Modeling the potential impact of abuse-deterrent opioids on medical resource utilization.

Objectives: To extend a previously published manuscript on a model for estimating potential avoided medical events and cost savings in the US associated with the introduction of extended-release abuse-deterrent opioids and incorporate new methods of evaluating abuse deterrence using human abuse potential studies. Methods: A model was developed to estimate reductions in abuse-related events and annual savings in the US. Model inputs included: opioid abuse prevalence, abuse-deterrent opioid cost and effectiveness at deterring abuse, and opioid abuse-related events and costs. Direct (medical and drug) and indirect (work loss) cost savings (2017 US$) and abuse-related events were estimated assuming the replacement of the entire extended-release opioid market (brand and generic) by brand abuse-deterrent opioids. Results: Replacing the extended-release opioid market with abuse-deterrent opioids is estimated to lower annual abuse-related medical events by ∼13-31% (e.g. 78,000-186,000 emergency department visits) and lower annual medical costs by ∼$640 M-$1,538 M, depending on the abuse-deterrent technology (physical/chemical barrier or agonist/antagonist). Replacement of extended-release oxycodone with extended-release abuse-deterrent oxycodone is associated with the largest amount of cost savings and highest number of avoided medical events, followed by replacing extended-release morphine with an extended-release abuse-deterrent opioid. Replacement of transdermal fentanyl is associated with the smallest amount of cost savings and lowest number of avoided medical events. Conclusion: Agonist/antagonist abuse-deterrent opioid technology is associated with higher annual medical cost savings and more avoided events than physical/chemical barrier technology. Total net savings are dependent upon the abuse-deterrent opioid price relative to non-abuse-deterrent opioids.

Projecting the cost, utilization, and patient care impact of prescribing extended release non-abuse-deterrent opioids to chronic pain patients.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate healthcare resource utilization, associated costs, and number needed to harm (NNH) from a physician's decision to prescribe extended-release (ER) non-abuse-deterrent opioids (non-ADO) as compared to ER ADOs in a chronic pain population. DESIGN: A 12-month probabilistic simulation model was developed to estimate the reduction of misuse and/or abuse from a physician's prescribing decisions for 10,000 patients. Model inputs included probabilities for opioid misuse and/or abuse-related events, opioid discontinuation, and switching from ADO to non-ADO. Estimated reductions in abuse associated with ADOs were obtained from positive subjective measures using human abuse liability studies. The model was run separately for commercial, Medicare, Medicaid, and Veterans Administration (VA) populations. The difference in healthcare resource utilization and associated costs (2015 USD) between the ADO and non-ADO simulations was calculated. NNH for non-ADO was also calculated. RESULTS: Misuse and/or abuse-related events for patients prescribed ER non-ADOs ranged from 223-1,410 and associated costs ranged from $20-$98 per patient for commercial and Medicare populations, respectively. Prescribing ER ADOs were associated with 87, 289, 264, and 417 fewer misuse and/or abuse-related events, saving $8, $35, $21, and $29 per patient in commercial, VA, Medicaid, and Medicare populations, respectively. NNH ranged from 185 in the commercial population to 40 in the Medicare population. Results were sensitive to decreases in the probability of misuse and/or abuse events but showed reductions. CONCLUSIONS: A physician's decision to prescribe ER ADOs could lead to large reductions in misuse and/or abuse-related events and associated costs across many patient populations.