[Nomogram to predict a poor outcome in emergency patients with sepsis and at low risk of organ damage according to Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA)]. / Nomograma para predecir mal pronóstico en pacientes procedentes de urgencias con sepsis y bajo riesgo de daño orgánico evaluado mediante SOFA.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a nomograph to predict a poor outcome (death during hospitalization or a hospital stay longer than 15 days) in emergency patients with sepsis and at low risk of organ damage according to Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA). MATERIAL AND METHODS: Prospective, observational study carried out in a single universitary hospital. All patients admitted from the emergency department with sepsis and SOFA scores of 6 or lower were enrolled. We used bivariate logistic regression analysis to develop a predictive nomogram. RESULTS: A total of 174 patients were included. Seventeen patients (9.8%) died during hospitalization and the average hospital stay was greater than 15 days in 29 (16.7%) patient. The outcome was poor in a total of 42 patients (24.1%);. Independent variables that were significantly associated with a poor outcome were SOFA score (odds ratio [OR], 1.3; 95% CI, 1.06-1.71; P<.05), C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration (OR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.0-1.09; P<.05), N-terminal fragment of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentration over 1330 ng/mL (OR, 2.64; 95% CI, 1.17-6.22; P<.05), and septic shock (OR, 8.3; 95% CI, 1.16-166.5; P<.05). For a SOFA score of 2 or more the crude OR was 4.44 (95%, CI, 1.91-10.34) and the OR adjusted for other variables was 3.08 (95% CI, 1.24-7.69). CONCLUSION: A high percentage of patients predicted to be at low risk of organ failure had poor outcomes, associated with SOFA score, the presence of septic shock, CRP concentration, and elevated NT-proBNP concentration. The SOFA score by itself is an inadequate prognostic tool in patients at low risk of organ damage. Other clinical and analytical variables are required to complement the SOFA score.

OBJETIVO: Elaborar un nomograma que permita predecir el mal pronóstico (mortalidad durante el ingreso o estancia media > 15 días) en pacientes procedentes de urgencias con sepsis y baja probabilidad de daño orgánico evaluado por SOFA (Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment). METODO: Estudio observacional prospectivo realizado en un único hospital. Se incluyeron de forma consecutiva pacientes del servicio de urgencias con sepsis y SOFA igual o inferior a 6 puntos. Se realizó un análisis de regresión logística binaria y se elaboró un nomograma predictivo. RESULTADOS: Se incluyeron 174 pacientes. Diecisiete (9,8%) pacientes fallecieron durante la hospitalización y 29 (16,7%) tuvieron una estancia media prolongada. En total, 42 (24,1%) pacientes tuvieron mal pronóstico. Las variables independientes de mal pronóstico fueron: la puntuación SOFA (OR 1,3; IC 95% 1,06-1,71; p < 0,05), las concentraciones de proteína C reactiva (PCR) (OR 1,04; IC 95% 1-1,09; p < 0,05), NT-proBNP > 1.330 ng/ml (OR 2,64; IC 95% 1,17-6,22; p < 0,05) y la presencia de shock séptico (OR 8,3; IC 95% 1,16-166,5; p < 0,05). Si tenemos en cuenta el índice SOFA >= 2, la OR cruda fue 4,44 (IC 95% 1,91-10,34) y ajustada por el resto de variables fue de 3,08 (IC 95%, 1,24-7,69). CONCLUSIONES: Una elevada proporción de pacientes con baja probabilidad de tener daño orgánico tuvieron mal pronóstico en relación con la puntuación en la escala SOFA, la presencia de shock séptico, concentraciones de PCR y NTproBNP. La utilización de la escala pronóstica SOFA en pacientes con bajo riesgo es insuficiente para predecir el pronóstico en estos pacientes y se hace necesario complementarla con otras variables clínicas y analíticas.

The N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide is the best predictor of mortality during hospitalization in patients with low risk of sepsis-related organ failure. / El fragmento N-terminal del propéptido natriurético cerebral es el mejor predictor de mortalidad intrahospitalaria en pacientes con sepsis y bajo riesgo de lesión orgánica.

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study was to investigate the value of N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin (PCT) in predicting mortality in septic patients during hospitalization with mortality risk<10% evaluated by Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA). MATERIAL AND METHODS: Prospective, observational study performed in sepsis patients with SOFA risk<10%. We obtained levels of biomarkers in the first 72h after admission in hospital. All patients were monitored during hospitalization or until death. We used ROC curves to determine area under curve (AUC) and identify the best cutoff concentrations to predict mortality. RESULTS: A total of 174 patients were analyzed. Seventeen (9.8%) patients died during hospitalization. The AUC of NT-proBNP was 0.793 (95% CI 0.686-0.9; P<.0005) compared to AUC of CRP (0.728; 95% CI 0.617-0.839; P=.004) and AUC of PCT (0.684; 95% CI 0.557-0.811; P=.019). Factors independently associated with in-hospital mortality were NT-proBNP>1,330pg/ml (OR=23.23; 95% CI 2.92-182.25; P=.003) and to have predisposing factors (OR=3.05; 95% CI 1.3-9.3; P=.044) CONCLUSIONS: In patients with low mortality risk according to SOFA score, NT-proBNP obtained in the first 72h after admission prove to be a powerful predictor of mortality. Their implementations in clinical practice would improve the predictive ability of clinical severity scores.

[Strongyloides stercoralys as an unusual cause of COPD exacerbation]. / Strongyloides stercoralys: una peculiar forma de exacerbación en la EPOC.

The nematode of the genus Strongyloides can persist in the body for long periods with asymptomatic eosinophilia as its only manifestation. If patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are also infected by this organism, altered cellular immunity or therapy with corticosteroids, which are commonly used to treat COPD exacerbations, could lead to hyperinfection and dissemination of the larvae from the gastrointestinal tract to the bloodstream. Thus, the unexpected presence of enteric bacteria in the context of a nonsevere COPD exacerbation with unexplained chronic eosinophilia should lead us to search for rhabditiform larvae in stool.