The burden and contemporary epidemiology of sepsis in children.

Sepsis is a dysregulated host response to infection that leads to life-threatening organ dysfunction. Half of the 50 million people affected by sepsis globally every year are neonates and children younger than 19 years. This burden on the paediatric population translates into a disproportionate impact on global child health in terms of years of life lost, morbidity, and lost opportunities for children to reach their developmental potential. This Series on paediatric sepsis presents the current state of diagnosis and treatment of sepsis in children, and maps the challenges in alleviating the burden on children, their families, and society. Drawing on diverse experience and multidisciplinary expertise, we offer a roadmap to improving outcomes for children with sepsis. This first paper of the Series is a narrative review of the burden of paediatric sepsis from low-income to high-income settings. Advances towards improved operationalisation of paediatric sepsis across all age groups have facilitated more standardised assessment of the Global Burden of Disease estimates of the impact of sepsis on child health, and these estimates are expected to gain further precision with the roll out of the new Phoenix criteria for sepsis. Sepsis remains one of the leading causes of childhood morbidity and mortality, with immense direct and indirect societal costs. Although substantial regional differences persist in relation to incidence, microbiological epidemiology, and outcomes, these cannot be explained by differences in income level alone. Recent insights into post-discharge sequelae after paediatric sepsis, ranging from late mortality and persistent neurodevelopmental impairment to reduced health-related quality of life, show how common post-sepsis syndrome is in children. Targeting sepsis as a key contributor to poor health outcomes in children is therefore an essential component of efforts to meet the Sustainable Development Goals.

Susceptibility to childhood sepsis, contemporary management, and future directions.

Sepsis disproportionally affects children across all health-care settings and is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in neonatal and paediatric age groups. As shown in the first paper in this Series, the age-specific incidence of sepsis is highest during the first years of life, before approaching adult incidence rates during adolescence. In the second paper in this Series, we focus on the unique susceptibility of paediatric patients to sepsis and how the underlying dysregulated host response relates to developmental aspects of children's immune system, genetic, perinatal, and environmental factors, and comorbidities and socioeconomic determinants of health, which often differ between children and adults. State-of-the-art clinical management of paediatric sepsis is organised around three treatment pillars-diagnosis, early resuscitation, and titration of advanced care-and we examine available treatment guidelines and the limitations of their supporting evidence. Serious evidence gaps remain in key areas of paediatric sepsis care, especially surrounding recognition, common interventions, and survivor support, and to this end we offer a research roadmap for the next decade that could accelerate targeted diagnostics and personalised use of immunomodulation. However, improving outcomes for children with sepsis relies fundamentally on systematic quality improvement in both recognition and treatment, which is the theme of the third paper in this Series. Digital health, as shown in the fourth and final paper of this Series, holds promising potential in breaking down the barriers that hinder progress in paediatric sepsis care and, ultimately, global child health.

Enhancing sepsis biomarker development: key considerations from public and private perspectives.

Implementation of biomarkers in sepsis and septic shock in emergency situations, remains highly challenging. This viewpoint arose from a public-private 3-day workshop aiming to facilitate the transition of sepsis biomarkers into clinical practice. The authors consist of international academic researchers and clinician-scientists and industry experts who gathered (i) to identify current obstacles impeding biomarker research in sepsis, (ii) to outline the important milestones of the critical path of biomarker development and (iii) to discuss novel avenues in biomarker discovery and implementation. To define more appropriately the potential place of biomarkers in sepsis, a better understanding of sepsis pathophysiology is mandatory, in particular the sepsis patient's trajectory from the early inflammatory onset to the late persisting immunosuppression phase. This time-varying host response urges to develop time-resolved test to characterize persistence of immunological dysfunctions. Furthermore, age-related difference has to be considered between adult and paediatric septic patients. In this context, numerous barriers to biomarker adoption in practice, such as lack of consensus about diagnostic performances, the absence of strict recommendations for sepsis biomarker development, cost and resources implications, methodological validation challenges or limited awareness and education have been identified. Biomarker-guided interventions for sepsis to identify patients that would benefit more from therapy, such as sTREM-1-guided Nangibotide treatment or Adrenomedullin-guided Enibarcimab treatment, appear promising but require further evaluation. Artificial intelligence also has great potential in the sepsis biomarker discovery field through capability to analyse high volume complex data and identify complex multiparametric patient endotypes or trajectories. To conclude, biomarker development in sepsis requires (i) a comprehensive and multidisciplinary approach employing the most advanced analytical tools, (ii) the creation of a platform that collaboratively merges scientific and commercial needs and (iii) the support of an expedited regulatory approval process.

Rapid Classification and Differentiation of Sepsis-Related Pathogens Using FT-IR Spectroscopy.

Sepsis is a life-threatening condition arising from a dysregulated host immune response to infection, leading to a substantial global health burden. The accurate identification of bacterial pathogens in sepsis is essential for guiding effective antimicrobial therapy and optimising patient outcomes. Traditional culture-based bacterial typing methods present inherent limitations, necessitating the exploration of alternative diagnostic approaches. This study reports the successful application of Fourier-transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy in combination with chemometrics as a potent tool for the classification and discrimination of microbial species and strains, primarily sourced from individuals with invasive infections. These samples were obtained from various children with suspected sepsis infections with bacteria and fungi originating at different sites. We conducted a comprehensive analysis utilising 212 isolates from 14 distinct genera, comprising 202 bacterial and 10 fungal isolates. With the spectral analysis taking several weeks, we present the incorporation of quality control samples to mitigate potential variations that may arise between different sample plates, especially when dealing with a large sample size. The results demonstrated a remarkable consistency in clustering patterns among 14 genera when subjected to principal component analysis (PCA). Particularly, Candida, a fungal genus, was distinctly recovered away from bacterial samples. Principal component discriminant function analysis (PC-DFA) allowed for distinct discrimination between different bacterial groups, particularly Gram-negative and Gram-positive bacteria. Clear differentiation was also observed between coagulase-negative staphylococci (CNS) and Staphylococcus aureus isolates, while methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) was also separated from methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) isolates. Furthermore, highly accurate discrimination was achieved between Enterococcus and vancomycin-resistant enterococci isolates with 98.4% accuracy using partial least squares-discriminant analysis. The study also demonstrates the specificity of FT-IR, as it effectively discriminates between individual isolates of Streptococcus and Candida at their respective species levels. The findings of this study establish a strong groundwork for the broader implementation of FT-IR and chemometrics in clinical and microbiological applications. The potential of these techniques for enhanced microbial classification holds significant promise in the diagnosis and management of invasive bacterial infections, thereby contributing to improved patient outcomes.

The cost-effectiveness of procalcitonin for guiding antibiotic prescribing in individuals hospitalized with COVID-19: part of the PEACH study.

BACKGROUND: Many hospitals introduced procalcitonin (PCT) testing to help diagnose bacterial coinfection in individuals with COVID-19, and guide antibiotic decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK. OBJECTIVES: Evaluating cost-effectiveness of using PCT to guide antibiotic decisions in individuals hospitalized with COVID-19, as part of a wider research programme. METHODS: Retrospective individual-level data on patients hospitalized with COVID-19 were collected from 11 NHS acute hospital Trusts and Health Boards from England and Wales, which varied in their use of baseline PCT testing during the first COVID-19 pandemic wave. A matched analysis (part of a wider analysis reported elsewhere) created groups of patients whose PCT was/was not tested at baseline. A model was created with combined decision tree/Markov phases, parameterized with quality-of-life/unit cost estimates from the literature, and used to estimate costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Cost-effectiveness was judged at a £20 000/QALY threshold. Uncertainty was characterized using bootstrapping. RESULTS: People who had baseline PCT testing had shorter general ward/ICU stays and spent less time on antibiotics, though with overlap between the groups' 95% CIs. Those with baseline PCT testing accrued more QALYs (8.76 versus 8.62) and lower costs (£9830 versus £10 700). The point estimate was baseline PCT testing being dominant over no baseline testing, though with uncertainty: the probability of cost-effectiveness was 0.579 with a 1 year horizon and 0.872 with a lifetime horizon. CONCLUSIONS: Using PCT to guide antibiotic therapy in individuals hospitalized with COVID-19 is more likely to be cost-effective than not, albeit with uncertainty.

Assessing acutely ill children in general practice using the National PEWS and LqSOFA clinical scores: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical tools are needed in general practice to help identify seriously ill children. The Liverpool quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (LqSOFA) was validated in an Emergency Department and performed well. The National Paediatric Early Warning score (PEWS) has been introduced in hospitals throughout England with hopes for implementation in general practice. AIM: To validate the LqSOFA and National PEWS in general practice. DESIGN/SETTING: Secondary analysis of 6,703 children <5 years presenting to 225 general practices in England and Wales with acute illnesses, linked to hospital data. METHOD: Variables from the LqSOFA and National PEWS were mapped onto study data to calculate score totals. A primary outcome of admission within two days of GP consultation was used to calculate sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive values (NPV), positive predictive values (PPV) and area-under-the-curve (AUC). RESULTS: 104/6,703 children were hospitalised within two days (pre-test probability 1.6%). The sensitivity of the LqSOFA was 30.6% (95% confidence interval 21.8% - 41.0%), with a specificity of 84.7% (83.7% - 85.6%), PPV of 3.0% (2.1% - 4.4%), NPV of 98.7% (98.4% - 99.0%), and AUC of 0.58 (0.53 - 0.63). The sensitivity of the National PEWS was 81.0% (71.0% - 88.1%), with a specificity of 32.5% (31.2% - 33.8%); PPV of 1.9% (1.5% - 2.5%); NPV of 99.1% (98.4% - 99.4%) and AUC of 0.66 (0.59 - 0.72). CONCLUSION: Although the NPVs appear useful, due to low pre-test probabilities rather than discriminative ability, neither tool accurately identified hospitalisations. Unconsidered use by GPs could result in unsustainable referrals.

Evidence of quality of life for hospitalised patients with COVID-19: a scoping review.

Background: Information on the quality of life of people hospitalised with COVID-19 is important, both in assessing the burden of disease and the cost-effectiveness of treatments. However, there were potential barriers to collecting such evidence. Objective: To review the existing evidence on quality of life for people hospitalised with COVID-19, with a focus on the amount of evidence available and methods used. Design: A scoping review with systematic searches. Results: A total of 35 papers were selected for data extraction. The most common study type was economic evaluation (N = 13), followed by cross-sectional (N = 10). All economic evaluations used published utility values for other conditions to represent COVID-19 inpatients' quality of life. The most popular quality-of-life survey measure was the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (N = 8). There were 12 studies that used a mental health-related survey and 12 that used a sleep-related survey. Five studies used EQ-5D, but only one collected responses from people in the acute phase of COVID-19. Studies reported a negative impact on quality of life for people hospitalised with COVID-19, although many studies did not include a formal comparison group. Limitations: Although it used systematic searches, this was not a full systematic review. Conclusion: Quality-of-life data were collected from people hospitalised with COVID-19 from relatively early in the pandemic. However, there was a lack of consensus as to what survey measures to use, and few studies used generic health measures. Economic evaluations for COVID-19 treatments did not use utilities collected from people with COVID-19. In future health crises, researchers should be vigilant for opportunities to collect quality-of-life data from hospitalised patients but should try to co-ordinate as well as ensuring generic health measures are used more. Funding: This article presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme as award number NIHR132254.

Quality of life can be measured using short, simple surveys. It is important to assess quality of life in this way, as it can show how health conditions affect people. Quality-of-life surveys can also be used to measure how treatments benefit people and to judge whether it is cost-effective to fund them. COVID-19 is a new disease, with new treatments developed to treat it. COVID-19 also created possible barriers to collecting quality-of-life survey data, especially from people in hospital at the start of the pandemic. This paper reviews studies which report data on quality of life for people hospitalised with COVID-19, especially how much evidence is available and how the studies were carried out. There were 35 studies included in the review. Of these, 13 assessed how cost-effective treatments for COVID-19 were. None of them collected survey responses directly from patients. Instead, they used data previously collected from people with other conditions such as influenza to represent people with COVID-19's quality of life. The studies which did collect data from patients used a wide variety of different surveys, which made comparing their results difficult. Mental health-related surveys were used by 12 studies, and a further 12 used sleep-related surveys. Relatively few studies used general surveys which could assess the overall effect of COVID-19 on people's quality of life. In future health crises, we recommend using more general quality-of-life measures. We also recommend that researchers co-ordinate to reduce the number of different surveys they use, as this will make comparing results easier.

Bacterial discrimination by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, MALDI-mass spectrometry and whole-genome sequencing.

Aim: Proof-of-concept study, highlighting the clinical diagnostic ability of FT-IR compared with MALDI-TOF MS, combined with WGS. Materials & methods: 104 pathogenic isolates of Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Streptococcus pyogenes and Staphylococcus aureus were analyzed. Results: Overall prediction accuracy was 99.6% in FT-IR and 95.8% in MALDI-TOF-MS. Analysis of N. meningitidis serogroups was superior in FT-IR compared with MALDI-TOF-MS. Phylogenetic relationship of S. pyogenes was similar by FT-IR and WGS, but not S. aureus or S. pneumoniae. Clinical severity was associated with the zinc ABC transporter and DNA repair genes in S. pneumoniae and cell wall proteins (biofilm formation, antibiotic and complement permeability) in S. aureus via WGS. Conclusion: FT-IR warrants further clinical evaluation as a promising diagnostic tool.

We tested a technique (FT-IR) to identify four different, common bacteria from 104 children with serious infections and compared it to lab methods for diagnosis. FT-IR was more accurate. We tested if it could identify subtypes of bacteria, which is important in outbreaks. It was able to subtype two species, but not the two other species. However, it is a much faster and cheaper technique than the gold standard. It may be useful in certain outbreaks. We also investigated the trends between genes and the length of hospital stay. This can support further laboratory research. As a fast, low-cost test, FT-IR warrants further testing before it is applied to clinical labs.

Plasma Protein Biomarkers Distinguish Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children From Other Pediatric Infectious and Inflammatory Diseases.

BACKGROUND: Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) is a rare but serious hyperinflammatory complication following infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. The mechanisms underpinning the pathophysiology of MIS-C are poorly understood. Moreover, clinically distinguishing MIS-C from other childhood infectious and inflammatory conditions, such as Kawasaki disease or severe bacterial and viral infections, is challenging due to overlapping clinical and laboratory features. We aimed to determine a set of plasma protein biomarkers that could discriminate MIS-C from those other diseases. METHODS: Seven candidate protein biomarkers for MIS-C were selected based on literature and from whole blood RNA sequencing data from patients with MIS-C and other diseases. Plasma concentrations of ARG1, CCL20, CD163, CORIN, CXCL9, PCSK9 and ADAMTS2 were quantified in MIS-C (n = 22), Kawasaki disease (n = 23), definite bacterial (n = 28) and viral (n = 27) disease and healthy controls (n = 8). Logistic regression models were used to determine the discriminatory ability of individual proteins and protein combinations to identify MIS-C and association with severity of illness. RESULTS: Plasma levels of CD163, CXCL9 and PCSK9 were significantly elevated in MIS-C with a combined area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 85.7% (95% confidence interval: 76.6%-94.8%) for discriminating MIS-C from other childhood diseases. Lower ARG1 and CORIN plasma levels were significantly associated with severe MIS-C cases requiring inotropes, pediatric intensive care unit admission or with shock. CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrate the feasibility of a host protein biomarker signature for MIS-C and may provide new insight into its pathophysiology.

International Consensus Criteria for Pediatric Sepsis and Septic Shock.

Importance: Sepsis is a leading cause of death among children worldwide. Current pediatric-specific criteria for sepsis were published in 2005 based on expert opinion. In 2016, the Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis and Septic Shock (Sepsis-3) defined sepsis as life-threatening organ dysfunction caused by a dysregulated host response to infection, but it excluded children. Objective: To update and evaluate criteria for sepsis and septic shock in children. Evidence Review: The Society of Critical Care Medicine (SCCM) convened a task force of 35 pediatric experts in critical care, emergency medicine, infectious diseases, general pediatrics, nursing, public health, and neonatology from 6 continents. Using evidence from an international survey, systematic review and meta-analysis, and a new organ dysfunction score developed based on more than 3 million electronic health record encounters from 10 sites on 4 continents, a modified Delphi consensus process was employed to develop criteria. Findings: Based on survey data, most pediatric clinicians used sepsis to refer to infection with life-threatening organ dysfunction, which differed from prior pediatric sepsis criteria that used systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria, which have poor predictive properties, and included the redundant term, severe sepsis. The SCCM task force recommends that sepsis in children be identified by a Phoenix Sepsis Score of at least 2 points in children with suspected infection, which indicates potentially life-threatening dysfunction of the respiratory, cardiovascular, coagulation, and/or neurological systems. Children with a Phoenix Sepsis Score of at least 2 points had in-hospital mortality of 7.1% in higher-resource settings and 28.5% in lower-resource settings, more than 8 times that of children with suspected infection not meeting these criteria. Mortality was higher in children who had organ dysfunction in at least 1 of 4-respiratory, cardiovascular, coagulation, and/or neurological-organ systems that was not the primary site of infection. Septic shock was defined as children with sepsis who had cardiovascular dysfunction, indicated by at least 1 cardiovascular point in the Phoenix Sepsis Score, which included severe hypotension for age, blood lactate exceeding 5 mmol/L, or need for vasoactive medication. Children with septic shock had an in-hospital mortality rate of 10.8% and 33.5% in higher- and lower-resource settings, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: The Phoenix sepsis criteria for sepsis and septic shock in children were derived and validated by the international SCCM Pediatric Sepsis Definition Task Force using a large international database and survey, systematic review and meta-analysis, and modified Delphi consensus approach. A Phoenix Sepsis Score of at least 2 identified potentially life-threatening organ dysfunction in children younger than 18 years with infection, and its use has the potential to improve clinical care, epidemiological assessment, and research in pediatric sepsis and septic shock around the world.

Development and Validation of the Phoenix Criteria for Pediatric Sepsis and Septic Shock.

Importance: The Society of Critical Care Medicine Pediatric Sepsis Definition Task Force sought to develop and validate new clinical criteria for pediatric sepsis and septic shock using measures of organ dysfunction through a data-driven approach. Objective: To derive and validate novel criteria for pediatric sepsis and septic shock across differently resourced settings. Design, Setting, and Participants: Multicenter, international, retrospective cohort study in 10 health systems in the US, Colombia, Bangladesh, China, and Kenya, 3 of which were used as external validation sites. Data were collected from emergency and inpatient encounters for children (aged <18 years) from 2010 to 2019: 3 049 699 in the development (including derivation and internal validation) set and 581 317 in the external validation set. Exposure: Stacked regression models to predict mortality in children with suspected infection were derived and validated using the best-performing organ dysfunction subscores from 8 existing scores. The final model was then translated into an integer-based score used to establish binary criteria for sepsis and septic shock. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome for all analyses was in-hospital mortality. Model- and integer-based score performance measures included the area under the precision recall curve (AUPRC; primary) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC; secondary). For binary criteria, primary performance measures were positive predictive value and sensitivity. Results: Among the 172 984 children with suspected infection in the first 24 hours (development set; 1.2% mortality), a 4-organ-system model performed best. The integer version of that model, the Phoenix Sepsis Score, had AUPRCs of 0.23 to 0.38 (95% CI range, 0.20-0.39) and AUROCs of 0.71 to 0.92 (95% CI range, 0.70-0.92) to predict mortality in the validation sets. Using a Phoenix Sepsis Score of 2 points or higher in children with suspected infection as criteria for sepsis and sepsis plus 1 or more cardiovascular point as criteria for septic shock resulted in a higher positive predictive value and higher or similar sensitivity compared with the 2005 International Pediatric Sepsis Consensus Conference (IPSCC) criteria across differently resourced settings. Conclusions and Relevance: The novel Phoenix sepsis criteria, which were derived and validated using data from higher- and lower-resource settings, had improved performance for the diagnosis of pediatric sepsis and septic shock compared with the existing IPSCC criteria.

Molecular antimicrobial susceptibility testing in sepsis.

Rapidly detecting and identifying pathogens is crucial for appropriate antimicrobial therapy in patients with sepsis. Conventional diagnostic methods have been a great asset to medicine, though they are time consuming and labor intensive. This work will enable healthcare professionals to understand the bacterial community better and enhance their diagnostic capacity by using novel molecular methods that make obtaining quicker, more precise results possible. The authors discuss and critically assess the merits and drawbacks of molecular testing and the added value of these tests, including the shift turnaround time, the implication for clinicians' decisions, gaps in knowledge, future research directions and novel insights or innovations. The field of antimicrobial molecular testing has seen several novel insights and innovations to improve the diagnosis and management of infectious diseases.

Sepsis is a life-threatening reaction to an infection. This infection is normally caused by a bacteria. Identifying the bacteria that has caused the infection is very important to choosing the best treatment. This is usually done using molecular testing. This article discusses the advantages and disadvantages of molecular testing, which tests are available and the value of these tests in clinical practice, the implication of molecular tests for clinicians' decisions and the gaps in our knowledge. It also discusses future innovations in molecular testing.

Which low urgent triaged febrile children are suitable for a fast track? An observational European study.

BACKGROUND: The number of paediatric patients visiting the ED with non-urgent problems is increasing, leading to poor patient flow and ED crowding. Fast track aims to improve the efficiency of evaluation and discharge of low acuity patients. We aimed to identify which febrile children are suitable for a fast track based on presenting symptoms and management. METHODS: This study is part of the Management and Outcome of Fever in children in Europe study, which is an observational study including routine data of febrile children <18 years attending 12 European EDs. We included febrile, low urgent children (those assigned a triage acuity of either 'standard' or 'non-urgent' using the Manchester Triage System) and defined children as suitable for fast track when they have minimal resource use and are discharged home. Presenting symptoms consisted of neurological (n=237), respiratory (n=8476), gastrointestinal (n=1953) and others (n=3473, reference group). Multivariable logistic regression analyses regarding presenting symptoms and management (laboratory blood testing, imaging and admission) were performed with adjustment for covariates: patient characteristics, referral status, previous medical care, previous antibiotic use, visiting hours and ED setting. RESULTS: We included 14 139 children with a median age of 2.7 years (IQR 1.3-5.2). The majority had respiratory symptoms (60%), viral infections (50%) and consisted of self-referrals (69%). The neurological group received imaging more often (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.8, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.9) and were admitted more frequently (aOR 1.9, 95% CI 1.4 to 2.7). The respiratory group had fewer laboratory blood tests performed (aOR 0.6, 95% CI 0.5 to 0.7), were less frequently admitted (aOR 0.6, 95% CI 0.5 to 0.7), but received imaging more often (aOR 1.8, 95% CI 1.6 to 2.0). Lastly, the gastrointestinal group had more laboratory blood tests performed (aOR 1.2. 95% CI 1.1 to 1.4) and were admitted more frequently (aOR 1.4, 95% CI 1.2 to 1.6). CONCLUSION: We determined that febrile children triaged as low urgent with respiratory symptoms were most suitable for a fast track. This study provides evidence for which children could be triaged to a fast track, potentially improving overall patient flow at the ED.

Identifying critically ill children in Malawi: A modified qSOFA score for low-resource settings.

In low-resource settings, a reliable bedside score for timely identification of children at risk of dying, could help focus resources and improve survival. The rapid bedside Liverpool quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (LqSOFA) uses clinical parameters only and performed well in United Kingdom cohorts. A similarly quick clinical assessment-only score has however not yet been developed for paediatric populations in sub-Saharan Africa. In a development cohort of critically ill children in Malawi, we calculated the LqSOFA scores using age-adjusted heart rate and respiratory rate, capillary refill time and Blantyre Coma Scale, and evaluated its prognostic performance for mortality. An improved score, the Blantyre qSOFA (BqSOFA), was developed (omitting heart rate, adjusting respiratory rate cut-off values and adding pallor), subsequently validated in a second cohort of Malawian children, and compared with an existing score (FEAST-PET). Prognostic performance for mortality was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Mortality was 15.4% in the development (N = 493) and 22.0% in the validation cohort (N = 377). In the development cohort, discriminative ability (AUC) of the LqSOFA to predict mortality was 0.68 (95%-CI: 0.60-0.76). The BqSOFA and FEAST-PET yielded AUCs of 0.84 (95%-CI:0.79-0.89) and 0.83 (95%-CI:0.77-0.89) in the development cohort, and 0.74 (95%-CI:0.68-0.79) and 0.76 (95%-CI:0.70-0.82) in the validation cohort, respectively. We developed a simple prognostic score for Malawian children based on four clinical parameters which performed as well as a more complex score. The BqSOFA might be used to promptly identify critically ill children at risk of dying and prioritize hospital care in low-resource settings.

Raising AWaRe-ness of Antimicrobial Stewardship Challenges in Pediatric Emergency Care: Results from the PERFORM Study Assessing Consistency and Appropriateness of Antibiotic Prescribing Across Europe.

BACKGROUND: Optimization of antimicrobial stewardship is key to tackling antimicrobial resistance, which is exacerbated by overprescription of antibiotics in pediatric emergency departments (EDs). We described patterns of empiric antibiotic use in European EDs and characterized appropriateness and consistency of prescribing. METHODS: Between August 2016 and December 2019, febrile children attending EDs in 9 European countries with suspected infection were recruited into the PERFORM (Personalised Risk Assessment in Febrile Illness to Optimise Real-Life Management) study. Empiric systemic antibiotic use was determined in view of assigned final "bacterial" or "viral" phenotype. Antibiotics were classified according to the World Health Organization (WHO) AWaRe classification. RESULTS: Of 2130 febrile episodes (excluding children with nonbacterial/nonviral phenotypes), 1549 (72.7%) were assigned a bacterial and 581 (27.3%) a viral phenotype. A total of 1318 of 1549 episodes (85.1%) with a bacterial and 269 of 581 (46.3%) with a viral phenotype received empiric systemic antibiotics (in the first 2 days of admission). Of those, the majority (87.8% in the bacterial and 87.0% in the viral group) received parenteral antibiotics. The top 3 antibiotics prescribed were third-generation cephalosporins, penicillins, and penicillin/ß-lactamase inhibitor combinations. Of those treated with empiric systemic antibiotics in the viral group, 216 of 269 (80.3%) received ≥1 antibiotic in the "Watch" category. CONCLUSIONS: Differentiating bacterial from viral etiology in febrile illness on initial ED presentation remains challenging, resulting in a substantial overprescription of antibiotics. A significant proportion of patients with a viral phenotype received systemic antibiotics, predominantly classified as WHO Watch. Rapid and accurate point-of-care tests in the ED differentiating between bacterial and viral etiology could significantly improve antimicrobial stewardship.

Developing a model for decision-making around antibiotic prescribing for patients with COVID-19 pneumonia in acute NHS hospitals during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: qualitative results from the Procalcitonin Evaluation of Antibiotic use in COVID-19 Hospitalised patients (PEACH Study).

OBJECTIVE: To explore and model factors affecting antibiotic prescribing decision-making early in the pandemic. DESIGN: Semistructured qualitative interview study. SETTING: National Health Service (NHS) trusts/health boards in England and Wales. PARTICIPANTS: Clinicians from NHS trusts/health boards in England and Wales. METHOD: Individual semistructured interviews were conducted with clinicians in six NHS trusts/health boards in England and Wales as part of the Procalcitonin Evaluation of Antibiotic use in COVID-19 Hospitalised patients study, a wider study that included statistical analysis of procalcitonin (PCT) use in hospitals during the first wave of the pandemic. Thematic analysis was used to identify key factors influencing antibiotic prescribing decisions for patients with COVID-19 pneumonia during the first wave of the pandemic (March to May 2020), including how much influence PCT test results had on these decisions. RESULTS: During the first wave of the pandemic, recommendations to prescribe antibiotics for patients with COVID-19 pneumonia were based on concerns about secondary bacterial infections. However, as clinicians gained more experience with COVID-19, they reported increasing confidence in their ability to distinguish between symptoms and signs caused by SARS-CoV-2 viral infection alone, and secondary bacterial infections. Antibiotic prescribing decisions were influenced by factors such as clinician experience, confidence, senior support, situational factors and organisational influences. A decision-making model was developed. CONCLUSION: This study provides insight into the decision-making process around antibiotic prescribing for patients with COVID-19 pneumonia during the first wave of the pandemic. The importance of clinician experience and of senior review of decisions as factors in optimising antibiotic stewardship is highlighted. In addition, situational and organisational factors were identified that could be optimised. The model presented in the study can be used as a tool to aid understanding of the complexity of the decision-making process around antibiotic prescribing and planning antimicrobial stewardship support in the context of a pandemic. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN66682918.

A multi-platform approach to identify a blood-based host protein signature for distinguishing between bacterial and viral infections in febrile children (PERFORM): a multi-cohort machine learning study.

BACKGROUND: Differentiating between self-resolving viral infections and bacterial infections in children who are febrile is a common challenge, causing difficulties in identifying which individuals require antibiotics. Studying the host response to infection can provide useful insights and can lead to the identification of biomarkers of infection with diagnostic potential. This study aimed to identify host protein biomarkers for future development into an accurate, rapid point-of-care test that can distinguish between bacterial and viral infections, by recruiting children presenting to health-care settings with fever or a history of fever in the previous 72 h. METHODS: In this multi-cohort machine learning study, patient data were taken from EUCLIDS, the Swiss Pediatric Sepsis study, the GENDRES study, and the PERFORM study, which were all based in Europe. We generated three high-dimensional proteomic datasets (SomaScan and two via liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry, referred to as MS-A and MS-B) using targeted and untargeted platforms (SomaScan and liquid chromatography mass spectrometry). Protein biomarkers were then shortlisted using differential abundance analysis, feature selection using forward selection-partial least squares (FS-PLS; 100 iterations), along with a literature search. Identified proteins were tested with Luminex and ELISA and iterative FS-PLS was done again (25 iterations) on the Luminex results alone, and the Luminex and ELISA results together. A sparse protein signature for distinguishing between bacterial and viral infections was identified from the selected proteins. The performance of this signature was finally tested using Luminex assays and by calculating disease risk scores. FINDINGS: 376 children provided serum or plasma samples for use in the discovery of protein biomarkers. 79 serum samples were collected for the generation of the SomaScan dataset, 147 plasma samples for the MS-A dataset, and 150 plasma samples for the MS-B dataset. Differential abundance analysis, and the first round of feature selection using FS-PLS identified 35 protein biomarker candidates, of which 13 had commercial ELISA or Luminex tests available. 16 proteins with ELISA or Luminex tests available were identified by literature review. Further evaluation via Luminex and ELISA and the second round of feature selection using FS-PLS revealed a six-protein signature: three of the included proteins are elevated in bacterial infections (SELE, NGAL, and IFN-γ), and three are elevated in viral infections (IL18, NCAM1, and LG3BP). Performance testing of the signature using Luminex assays revealed area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values between 89·4% and 93·6%. INTERPRETATION: This study has led to the identification of a protein signature that could be ultimately developed into a blood-based point-of-care diagnostic test for rapidly diagnosing bacterial and viral infections in febrile children. Such a test has the potential to greatly improve care of children who are febrile, ensuring that the correct individuals receive antibiotics. FUNDING: European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (EUCLIDS), Imperial Biomedical Research Centre of the National Institute for Health Research, the Wellcome Trust and Medical Research Foundation, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Consorcio Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Respiratorias, Grupos de Refeencia Competitiva, Swiss State Secretariat for Education, Research and Innovation.

Relationship between molecular pathogen detection and clinical disease in febrile children across Europe: a multicentre, prospective observational study.

Background: The PERFORM study aimed to understand causes of febrile childhood illness by comparing molecular pathogen detection with current clinical practice. Methods: Febrile children and controls were recruited on presentation to hospital in 9 European countries 2016-2020. Each child was assigned a standardized diagnostic category based on retrospective review of local clinical and microbiological data. Subsequently, centralised molecular tests (CMTs) for 19 respiratory and 27 blood pathogens were performed. Findings: Of 4611 febrile children, 643 (14%) were classified as definite bacterial infection (DB), 491 (11%) as definite viral infection (DV), and 3477 (75%) had uncertain aetiology. 1061 controls without infection were recruited. CMTs detected blood bacteria more frequently in DB than DV cases for N. meningitidis (OR: 3.37, 95% CI: 1.92-5.99), S. pneumoniae (OR: 3.89, 95% CI: 2.07-7.59), Group A streptococcus (OR 2.73, 95% CI 1.13-6.09) and E. coli (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.02-6.71). Respiratory viruses were more common in febrile children than controls, but only influenza A (OR 0.24, 95% CI 0.11-0.46), influenza B (OR 0.12, 95% CI 0.02-0.37) and RSV (OR 0.16, 95% CI: 0.06-0.36) were less common in DB than DV cases. Of 16 blood viruses, enterovirus (OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.23-0.72) and EBV (OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.56-0.90) were detected less often in DB than DV cases. Combined local diagnostics and CMTs respectively detected blood viruses and respiratory viruses in 360 (56%) and 161 (25%) of DB cases, and virus detection ruled-out bacterial infection poorly, with predictive values of 0.64 and 0.68 respectively. Interpretation: Most febrile children cannot be conclusively defined as having bacterial or viral infection when molecular tests supplement conventional approaches. Viruses are detected in most patients with bacterial infections, and the clinical value of individual pathogen detection in determining treatment is low. New approaches are needed to help determine which febrile children require antibiotics. Funding: EU Horizon 2020 grant 668303.

Diagnosis of childhood febrile illness using a multi-class blood RNA molecular signature.

BACKGROUND: Appropriate treatment and management of children presenting with fever depend on accurate and timely diagnosis, but current diagnostic tests lack sensitivity and specificity and are frequently too slow to inform initial treatment. As an alternative to pathogen detection, host gene expression signatures in blood have shown promise in discriminating several infectious and inflammatory diseases in a dichotomous manner. However, differential diagnosis requires simultaneous consideration of multiple diseases. Here, we show that diverse infectious and inflammatory diseases can be discriminated by the expression levels of a single panel of genes in blood. METHODS: A multi-class supervised machine-learning approach, incorporating clinical consequence of misdiagnosis as a "cost" weighting, was applied to a whole-blood transcriptomic microarray dataset, incorporating 12 publicly available datasets, including 1,212 children with 18 infectious or inflammatory diseases. The transcriptional panel identified was further validated in a new RNA sequencing dataset comprising 411 febrile children. FINDINGS: We identified 161 transcripts that classified patients into 18 disease categories, reflecting individual causative pathogen and specific disease, as well as reliable prediction of broad classes comprising bacterial infection, viral infection, malaria, tuberculosis, or inflammatory disease. The transcriptional panel was validated in an independent cohort and benchmarked against existing dichotomous RNA signatures. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that classification of febrile illness can be achieved with a single blood sample and opens the way for a new approach for clinical diagnosis. FUNDING: European Union's Seventh Framework no. 279185; Horizon2020 no. 668303 PERFORM; Wellcome Trust (206508/Z/17/Z); Medical Research Foundation (MRF-160-0008-ELP-KAFO-C0801); NIHR Imperial BRC.