Connectome dysfunction in patients at clinical high risk for psychosis and modulation by oxytocin.

Abnormalities in functional brain networks (functional connectome) are increasingly implicated in people at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P). Intranasal oxytocin, a potential novel treatment for the CHR-P state, modulates network topology in healthy individuals. However, its connectomic effects in people at CHR-P remain unknown. Forty-seven men (30 CHR-P and 17 healthy controls) received acute challenges of both intranasal oxytocin 40 IU and placebo in two parallel randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled cross-over studies which had similar but not identical designs. Multi-echo resting-state fMRI data was acquired at approximately 1 h post-dosing. Using a graph theoretical approach, the effects of group (CHR-P vs healthy control), treatment (oxytocin vs placebo) and respective interactions were tested on graph metrics describing the topology of the functional connectome. Group effects were observed in 12 regions (all pFDR < 0.05) most localised to the frontoparietal network. Treatment effects were found in 7 regions (all pFDR < 0.05) predominantly within the ventral attention network. Our major finding was that many effects of oxytocin on network topology differ across CHR-P and healthy individuals, with significant interaction effects observed in numerous subcortical regions strongly implicated in psychosis onset, such as the thalamus, pallidum and nucleus accumbens, and cortical regions which localised primarily to the default mode network (12 regions, all pFDR < 0.05). Collectively, our findings provide new insights on aberrant functional brain network organisation associated with psychosis risk and demonstrate, for the first time, that oxytocin modulates network topology in brain regions implicated in the pathophysiology of psychosis in a clinical status (CHR-P vs healthy control) specific manner.

Exploratory study of ultraviolet B (UVB) radiation and age of onset of bipolar disorder.

BACKGROUND: Sunlight contains ultraviolet B (UVB) radiation that triggers the production of vitamin D by skin. Vitamin D has widespread effects on brain function in both developing and adult brains. However, many people live at latitudes (about > 40 N or S) that do not receive enough UVB in winter to produce vitamin D. This exploratory study investigated the association between the age of onset of bipolar I disorder and the threshold for UVB sufficient for vitamin D production in a large global sample. METHODS: Data for 6972 patients with bipolar I disorder were obtained at 75 collection sites in 41 countries in both hemispheres. The best model to assess the relation between the threshold for UVB sufficient for vitamin D production and age of onset included 1 or more months below the threshold, family history of mood disorders, and birth cohort. All coefficients estimated at P ≤ 0.001. RESULTS: The 6972 patients had an onset in 582 locations in 70 countries, with a mean age of onset of 25.6 years. Of the onset locations, 34.0% had at least 1 month below the threshold for UVB sufficient for vitamin D production. The age of onset at locations with 1 or more months of less than or equal to the threshold for UVB was 1.66 years younger. CONCLUSION: UVB and vitamin D may have an important influence on the development of bipolar disorder. Study limitations included a lack of data on patient vitamin D levels, lifestyles, or supplement use. More study of the impacts of UVB and vitamin D in bipolar disorder is needed to evaluate this supposition.

Linguistic profile automated characterisation in pluripotential clinical high-risk mental state (CHARMS) conditions: methodology of a multicentre observational study.

INTRODUCTION: Language is usually considered the social vehicle of thought in intersubjective communications. However, the relationship between language and high-order cognition seems to evade this canonical and unidirectional description (ie, the notion of language as a simple means of thought communication). In recent years, clinical high at-risk mental state (CHARMS) criteria (evolved from the Ultra-High-Risk paradigm) and the introduction of the Clinical Staging system have been proposed to address the dynamicity of early psychopathology. At the same time, natural language processing (NLP) techniques have greatly evolved and have been successfully applied to investigate different neuropsychiatric conditions. The combination of at-risk mental state paradigm, clinical staging system and automated NLP methods, the latter applied on spoken language transcripts, could represent a useful and convenient approach to the problem of early psychopathological distress within a transdiagnostic risk paradigm. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Help-seeking young people presenting psychological distress (CHARMS+/- and Clinical Stage 1a or 1b; target sample size for both groups n=90) will be assessed through several psychometric tools and multiple speech analyses during an observational period of 1-year, in the context of an Italian multicentric study. Subjects will be enrolled in different contexts: Department of Neuroscience, Rehabilitation, Ophthalmology, Genetics, Maternal and Child Health (DINOGMI), Section of Psychiatry, University of Genoa-IRCCS Ospedale Policlinico San Martino, Genoa, Italy; Mental Health Department-territorial mental services (ASL 3-Genoa), Genoa, Italy; and Mental Health Department-territorial mental services (AUSL-Piacenza), Piacenza, Italy. The conversion rate to full-blown psychopathology (CS 2) will be evaluated over 2 years of clinical observation, to further confirm the predictive and discriminative value of CHARMS criteria and to verify the possibility of enriching them with several linguistic features, derived from a fine-grained automated linguistic analysis of speech. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The methodology described in this study adheres to ethical principles as formulated in the Declaration of Helsinki and is compatible with International Conference on Harmonization (ICH)-good clinical practice. The research protocol was reviewed and approved by two different ethics committees (CER Liguria approval code: 591/2020-id.10993; Comitato Etico dell'Area Vasta Emilia Nord approval code: 2022/0071963). Participants will provide their written informed consent prior to study enrolment and parental consent will be needed in the case of participants aged less than 18 years old. Experimental results will be carefully shared through publication in peer-reviewed journals, to ensure proper data reproducibility. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: DOI:10.17605/OSF.IO/BQZTN.

Association between polarity of first episode and solar insolation in bipolar I disorder.

OBJECTIVE: Circadian rhythm disruption is commonly observed in bipolar disorder (BD). Daylight is the most powerful signal to entrain the human circadian clock system. This exploratory study investigated if solar insolation at the onset location was associated with the polarity of the first episode of BD I. Solar insolation is the amount of electromagnetic energy from the Sun striking a surface area of the Earth. METHODS: Data from 7488 patients with BD I were collected at 75 sites in 42 countries. The first episode occurred at 591 onset locations in 67 countries at a wide range of latitudes in both hemispheres. Solar insolation values were obtained for every onset location, and the ratio of the minimum mean monthly insolation to the maximum mean monthly insolation was calculated. This ratio is largest near the equator (with little change in solar insolation over the year), and smallest near the poles (where winter insolation is very small compared to summer insolation). This ratio also applies to tropical locations which may have a cloudy wet and clear dry season, rather than winter and summer. RESULTS: The larger the change in solar insolation throughout the year (smaller the ratio between the minimum monthly and maximum monthly values), the greater the likelihood the first episode polarity was depression. Other associated variables were being female and increasing percentage of gross domestic product spent on country health expenditures. (All coefficients: P ≤ 0.001). CONCLUSION: Increased awareness and research into circadian dysfunction throughout the course of BD is warranted.

The Influence of 5-HTTLPR, BDNF Rs6265 and COMT Rs4680 Polymorphisms on Impulsivity in Bipolar Disorder: The Role of Gender.

Impulsivity has been proposed as an endophenotype for bipolar disorder (BD); moreover, impulsivity levels have been shown to carry prognostic significance and to be quality-of-life predictors. To date, reports about the genetic determinants of impulsivity in mood disorders are limited, with no studies on BD individuals. Individuals with BD and healthy controls (HC) were recruited in the context of an observational, multisite study (GECOBIP). Subjects were genotyped for three candidate single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (5-HTTLPR, COMT rs4680, BDNF rs6265); impulsivity was measured through the Italian version of the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11). A mixed-effects regression model was built, with BIS scores as dependent variables, genotypes of the three polymorphisms as fixed effects, and centers of enrollment as random effect. Compared to HC, scores for all BIS factors were higher among subjects with euthymic BD (adjusted ß for Total BIS score: 5.35, p < 0.001). No significant interaction effect was evident between disease status (HC vs. BD) and SNP status for any polymorphism. Considering the whole sample, BDNF Met/Met homozygosis was associated with lower BIS scores across all three factors (adjusted ß for Total BIS score: −10.2, p < 0.001). A significant 5-HTTLPR x gender interaction was found for the SS genotype, associated with higher BIS scores in females only (adjusted ß for Total BIS score: 12.0, p = 0.001). Finally, COMT polymorphism status was not significantly associated with BIS scores. In conclusion, BD diagnosis did not influence the effect on impulsivity scores for any of the three SNPs considered. Only one SNP­the BDNF rs6265 Met/Met homozygosis­was independently associated with lower impulsivity scores. The 5-HTTLPR SS genotype was associated with higher impulsivity scores in females only. Further studies adopting genome-wide screening in larger samples are needed to define the genetic basis of impulsivity in BD.

Variations in seasonal solar insolation are associated with a history of suicide attempts in bipolar I disorder.

BACKGROUND: Bipolar disorder is associated with circadian disruption and a high risk of suicidal behavior. In a previous exploratory study of patients with bipolar I disorder, we found that a history of suicide attempts was associated with differences between winter and summer levels of solar insolation. The purpose of this study was to confirm this finding using international data from 42% more collection sites and 25% more countries. METHODS: Data analyzed were from 71 prior and new collection sites in 40 countries at a wide range of latitudes. The analysis included 4876 patients with bipolar I disorder, 45% more data than previously analyzed. Of the patients, 1496 (30.7%) had a history of suicide attempt. Solar insolation data, the amount of the sun's electromagnetic energy striking the surface of the earth, was obtained for each onset location (479 locations in 64 countries). RESULTS: This analysis confirmed the results of the exploratory study with the same best model and slightly better statistical significance. There was a significant inverse association between a history of suicide attempts and the ratio of mean winter insolation to mean summer insolation (mean winter insolation/mean summer insolation). This ratio is largest near the equator which has little change in solar insolation over the year, and smallest near the poles where the winter insolation is very small compared to the summer insolation. Other variables in the model associated with an increased risk of suicide attempts were a history of alcohol or substance abuse, female gender, and younger birth cohort. The winter/summer insolation ratio was also replaced with the ratio of minimum mean monthly insolation to the maximum mean monthly insolation to accommodate insolation patterns in the tropics, and nearly identical results were found. All estimated coefficients were significant at p < 0.01. CONCLUSION: A large change in solar insolation, both between winter and summer and between the minimum and maximum monthly values, may increase the risk of suicide attempts in bipolar I disorder. With frequent circadian rhythm dysfunction and suicidal behavior in bipolar disorder, greater understanding of the optimal roles of daylight and electric lighting in circadian entrainment is needed.

Acute oxytocin effects in inferring others' beliefs and social emotions in people at clinical high risk for psychosis.

Social deficits are key hallmarks of the Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) state and of established psychotic disorders, and contribute to impaired social functioning, indicating a potential target for interventions. However, current treatments do not significantly ameliorate social impairments in CHR-P individuals. Given its critical role in social behaviour and cognition, the oxytocinergic (OT) system is a promising target for novel interventions in CHR-P subjects. In a double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover design, 30 CHR-P males were studied using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) on two occasions, once after 40IU self-administered intranasal OT and once after placebo. A modified version of the Sally-Anne task was used to assess brain activation during inferring others' beliefs and social emotions. The Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test was acquired prior to the first scan to test whether OT effects were moderated by baseline social-emotional abilities. OT did not modulate behavioural performances but reduced activation in the bilateral inferior frontal gyrus compared with placebo while inferring others' social emotions. Furthermore, the relationship between brain activation and task performance after OT administration was moderated by baseline social-emotional abilities. While task accuracy during inferring others' social emotion increased with decreasing activation in the left inferior frontal gyrus in CHR-P individuals with low social-emotional abilities, there was no such relationship in CHR-P individuals with high social-emotional abilities. Our findings may suggest that acute OT administration enhances neural efficiency in the inferior frontal gyrus during inferring others' social emotions in those CHR-P subjects with low baseline social-emotional abilities.

Neurochemical effects of oxytocin in people at clinical high risk for psychosis.

Alterations in neurochemical metabolites are thought to play a role in the pathophysiology of psychosis onset. Oxytocin, a neuropeptide with prosocial and anxiolytic properties, modulates glutamate neurotransmission in preclinical models but its neurochemical effects in people at high risk for psychosis are unknown. We used proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-MRS) to examine the effects of intranasal oxytocin on glutamate and other metabolites in people at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) in a double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover design. 30 CHR-P males were studied on two occasions, once after 40IU intranasal oxytocin and once after placebo. The effects of oxytocin on the concentration of glutamate, glutamate+glutamine and other metabolites (choline, N-acetylaspartate, myo-inositol) scaled to creatine were examined in the left thalamus, anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and left hippocampus, starting approximately 75, 84 and 93 min post-dosing, respectively. Relative to placebo, administration of oxytocin was associated with an increase in choline levels in the ACC (p=.008, Cohen's d = 0.54). There were no other significant effects on metabolite concentrations (all p>.05). Our findings suggest that, at ∼75-99 min post-dosing, a single dose of intranasal oxytocin does not alter levels of neurochemical metabolites in the thalamus, ACC, or hippocampus in those at CHR-P, aside from potential effects on choline in the ACC.

Oxytocin modulates hippocampal perfusion in people at clinical high risk for psychosis.

Preclinical and human studies suggest that hippocampal dysfunction is a key factor in the onset of psychosis. People at Clinical High Risk for psychosis (CHR-P) present with a clinical syndrome that can include social withdrawal and have a 20-35% risk of developing psychosis in the next 2 years. Recent research shows that resting hippocampal blood flow is altered in CHR-P individuals and predicts adverse clinical outcomes, such as non-remission/transition to frank psychosis. Previous work in healthy males indicates that a single dose of intranasal oxytocin has positive effects on social function and marked effects on resting hippocampal blood flow. The present study examined the effects of intranasal oxytocin on hippocampal blood flow in CHR-P individuals. In a double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover design, 30 CHR-P males were studied using pseudo-continuous Arterial Spin Labelling on 2 occasions, once after 40IU intranasal oxytocin and once after placebo. The effects of oxytocin on left hippocampal blood flow were examined in a region-of-interest analysis of data acquired at 22-28 and at 30-36 minutes post-intranasal administration. Relative to placebo, administration of oxytocin was associated with increased hippocampal blood flow at both time points (p = .0056; p = .034), although the effect at the second did not survive adjustment for the effect of global blood flow. These data indicate that oxytocin can modulate hippocampal function in CHR-P individuals and therefore merits further investigation as a candidate novel treatment for this group.

Semistructured Interview for Bipolar At Risk States (SIBARS).

The external prognostic accuracy of Bipolar At Risk (BAR) criteria is undetermined and no psychometric tools are available to measure them. We present here three studies that overcome these limitations. Study 1 and 2 investigated the prognostic accuracy (Harrell's C) of the original BAR and revised Bipolar At Risk States (BARS) criteria respectively for the prediction of bipolar disorders, using a retrospective cohort of individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P). Study 3 validated externally the prognostic accuracy of a newly developed Semistructured Interview of At Risk Bipolar States (SIBARS) in an independent prospective CHR-P cohort. In study 1 (n = 205), those meeting BAR criteria had an increased risk of developing bipolar disorders (HR = 5.30) relative to those not meeting them, but the prognostic accuracy was poor (Harrell's C = 0.659). In study 2 (n = 205), those meeting the refined BARS criteria had a higher risk of developing bipolar disorders than those not meeting them (HR = 12.364), with an adequate prognostic accuracy (Harrell's C = 0.777). Study 3 (n = 71) confirmed that SIBARS criteria had an adequate prognostic accuracy (Harrell's C = 0.742) and clinical utility. Overall, these findings suggest that the SIBARS could be used for the detection of individuals at risk of developing bipolar disorders in CHR-P services.

Diagnostic and Prognostic Significance of DSM-5 Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome in Services for Individuals at Ultra High Risk for Psychosis.

Background: The diagnostic and prognostic significance of the DSM-5-defined Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome (DSM-5-APS) in individuals undergoing an ultra high risk (UHR) clinical assessment for suspicion of psychosis risk is unknown. Methods: Prospective cohort study including all consecutive help-seeking individuals undergoing both a DSM-5-APS and a Comprehensive Assessment of At Risk Mental States (CAARMS 12/2006) assessment for psychosis risk at the Outreach and Support in South London (OASIS) UHR service (March 2013-April 2014). The diagnostic significance of DSM-5-APS was assessed with percent overall agreement, prevalence bias adjusted kappa, Bowker's test, Stuart-Maxwell test, residual analysis; the prognostic significance with Cox regression, Kaplan-Meier failure function, time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) and net benefits analysis. The impact of specific revisions of the DSM-5-APS was further tested. Result: In 203 help-seeking individuals undergoing UHR assessment, the agreement between the DSM-5-APS and the CAARMS 12/2006 was only moderate (kappa 0.59). Among 142 nonpsychotic cases, those meeting DSM-5-APS criteria had a 5-fold probability (HR = 5.379) of developing psychosis compared to those not meeting DSM-5-APS criteria, with a 21-month cumulative risk of psychosis of 28.17% vs 6.49%, respectively. The DSM-5-APS prognostic accuracy was acceptable (AUC 0.76 at 24 months) and similar to the CAARMS 12/2006. The DSM-5-APS designation may be clinically useful to guide the provision of indicated interventions within a 7%-35% (2-year) range of psychosis risk. The removal of the criterion E or C of the DSM-5-APS may improve its prognostic performance and transdiagnostic value. Conclusions: The DSM-5-APS designation may be clinically useful in individuals accessing clinical services for psychosis prevention.

Diagnostic and Prognostic Significance of Brief Limited Intermittent Psychotic Symptoms (BLIPS) in Individuals at Ultra High Risk.

BACKGROUND: Brief Limited Intermittent Psychotic Symptoms (BLIPS) are key inclusion criteria to define individuals at ultra high risk for psychosis (UHR). Their diagnostic and prognostic significance is unclear. OBJECTIVES: To address the baseline diagnostic relationship between BLIPS and the ICD-10 categories and examine the longitudinal prognostic impact of clinical and sociodemographic factors. METHODS: Prospective long-term study in UHR individuals meeting BLIPS criteria. Sociodemographic and clinical data, including ICD-10 diagnoses, were automatically drawn from electronic health records and analyzed using Kaplan-Meier failure function (1-survival), Cox regression models, bootstrapping methods, and Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve. RESULTS: Eighty BLIPS were included. At baseline, two-thirds (68%) of BLIPS met the diagnostic criteria for ICD-10 Acute and Transient Psychotic Disorder (ATPD), most featuring schizophrenic symptoms. The remaining individuals met ICD-10 diagnostic criteria for unspecified nonorganic psychosis (15%), mental and behavioral disorders due to use of cannabinoids (11%), and mania with psychotic symptoms (6%). The overall 5-year risk of psychosis was 0.54. Recurrent episodes of BLIPS were relatively rare (11%) but associated with a higher risk of psychosis (hazard ratio [HR] 3.98) than mono-episodic BLIPS at the univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis revealed that seriously disorganizing or dangerous features increased greatly (HR = 4.39) the risk of psychosis (0.89 at 5-year). Bootstrapping confirmed the robustness of this predictor (area under the ROC = 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: BLIPS are most likely to fulfill the ATPD criteria, mainly acute schizophrenic subtypes. About half of BLIPS cases develops a psychotic disorder during follow-up. Recurrent BLIPS are relatively rare but tend to develop into psychosis. BLIPS with seriously disorganizing or dangerous features have an extreme high risk of psychosis.

Improving Prognostic Accuracy in Subjects at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: Systematic Review of Predictive Models and Meta-analytical Sequential Testing Simulation.

Discriminating subjects at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis who will develop psychosis from those who will not is a prerequisite for preventive treatments. However, it is not yet possible to make any personalized prediction of psychosis onset relying only on the initial clinical baseline assessment. Here, we first present a systematic review of prognostic accuracy parameters of predictive modeling studies using clinical, biological, neurocognitive, environmental, and combinations of predictors. In a second step, we performed statistical simulations to test different probabilistic sequential 3-stage testing strategies aimed at improving prognostic accuracy on top of the clinical baseline assessment. The systematic review revealed that the best environmental predictive model yielded a modest positive predictive value (PPV) (63%). Conversely, the best predictive models in other domains (clinical, biological, neurocognitive, and combined models) yielded PPVs of above 82%. Using only data from validated models, 3-stage simulations showed that the highest PPV was achieved by sequentially using a combined (clinical + electroencephalography), then structural magnetic resonance imaging and then a blood markers model. Specifically, PPV was estimated to be 98% (number needed to treat, NNT = 2) for an individual with 3 positive sequential tests, 71%-82% (NNT = 3) with 2 positive tests, 12%-21% (NNT = 11-18) with 1 positive test, and 1% (NNT = 219) for an individual with no positive tests. This work suggests that sequentially testing CHR subjects with predictive models across multiple domains may substantially improve psychosis prediction following the initial CHR assessment. Multistage sequential testing may allow individual risk stratification of CHR individuals and optimize the prediction of psychosis.

Persistence or recurrence of non-psychotic comorbid mental disorders associated with 6-year poor functional outcomes in patients at ultra high risk for psychosis.

BACKGROUND: Patients at ultra-high risk for psychosis (UHR) are a highly heterogeneous group in terms of clinical and functional outcomes. Several non-psychotic mental disorders co-occur together with the UHR state. Little is known about the impact of non-psychotic comorbid mental disorders on clinical and functional outcomes of UHR patients. METHODS: The sample included 154 UHR help-seeking patients (identified with the CAARMS, comprehensive assessment of the at-risk mental state), evaluated at baseline on the Ham-D, Ham-A (Hamilton depression/anxiety rating scale), and PANSS (positive and negative syndrome scale). 74 patients completed the 6-year follow-up assessment (mean=6.19, SD=1.87). Comorbid disorders at follow-up were assessed with the SCID I and II. Global functioning was rated on the global assessment of functioning (GAF) scale. RESULTS: In the present sample, 6-year risk of psychosis transition was 28.4%. Among non-transitioned UHR patients, 28.3% reported attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS) and 45.3% remained functionally impaired at follow-up (GAF<60). 56.8% patients were affected by at least one comorbid disorder at follow-up. Among UHR patients who presented with some comorbid disorder at baseline, 61.5% had persistent or recurrent course. Incident comorbid disorders emerged in 45.4% of baseline UHR patients. The persistence or recurrence of non-psychotic comorbid mental disorders was associated with poorer global functional outcomes at follow-up. LIMITATIONS: A substantial proportion of the initial sample was not available for follow-up interviews and some groups in the analyses had small sample size. Predictors of longitudinal outcomes were not explored. CONCLUSIONS: Among UHR patients, persistence or recurrence of non-psychotic comorbid mental disorders, mostly affective disorders, is associated with 6-year poor functional outcomes.

Peripheral oxytocin and vasopressin: Biomarkers of psychiatric disorders? A comprehensive systematic review and preliminary meta-analysis.

A large array of studies have investigated peripheral oxytocin (OT) and vasopressin (ADH) as potential biomarkers of psychiatric disorders, with highly conflicting and heterogenous findings. We searched Web of KnowledgeSM and Scopus® for English original articles investigating OT and/or ADH levels in different biological fluids (plasma/serum, saliva, urine and cerebrospinal fluid) across several psychiatric disorders. Sixty-four studies were included. We conducted 19 preliminary meta-analyses addressing OT alterations in plasma/serum, saliva, urine and cerebrospinal fluid of 7 psychiatric disorders and ADH alterations in plasma/serum, saliva, urine and cerebrospinal fluid of 6 psychiatric disorders compared to controls. Hedge's g was used as effect size measure, together with heterogeneity analyses, test of publication biases and quality control. None of them (except serum OT in anorexia nervosa) revealed significant differences. There is no convincing evidence that peripheral ADH or OT might be reliable biomarkers in psychiatric disorders. However, the lack of significant results was associated with high methodological heterogeneity, low quality of the studies, small sample size, and scarce reliability of the methods used in previous studies, which need to be validated and standardized.

Diagnostic Stability of ICD/DSM First Episode Psychosis Diagnoses: Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Validity of current International Classification of Disease/Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (ICD/DSM) first episode psychosis diagnoses is essential in clinical practice, research, training and public health. METHOD: We provide a meta-analytical estimate of prospective diagnostic stability and instability in ICD-10 or DSM-IV first episode diagnoses of functional psychoses. Independent extraction by multiple observers. Random effect meta-analysis conducted with the "metaprop," "metaninf," "metafunnel," "metabias," and "metareg" packages of STATA13.1. Moderators were tested with meta-regression analyses. Heterogeneity was assessed with the I 2 index. Sensitivity analyses tested robustness of results. Publication biases were assessed with funnel plots and Egger's test. FINDINGS: 42 studies and 45 samples were included, for a total of 14 484 first episode patients and an average follow-up of 4.5 years. Prospective diagnostic stability ranked: schizophrenia 0.90 (95% CI 0.85-0.95), affective spectrum psychoses 0.84 (95% CI 0.79-0.89), schizoaffective disorder 0.72 (95% CI 0.61-0.73), substance-induced psychotic disorder 0.66 (95% CI 0.51-0.81), delusional disorder 0.59 (95% CI 0.47-0.71), acute and transient psychotic disorder/brief psychotic disorder 0.56 (95% CI 0.62-0.60), psychosis not otherwise specified 0.36 (95% CI 0.27-0.45, schizophreniform disorder 0.29 (95% CI 0.22-0.38). Diagnostic stability within schizophrenia spectrum psychoses was 0.93 (95% CI 0.89-0.97); changes to affective spectrum psychoses were 0.05 (95% CI 0.01-0.08). About 0.10 (95% CI 0.05-0.15) of affective spectrum psychoses changed to schizophrenia spectrum psychosis. Across the other psychotic diagnoses there was high diagnostic instability, mostly to schizophrenia. INTERPRETATION: There is meta-analytical evidence for high prospective diagnostic stability in schizophrenia spectrum and affective spectrum psychoses, with no significant ICD/DSM differences. These results may inform the development of new treatment guidelines for early psychosis and impact drug licensing from regulatory agencies.

Heterogeneity of Psychosis Risk Within Individuals at Clinical High Risk: A Meta-analytical Stratification.

IMPORTANCE: Individuals can be classified as being at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis if they meet at least one of the ultra-high-risk (UHR) inclusion criteria (brief limited intermittent psychotic symptoms [BLIPS] and/or attenuated psychotic symptoms [APS] and/or genetic risk and deterioration syndrome [GRD]) and/or basic symptoms [BS]. The meta-analytical risk of psychosis of these different subgroups is still unknown. OBJECTIVE: To compare the risk of psychosis in CHR individuals who met at least one of the major inclusion criteria and in individuals not at CHR for psychosis (CHR-). DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases (Web of Science, MEDLINE, Scopus) were searched until June 18, 2015, along with investigation of citations of previous publications and a manual search of the reference lists of retrieved articles. STUDY SELECTION: We included original follow-up studies of CHR individuals who reported the risk of psychosis classified according to the presence of any BLIPS, APS and GRD, APS alone, GRD alone, BS, and CHR-. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Independent extraction by multiple observers and random-effects meta-analysis of proportions. Moderators were tested with meta-regression analyses (Bonferroni corrected). Heterogeneity was assessed with the I2 index. Sensitivity analyses tested robustness of results. Publication biases were assessed with funnel plots and the Egger test. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The proportion of each subgroup with any psychotic disorder at 6, 12, 24, 36, and 48 or more months of follow-up. RESULTS: Thirty-three independent studies comprising up to 4227 individuals were included. The meta-analytical proportion of individuals meeting each UHR subgroup at intake was: 0.85 APS (95%CI, 0.79-0.90), 0.1 BLIPS (95%CI, 0.06-0.14), and 0.05 GRD (95%CI, 0.03-0.07). There were no significant differences in psychosis risk at any time point between the APS and GRD and the APS-alone subgroups. There was a higher risk of psychosis in the any BLIPS greater than APS greater than GRD-alone subgroups at 24, 36, and 48 or more months of follow-up. There was no evidence that the GRD subgroup has a higher risk of psychosis than the CHR- subgroup. There were too few BS or BS and UHR studies to allow robust conclusions. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: There is meta-analytical evidence that BLIPS represents separate risk subgroup compared with the APS. The GRD subgroup is infrequent and not associated with an increased risk of psychosis. Future studies are advised to stratify their findings across these different subgroups. The CHR guidelines should be updated to reflect these differences.

Prognosis of Brief Psychotic Episodes: A Meta-analysis.

IMPORTANCE: The prognostic significance of competing constructs and operationalizations for brief psychotic episodes (acute and transient psychotic disorder [ATPD], brief psychotic disorder [BPD], brief intermittent psychotic symptoms [BIPS], and brief limited intermittent psychotic symptoms [BLIPS]) is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To provide a meta-analytical prognosis of the risk of psychotic recurrence in patients with remitted first-episode ATPD, BPD, BIPS, and BLIPS and in a benchmark group of patients with remitted first-episode schizophrenia (FES). We hypothesized a differential risk: FES > ATPD > BPD > BIPS > BLIPS. DATA SOURCES: The Web of Knowledge and Scopus databases were searched up to May 18, 2015; the articles identified were reviewed as well as citations of previous publications and results of a manual search of the reference lists of retrieved articles. STUDY SELECTION: We included original articles that reported the risk of psychotic recurrence at follow-up for patients in remission from first-episode ATPD, BPD, BLIPS, BIPS, and FES. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Independent extraction by multiple observers. Random-effects meta-analysis was performed, and moderators were tested with meta-regression analyses, Bonferroni corrected. Heterogeneity was assessed with the I2 index. Sensitivity analyses tested the robustness of the results. Publication bias was assessed with funnel plots and the Egger test. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Proportion of patients with baseline ATPD, BPD, BLIPS, and BIPS who had any psychotic recurrence at 6, 12, 24, and 36 or more months of follow-up. RESULTS: Eighty-two independent studies comprising up to 11,133 patients were included. There was no prognostic difference in risk of psychotic recurrence between ATPD, BPD, BLIPS, and BIPS at any follow-up (P > .03). In the long-term analysis, risk of psychotic recurrence (reported as mean [95% CI]) was significantly higher in the FES group (0.78 [0.58-0.93] at 24 months and 0.84 [0.70-0.94] at ≥ 36 months; P < .02 and P < .001, respectively) compared with the other 4 groups (0.39 [0.32-0.47] at 24 months and 0.51 [0.41-0.61] at ≥ 36 months). There were no publication biases. Sex and exposure to antipsychotic medication modulated the meta-analytical estimates (.002 < P < .03). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: There are no prognostic differences in risk of psychotic recurrence between ATPD, BPD, BLIPS, and BIPS constructs of brief psychotic episodes. Conversely, there is consistent meta-analytical evidence for better long-term prognosis of brief psychotic episodes compared with remitted first-episode schizophrenia. These findings should influence the diagnostic practice and clinical services in the management of early psychosis.

The Dark Side of the Moon: Meta-analytical Impact of Recruitment Strategies on Risk Enrichment in the Clinical High Risk State for Psychosis.

BACKGROUND: The individual risk of developing psychosis after being tested for clinical high-risk (CHR) criteria (posttest risk of psychosis) depends on the underlying risk of the disease of the population from which the person is selected (pretest risk of psychosis), and thus on recruitment strategies. Yet, the impact of recruitment strategies on pretest risk of psychosis is unknown. METHODS: Meta-analysis of the pretest risk of psychosis in help-seeking patients selected to undergo CHR assessment: total transitions to psychosis over the pool of patients assessed for potential risk and deemed at risk (CHR+) or not at risk (CHR-). Recruitment strategies (number of outreach activities per study, main target of outreach campaign, and proportion of self-referrals) were the moderators examined in meta-regressions. RESULTS: 11 independent studies met the inclusion criteria, for a total of 2519 (CHR+: n = 1359; CHR-: n = 1160) help-seeking patients undergoing CHR assessment (mean follow-up: 38 months). The overall meta-analytical pretest risk for psychosis in help-seeking patients was 15%, with high heterogeneity (95% CI: 9%-24%, I (2) = 96, P < .001). Recruitment strategies were heterogeneous and opportunistic. Heterogeneity was largely explained by intensive (n = 11, ß = -.166, Q = 9.441, P = .002) outreach campaigns primarily targeting the general public (n = 11, ß = -1.15, Q = 21.35, P < .001) along with higher proportions of self-referrals (n = 10, ß = -.029, Q = 4.262, P = .039), which diluted pretest risk for psychosis in patients undergoing CHR assessment. CONCLUSIONS: There is meta-analytical evidence for overall risk enrichment (pretest risk for psychosis at 38 monhts = 15%) in help-seeking samples selected for CHR assessment as compared to the general population (pretest risk of psychosis at 38 monhts=0.1%). Intensive outreach campaigns predominantly targeting the general population and a higher proportion of self-referrals diluted the pretest risk for psychosis.

At risk or not at risk? A meta-analysis of the prognostic accuracy of psychometric interviews for psychosis prediction.

An accurate detection of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis is a prerequisite for effective preventive interventions. Several psychometric interviews are available, but their prognostic accuracy is unknown. We conducted a prognostic accuracy meta-analysis of psychometric interviews used to examine referrals to high risk services. The index test was an established CHR psychometric instrument used to identify subjects with and without CHR (CHR+ and CHR-). The reference index was psychosis onset over time in both CHR+ and CHR- subjects. Data were analyzed with MIDAS (STATA13). Area under the curve (AUC), summary receiver operating characteristic curves, quality assessment, likelihood ratios, Fagan's nomogram and probability modified plots were computed. Eleven independent studies were included, with a total of 2,519 help-seeking, predominately adult subjects (CHR+: N=1,359; CHR-: N=1,160) referred to high risk services. The mean follow-up duration was 38 months. The AUC was excellent (0.90; 95% CI: 0.87-0.93), and comparable to other tests in preventive medicine, suggesting clinical utility in subjects referred to high risk services. Meta-regression analyses revealed an effect for exposure to antipsychotics and no effects for type of instrument, age, gender, follow-up time, sample size, quality assessment, proportion of CHR+ subjects in the total sample. Fagan's nomogram indicated a low positive predictive value (5.74%) in the general non-help-seeking population. Albeit the clear need to further improve prediction of psychosis, these findings support the use of psychometric prognostic interviews for CHR as clinical tools for an indicated prevention in subjects seeking help at high risk services worldwide.