detection has been a widely acknowledged, and dealt with, problem in fauna surveying for decades. We recommend that, where necessary, vegetation survey methodology adopt the methods developed in fauna surveying to cope with non-detection errors.