The ecology of influenza A viruses in wild birds in southern Africa.

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are pathogens of global concern, but there has been little previous research on avian influenza in southern Africa and almost nothing is known about the dynamics of AIVs in the region. We counted, captured and sampled birds regularly at five sites, two in South Africa (Barberspan and Strandfontein) and one in each of Botswana (Lake Ngami), Mozambique (Lake Chuali) and Zimbabwe (Lakes Manyame and Chivero) between March 2007 and May 2009. The South African and Zimbabwean sites were visited every 2 months and the sites in Botswana and Mozambique every 4 months. During each visit we undertook 5-7 days of standardised bird counts followed by 5-10 days of capturing and sampling water-associated birds. We sampled 4,977 birds of 165 different species and completed 2,503 half-hour point counts. We found 125 positive rRT-PCR cases of avian influenza across all sites. Two viruses (H1N8 and H3N8) were isolated and additional H5, H6 and H7 strains were identified. We did not positively identify any highly pathogenic H5N1. Overall viral prevalence (2.51%) was similar to the lower range of European values, considerable spatial and temporal variation occurred in viral prevalence, and there was no detectable influence of the annual influx of Palearctic migrants. Although waterbirds appear to be the primary viral carriers, passerines may link wild birds and poultry. While influenza cycles are probably driven by the bird movements that result from rainfall patterns, the epidemiology of avian influenza in wild birds in the subregion is complex and there appears to be the possibility for viral transmission throughout the year.

A silver spoon for a golden future: long-term effects of natal origin on fitness prospects of oystercatchers (Haematopus ostralegus).

1. Long-term effects of conditions during early development on fitness are important for life history evolution and population ecology. Using multistrata mark-recapture models on 20 years of data, we quantified the relation between rearing conditions and lifetime fitness in a long-lived shorebird, the oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus). We addressed specifically the relative contribution of short- and long-term effects of rearing conditions to overall fitness consequences. 2. Rearing conditions were defined by differences in natal habitat quality, in which there is a clear dichotomy in our study population. In the first year of life, fledglings from high-quality natal origin had a 1.3 times higher juvenile survival. Later in life (age 3-11), individuals of high-quality natal origin had a 1.6 times higher adult prebreeder survival. The most striking effect of natal habitat quality was that birds that were reared on high-quality territories had a higher probability of settling in high-quality habitat (44% vs. 6%). Lifetime reproductive success of individuals born in high-quality habitat was 2.2 times higher than that of individuals born in low-quality habitat. This difference increased further when fitness was calculated over several generations, due to a correlation between the quality of rearing conditions of parents and their offspring. 3. Long-term effects of early conditions contributed more to overall fitness differences as short-term consequences, contrary to common conceptions on this issue. 4. This study illustrates that investigating only short-term effects of early conditions can lead to the large underestimation of fitness consequences. We discuss how long-term consequences of early conditions may affect settlement decisions and source-sink population interactions.