Missing Black males among preterm births in the US, 1995 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: In the US, non-Hispanic (NH) Black birthing persons show a two-fold greater risk of fetal death relative to NH white birthing persons. Since males more than females show a greater risk of fetal death, such loss in utero may affect the sex composition of live births born preterm (PTB; <37 weeks gestational age). We examine US birth data from 1995 to 2019 to determine whether the ratio of male to female preterm (i.e., PTB sex ratios) among NH Black births falls below that of NH whites and Hispanics. METHODS: We acquired data on all live births in the US from January 1995 to December 2019. We arrayed 63 million live births into 293 "conception cohort" months of which 2,475,928 NH Black, 5,746,953 NH white, and 2,511,450 Hispanic infants were PTB. We used linear regression methods to identify trend and seasonal patterns in PTB sex ratios. We also examined subgroup differences in PTB sex ratios (e.g., advanced maternal ages, twin gestations, and narrower gestational age ranges). RESULTS: The mean PTB sex ratio for NH Black births over the entire test period (1.06, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.05, 1.07) is much lower than that for NH white births (1.18, 95% CI: 1.17, 1.19). NH Black PTB sex ratios are especially low for twins and for births to mothers 35 years or older. Only NH white PTB sex ratios show a trend over the test period. CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of over 10 million PTBs reveals a persistently low male PTB frequency among NH Black conception cohorts relative to NH white cohorts. Low PTB sex ratios among NH Black births concentrate among subgroups that show an elevated risk of fetal death. PTB sex ratios may serve as an indicator of racial/ethnic and subgroup differences in fetal death, especially among male gestations.

Racial disparities in law enforcement/court-ordered psychiatric inpatient admissions after the 2008 recession: a test of the frustration-aggression-displacement hypothesis.

BACKGROUND: Societies under duress may selectively increase the reporting of disordered persons from vulnerable communities to law enforcement. Mentally ill African American males reportedly are perceived as more threatening relative to females and other race/ethnicities. We examine whether law enforcement/court order-requested involuntary psychiatric hospitalizations increased among African American males shortly after ambient economic decline-a widely characterized population stressor. METHODS: We identified psychiatric inpatient admissions requested by law enforcement/court orders from 2006 to 2011 across four US states (Arizona, California, New York, North Carolina). Our analytic sample comprises 13.1 million psychiatric inpatient admissions across 95 counties over 72 months. We operationalized exposure to economic downturns as percent change in monthly employment in a metropolitan statistical area (MSA). We used zero inflated negative binomial and linear fixed effects regression analyses to examine psychiatric inpatient admissions requested by law enforcement/court orders following regional employment decline over a time period that includes the Great Recession of 2008. FINDINGS: Declines in monthly employment precede by one month a 6% increase in psychiatric hospitalizations requested by law enforcement/court order among African American males (p < 0.05), but not among other race/sex groups. Estimates amount to an excess of 2554 involuntary admissions among African American males statistically attributable to aggregate-level employment decline. CONCLUSIONS: Economic downturns may increase involuntary psychiatric commitments among African American males. Our findings underscore the unique vulnerability of racial/ethnic minorities during economic contractions.

Family cash transfers in childhood and birthing persons and birth outcomes later in life.

Much literature in the US documents an intergenerational transmission of birthing person and perinatal morbidity in socioeconomically disadvantaged groups. A separate line of work indicates that family cash transfers may improve life chances of low-income families well into adulthood. By exploiting a quasi-random natural experiment of a large family cash transfer among a southeastern American Indian (AI) tribe in rural North Carolina, we examine whether a "perturbation" in socioeconomic status during childhood improves birthing person/perinatal outcomes when they become parents themselves. We acquired birth records on 6805 AI and non-AI infants born from 1995 to 2018. Regression methods to examine effect modification tested whether the birthing person's American Indian (AI) status and exposure to the family cash transfer during their childhood years corresponds with improvements in birthing person and perinatal outcomes. Findings show an increase in age at childbearing (coef: 0.15 years, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.05, 0.25) and a decrease in pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI; coef: -0.42, 95% CI: -0.76, -0.09) with increased duration of cash transfer exposure during childhood. The odds of large-for-gestational age at delivery, as well as mean infant birthweight, is also reduced among AI births whose birthing person had relatively longer duration of exposure to the cash transfer. We, however, observe no relation with other birthing person/perinatal outcomes (e.g., tobacco use during pregnancy, preterm birth). In this rural AI population, cash transfers in one generation correspond with improved birthing person and infant health in the next generation.

Preterm births among male and female conception cohorts in France during initial COVID-19 societal restrictions.

PURPOSE: A recent meta-analysis finds reduced risk of preterm birth (PTB; <37 weeks gestational age) during the initial stage of COVID-19 in which infection rates remained relatively low but many societies imposed restrictions on movement. None of this work, however, examines sex-specific responses despite much literature on other ambient "shocks" which would predict male sensitivity. We use a conception cohort approach to explore potential sex-specific PTB responses in France, a country which imposed a lockdown in Spring 2020. METHODS: We applied interrupted time series methods using national data in France for 207 weeks among 1403,284 males and 1341,359 females conceived from 19 Jan 2016 to 6 Jan 2020. RESULTS: For males in utero, the 1st COVID-19 societal lockdown corresponds with a - 0.60 per 100 conception reduction in PTB cases per week, for 12 consecutive weeks (95% confidence interval [CI]: -.36, -.84). For females in utero, the PTB reduction is smaller (-0.40 reduction per 100 conceptions, for 10 consecutive weeks, 95% CI: -.15, -.61). A formal test of sex differences in the PTB response indicates a stronger reduction in male (vs. female) PTB during the lockdown (p = .001). CONCLUSIONS: Explanations for the counterintuitive reduction in PTB during COVID-19 among cohorts in utero during Spring 2020 should consider mechanisms that disproportionately affect males.

National Trends in Suicides and Male Twin Live Births in the US, 2003 to 2019: An Updated Test of Collective Optimism and Selection in Utero.

Prior research based on Swedish data suggests that collective optimism, as measured by monthly incidence of suicides, correlates inversely with selection in utero against male twins in a population. We test this finding in the US, which reports the highest suicide rate of all high-income countries, and examine whether monthly changes in overall suicides precede changes in the ratio of male twin to male singleton live births. Consistent with prior work, we also examine as a key independent variable, suicides among women aged 15-49 years. We retrieved monthly data on suicides and the ratio of male twin to singleton live births from CDC WONDER, 2003 to 2019, and applied Box-Jenkins iterative time-series routines to detect and remove autocorrelation from both series. Results indicate that a 1% increase in monthly change in overall suicides precedes a 0.005 unit decline in male twin live births ratio 6 months later (coefficient = -.005, p value = .004). Results remain robust to use of suicides among reproductive-aged women as the independent variable (coefficient = -.0012, p value = .014). Our study lends external validity to prior research and supports the notion that a decline in collective optimism corresponds with greater selection in utero.

Casino-based cash transfers and fertility among the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians in North Carolina: A time-series analysis.

Fertility decline remains a key concern among high-income countries. Prior research indicates that income supplementation through unconditional cash transfers (UCT) may correspond with increased fertility. We examine whether a casino-based UCT, in the form of per capita (percap) payments to members of the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians (EBCI) corresponds with an acute increase in fertility. We use North Carolina vital statistics datasets from 1990 to 2006 and apply time-series analysis methods to examine the relation between specific months of percap payments (exposure) and monthly number of conceptions that result in live births (outcome) among the EBCI. We control for autocorrelation and monthly counts of births (arrayed by conception cohorts) among white women (ineligible for UCT receipt) in the study region. Results indicate an increase in conceptions that result in live births at 1 and 3 months after percap receipt among EBCI women aged ≥20 years (exposure month lag 1 coefficient = 1.74, p = 0.03; exposure month lag 3 coefficient = 1.60, p = 0.04). Exploratory analyses indicate that the observed fertility increase concentrates among primiparae EBCI women. We do not find any association between percap payment timing and births to EBCI women aged <20 years.

Cannabis Vape Product Sales in California Following CDC's Initial Advisory About Lung Injuries.

Introduction: The 2019 outbreak of e-cigarette or vaping product use-associated lung injury (EVALI) is believed to have been caused by vitamin E acetate, an additive used in some cannabis vaporizer products. Previous studies have primarily focused on changes in sales of electronic nicotine delivery systems following the initial advisory issued by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) on August 17, 2019. The present study is intended to examine variation by age groups in sales of regulated cannabis vape products in the state of California before, during, and after the outbreak. Methods: Weekly sales revenue of cannabis vape products (from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2020) was obtained from a sample of recreational cannabis retailers licensed in California. An interrupted time series analysis, using AutoRegressive, Integrated, Moving Average methods, was employed to estimate changes in the sales and market share of cannabis vape products in the weeks following the CDC advisory. Results: The total volume of regulated cannabis vape product sales increased substantially over the 3-year study period (2018-2020). Sales and market share of cannabis vape products, however, declined in both young and older adults immediately following the advisory, rebounding to pre-EVALI levels only for the young adults. For sales, the potential EVALI effect following the CDC's advisory equates to an 8.0% and 2.2% decline below expected levels in the older and young adults, respectively. Conclusions: The differential age effect on sales may reflect concerns regarding health effects of cannabis vaping products and greater awareness of the outbreak among older adults. Findings highlight the importance of informing consumers about health risks associated with using cannabis vape products acquired from regulated versus illicit sources.

Disparities in preterm birth following the July 1995 Chicago heat wave.

PURPOSE: To evaluate if changes in preterm birth (PTB, <37 weeks of gestation) incidence differed between non-Hispanic (NH) Black and NH white births following the July 1995 Chicago heat wave-among the most severe U.S. heat waves since 1950. METHODS: We used an ecologic study design. We obtained birth data from January 1990-December 1996 from the National Vital Statistics File to calculate the mean monthly PTB incidence in Chicago's Cook County, Illinois. Births between July 1995 and February 1996 were potentially exposed to the heat wave in utero. We generated time series models for NH Black and NH white births, which incorporated synthetic controls of Cook County based on unexposed counties. We ran a secondary analysis considering socioeconomic status (SES). RESULTS: From 1990-1996, the mean monthly PTB incidence among NH Black births was 18.6% compared to 7.8% among NH white births. The mean monthly PTB incidence among NH Black births from August 1995-January 1996 was 16.7% higher than expected (three additional PTBs per 100 live births per month [95% confidence interval (CI): 1, 5]). A similar increase occurred among low-SES NH Black births. No increase appeared among NH white births. CONCLUSIONS: Severe heat waves may increase racial disparities in PTB incidence.

A novel approach to estimate the impact of health workforce investments on health outcomes through increased coverage of HIV, TB and malaria services.

BACKGROUND: Globally, HIV, TB and malaria account for an estimated three million deaths annually. The Global Fund partnered with the World Health Organization to assist countries with health workforce planning in these areas through the development of an integrated health workforce investment impact tool. Our study illustrates the development of a user-friendly tool (with two MS Excel calculator subcomponents) that computes associations between human resources for health (HRH) investment inputs and reduced morbidity and mortality from HIV, TB, and malaria via increased coverage of effective treatment services. METHODS: We retrieved from the peer-reviewed literature quantitative estimates of the relation among HRH inputs and HRH employment and productivity. We converted these values to additional full-time-equivalent doctors, nurses and midwives (DNMs). We used log-linear regression to estimate the relation between DNMs and treatment service coverage outcomes for HIV, TB, and malaria. We then retrieved treatment effectiveness parameters from the literature to calculate lives saved due to expanded treatment coverage for HIV, TB, and malaria. After integrating these estimates into the tool, we piloted it in four countries. RESULTS: In most countries with a considerable burden of HIV, TB, and malaria, the health workforce investments include a mix of pre-service education, full remuneration of new hires, various forms of incentives and in-service training. These investments were associated with elevated HIV, TB and malaria treatment service coverage and additional lives saved. The country case studies we developed in addition, indicate the feasibility and utility of the tool for a variety of international and local actors interested in HRH planning. CONCLUSIONS: The modelled estimates developed for illustrative purposes and tested through country case studies suggest that HRH investments result in lives saved across HIV, TB, and malaria. Furthermore, findings show that attainment of high targets of specific treatment coverage indicators would require a substantially greater health workforce than what is currently available in most LMICs. The open access tool can assist with future HRH planning efforts, particularly in LMICs.

Association of the 2021 Child Tax Credit Advance Payments With Low Birth Weight in the US.

Importance: Infants and pregnant people in the US fare worse on almost all health measures compared with those in peer nations. Families in the US are more likely to live in poverty and have a less generous social safety net, which has generated debate over the contribution of economic conditions to this disparity. Objective: To assess the association between temporary increases in income during pregnancy through the 2021 expanded Child Tax Credit (CTC) and birth outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study applied a comparison-population, interrupted time series design to data from US birth certificates (January 1, 2014, through December 31, 2021) to test whether the log odds of low birth weight (LBW) among monthly cohorts of births exposed to the CTC would coincide with a decreased incidence of LBW. All singleton live births to US residents aged 15 to 49 years with available data were included. Exposure: Monthly birth cohorts exposed to the CTC were defined as those born to parous people during the CTC advance payment period from July through December 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was the natural logarithm of the odds of LBW (<2500 g) among monthly birth cohorts. Results: Among included births (n = 28 866 466), 61.2% were to parous people, the majority were to people aged 20 to 39 years (91.7%), and 6.5% were born LBW. The odds of LBW increased above expected values in 5 of the 6 months of the CTC payments (range of increases, 3.3%-5.4% across the 5 months). The outlier-adjusted odds of LBW increased, on average, by 4.2% (95% CI, 2.7%-5.7%) among the monthly birth cohorts exposed to the CTC. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that the odds of LBW among birth cohorts exposed to the CTC increased above expected values in 5 of the 6 months of the CTC advance payments. Additional research is needed to evaluate rival explanations for this increase in LBW among births exposed to the CTC payments.

Antidepressant Prescription Behavior Among Primary Care Clinician Providers After an Interprofessional Primary Care Psychiatric Training Program.

Primary care providers (PCPs) are increasingly called upon to screen for and treat depression. However, PCPs often lack the training to diagnose and treat depression. We designed an innovative 12-month evidence and mentorship-based primary care psychiatric training program entitled the University of California, Irvine (UCI) School of Medicine Train New Trainers Primary Care Psychiatry (TNT PCP) Fellowship and examined whether this training impacted clinician prescription rates for antidepressants. We retrieved information on 18,844 patients and 192 PCPs from a publicly insured health program in Southern California receiving care between 2017 and 2021. Of the 192 PCPs, 42 received TNT training and 150 did not. We considered a patient as exposed to the provider's TNT treatment if they received care from a provider after the provider completed the 1-year fellowship. We utilized the number of antidepressant prescriptions per patient, per quarter-year as the dependent variable. Linear regression models controlled for provider characteristics and time trends. Robustness checks included clustering patients by provider identification. After PCPs completed TNT training, "exposed" patients received 0.154 more antidepressant prescriptions per quarter-year relative to expected levels (p < 0.01). Clustering of standard errors by provider characteristics reduced precision of the estimate (p < 0.10) but the direction and magnitude of the results were unchanged. Early results from the UCI TNT PCP Fellowship demonstrate enhanced antidepressant prescription behavior in PCPs who have undergone TNT training. A novel, and relatively low-cost, clinician training program holds the potential to empower PCPs to optimally deliver depression treatment.

Mental health symptoms following the January 6th attack on the United States Capitol.

On January 6, 2021, rioters stormed the US Capitol to overturn the Congressional certification of Joseph Biden as the 46th president of the United States. In previous work, the symbolic dis/empowerment framework, as a result of sociopolitical context, has influenced health outcomes in certain sub-populations. We examine whether the Capitol Riot corresponds with an increase in mental health symptoms and explore whether this relation differs by individual political party affiliation and/or state electoral college victory. We utilize the Understanding America Study, a nationally representative panel of adults, between March 10, 2020-July 11, 2021. Using fixed effects linear regression, we find a modest increase above expected levels in mental health symptoms immediately following the Capitol Riot. This result holds for Democrats overall, Democrats in Biden states, and when restricting analyses to only states that voted for Biden (or separately, for Trump). Democrats show the greatest increase of mental health symptoms following the Capital Riot, supporting the symbolic dis/empowerment framework as well as notions of political polarization and allegiance. Social and political events of national importance may adversely affect mental health of specific subpopulations.

A novel indicator of selection in utero.

Background and objectives: Selection in utero predicts that population stressors raise the standard for how quickly fetuses must grow to avoid spontaneous abortion. Tests of this prediction must use indirect indicators of fetal loss in birth cohorts because vital statistics systems typically register fetal deaths at the 20th week of gestation or later, well after most have occurred. We argue that tests of selection in utero would make greater progress if researchers adopted an indicator of selection against slow-growing fetuses that followed from theory, allowed sex-specific tests and used readily available data. We propose such an indicator and assess its validity as a dependent variable by comparing its values among monthly birth cohorts before, and during, the first 10 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden. Methodology: We apply Box-Jenkins methods to 50 pre-pandemic birth cohorts (i.e., December 2016 through January 2020) and use the resulting transfer functions to predict counterfactual values in our suggested indicator for selection for ten subsequent birth cohorts beginning in February 2020. We then plot all 60 residual values as well as their 95% detection interval. If birth cohorts in gestation at the onset of the pandemic lost more slow-growing fetuses than expected from history, more than one of the last 10 (i.e. pandemic-exposed) residuals would fall below the detection interval. Results: Four of the last 10 residuals of our indicator for males and for females fell below the 95% detection interval. Conclusions and implications: Consistent with selection in utero, Swedish birth cohorts in gestation at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic included fewer than expected infants who grew slowly in utero.

Changes in Acute ED Visits by Race/Ethnicity During the Early COVID-19 Pandemic.

Emergency department (ED) visits for conditions unrelated to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic decreased during the early pandemic, raising concerns about critically ill patients forgoing care and increasing their risk of adverse outcomes. It is unclear if Hispanic and Black adults, who have a high prevalence of chronic conditions, sought medical assistance for acute emergencies during this time. This study used 2018-2020 ED visit data from the largest safety net hospital in Los Angeles County to estimate ED visit differences for cardiac emergencies, diabetic complications, and strokes, during the first societal lockdown among Black and Hispanic patients using time series analyses. Emergency department visits were lower than the expected levels during the first societal lockdown. However, after the lockdown ended, Black patients experienced a rebound in ED visits while visits for Hispanics remained depressed. Future research could identify barriers Hispanics experienced that contributed to prolonged ED avoidance.

Excess Injury Mortality in Washington State During the 2021 Heat Wave.

PUBLIC HEALTH IMPLICATIONS: Under global warming scenarios, heat waves of this magnitude will become much more common. Adaptation and planning efforts are needed to protect residents of the historically temperate Pacific Northwest for a range of health outcomes. (Am J Public Health. 2023;113(6):657-660. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307269).

New York City's Stop, Question, and Frisk Policy and Psychiatric Emergencies among Black Americans.

Under the Stop, Question, and Frisk (SQF) policy, New York City (NYC) police stopped Black Americans at more than twice the rate of non-Hispanic whites, after controlling for arrests and precinct differences. We examined whether police stops of Black Americans during SQF correspond positively with psychiatric emergency department (ED) visits among Black residents in NYC. We utilized as the exposure all police stops, stops including frisking, and stops including use of force among Black Americans in NYC between 2006 and 2015 from the New York City Police Department's New York City-Stop, Question, and Frisk database. We examined 938,356 outpatient psychiatric ED visits among Black Americans in NYC between 2006 and 2015 from the Statewide Emergency Department Database (SEDD). We applied Box-Jenkins time-series methods to control for monthly temporal patterns. Results indicate that all stops, frisking, and use of force of Black residents correspond with increased psychiatric ED visits among Black Americans in NYC (all stops-coef = 0.024, 95%CI = 0.006, 0.043; frisking-coef = 0.048, 95%CI = 0.015, 0.080; use of force-coef = 0.109, 95%CI = 0.028, 0.190). Our findings indicate that a one standard deviation increase in police stops equates to a 2.72% increase in psychiatric ED visits among Black residents in NYC. Use of force may have the greatest mental health consequences due to perceived threats of physical violence or bodily harm to other members of the targeted group. Racially biased and unconstitutional police encounters may have acute mental health implications for the broader Black community not directly involved in the encounter itself.

Expectations of non-COVID-19 deaths during the pre-vaccine pandemic: a process-control approach.

BACKGROUND: Debate over "social distancing" as a response to the pandemic includes the claim that disrupting clinical and public health programming dependent on human-to-human contact increased non-COVID-19 deaths. This claim warrants testing because novel pathogens will continue to emerge. Tests, however, appear frustrated by lack of a convention for estimating non-COVID-19 deaths that would have occurred had clinical and public health programming during the pre-vaccine pandemic remained as efficacious as in the pre-pandemic era. Intending to hasten the emergence of such a convention, we describe and demonstrate "new-signal, prior-response expectations" suggested by research and methods at the intersection of epidemiology and process control engineering. METHODS: Using German data, we estimate pre-pandemic public health efficacy by applying Box-Jenkins methods to 271 weekly counts of all-cause deaths from December 29 2014 through March 8 2020. We devise new-signal, prior-response expectations by applying the model to weekly non-COVID-19 deaths from March 9 2020 through December 26 2020. RESULTS: The COVID-19 pandemic did not coincide with more non-COVID-19 deaths than expected from the efficacy of responses to pre-pandemic all-cause deaths. CONCLUSIONS: New-signal, prior-response estimates can contribute to evaluating the efficacy of public health programming in reducing non-COVID-19 deaths during the pre-vaccine pandemic.

Sanctuary city policies and Latinx immigrant mental health in California.

This quasi-experimental study examined whether "sanctuary city" policies are an effective mechanism for reducing mental health inequalities by immigrant origin status in Latinx populations in California. Ample evidence indicates that people experience mental health problems when restrictive immigration policies are imposed. It remains unclear whether sanctuary city policies can improve population mental health in the groups targeted by restrictive immigration policies: undocumented immigrant Latinxs, documented immigrant Latinxs, and native-born Latinxs. We combined data on California's 482 cities concerning whether and when they implemented a sanctuary policy with health data on approximately 142,000 adults, 6400 adolescents and 13,000 children from the multi-year California Health Interview Survey. After using propensity score matching to identify non-sanctuary cities comparable to sanctuary cities, we estimated respondent-level difference-in-differences models to determine whether sanctuary city policies had beneficial mental health effects on three age groups: adults, adolescents, and children during the period 2007-2018. There was a trend toward improved mental health in sanctuary cities after policy enactment, but the patterns of mental health in the three Latinx immigration sub-groups of each age group did not conform to our hypotheses. Buffering the adverse effects of harsh federal immigration policies may need to involve other approaches, such as expanded local mental health care access. We discuss these results in terms of alternative treatment interference, residents' policy awareness, the policy's capacity to address past health impacts, methodological issues, and potential policy momentum.

Stress/depression across the COVID-19 pandemic in Denmark.

BACKGROUND: Global estimates suggest strained mental health during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, but the lack of nationally representative and longitudinal data with clinically validated measures limits knowledge longer into the pandemic. METHODS: Data from 10 rounds of nationally representative surveys from Denmark tracked trends in risk of stress/depression from just before the first lockdown and through to April 2022. We focused on age groups and men and women in different living arrangements and controlled for seasonality in mental health that could otherwise be spuriously related to pandemic intensity. RESULTS: Prior to first lockdown, we observed a "parent gap", which closed with the first lockdown. Instead, a gender gap materialized, with women experiencing higher risks than men-and higher than levels predating first lockdown. Older respondents (+ 70 years) experienced increasing risks of stress/depression early in the pandemic, while all other groups experienced decreases. But longer into the pandemic, risks increased for all age groups and reached (and sometimes exceeded) levels from before first lockdown. CONCLUSION: Denmark had low infection rates throughout most of the pandemic, low mortality rates across the entire pandemic, and offered financial aid packages to curb financial strains. Despite this circumstance, initial improvements to mental health during the first lockdown in Denmark were short-lived. Two years of pandemic societal restrictions correspond with deteriorating mental health, as well as a change from a parenthood gap in mental health before first lockdown to a gender gap two years into the pandemic.