Meeting the Challenges of Sepsis in Severe Coronavirus Disease 2019: A Call to Arms.

Sepsis is a life-threatening organ dysfunction that is caused by a dysregulated host response to infection. Sepsis may be caused by bacterial, fungal, or viral pathogens. The clinical manifestations exhibited by patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related sepsis overlap with those exhibited by patients with sepsis from secondary bacterial or fungal infections and can include an altered mental status, dyspnea, reduced urine output, tachycardia, and hypotension. Critically ill patients hospitalized with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infections have increased risk for secondary bacterial and fungal infections. The same risk factors that may predispose to sepsis and poor outcome from bloodstream infections (BSIs) converge in patients with severe COVID-19. Current diagnostic standards for distinguishing between (1) patients who are critically ill, septic, and have COVID-19 and (2) patients with sepsis from other causes leave healthcare providers with 2 suboptimal choices. The first choice is to empirically administer broad-spectrum, antimicrobial therapy for what may or may not be sepsis. Such treatment may not only be ineffective and inappropriate, but it also has the potential to cause harm. The development of better methods to identify and characterize antimicrobial susceptibility will guide more accurate therapeutic interventions and reduce the evolution of new antibiotic-resistant strains. The ideal diagnostic test should (1) be rapid and reliable, (2) have a lower limit of detection than blood culture, and (3) be able to detect a specific organism and drug sensitivity directly from a clinical specimen. Rapid direct detection of antimicrobial-resistant pathogens would allow targeted therapy and result in improved outcomes in patients with severe COVID-19 and sepsis.

Seasonal influenza vaccination is associated with reduced risk of death among Medicare beneficiaries☆.

BACKGROUND: Influenza causes substantial mortality, especially among older persons. Influenza vaccines are rarely more than 50% effective and rarely reach more than half of the US Medicare population, which is primarily an aged population. We wished to estimate the association between vaccination and mortality reduction. METHOD: We used the US Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) DataLink Project to determine vaccination status and timing during the 2017-2018 influenza season for more than 26 million Medicare enrollees. Patient-level demographic, health, co-morbidity, hospitalization, vaccination, and healthcare utilization claims data were supplied as covariates to general linear models in order to isolate and estimate the association between participation in the vaccination program and relative risk of death. FINDINGS: The 2017-2018 seasonal influenza vaccine reduced (Relative Risk Ratio [RRR] 0.936 [95% CI = 0.918-0.954]) the risk of all-cause death among beneficiaries following a hospitalization for sepsis and moreover the risk of death without a prior hospitalization during the 2.5-month outcome window (RRR 0.870 [95% CI = 0.853-0.887]). We estimate the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent a death in the ten-week outcome window is between 1,515 beneficiaries (95% CI = 1,351-1,754; derived from the average treatment effect of augmented inverse probability weighting) and 1,960 beneficiaries (95% CI = 1,695-2,381; derived from the average marginal effect of logistic regression). Among beneficiaries requiring hospitalization, the greatest death risk reduction accrued to those 85 + years of age who were hospitalized with sepsis, RRR 0.92 [95% CI = 0.89-0.95]. No apparent benefit was realized by beneficiaries who required custodial (nursing home) care. INTERPRETATION: Seasonal influenza immunization is associated with relative reduction of death risk among non-institutionalized Medicare beneficiaries. FUNDING: All authors are full-time or contractual employees of the United States Federal Government, Department of Health and Human Services, the funding agency.

Adjuvanted recombinant hemagglutinin H7 vaccine to highly pathogenic influenza A(H7N9) elicits high and sustained antibody responses in healthy adults.

An unprecedented number of human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) in the fifth epidemic wave during the winter of 2016-2017 in China and their antigenic divergence from the viruses that emerged in 2013 prompted development of updated vaccines for pandemic preparedness. We report on the findings of a clinical study in healthy adults designed to evaluate the safety and immunogenicity of three dose levels of recombinant influenza vaccine derived from highly pathogenic A/Guangdong/17SF003/2016 (H7N9) virus adjuvanted with AS03 or MF59 oil-in water emulsions. Most of the six study groups meet the FDA CBER-specified vaccine licensure criterion of 70% seroprotection rate (SPR) for hemagglutination inhibition antibodies to the homologous virus. A substantial proportion of subjects show high cross-reactivity to antigenically distinct heterologous A(H7N9) viruses from the first epidemic wave of 2013. These results provide critical information to develop a pandemic response strategy and support regulatory requirements for vaccination under Emergency Use Authorization.

Sepsis Among Medicare Beneficiaries: 1. The Burdens of Sepsis, 2012-2018.

OBJECTIVES: To provide contemporary estimates of the burdens (costs and mortality) associated with acute inpatient Medicare beneficiary admissions for sepsis. DESIGN: Analysis of paid Medicare claims via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services DataLink Project. SETTING: All U.S. acute care hospitals, excluding federally operated hospitals (Veterans Administration and Defense Health Agency). PATIENTS: All Medicare beneficiaries, 2012-2018, with an inpatient admission including one or more explicit sepsis codes. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Total inpatient hospital and skilled nursing facility admission counts, costs, and mortality over time. From calendar year (CY)2012-CY2018, the total number of Medicare Part A/B (fee-for-service) beneficiaries with an inpatient hospital admission associated with an explicit sepsis code rose from 811,644 to 1,136,889. The total cost of inpatient hospital admission including an explicit sepsis code for those beneficiaries in those calendar years rose from $17,792,657,303 to $22,439,794,212. The total cost of skilled nursing facility care in the 90 days subsequent to an inpatient hospital discharge that included an explicit sepsis code for Medicare Part A/B rose from $3,931,616,160 to $5,623,862,486 over that same interval. Precise costs are not available for Medicare Part C (Medicare Advantage) patients. Using available federal data sources, we estimated the aggregate cost of inpatient admissions and skilled nursing facility admissions for Medicare Advantage patients to have risen from $6.0 to $13.4 billion over the CY2012-CY2018 interval. Combining data for fee-for-service beneficiaries and estimates for Medicare Advantage beneficiaries, we estimate the total inpatient admission sepsis cost and any subsequent skilled nursing facility admission for all (fee-for-service and Medicare Advantage) Medicare patients to have risen from $27.7 to $41.5 billion. Contemporary 6-month mortality rates for Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries with a sepsis inpatient admission remain high: for septic shock, approximately 60%; for severe sepsis, approximately 36%; for sepsis attributed to a specific organism, approximately 31%; and for unspecified sepsis, approximately 27%. CONCLUSION: Sepsis remains common, costly to treat, and presages significant mortality for Medicare beneficiaries.

Sepsis Among Medicare Beneficiaries: 2. The Trajectories of Sepsis, 2012-2018.

OBJECTIVES: To distinguish characteristics of Medicare beneficiaries who will have an acute inpatient admission for sepsis from those who have an inpatient admission without sepsis, and to describe their further trajectories during and subsequent to those inpatient admissions. DESIGN: Analysis of paid Medicare claims via the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services DataLink Project. SETTING: All U.S. acute care hospitals, excepting federal hospitals (Veterans Administration and Defense Health Agency). PATIENTS: Medicare beneficiaries, 2012-2018, with an inpatient hospital admission including one or more explicit sepsis codes. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Prevalent diagnoses in the year prior to the inpatient admission; healthcare contacts in the week prior to the inpatient admission; discharges, transfers, readmissions, and deaths (trajectories) for 6 months following discharge from the inpatient admission. Beneficiaries with no sepsis inpatient hospital admission for a year prior to an index hospital admission for sepsis were nearly indistinguishable by accumulated diagnostic codes from beneficiaries who had an index hospital admission without sepsis. Although the timing of healthcare services in the week prior to inpatient hospital admission was similar among beneficiaries who would be admitted for sepsis versus those whose inpatient admission did not include a sepsis code, the setting differed: beneficiaries destined for a sepsis admission were more likely to have received skilled nursing or unskilled nursing (e.g., nursing aide for activities of daily living) care. In contrast, comparing beneficiaries who had been free of any inpatient admission for an entire year and then required an inpatient admission, acute inpatient stays that included a sepsis code led to more than three times as many deaths within 1 week of discharge, with more admissions to skilled nursing facilities and fewer discharges to home. Comparing all beneficiaries who were admitted to a skilled nursing facility after an inpatient hospital admission, those who had sepsis coded during the index admission were more likely to die in the skilled nursing facility; more likely to be readmitted to an acute inpatient hospital and subsequently die in that setting; or if they survive to discharge from the skilled nursing facility, they are more likely to go next to a custodial nursing home. CONCLUSIONS: Although Medicare beneficiaries destined for an inpatient hospital admission with a sepsis code are nearly indistinguishable by other diagnostic codes from those whose admissions will not have a sepsis code, their healthcare trajectories following the admission are worse. This suggests that an inpatient stay that included a sepsis code not only identifies beneficiaries who were less resilient to infection but also signals increased risk for worsening health, for mortality, and for increased use of advanced healthcare services during and postdischarge along with an increased likelihood of an inpatient hospital readmission.

Sepsis Among Medicare Beneficiaries: 3. The Methods, Models, and Forecasts of Sepsis, 2012-2018.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of sepsis, age, and comorbidities on death following an acute inpatient admission and to model and forecast inpatient and skilled nursing facility costs for Medicare beneficiaries during and subsequent to an acute inpatient sepsis admission. DESIGN: Analysis of paid Medicare claims via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services DataLink Project (CMS) and leveraging the CMS-Hierarchical Condition Category risk adjustment model. SETTING: All U.S. acute care hospitals, excepting federal hospitals (Veterans Administration and Defense Health Agency). PATIENTS: All Part A/B (fee-for-service) Medicare beneficiaries with an acute inpatient admission in 2017 and who had no inpatient sepsis admission in the prior year. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Logistic regression models to determine covariate risk contribution to death following an acute inpatient admission; conventional regression to predict Medicare beneficiary sepsis costs. Using the Hierarchical Condition Category risk adjustment model to illuminate influence of illness on outcome of inpatient admissions, representative odds ratios (with 95% CIs) for death within 6 months of an admission (referenced to beneficiaries admitted but without the characteristic) are as follows: septic shock, 7.27 (7.19-7.35); metastatic cancer and acute leukemia (Hierarchical Condition Category 8), 6.76 (6.71-6.82); all sepsis, 2.63 (2.62-2.65); respiratory arrest (Hierarchical Condition Category 83), 2.55 (2.35-2.77); end-stage liver disease (Hierarchical Condition Category 27), 2.53 (2.49-2.56); and severe sepsis without shock, 2.48 (2.45-2.51). Models of the cost of sepsis care for Medicare beneficiaries forecast arise approximately 13% over 2 years owing the rising enrollments in Medicare offset by the cost of care per admission. CONCLUSIONS: A sepsis inpatient admission is associated with marked increase in risk of death that is comparable to the risks associated with inpatient admissions for other common and serious chronic illnesses. The aggregate costs of sepsis care for Medicare beneficiaries will continue to increase.

Clinical Development of Therapeutic Agents for Hospitalized Patients With Influenza: Challenges and Innovations.

BACKGROUND: Since 1999, the US Food and Drug Administration approved neuraminidase and endonuclease inhibitors to treat uncomplicated outpatient influenza but not severe hospitalized influenza. After the 2009 pandemic, several influenza hospital-based clinical therapeutic trials were unsuccessful, possibly due to certain study factors. Therefore, in 2014, the US Health and Human Services agencies formed a Working Group (WG) to address related clinical challenges. METHODS: Starting in 2014, the WG obtained retrospective data from failed hospital-based influenza therapeutic trials and nontherapeutic hospital-based influenza studies. These data allowed the WG to identify factors that might improve hospital-based therapeutic trials. These included primary clinical endpoints, increased clinical site enrollment, and appropriate baseline enrollment criteria. RESULTS: During 2018, the WG received retrospective data from a National Institutes of Health hospital-based influenza therapeutic trial that demonstrated time to resolution of respiratory status, which was not a satisfactory primary endpoint. The WG statisticians examined these data and believed that ordinal outcomes might be a more powerful primary endpoint. Johns Hopkins' researchers provided WG data from an emergency-department (ED) triage study to identify patients with confirmed influenza using molecular testing. During the 2013-2014 influenza season, 4 EDs identified 1074 influenza-patients, which suggested that triage testing should increase enrollment by hospital-based clinical trial sites. In 2017, the WG received data from Northwestern Memorial Hospital researchers regarding 703 influenza inpatients over 5 seasons. The WG applied National Early Warning Score (NEWS) at patient baseline to identify appropriate criteria to enroll patients into hospital-based therapeutic trials. CONCLUSIONS: Data received by the WG indicated that hospital-based influenza therapeutic trials could use ordinal outcome analyses, ED triage to identify influenza patients, and NEWS for enrollment criteria.

Safety and immunogenicity of influenza A(H5N1) vaccine stored up to twelve years in the National Pre-Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Stockpile (NPIVS).

BACKGROUND: As part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Pandemic Influenza Plan preparedness and response strategy, the National Pre-Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Stockpile (NPIVS) program was established by the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) in 2005 with the goal of building and maintaining a stockpile of vaccines for influenza viruses with pandemic potential to vaccinate 20 million people in the critical workforce in the event of a pandemic. The NPIVS program continuously monitors the integrity of influenza vaccine antigens and adjuvants stored within the stockpile. In addition to monitoring physical and chemical properties in stability studies, it is important to regularly assess the safety and immunogenicity of stockpiled vaccines and adjuvants to maintain preparedness for use in the event of an influenza pandemic. METHODS: BARDA conducted a randomized, double-blinded Phase 2 clinical study with the oldest stockpiled influenza A(H5N1) antigen, stored over the previous 10-12 years administered with or without MF59® adjuvant, stored over the previous 2-7 years at the time of vaccination. RESULTS: Stockpiled vaccines were well-tolerated, adverse events were generally mild, and there was no drop in immunogenicity to the oldest stockpiled A(H5N1) vaccine. Compared to unadjuvanted vaccine, greater peak antibody responses were observed in subjects who were vaccinated with MF59-adjuvanted vaccines, regardless of antigen dose. Vaccination with the A(H5N1) vaccine antigen also results in cross-reactive antibody responses to contemporary circulating strains of A(H5) influenza viruses. CONCLUSIONS: The frequency, type, and severity of AEs observed during this study are similar to historical clinical study data with A(H5N1) vaccines and MF59 adjuvant indicating that a stockpiled A(H5N1) vaccine appears to remain safe and tolerable. The vaccines were immunogenic when administered as a two-dose vaccine regimen in healthy adults, despite extended storage of HA antigen or MF59 adjuvant within the NPIVS. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02680002.

Vaccines as a tool to estimate the burden of severe influenza in children of low-resourced areas (November 30-December 1, 2012, Les Pensieres, Veyrier-du-Lac, France).

There is an increasing focus on influenza in low-resourced areas as a vaccine-preventable cause of severe lower respiratory disease in young children, especially among those under two years of age. The extent of the disease burden is unclear: current etiologic studies may underestimate the impact of influenza if recognized or unrecognized infection occurs some time before severe disease manifestations prompt specimen collection for diagnosis. Because of various methodological challenges, a vaccine probe approach was used to estimate vaccine preventable disease incidence (VPDI) for Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae type b, particularly for pneumonia outcomes among young children. A similar approach could be used to determine VPDI for influenza. A highly effective vaccine would facilitate this approach; however, with appropriate design, a less than ideal vaccine also could be used to estimate VPDI. Because influenza vaccine efficacy against severe disease may be greater than against all symptomatic influenza disease, a vaccine probe approach could provide a better measure than etiologic studies of the public health utility of influenza vaccine. The first 6 months of life is a time of particularly increased influenza risk among young children, and an age group for which current vaccines are not approved. Previous studies have found that maternal influenza immunization can reduce acute respiratory infection in the infant during this vulnerable period. Additional randomized, controlled trials are currently underway using a vaccine probe approach to estimate VPDI among mothers and their infants following maternal influenza immunization. The World Health Organization now identifies pregnant women as the highest priority target group for influenza vaccination. Should countries implement this strategy, infants age 6-23 months likely would remain at increased risk; vaccine probe approaches could quantify the public health benefit of immunizing this group.

Antivirals in seasonal and pandemic influenza--future perspectives.

Antiviral drugs continue to be an important option for the treatment of influenza disease and will likely be the only option during the early phases of pandemic. However, the limited number of drug classes licensed for treatment of influenza raises several issues, particularly in the face of drug resistance. Two classes of drugs are presently licensed for treatment of influenza, M2 and neuraminidase inhibitors. M2 inhibitors are currently not recommended for treatment of influenza because of widespread resistance and resistance to neuraminidase inhibitors has been observed during the past influenza seasonal outbreaks. Additional antiviral drugs with novel mechanisms of action are clearly needed for the treatment of influenza. Fortunately, the landscape of drugs in early and advanced development has dramatically increased over the last 5 years. Drugs targeting viral functions such as attachment, entry/fusion, transcription, and polymerase and drugs targeting host factors affecting viral replication are currently in clinical trials. Examples of these novel antiviral drugs and the challenges for influenza antiviral drug development are discussed in this article.

PATH Influenza Vaccine Project: accelerating the development of new influenza vaccines for low-resource countries.

The 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic demonstrated that a pandemic influenza virus has the potential to spread more rapidly in today's highly interconnected world than in the past. While pandemic morbidity and mortality are likely to be greatest in low-resource countries, manufacturing capacity and access to influenza vaccines predominantly exist in countries with greater resources and infrastructure. Even with recently expanded manufacturing capacity, the number of doses available within a 6-month timeframe would be inadequate to fully immunize the global population if the decision to implement a global vaccination program were made today. Improved, affordable vaccines are needed to limit the consequences of a global influenza outbreak and protect low-resource populations. PATH's Influenza Vaccine Project is supporting a range of activities in collaboration with private- and public-sector partners to advance the development of promising influenza vaccines that can be accessible and affordable for people in low-resource countries.

United States of America Department of Health and Human Services support for advancing influenza vaccine manufacturing in the developing world.

Since 2005, the Government of the United States of America has provided more than US$ 50 million to advance influenza vaccine development in low-resourced countries. This programme has provided a unique opportunity for the US Government to develop a comprehensive view of, and to understand better the challenges and future needs for influenza vaccines in the developing world. The funding for this programme has been primarily through a cooperative agreement with the World Health Organization (WHO) to support directly its capacity-building grants to government-owned or -supported vaccine manufacturers in developing countries. A second cooperative agreement with the Program for Appropriate Technologies in Health (PATH) was initiated to accelerate the completion of a current Good Manufacturing Practice cGMP production facility, along with supporting facilities to obtain a reliable source of eggs, and to conduct clinical trials of influenza vaccine manufactured in Vietnam. This mechanism of utilizing cooperative agreements to support capacity-building for vaccine development in low-resourced settings has been novel and unique and has yielded fruitful returns on minimal investment. The information derived from this programme helps to clarify not only the development challenges for influenza vaccines and how the United States may assist in meeting those challenges, but also other vaccine development issues common to manufacturers in developing countries. While building the initial capacity to produce influenza vaccines can be a straightforward exercise, the sustainability of the enterprise and expansion of subsequent markets will be the key to future usefulness. There is hope for expansion of the global influenza vaccine market. Ongoing burden of disease studies are elucidating the impact of influenza infections, particularly in children, and more countries will take note and respond accordingly, since respiratory diseases are now the number one killer of children under five years of age. In addition to achievements described in this issue of Vaccine, the programme has been successful from the US perspective because the working relationships established between the US Department of Health and Human Services' (HHS) Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) and its partners have assisted in advancing influenza vaccine development at many different levels. A few examples of BARDA's support include: establishment of egg-based influenza vaccine production from "scratch", enhancement of live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) production techniques and infrastructure, completion of fill/finish operations for imported bulk vaccine, and training in advanced bio-manufacturing techniques. These HHS-supported programmes have been well-received internationally, and we and our partners hope the successes will stimulate even more interest within the international community in maximizing global production levels for influenza vaccines.