Biological invasions are a population-level rather than a species-level phenomenon.

Biological invasions pose a rapidly expanding threat to the persistence, functioning and service provisioning of ecosystems globally, and to socio-economic interests. The stages of successful invasions are driven by the same mechanism that underlies adaptive changes across species in general-via natural selection on intraspecific variation in traits that influence survival and reproductive performance (i.e., fitness). Surprisingly, however, the rapid progress in the field of invasion science has resulted in a predominance of species-level approaches (such as deny lists), often irrespective of natural selection theory, local adaptation and other population-level processes that govern successful invasions. To address these issues, we analyse non-native species dynamics at the population level by employing a database of European freshwater macroinvertebrate time series, to investigate spreading speed, abundance dynamics and impact assessments among populations. Our findings reveal substantial variability in spreading speed and abundance trends within and between macroinvertebrate species across biogeographic regions, indicating that levels of invasiveness and impact differ markedly. Discrepancies and inconsistencies among species-level risk screenings and real population-level data were also identified, highlighting the inherent challenges in accurately assessing population-level effects through species-level assessments. In recognition of the importance of population-level assessments, we urge a shift in invasive species management frameworks, which should account for the dynamics of different populations and their environmental context. Adopting an adaptive, region-specific and population-focused approach is imperative, considering the diverse ecological contexts and varying degrees of susceptibility. Such an approach could improve and refine risk assessments while promoting mechanistic understandings of risks and impacts, thereby enabling the development of more effective conservation and management strategies.

Taming the terminological tempest in invasion science.

Standardised terminology in science is important for clarity of interpretation and communication. In invasion science - a dynamic and rapidly evolving discipline - the proliferation of technical terminology has lacked a standardised framework for its development. The result is a convoluted and inconsistent usage of terminology, with various discrepancies in descriptions of damage and interventions. A standardised framework is therefore needed for a clear, universally applicable, and consistent terminology to promote more effective communication across researchers, stakeholders, and policymakers. Inconsistencies in terminology stem from the exponential increase in scientific publications on the patterns and processes of biological invasions authored by experts from various disciplines and countries since the 1990s, as well as publications by legislators and policymakers focusing on practical applications, regulations, and management of resources. Aligning and standardising terminology across stakeholders remains a challenge in invasion science. Here, we review and evaluate the multiple terms used in invasion science (e.g. 'non-native', 'alien', 'invasive' or 'invader', 'exotic', 'non-indigenous', 'naturalised', 'pest') to propose a more simplified and standardised terminology. The streamlined framework we propose and translate into 28 other languages is based on the terms (i) 'non-native', denoting species transported beyond their natural biogeographic range, (ii) 'established non-native', i.e. those non-native species that have established self-sustaining populations in their new location(s) in the wild, and (iii) 'invasive non-native' - populations of established non-native species that have recently spread or are spreading rapidly in their invaded range actively or passively with or without human mediation. We also highlight the importance of conceptualising 'spread' for classifying invasiveness and 'impact' for management. Finally, we propose a protocol for classifying populations based on (i) dispersal mechanism, (ii) species origin, (iii) population status, and (iv) impact. Collectively and without introducing new terminology, the framework that we present aims to facilitate effective communication and collaboration in invasion science and management of non-native species.

Economic impact disharmony in global biological invasions.

A dominant syndrome of the Anthropocene is the rapid worldwide spread of invasive species with devastating environmental and socio-economic impacts. However, the dynamics underlying the impacts of biological invasions remain contested. A hypothesis posits that the richness of impactful invasive species increases proportionally with the richness of non-native species more generally. A competing hypothesis suggests that certain species features disproportionately enhance the chances of non-native species becoming impactful, causing invasive species to arise disproportionately relative to the numbers of non-native species. We test whether invasive species with reported monetary costs reflect global numbers of established non-native species among phyla, classes, and families. Our results reveal that numbers of invasive species with economic costs largely reflect non-native species richness among taxa (i.e., in 96 % of families). However, a few costly taxa were over- and under-represented, and their composition differed among environments and regions. Chordates, nematodes, and pathogenic groups tended to be the most over-represented phyla with reported monetary costs, with mammals, insects, fungi, roundworms, and medically-important microorganisms being over-represented classes. Numbers of costly invasive species increased significantly with non-native richness per taxon, while monetary cost magnitudes at the family level were also significantly related to costly invasive species richness. Costs were biased towards a few 'hyper-costly' taxa (such as termites, mosquitoes, cats, weevils, rodents, ants, and asters). Ordination analysis revealed significant dissimilarity between non-native and costly invasive taxon assemblages. These results highlight taxonomic groups which harbour disproportionately high numbers of costly invasive species and monetary cost magnitudes. Collectively, our findings support prevention of arrival and containment of spread of non-native species as a whole through effective strategies for mitigation of the rapidly amplifying impacts of invasive species. Yet, the hyper- costly taxa identified here should receive greater focus from managers to reduce impacts of current invasive species.

Recent advances in availability and synthesis of the economic costs of biological invasions.

Biological invasions are a global challenge that has received insufficient attention. Recently available cost syntheses have provided policy- and decision makers with reliable and up-to-date information on the economic impacts of biological invasions, aiming to motivate effective management. The resultant InvaCost database is now publicly and freely accessible and enables rapid extraction of monetary cost information. This has facilitated knowledge sharing, developed a more integrated and multidisciplinary network of researchers, and forged multidisciplinary collaborations among diverse organizations and stakeholders. Over 50 scientific publications so far have used the database and have provided detailed assessments of invasion costs across geographic, taxonomic, and spatiotemporal scales. These studies have provided important information that can guide future policy and legislative decisions on the management of biological invasions while simultaneously attracting public and media attention. We provide an overview of the improved availability, reliability, standardization, and defragmentation of monetary costs; discuss how this has enhanced invasion science as a discipline; and outline directions for future development.

Unveiling the hidden economic toll of biological invasions in the European Union.

Background: Biological invasions threaten the functioning of ecosystems, biodiversity, and human well-being by degrading ecosystem services and eliciting massive economic costs. The European Union has historically been a hub for cultural development and global trade, and thus, has extensive opportunities for the introduction and spread of alien species. While reported costs of biological invasions to some member states have been recently assessed, ongoing knowledge gaps in taxonomic and spatio-temporal data suggest that these costs were considerably underestimated. Results: We used the latest available cost data in InvaCost (v4.1)-the most comprehensive database on the costs of biological invasions-to assess the magnitude of this underestimation within the European Union via projections of current and future invasion costs. We used macroeconomic scaling and temporal modelling approaches to project available cost information over gaps in taxa, space, and time, thereby producing a more complete estimate for the European Union economy. We identified that only 259 out of 13,331 (~ 1%) known invasive alien species have reported costs in the European Union. Using a conservative subset of highly reliable, observed, country-level cost entries from 49 species (totalling US$4.7 billion; 2017 value), combined with the establishment data of alien species within European Union member states, we projected unreported cost data for all member states. Conclusions: Our corrected estimate of observed costs was potentially 501% higher (US$28.0 billion) than currently recorded. Using future projections of current estimates, we also identified a substantial increase in costs and costly species (US$148.2 billion) by 2040. We urge that cost reporting be improved to clarify the economic impacts of greatest concern, concomitant with coordinated international action to prevent and mitigate the impacts of invasive alien species in the European Union and globally. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12302-023-00750-3.

Long-term trends in crayfish invasions across European rivers.

Europe has experienced a substantial increase in non-indigenous crayfish species (NICS) since the mid-20th century due to their extensive use in fisheries, aquaculture and, more recently, pet trade. Despite relatively long invasion histories of some NICS and negative impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, large spatio-temporal analyses of their occurrences are lacking. Here, we used a large freshwater macroinvertebrate database to evaluate what information on NICS can be obtained from widely applied biomonitoring approaches and how usable such data is for descriptions of trends in identified NICS species. We found 160 time-series containing NICS between 1983 and 2019, to infer temporal patterns and environmental drivers of species and region-specific trends. Using a combination of meta-regression and generalized linear models, we found no significant temporal trend for the abundance of any species (Procambarus clarkii, Pacifastacus leniusculus or Faxonius limosus) at the European scale, but identified species-specific predictors of abundances. While analysis of the spatial range expansion of NICS was positive (i.e. increasing spread) in England and negative (significant retreat) in northern Spain, no trend was detected in Hungary and the Dutch-German-Luxembourg region. The average invasion velocity varied among countries, ranging from 30 km/year in England to 90 km/year in Hungary. The average invasion velocity gradually decreased over time in the long term, with declines being fastest in the Dutch-German-Luxembourg region, and much slower in England. Considering that NICS pose a substantial threat to aquatic biodiversity across Europe, our study highlights the utility and importance of collecting high resolution (i.e. annual) biomonitoring data using a sampling protocol that is able to estimate crayfish abundance, enabling a more profound understanding of NICS impacts on biodiversity.

Do alternative resources dampen functional responses of native but not alien gammarids?

While aquatic invasive predators are among the most impactful trophic groups, we lack the understanding of whether alternative food resources mediate adverse predatory effects and stabilize native prey communities. Here, we use comparative functional responses to examine the influence of alternative food resources (Fucus sp.) on predator-prey interaction strengths from three gammarid crustaceans, with one native (Gammarus locusta) and two existing and emerging invasive (Gammarus tigrinus, Pontogammarus maeoticus, respectively) species, towards larval chironomid prey. All gammarids exhibited Type II functional responses, irrespective of the presence of alternative seaweed disks. Fucus sp. disks significantly reduced predation rates overall; however, significant reductions in maximum feeding rates (i.e., functional response magnitudes) were only evident in the native species and not for the two invaders. Our results thus may suggest that alternative resources dampen the predatory interaction strength of native but not invasive alien species, concerning these three study organisms. This potentially exacerbates the impacts of invasive predators relative to natives in diverse communities. Studies should increasingly consider alternative resources when quantifying ecological impacts of current and future invasive alien species compared with natives.

Predicting ecological impacts of the invasive brush-clawed shore crab under environmental change.

Globally, the number of invasive non-indigenous species is continually rising, representing a major driver of biodiversity declines and a growing socio-economic burden. Hemigrapsus takanoi, the Japanese brush-clawed shore crab, is a highly successful invader in European seas. However, the ecological consequences of this invasion have remained unexamined under environmental changes-such as climatic warming and desalination, which are projected in the Baltic Sea-impeding impact prediction and management. Recently, the comparative functional response (resource use across resource densities) has been pioneered as a reliable approach to quantify and predict the ecological impacts of invasive non-indigenous species under environmental contexts. This study investigated the functional response of H. takanoi factorially between different crab sexes and under environmental conditions predicted for the Baltic Sea in the contexts of climate warming (16 and 22 °C) and desalination (15 and 10), towards blue mussel Mytilus edulis prey provided at different densities. Hemigrapsus takanoi displayed a potentially population-destabilising Type II functional response (i.e. inversely-density dependent) towards mussel prey under all environmental conditions, characterised by high feeding rates at low prey densities that could extirpate prey populations-notwithstanding high in-field abundances of M. edulis. Males exhibited higher feeding rates than females under all environmental conditions. Higher temperatures reduced the feeding rate of male H. takanoi, but did not affect the feeding rate of females. Salinity did not have a clear effect on feeding rates for either sex. These results provide insights into interactions between biological invasions and climate change, with future warming potentially lessening the impacts of this rapidly spreading marine invader, depending on the underlying population demographics and abundances.

Biological invasion costs reveal insufficient proactive management worldwide.

The global increase in biological invasions is placing growing pressure on the management of ecological and economic systems. However, the effectiveness of current management expenditure is difficult to assess due to a lack of standardised measurement across spatial, taxonomic and temporal scales. Furthermore, there is no quantification of the spending difference between pre-invasion (e.g. prevention) and post-invasion (e.g. control) stages, although preventative measures are considered to be the most cost-effective. Here, we use a comprehensive database of invasive alien species economic costs (InvaCost) to synthesise and model the global management costs of biological invasions, in order to provide a better understanding of the stage at which these expenditures occur. Since 1960, reported management expenditures have totalled at least US$95.3 billion (in 2017 values), considering only highly reliable and actually observed costs - 12-times less than damage costs from invasions ($1130.6 billion). Pre-invasion management spending ($2.8 billion) was over 25-times lower than post-invasion expenditure ($72.7 billion). Management costs were heavily geographically skewed towards North America (54%) and Oceania (30%). The largest shares of expenditures were directed towards invasive alien invertebrates in terrestrial environments. Spending on invasive alien species management has grown by two orders of magnitude since 1960, reaching an estimated $4.2 billion per year globally (in 2017 values) in the 2010s, but remains 1-2 orders of magnitude lower than damages. National management spending increased with incurred damage costs, with management actions delayed on average by 11 years globally following damage reporting. These management delays on the global level have caused an additional invasion cost of approximately $1.2 trillion, compared to scenarios with immediate management. Our results indicate insufficient management - particularly pre-invasion - and urge better investment to prevent future invasions and to control established alien species. Recommendations to improve reported management cost comprehensiveness, resolution and terminology are also made.

Aquatic invasion patterns across the North Atlantic.

Biological invasions are a major driver of biodiversity loss and socioeconomic burden globally. As invasion rates accelerate worldwide, understanding past invasion dynamics is essential to inform predictions of future invaders and impacts. Owing to a high diversity of pathways and current biosecurity gaps, aquatic systems near urban centres are especially susceptible to alien species establishments. Here, we compiled and compared alien species lists for three different aquatic recipient regions spanning the North Atlantic: Chesapeake Bay, Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River and North and Baltic Seas. Each system is a major trade centre, with a history of invasions, and characterized by a strong natural salinity gradient. Our goal was to compare the alien species across systems, to test for similarities in the taxonomic composition and geographic origin as well as species overlap among the three regions. We selected specific macroinvertebrate, algal and fish taxa for analysis, to control for uneven taxonomic and biogeographic resolution across regions. Cumulatively, we identified 326 individual alien species established in these aquatic systems, with the North and Baltic Seas most invaded overall (163), followed by Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River (84) and Chesapeake Bay (79). Most invasions were from Ponto-Caspian, Eurasian, Northwest Pacific, Northwest Atlantic and North American origins, and mostly comprised Arthropoda, Chordata, Mollusca and Annelida. However, origins and taxonomies differed significantly among destinations, with Ponto-Caspian species particularly successful invaders to the North and Baltic Seas then Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River, but less so to Chesapeake Bay. Nevertheless, approximately eight-tenths of invaders established in only one region, indicating disparate invasion patterns and a high potential for future aliens to accrue from increasingly diverse source pools and pathways. These results support biosecurity strategies that consider a broad range of geographic origins and taxonomic groups to limit the translocation, arrival and spread of alien species worldwide.

Plankton diversity in Anthropocene: Shipping vs. aquaculture along the eastern Adriatic coast assessed through DNA metabarcoding.

Coastal ecosystems globally are exposed to the most pervasive anthropogenic activities, caused by a suite of human infrastructure and enterprises such as shipping ports, aquaculture facilities, fishing, and tourism. These anthropogenic activities may lead to changes in ecosystem biodiversity, followed by loss of ecosystem functioning and services. Shipping industry and aquaculture have also been recognized as the main vectors for introduction of marine non-indigenous species (NIS) worldwide. In this study, we used DNA metabarcoding-based methods to investigate plankton biodiversity under varying anthropogenic pressures (shipping and bivalve aquaculture) along the eastern Adriatic coast (the northernmost part of the Mediterranean Sea). Our comparative assessment revealed similar community structures among investigated coastal locations (Northern, Central and Southern Adriatic). When the whole plankton communities were considered, they did not differ significantly between port and aquaculture sites. However, the proportion of the unique zOTUs in the port samples was remarkably higher than that in aquaculture sites (40.5% vs 8.2%), indicating that port areas may receive higher abundance and species richness of NIS than aquaculture sites. Further important difference between the two types of anthropogenically impacted habitats was a high abundance of three notorious invaders - M. leidyi, M. gigas, and H. elegans in late summer at the aquaculture site in Northern Adriatic. Therefore, the plankton community of the area is under pressure not only from aquaculture activities, but also establishment of NIS. Port areas are probably under greater introduction pressure from NIS, but aquaculture sites may experience greater community changes due to their establishment.

Functional responses of an invasive mud crab across a salinity gradient.

Environmental gradients may alter the ecological impacts of invasive alien species. In marine systems such as the Baltic Sea, current salinity is variable and seawater freshening is projected in future, potentially facilitating novel keystone predators. Here, we examine the influence of salinity variation in the western Baltic Sea (i.e. ambient 10, then 7 and 4 ppt) on the functional response (FR) of the Harris mud crab Rhithropanopeus harrisii towards benthic macroinvertebrate prey at different densities. Rhithropanopeus harrisii displayed a Type II FR across salinities towards larval chironomids, due to a consistently high resource consumption rate at low prey densities. Feeding rates were significantly reduced at 4 ppt (mean 6 chironomid prey killed day-1) compared to 10 ppt and 7 ppt (9 killed day-1). Search efficiencies tended to be greatest at 10 ppt, whereas handling times were shortest - and maximum feeding rate highest - at the intermediate 7 ppt. These results suggest a slight reduction in predatory impact by R. harrisii at lower salinities. Nevertheless, across most prey densities, FRs were not significantly different, indicating sustained interaction strength across a range of salinity regimes.

Temperature, not salinity, drives impact of an emerging invasive species.

Biological invasions are a growing ecological and socioeconomic problem worldwide. While robust predictions of impactful future invaders are urgently needed, understandings of invader impacts have been challenged by context-dependencies. In aquatic systems in particular, future climate change could alter the impacts of invasive non-native species. Widespread warming coupled with sea freshening may exacerbate ecological impacts of invaders in marine environments, compromising ecosystem structure, function and stability. We examined how multiple abiotic changes affect the potential ecological impact of an emerging invasive non-native species from the Ponto-Caspian region - a notorious origin hotspot for invaders, characterised by high salinity and temperature variation. Using a comparative functional response (feeding rates across prey densities) approach, the potential ecological impacts of the gammarid Pontogammarus maeoticus towards native chironomid prey were examined across a range of current and future temperature (18, 22 °C) and salinity (14, 10, 6, 2 ppt) regimes in a factorial design. Feeding rates of P. maeoticus on prey significantly increased with temperature (by 60%), but were not significantly affected by salinity regime. Gammarids displayed significant Type II functional responses, with attack rates not significantly affected by warming across all salinities. Handling times were, however, shortened by warming, and thus maximum feeding rates significantly increased, irrespective of salinity regime. Functional responses were significantly different following warming at high prey densities under all salinities, except under the ambient 10 ppt. Euryhalinity of invasive non-native species from the Ponto-Caspian region thus could allow sustained ecological impacts across a range of salinity regimes. These results corroborate high invasion success and field impacts of Ponto-Caspian gammarids in brackish through to freshwater ecosystems. Climate warming will likely worsen the potential ecological impact of P. maeoticus. With invasions growing worldwide, quantifications of how combined elements of climate change will alter the impacts of emerging invasive non-native species are needed.

Global economic costs of aquatic invasive alien species.

Much research effort has been invested in understanding ecological impacts of invasive alien species (IAS) across ecosystems and taxonomic groups, but empirical studies about economic effects lack synthesis. Using a comprehensive global database, we determine patterns and trends in economic costs of aquatic IAS by examining: (i) the distribution of these costs across taxa, geographic regions and cost types; (ii) the temporal dynamics of global costs; and (iii) knowledge gaps, especially compared to terrestrial IAS. Based on the costs recorded from the existing literature, the global cost of aquatic IAS conservatively summed to US$345 billion, with the majority attributed to invertebrates (62%), followed by vertebrates (28%), then plants (6%). The largest costs were reported in North America (48%) and Asia (13%), and were principally a result of resource damages (74%); only 6% of recorded costs were from management. The magnitude and number of reported costs were highest in the United States of America and for semi-aquatic taxa. Many countries and known aquatic alien species had no reported costs, especially in Africa and Asia. Accordingly, a network analysis revealed limited connectivity among countries, indicating disparate cost reporting. Aquatic IAS costs have increased in recent decades by several orders of magnitude, reaching at least US$23 billion in 2020. Costs are likely considerably underrepresented compared to terrestrial IAS; only 5% of reported costs were from aquatic species, despite 26% of known invaders being aquatic. Additionally, only 1% of aquatic invasion costs were from marine species. Costs of aquatic IAS are thus substantial, but likely underreported. Costs have increased over time and are expected to continue rising with future invasions. We urge increased and improved cost reporting by managers, practitioners and researchers to reduce knowledge gaps. Few costs are proactive investments; increased management spending is urgently needed to prevent and limit current and future aquatic IAS damages.

Comparative Microbiome and Metabolome Analyses of the Marine Tunicate Ciona intestinalis from Native and Invaded Habitats.

Massive fouling by the invasive ascidian Ciona intestinalis in Prince Edward Island (PEI, Canada) has been causing devastating losses to the local blue mussel farms. In order to gain first insights into so far unexplored factors that may contribute to the invasiveness of C. intestinalis in PEI, we undertook comparative microbiome and metabolome studies on specific tissues from C. intestinalis populations collected in invaded (PEI) and native regions (Helgoland and Kiel, Germany). Microbial community analyses and untargeted metabolomics revealed clear location- and tissue-specific patterns showing that biogeography and the sampled tissue shape the microbiome and metabolome of C. intestinalis. Moreover, we observed higher microbial and chemical diversity in C. intestinalis from PEI than in the native populations. Bacterial OTUs specific to C. intestinalis from PEI included Cyanobacteria (e.g., Leptolyngbya sp.) and Rhodobacteraceae (e.g., Roseobacter sp.), while populations from native sampling sites showed higher abundances of e.g., Firmicutes (Helgoland) and Epsilonproteobacteria (Kiel). Altogether 121 abundant metabolites were putatively annotated in the global ascidian metabolome, of which 18 were only detected in the invasive PEI population (e.g., polyketides and terpenoids), while six (e.g., sphingolipids) or none were exclusive to the native specimens from Helgoland and Kiel, respectively. Some identified bacteria and metabolites reportedly possess bioactive properties (e.g., antifouling and antibiotic) that may contribute to the overall fitness of C. intestinalis. Hence, this first study provides a basis for future studies on factors underlying the global invasiveness of Ciona species.

Invasion costs, impacts, and human agency: response to Sagoff 2020.

Article impact statement: In an era of profound biodiversity crisis, invasion costs, invader impacts, and human agency should not be dismissed.

Salinity tolerance and geographical origin predict global alien amphipod invasions.

Invasive alien species are driving global biodiversity loss, compromising ecosystem function and service provision, and human, animal and plant health. Habitat characteristics and geographical origin may predict invasion success, and in aquatic environments could be mediated principally by salinity tolerance. Crustacean invaders are causing global problems and we urgently require better predictive power of their invasiveness. Here, we compiled global aquatic gammarid (Crustacea: Amphipoda: Gammaroidea) diversity and examined their salinity tolerances and regions of origin to test whether these factors predict invasion success. Across 918 aquatic species within this superfamily, relatively few gammarids (n = 27, 3%) were reported as aliens, despite extensive invasion opportunities and high numbers of published studies on amphipod invasions. However, reported alien species were disproportionately salt-tolerant (i.e. 32% of brackish-water species), with significantly lower proportions of aliens originating from freshwater and marine environments (both 1%). Alien gammarids also significantly disproportionally originated from the Ponto-Caspian (20% of these taxa) when compared with all 'other' grouped regions (1%), and principally invaded Eurasian waters, with translocations of salt-tolerant taxa to freshwaters being pervasive. This suggests habitat characteristics, alongside regional contexts, help predict invasibility. In particular, broad environmental tolerances to harsh environments and associated evolutionary history probably promote success of aliens globally.

Competitive feeding interactions between native Ostrea edulis and non-native Crassostrea gigas with implications of introducing C. gigas into commercial aquaculture in the eastern Adriatic Sea.

In order to detect the possible regulatory effect of non-native C. gigas on the native O. edulis, under aquaculture conditions, feeding interactions between them were investigated in a highly productive environment of Lim Bay (Adriatic Sea). The present study uses a multi-methodological approach, including stomach content, DNA barcoding and stable isotope analysis to elucidate the feeding ecology of two oyster species. The research confirmed a high overlap throughout the year in the feeding traits among native and non-native oyster species. Competition for food was not the only relationship that exists between the investigated species as the presence of O. edulis larvae in C. gigas stomach content was confirmed by DNA analysis. Findings are not in favour of introducing C. gigas to commercial aquaculture in any new areas in the Adriatic Sea and support the need to improve the existing O. edulis aquaculture and conserve its wild stocks.

Non-native species spread in a complex network: the interaction of global transport and local population dynamics determines invasion success.

The number of released individuals, which is a component of propagule pressure, is considered to be a major driver for the establishment success of non-native species. However, propagule pressure is often assumed to result from single or few release events, which does not necessarily apply to the frequent releases of invertebrates or other taxa through global transport. For instance, the high intensity of global shipping may result in frequent releases of large numbers of individuals, and the complexity of shipping dynamics impedes predictions of invasion dynamics. Here, we present a mathematical model for the spread of planktonic organisms by global shipping, using the history of movements by 33 566 ships among 1477 ports to simulate population dynamics for the comb jelly Mnemiopsis leidyi as a case study. The degree of propagule pressure at one site resulted from the coincident arrival of individuals from other sites with native or non-native populations. Key to sequential spread in European waters was a readily available source of propagules and a suitable recipient environment. These propagules were derived from previously introduced 'bridgehead' populations supplemented with those from native sources. Invasion success is therefore determined by the complex interaction of global shipping and local population dynamics. The general findings probably hold true for the spread of species in other complex systems, such as insects or plant seeds exchanged via commercial trade or transport.

Are Ponto-Caspian species able to cross salinity barriers? A case study of the gammarid Pontogammarus maeoticus.

Recently, Ponto-Caspian species (i.e., area of Azov, Black, and Caspian Seas) have invaded brackish and freshwater habitats of the North and Baltic Seas and the Laurentian Great Lakes in much higher numbers than expected based on shipping frequency and environmental conditions among these regions. Therefore, it has been suggested that Ponto-Caspian species may have inherent advantages over other species in colonizing new habitats, or that they are of freshwater origin. Artificial selection offers the possibility to investigate phenotypic plasticity, shifts in environmental tolerance, and heritability of environmentally sensitive traits; therefore, in this study, we conducted artificial selection experiments on Ponto-Caspian amphipod Pontogammarus maeoticus collected from 10 PSU to evaluate adaptation capacity of this species to different salinities, and to shed additional light on a possible freshwater origin of Ponto-Caspian invaders. Our results indicated that selection to lower salinity than that of the population's ambient salinity is possible within few generations due to a likely existence of standing polymorphic variation for selection to act on. In contrast, selection to higher salinity was unsuccessful because the phenotypic variation was mainly caused by environmental variance and therefore might depend on new mutations. Consequently, the results of our study suggest that the tested species might be of freshwater origin and lacks necessary genetic background for adaptation to fully marine conditions. Further selection studies using more species and populations, as well as molecular techniques, should be conducted to elucidate if other Ponto-Caspian invaders are of freshwater origin as well.