Assessing the effectiveness of marine nature-based solutions with climate risk assessments.

Prospective risks from climate change impacts in ocean and coastal systems are urging the implementation of nature-based solutions (NBS). These are climate-resilient strategies to maintain biodiversity and the delivery of ecosystem services, contributing to the adaptation of social-ecological systems and the mitigation of climate-related impacts. However, the effectiveness of measures like marine restoration or conservation is not exempt from the impacts of climate change, and the degree to which they can sustain biodiversity and ecosystem services remains unknown. Such uncertainty, together with the slow pace of implementation, causes decision-makers and societies to demand a better understanding of NBS effects. To address this gap, in this study, we use the risk mitigation capacity of marine NBS as a proxy for their effectiveness while providing a toolset for the implementation of the method. The method considers environmental data and relies on expert elicitation, allowing us to go beyond current practice to evaluate the effectiveness of NBS in reducing habitat or species risks under different future socio-political and climate-change scenarios. As a result, we present a ready-to-use tool, and supporting materials, for the implementation of the Climate Risk Assessment method and an illustrative example considering the application of the NBS "nature-inclusive harvesting" in two shellfisheries. The method works as a rapid assessment that guarantees comparability across sites and species due to its low data or resource demand, so it can be widely incorporated to adaptation policies across the marine realm.

Short and long-term temperature variations drive recruitment variability in marine and estuarine juvenile fishes.

Understanding the long-term effects of climatic factors on key species' recruitment is crucial to species management and conservation. Here, we analysed the recruitment variability of key species (Dicentrarchus labrax, Platichthys flesus, Solea solea, Pomatoschistus microps and Pomatoschistus minutus) in an estuary between 2003 and 2019, and related it with the prevailing local and large-scale environmental factors. Using a dynamic factor analysis (DFA), juvenile abundance data were grouped into three common trends linked to different habitat uses and life cycle characteristics, with significant effect of temperature-related variables on fish recruitment: Sea surface temperature and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. In 2010, a regime shift in the North Atlantic coincided with a shift in the common trends, particularly a decline in P. flesus and S. solea trend. This work highlights the thermophilic character of fish recruitment and the necessity to investigate key biological processes in the context of species-specific responses to climate change.

Ecological sensitivity and vulnerability of fishing fleet landings to climate change across regions.

The degree of exposure of fishing communities to environmental changes can be partially determined by the vulnerability of the target species and the landings composition. Hence, identifying the species that ecologically most contribute to the vulnerability of the landings are key steps to evaluate the risk posed by climate change. We analyse the temporal variability in intrinsic sensitivity and the ecological vulnerability of the Portuguese fisheries landings, considering the species proportions derived both from the weights and revenues. To account for the diversification of species of each fleet, we explored the species dependence of the fishery in combination with the vulnerability of them. The analyses were carried out separately for three fleet typologies and three regions. Opposite to what has been observed at a global scale, the ecological sensitivity of the fisheries landings between 1989 and 2015 did not display a decline across areas or fishing fleets. Considering each fleet independently, for trawling, where average vulnerability was lower than in the other fleets, the sensitivity of the landings increased since the 2000s. On the other hand, the high vulnerability found in multi-gear fleets was compensated by diversification of the species caught, while purse-seine fleets targeted low vulnerability species but presented a high fishery dependence on few species. The results highlight the importance of combining information on ecological vulnerability and diversification of fishing resources at a regional scale while providing a measure of the ecological exposure to climate change.

Fatty acid ratio analysis identifies changes in competent meroplanktonic larvae sampled over different supply events.

Planktonic communities are a cornerstone of ocean food webs. Early benthic performance of meroplanktonic organisms is shaped by their life stages in planktonic communities. Fatty acid profiles of marine invertebrates are a good indicator of their nutritional state and allow inferring how dietary regimes experienced during larval pelagic life may drive their pre- and post-metamorphosis performance. Fatty acid profiles of Carcinus maenas megalopae were analysed during four larval supply events in two consecutive years to better understand the variability in their nutritional state at settlement. The logratio analysis of fatty acids showed differences between the four larval supply events, with five ratios explaining 83.1% of the variance. The ratios that contributed to separate larval supply events presented a combination of essential, de novo synthetized and diet origin fatty acids (e.g., phytanate/20:4 n-6, 16:0/18:2 n-4). The high fatty acid signature dispersion found within the same supply event suggests that larvae settling at Ria de Aveiro (Portugal) developed through different planktonic feeding zones and experienced contrasting feeding regimes. The fatty acid profile of megalopae demonstrated a high contribution of diatoms, flagellates and bacteria in the larval diet of C. maenas. The present study demonstrated differences between supply events, although a high variability of larval phenotypes was recorded within the same supply event.

Assessing countries' social-ecological resilience to shifting marine commercial species.

Climate change is already impacting fisheries with species moving across fishing areas, crossing institutional borders, and thus creating conflicts over fisheries management. In this scenario, scholars agree that adaptation to climate change requires that fisheries increase their social, institutional, and ecological resilience. The resilience or capacity of a fishery to be maintained without shifting to a different state (e.g., collapse) is at stake under climate change impacts and overexploitation. Despite this urgent need, applying the resilience concept in a spatially explicit and quantitative manner to inform policy remains unexplored. We take a resilience approach and operationalize the concept in industrial fisheries for two species that have been observed to significantly shift distribution in European waters: hake (Merluccius merluccius) and cod (Gadus morhua), in the context of the European Union institutional settings. With a set of resilience factors from the literature and by means of contemporary and historic data, we select indicators that are combined into an index that measures resilience on the ecologic, socioeconomic, and institutional dimensions of the fishery. We find that the resilience index varies among species and countries, with lower resilience levels in the socioeconomic dimension of the fisheries. We also see that resilience largely depends on the overexploitation status of the fishery. The results highlight the need to address social and institutional settings to enhance fisheries adaptation to climate change and allow to inform on climate resilient adaptation pathways for the fisheries.

Climate change vulnerability assessment of the main marine commercial fish and invertebrates of Portugal.

This is the first attempt to apply an expert-based ecological vulnerability assessment of the effects of climate change on the main marine resources of Portugal. The vulnerability, exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and expected directional effects of 74 species of fish and invertebrates of commercial interest is estimated based on criteria related to their life-history and level of conservation or exploitation. This analysis is performed separately for three regions of Portugal and two scenarios of climate change (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). To do that, the fourth assessment report IPCC framework for vulnerability assessments was coupled to the outputs of a physical-biogeochemical model allowing to weight the exposure of the species by the expected variability of the environmental variables in the future. The highest vulnerabilities were found for some migratory and elasmobranch species, although overall vulnerability scores were low probably due to the high adaptive capacity of species from temperate ecosystems. Among regions, the highest average vulnerability was estimated for the species in the Central region while higher vulnerabilities were identified under climate change scenario RCP 8.5 in the three regions, due to higher expected climatic variability. This work establishes the basis for the assessment of the vulnerability of the human activities relying on marine resources in the context of climate change.

Deep-sea crustacean trawling fisheries in Portugal: quantification of effort and assessment of landings per unit effort using a Vessel Monitoring System (VMS).

Mapping and quantifying bottom trawling fishing pressure on the seafloor is pivotal to understand its effects on deep-sea benthic habitats. Using data from the Vessel Monitoring System of crustacean trawlers along the Portuguese margin, we have identified the most exploited areas and characterized the most targeted habitats and water depths. We estimated a total trawling effort of 69596, 66766, and 63427 h y-1 for the years 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively which, considering the total landings estimated for this gear, yield values of 20.76, 21.06, and 19.11 kg of landed fish per trawled hour. The main trawling pressure is exerted in the South and Southwest Portuguese margins, on muddy and muddy-sand bottoms between 200 and 700 m water depths, while in the North and Central-West coasts a minor effort, at shallower waters and across a wider range of habitats, is also applied. The most landed species are crustaceans such as rose shrimp and Norway lobster, although this varies importantly between the different regions of Portugal, being fish and cephalopods the main captures in the Northern ports. We discuss the consequences of trawling for the impacted communities as well as the characteristics of the commercialization of these captures in Portugal.