Inequalities in Exposure to Firearm Violence by Race, Sex, and Birth Cohort From Childhood to Age 40 Years, 1995-2021.

Importance: The past quarter-century has seen both sharp declines and increases in firearm violence in the United States. Yet, little is known about the age of first exposure to firearm violence and how it may differ by race, sex, and cohort. Objective: To examine race, sex, and cohort differences in exposure to firearm violence in a representative longitudinal study of children who grew up in periods with varying rates of firearm violence in the United States and to examine spatial proximity to firearm violence in adulthood. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based representative cohort study included multiple cohorts of children followed-up from 1995 through 2021 in the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods (PHDCN). Participants included Black, Hispanic, and White respondents from 4 age cohorts of Chicago, Illinois, residents, with modal birth years of 1981, 1984, 1987, and 1996. Data analyses were conducted from May 2022 to March 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: Firearm violence exposure, including age when first shot, age when first saw someone shot, and past-year frequency of fatal and nonfatal shootings within 250 m of residence. Results: There were 2418 participants in wave 1 (in the mid-1990s), and they were evenly split by sex, with 1209 males (50.00%) and 1209 females (50.00%). There were 890 Black respondents, 1146 Hispanic respondents, and 382 White respondents. Male respondents were much more likely than female respondents to have been shot (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 4.23; 95% CI, 2.28-7.84), but only moderately more likely to have seen someone shot (aHR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.27-1.72). Compared with White individuals, Black individuals experienced higher rates of all 3 forms of exposure (been shot: aHR, 3.05; 95% CI, 1.22-7.60; seen someone shot: aHR, 4.69; 95% CI, 3.41-6.46; nearby shootings: adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR], 12.40; 95% CI, 6.88-22.35), and Hispanic respondents experienced higher rates of 2 forms of violence exposure (seen someone shot: aHR, 2.59; 95% CI, 1.85-3.62; nearby shootings: aIRR, 3.77; 95% CI, 2.08-6.84). Respondents born in the mid-1990s who grew up amidst large declines in homicide but reached adulthood during city and national spikes in firearm violence in 2016 were less likely to have seen someone shot than those born in the early 1980s who grew up during the peak of homicide in the early 1990s (aHR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.35-0.69). However, the likelihood of having been shot did not significantly differ between these cohorts (aHR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.40-1.63). Conclusions and Relevance: In this longitudinal multicohort study of exposure to firearm violence, there were stark differences by race and sex, yet the extent of exposure to violence was not simply the product of these characteristics. These findings on cohort differences suggest changing societal conditions were key factors associated with whether and at what life stage individuals from all race and sex groups were exposed to firearm violence.

Cohort Profile: Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods and Its Additions (PHDCN+).

The Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods (PHDCN) began in the mid-1990s, using an accelerated longitudinal design and drawing a representative sample of over 6200 children from a total of seven birth cohorts (ages 0 to 18) living in Chicago. Participants were followed for a second and third wave of data collection ending in 1998 and 2002, respectively. Independent surveys and observations on Chicago neighborhoods were also conducted. In 2012, a random subsample from cohorts 0, 9, 12, and 15 was selected for further follow-up, resulting in 1057 wave 4 interviews. In 2021, a fifth wave was launched to locate and survey wave 4 respondents, resulting in 682 responses. The extension to waves 4 and 5, termed the PHDCN+, is the main focus of this cohort profile. Survey data were collected from many domains including, but not limited to, family relationships, exposure to violence and guns, neighborhood context, self-reported crime, encounters with the police, attitudes toward the law, health, and civic engagement. In addition, official criminal records were collected for 1995-2020. The resulting PHDCN+ data includes five waves of comprehensive survey data, residential histories, neighborhood contextual data, and criminal histories extending over 25 years for four cohorts differing in age by up to 15 years. The research design, measures, key findings from the cohort sequential design, and data access opportunities are discussed.

Pubertal Timing and Adolescent Alcohol Use: The Mediating Role of Parental and Peer Influences.

Using intergenerational, prospective data at ages 9 months, 7, 11, and 14 years from the nationally representative United Kingdom Millennium Cohort Study, this interdisciplinary study unpacks why 14-year-old adolescents with early perceived pubertal timing (PT) were more likely to drink alcohol (ever, frequent, and binge drinking) compared to those whose PT was on-time or late (5,757 girls, 5,799 boys; 80% White, 10% Asian, 3% Black, and 7% Other British). Parents allowed drinking among 22% (18%) of early PT girls (boys) compared to 11% of late PT adolescents; formal mediation models showed differences by PT in parent permissiveness and gains in alcohol-using friends primarily explained age 14 PT-drinking associations. Parental alcohol permissiveness should be a key prevention target for early PT adolescents.

Changes in Externalizing Behaviors After Children First Have an Alcoholic Drink and First Drink Heavily.

OBJECTIVE: Proximal changes in externalizing behaviors before and after children and early adolescents have their first alcoholic drink and first heavy drinking episode are examined using intergenerational, prospective data from the ongoing U.K. national Millennium Cohort Study (10,529 child-parent pairs followed over 35,406 occasions). METHOD: We examined how within-person changes in externalizing behaviors (based on parental reports on the Strengths and Difficulties scale when children were modal ages 5, 7, 11, and 14 years) follow children's age at first alcoholic drink (AFD) and age at first heavy drinking (AFHD), based on confidential child self-reports at ages 11 and 14 years. Analyses controlled for child age, time-varying parent-level confounders (parental education and alcohol abstention), and time-stable selection factors. RESULTS: Estimates from fixed-effects Poisson models revealed a 5% increase in the expected count of externalizing behaviors after children have their first alcoholic drink (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.05, 95% CI [1.03, 1.07]), and a 13% increase after first drinking heavily (IRR = 1.13, 95% CI [1.09, 1.18]), independent of key time-varying and all time-stable individual differences. CONCLUSIONS: Early AFHD and unobserved time-stable selection factors partially explain relationships between early drinking and problem behaviors, but early AFD continues to be a significant predictor of externalizing behavior. Although prevention efforts should continue to discourage heavy drinking in childhood and early adolescence, the results suggest that both AFHD and AFD should be delayed.