Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Biases and uncertainties at short range.

An analysis of diabatic heating and moistening processes from 12 to 36 h lead time forecasts from 12 Global Circulation Models are presented as part of the "Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)" project. A lead time of 12-36 h is chosen to constrain the large-scale dynamics and thermodynamics to be close to observations while avoiding being too close to the initial spin-up of the models as they adjust to being driven from the Years of Tropical Convection (YOTC) analysis. A comparison of the vertical velocity and rainfall with the observations and YOTC analysis suggests that the phases of convection associated with the MJO are constrained in most models at this lead time although the rainfall in the suppressed phase is typically overestimated. Although the large-scale dynamics is reasonably constrained, moistening and heating profiles have large intermodel spread. In particular, there are large spreads in convective heating and moistening at midlevels during the transition to active convection. Radiative heating and cloud parameters have the largest relative spread across models at upper levels during the active phase. A detailed analysis of time step behavior shows that some models show strong intermittency in rainfall and differences in the precipitation and dynamics relationship between models. The wealth of model outputs archived during this project is a very valuable resource for model developers beyond the study of the MJO. In addition, the findings of this study can inform the design of process model experiments, and inform the priorities for field experiments and future observing systems.

[Effect of air pollution upon the hospitalization for acute lower respiratory tract infections among the Bucharest municipality's residents]. / Efectul poluarii aeriene asupra frecventei spitalizarii pentru infectii acute ale cailor respiratori inferioare în populatia municipiului Bucuresti.

OBJECTIVE: Assessment of the short-term association between exposure to outdoor air pollution and hospitalization for lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) in the Bucharest municipality'spopulation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Relation exposure--health effect has been explored through linear regression upon time series, where the independent variable was represented by daily levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO), carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and ozone (O3) from atmospheric air of Bucharest municipality whereas the dependent variable has been represented by daily frequency, by age groups, of Bucharest municipality residents, hospitalized during the year 2007for LRTI (ICD-10 codes: J12-J22). RESULTS: In the year 2007, through linear regression we found high correlations (p < 0.01) between the following variables: (a) daily atmospheric concentrations of NO2, CO and SO2, (b) daily frequencies of hospitalizations for LRTI by age group and (c) daily air levels of three of the above mentioned pollutants and the age-specific frequencies of patient hospitalization for LRTI. The O3 daily air levels have been correlated (p < 0.01) only with the daily air levels of SO2 and CO but wasn't correlated to NO2 air level or with the health effect studied CONCLUSIONS: in the Bucharest municipality, the study demonstrated robust associations between the atmospheric pollutants' levels and daily frequencies of hospital admissions for LRTI. Through inference the results suggests that the interventions for environment control which will result in decreasing of the pollution level with NO2, CO and SO2 might be associated with decreasing the frequency of hospitalization for LRTI and consequently with preserving the resources allocated for health.