Time-sensitive testing pressures and COVID-19 outcomes: are socioeconomic inequalities over the first year of the pandemic explained by selection bias?

BACKGROUND: There are many ways in which selection bias might impact COVID-19 research. Here we focus on selection for receiving a polymerase-chain-reaction (PCR) SARS-CoV-2 test and how known changes to selection pressures over time may bias research into COVID-19 infection. METHODS: Using UK Biobank (N = 420,231; 55% female; mean age = 66.8 [SD = 8·11]) we estimate the association between socio-economic position (SEP) and (i) being tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection versus not being tested (ii) testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection versus testing negative and (iii) testing negative for SARS-CoV-2 infection versus not being tested. We construct four distinct time-periods between March 2020 and March 2021, representing distinct periods of testing pressures and lockdown restrictions and specify both time-stratified and combined models for each outcome. We explore potential selection bias by examining associations with positive and negative control exposures. RESULTS: The association between more disadvantaged SEP and receiving a SARS-CoV-2 test attenuated over time. Compared to individuals with a degree, individuals whose highest educational qualification was a GCSE or equivalent had an OR of 1·27 (95% CI: 1·18 to 1·37) in March-May 2020 and 1·13 (95% CI: 1.·10 to 1·16) in January-March 2021. The magnitude of the association between educational attainment and testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection increased over the same period. For the equivalent comparison, the OR for testing positive increased from 1·25 (95% CI: 1·04 to 1·47), to 1·69 (95% CI: 1·55 to 1·83). We found little evidence of an association between control exposures, and any considered outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The association between SEP and SARS-CoV-2 testing changed over time, highlighting the potential of time-specific selection pressures to bias analyses of COVID-19. Positive and negative control analyses suggest that changes in the association between SEP and SARS-CoV-2 infection over time likely reflect true increases in socioeconomic inequalities.

Gallbladder Cancer Risk and Indigenous South American Mapuche Ancestry: Instrumental Variable Analysis Using Ancestry-Informative Markers.

A strong association between the proportion of indigenous South American Mapuche ancestry and the risk of gallbladder cancer (GBC) has been reported in observational studies. Chileans show the highest incidence of GBC worldwide, and the Mapuche are the largest indigenous people in Chile. We set out to assess the confounding-free effect of the individual proportion of Mapuche ancestry on GBC risk and to investigate the mediating effects of gallstone disease and body mass index (BMI) on this association. Genetic markers of Mapuche ancestry were selected based on the informativeness for assignment measure, and then used as instrumental variables in two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses and complementary sensitivity analyses. Results suggested a putatively causal effect of Mapuche ancestry on GBC risk (inverse variance-weighted (IVW) risk increase of 0.8% per 1% increase in Mapuche ancestry proportion, 95% CI 0.4% to 1.2%, p = 6.7 × 10-5) and also on gallstone disease (3.6% IVW risk increase, 95% CI 3.1% to 4.0%), pointing to a mediating effect of gallstones on the association between Mapuche ancestry and GBC. In contrast, the proportion of Mapuche ancestry showed a negative effect on BMI (IVW estimate -0.006 kg/m2, 95% CI -0.009 to -0.003). The results presented here may have significant implications for GBC prevention and are important for future admixture mapping studies. Given that the association between the individual proportion of Mapuche ancestry and GBC risk previously noted in observational studies appears to be free of confounding, primary and secondary prevention strategies that consider genetic ancestry could be particularly efficient.

Educational inequality in multimorbidity: causality and causal pathways. A mendelian randomisation study in UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity, typically defined as having two or more long-term health conditions, is associated with reduced wellbeing and life expectancy. Understanding the determinants of multimorbidity, including whether they are causal, may help with the design and prioritisation of prevention interventions. This study seeks to assess the causality of education, BMI, smoking and alcohol as determinants of multimorbidity, and the degree to which BMI, smoking and alcohol mediate differences in multimorbidity by level of education. METHODS: Participants were 181,214 females and 155,677 males, mean ages 56.7 and 57.1 years respectively, from UK Biobank. We used a Mendelian randomization design; an approach that uses genetic variants as instrumental variables to interrogate causality. RESULTS: The prevalence of multimorbidity was 55.1%. Mendelian randomization suggests that lower education, higher BMI and higher levels of smoking causally increase the risk of multimorbidity. For example, one standard deviation (equivalent to 5.1 years) increase in genetically-predicted years of education decreases the risk of multimorbidity by 9.0% (95% CI: 6.5 to 11.4%). A 5 kg/m2 increase in genetically-predicted BMI increases the risk of multimorbidity by 9.2% (95% CI: 8.1 to 10.3%) and a one SD higher lifetime smoking index increases the risk of multimorbidity by 6.8% (95% CI: 3.3 to 10.4%). Evidence for a causal effect of genetically-predicted alcohol consumption on multimorbidity was less strong; an increase of 5 units of alcohol per week increases the risk of multimorbidity by 1.3% (95% CI: 0.2 to 2.5%). The proportions of the association between education and multimorbidity explained by BMI and smoking are 20.4% and 17.6% respectively. Collectively, BMI and smoking account for 31.8% of the educational inequality in multimorbidity. CONCLUSIONS: Education, BMI, smoking and alcohol consumption are intervenable causal risk factors for multimorbidity. Furthermore, BMI and lifetime smoking make a considerable contribution to the generation of educational inequalities in multimorbidity. Public health interventions that improve population-wide levels of these risk factors are likely to reduce multimorbidity and inequalities in its occurrence.

Investigating effect modification between childhood maltreatment and genetic risk for cardiovascular disease in the UK Biobank.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is influenced by genetic and environmental factors. Childhood maltreatment is associated with CVD and may modify genetic susceptibility to cardiovascular risk factors. We used genetic and phenotypic data from 100,833 White British UK Biobank participants (57% female; mean age = 55.9 years). We regressed nine cardiovascular risk factors/diseases (alcohol consumption, body mass index [BMI], low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, lifetime smoking behaviour, systolic blood pressure, atrial fibrillation, coronary heart disease, type 2 diabetes, and stroke) on their respective polygenic scores (PGS) and self-reported exposure to childhood maltreatment. Effect modification was tested on the additive and multiplicative scales by including a product term (PGS*maltreatment) in regression models. On the additive scale, childhood maltreatment accentuated the effect of genetic susceptibility to higher BMI (Peffect modification: 0.003). Individuals not exposed to childhood maltreatment had an increase in BMI of 0.12 SD (95% CI: 0.11, 0.13) per SD increase in BMI PGS, compared to 0.17 SD (95% CI: 0.14, 0.19) in those exposed to all types of childhood maltreatment. On the multiplicative scale, similar results were obtained for BMI though these did not withstand to Bonferroni correction. There was little evidence of effect modification by childhood maltreatment in relation to other outcomes, or of sex-specific effect modification. Our study suggests the effects of genetic susceptibility to a higher BMI may be moderately accentuated in individuals exposed to childhood maltreatment. However, gene*environment interactions are likely not a major contributor to the excess CVD burden experienced by childhood maltreatment victims.

Glycoprotein acetyls and depression: Testing for directionality and potential causality using longitudinal data and Mendelian randomization analyses.

BACKGROUND: Inflammation is associated with depression, but causality remains unclear. We investigated potential causality and direction of effect between inflammation and depression. METHODS: Using data from the ALSPAC birth cohort (n = 4021; 42.18 % male), we used multivariable regression to investigate bidirectional longitudinal associations of GlycA and depression and depression symptoms, assessed at ages 18y and 24y. We used two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) to investigate potential causality and directionality. Genetic variants for GlycA were obtained from UK Biobank (UKB) (N = 115,078); for depression from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium and UKB (N = 500,199); and for depressive symptoms (N = 161,460) from the Social Science Genetic Association Consortium. In addition to the Inverse Variance Weighted method, we used sensitivity analyses to strengthen causal inference. We conducted multivariable MR adjusting for body mass index (BMI) due to known genetic correlation between inflammation, depression and BMI. RESULTS: In the cohort analysis, after adjusting for potential confounders we found no evidence of associations between GlycA and depression symptoms score or vice versa. We observed an association between GlycA and depression (OR = 1∙18, 95 % CI: 1∙03-1∙36). MR suggested no causal effect of GlycA on depression, but there was a causal effect of depression on GlycA (mean difference in GlycA = 0∙09; 95 % CI: 0∙03-0∙16), which was maintained in some, but not all, sensitivity analyses. LIMITATIONS: The GWAS sample overlap could incur bias. CONCLUSION: We found no consistent evidence for an effect of GlycA on depression. There was evidence that depression increases GlycA in the MR analysis, but this may be confounded/mediated by BMI.

Exploring the impact of selection bias in observational studies of COVID-19: a simulation study.

BACKGROUND: Non-random selection of analytic subsamples could introduce selection bias in observational studies. We explored the potential presence and impact of selection in studies of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 prognosis. METHODS: We tested the association of a broad range of characteristics with selection into COVID-19 analytic subsamples in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) and UK Biobank (UKB). We then conducted empirical analyses and simulations to explore the potential presence, direction and magnitude of bias due to this selection (relative to our defined UK-based adult target populations) when estimating the association of body mass index (BMI) with SARS-CoV-2 infection and death-with-COVID-19. RESULTS: In both cohorts, a broad range of characteristics was related to selection, sometimes in opposite directions (e.g. more-educated people were more likely to have data on SARS-CoV-2 infection in ALSPAC, but less likely in UKB). Higher BMI was associated with higher odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection and death-with-COVID-19. We found non-negligible bias in many simulated scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: Analyses using COVID-19 self-reported or national registry data may be biased due to selection. The magnitude and direction of this bias depend on the outcome definition, the true effect of the risk factor and the assumed selection mechanism; these are likely to differ between studies with different target populations. Bias due to sample selection is a key concern in COVID-19 research based on national registry data, especially as countries end free mass testing. The framework we have used can be applied by other researchers assessing the extent to which their results may be biased for their research question of interest.

Applying Mendelian randomization to appraise causality in relationships between nutrition and cancer.

Dietary factors are assumed to play an important role in cancer risk, apparent in consensus recommendations for cancer prevention that promote nutritional changes. However, the evidence in this field has been generated predominantly through observational studies, which may result in biased effect estimates because of confounding, exposure misclassification, and reverse causality. With major geographical differences and rapid changes in cancer incidence over time, it is crucial to establish which of the observational associations reflect causality and to identify novel risk factors as these may be modified to prevent the onset of cancer and reduce its progression. Mendelian randomization (MR) uses the special properties of germline genetic variation to strengthen causal inference regarding potentially modifiable exposures and disease risk. MR can be implemented through instrumental variable (IV) analysis and, when robustly performed, is generally less prone to confounding, reverse causation and measurement error than conventional observational methods and has different sources of bias (discussed in detail below). It is increasingly used to facilitate causal inference in epidemiology and provides an opportunity to explore the effects of nutritional exposures on cancer incidence and progression in a cost-effective and timely manner. Here, we introduce the concept of MR and discuss its current application in understanding the impact of nutritional factors (e.g., any measure of diet and nutritional intake, circulating biomarkers, patterns, preference or behaviour) on cancer aetiology and, thus, opportunities for MR to contribute to the development of nutritional recommendations and policies for cancer prevention. We provide applied examples of MR studies examining the role of nutritional factors in cancer to illustrate how this method can be used to help prioritise or deprioritise the evaluation of specific nutritional factors as intervention targets in randomised controlled trials. We describe possible biases when using MR, and methodological developments aimed at investigating and potentially overcoming these biases when present. Lastly, we consider the use of MR in identifying causally relevant nutritional risk factors for various cancers in different regions across the world, given notable geographical differences in some cancers. We also discuss how MR results could be translated into further research and policy. We conclude that findings from MR studies, which corroborate those from other well-conducted studies with different and orthogonal biases, are poised to substantially improve our understanding of nutritional influences on cancer. For such corroboration, there is a requirement for an interdisciplinary and collaborative approach to investigate risk factors for cancer incidence and progression.

Separating the direct effects of traits on atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease from those mediated by type 2 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Type 2 diabetes and atherosclerotic CVD share many risk factors. This study aimed to systematically assess a broad range of continuous traits to separate their direct effects on coronary and peripheral artery disease from those mediated by type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Our main analysis was a two-step Mendelian randomisation for mediation to quantify the extent to which the associations observed between continuous traits and liability to atherosclerotic CVD were mediated by liability to type 2 diabetes. To support this analysis, we performed several univariate Mendelian randomisation analyses to examine the associations between our continuous traits, liability to type 2 diabetes and liability to atherosclerotic CVD. RESULTS: Eight traits were eligible for the two-step Mendelian randomisation with liability to coronary artery disease as the outcome and we found similar direct and total effects in most cases. Exceptions included fasting insulin and hip circumference where the proportion mediated by liability to type 2 diabetes was estimated as 56% and 52%, respectively. Six traits were eligible for the analysis with liability to peripheral artery disease as the outcome. Again, we found limited evidence to support mediation by liability to type 2 diabetes for all traits apart from fasting insulin (proportion mediated: 70%). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Most traits were found to affect liability to atherosclerotic CVD independently of their relationship with liability to type 2 diabetes. These traits are therefore important for understanding atherosclerotic CVD risk regardless of an individual's liability to type 2 diabetes.

Educational attainment as a modifier for the effect of polygenic scores for cardiovascular risk factors: cross-sectional and prospective analysis of UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the interplay between educational attainment and genetic predictors of cardiovascular risk may improve our understanding of the aetiology of educational inequalities in cardiovascular disease. METHODS: In up to 320 120 UK Biobank participants of White British ancestry (mean age = 57 years, female 54%), we created polygenic scores for nine cardiovascular risk factors or diseases: alcohol consumption, body mass index, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, lifetime smoking behaviour, systolic blood pressure, atrial fibrillation, coronary heart disease, type 2 diabetes and stroke. We estimated whether educational attainment modified genetic susceptibility to these risk factors and diseases. RESULTS: On the additive scale, higher educational attainment reduced genetic susceptibility to higher body mass index, smoking, atrial fibrillation and type 2 diabetes, but increased genetic susceptibility to higher LDL-C and higher systolic blood pressure. On the multiplicative scale, there was evidence that higher educational attainment increased genetic susceptibility to atrial fibrillation and coronary heart disease, but little evidence of effect modification was found for all other traits considered. CONCLUSIONS: Educational attainment modifies the genetic susceptibility to some cardiovascular risk factors and diseases. The direction of this effect was mixed across traits considered and differences in associations between the effect of the polygenic score across strata of educational attainment was uniformly small. Therefore, any effect modification by education of genetic susceptibility to cardiovascular risk factors or diseases is unlikely to substantially explain the development of inequalities in cardiovascular risk.

The impact of education inequality on rheumatoid arthritis risk is mediated by smoking and body mass index: Mendelian randomization study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the causal relationship between educational attainment-as a proxy for socioeconomic inequality-and risk of RA, and quantify the roles of smoking and BMI as potential mediators. METHODS: Using the largest genome-wide association studies (GWAS), we performed a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) study of genetically predicted educational attainment (instrumented using 1265 variants from 766 345 individuals) and RA (14 361 cases, 43 923 controls). We used two-step MR to quantify the proportion of education's effect on RA mediated by smoking exposure (as a composite index capturing duration, heaviness and cessation, using 124 variants from 462 690 individuals) and BMI (517 variants, 681 275 individuals), and multivariable MR to estimate proportion mediated by both factors combined. RESULTS: Each s.d. increase in educational attainment (4.2 years of schooling) was protective of RA (odds ratio 0.37; 95% CI: 0.31, 0.44). Higher educational attainment was also protective for smoking exposure (ß = -0.25 s.d.; 95% CI: -0.26, -0.23) and BMI [ß = -0.27 s.d. (∼1.3 kg/m2); 95% CI: -0.31, -0.24]. Smoking mediated 24% (95% CI: 13%, 35%) and BMI 17% (95% CI: 11%, 23%) of the total effect of education on RA. Combined, the two risk factors explained 47% (95% CI: 11%, 82%) of the total effect. CONCLUSION: Higher educational attainment has a protective effect on RA risk. Interventions to reduce smoking and excess adiposity at a population level may reduce this risk, but a large proportion of education's effect on RA remains unexplained. Further research into other risk factors that act as potentially modifiable mediators are required.

Mental Health as a Mediator of the Association Between Educational Inequality and Cardiovascular Disease: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

Background Education is inversely associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Several mediators of this have been established; however, a proportion of the protective effect remains unaccounted for. Mental health is a proposed mediator, but current evidence is mixed and subject to bias from confounding factors and reverse causation. Mendelian randomization is an instrumental variable technique that uses genetic proxies for exposures and mediators to reduce such bias. Methods and Results We performed logistic regression and 2-step Mendelian randomization analyses using UK Biobank data and genetic summary statistics to investigate whether educational attainment affects risk of mental health disorders. We then performed mediation analyses to explore whether mental health disorders mediate the association between educational attainment and cardiovascular risk. Higher levels of educational attainment were associated with reduced depression, anxiety, and CVD in observational analyses (odds ratio [OR], 0.79 [95% CI, 0.77-0.81], 0.76 [95% CI, 0.73-0.79], and 0.75 [95% CI, 0.74-0.76], respectively), and Mendelian randomization analyses provided evidence of causality (OR, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.67-0.77], 0.50 [95% CI, 0.42-0.59], and 0.62 [95% CI, 0.58-0.66], respectively). Both anxiety and depression were associated with CVD in observational analyses (OR, 1.63 [95% CI, 1.49-1.79] and 1.70 [95% CI, 1.59-1.82], respectively) but only depression showed evidence of causality in the Mendelian randomization analyses (OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.03-1.15). An estimated 2% of the total protective effect of education on CVD was mediated by depression. Conclusions Higher levels of educational attainment protect against mental health disorders, and reduced depression accounts for a small proportion of the total protective effect of education on CVD.

Mendelian randomisation for mediation analysis: current methods and challenges for implementation.

Mediation analysis seeks to explain the pathway(s) through which an exposure affects an outcome. Traditional, non-instrumental variable methods for mediation analysis experience a number of methodological difficulties, including bias due to confounding between an exposure, mediator and outcome and measurement error. Mendelian randomisation (MR) can be used to improve causal inference for mediation analysis. We describe two approaches that can be used for estimating mediation analysis with MR: multivariable MR (MVMR) and two-step MR. We outline the approaches and provide code to demonstrate how they can be used in mediation analysis. We review issues that can affect analyses, including confounding, measurement error, weak instrument bias, interactions between exposures and mediators and analysis of multiple mediators. Description of the methods is supplemented by simulated and real data examples. Although MR relies on large sample sizes and strong assumptions, such as having strong instruments and no horizontally pleiotropic pathways, our simulations demonstrate that these methods are unaffected by confounders of the exposure or mediator and the outcome and non-differential measurement error of the exposure or mediator. Both MVMR and two-step MR can be implemented in both individual-level MR and summary data MR. MR mediation methods require different assumptions to be made, compared with non-instrumental variable mediation methods. Where these assumptions are more plausible, MR can be used to improve causal inference in mediation analysis.

Risk factors mediating the effect of body mass index and waist-to-hip ratio on cardiovascular outcomes: Mendelian randomization analysis.

BACKGROUND: Higher body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) increase the risk of cardiovascular disease, but the extent to which this is mediated by blood pressure, diabetes, lipid traits, and smoking is not fully understood. METHODS: Using consortia and UK Biobank genetic association summary data from 140,595 to 898,130 participants predominantly of European ancestry, Mendelian randomization mediation analysis was performed to investigate the degree to which systolic blood pressure (SBP), diabetes, lipid traits, and smoking mediated an effect of BMI and WHR on the risk of coronary artery disease (CAD), peripheral artery disease (PAD) and stroke. RESULTS: The odds ratio of CAD per 1-standard deviation increase in genetically predicted BMI was 1.49 (95% CI 1.39 to 1.60). This attenuated to 1.34 (95% CI 1.24 to 1.45) after adjusting for genetically predicted SBP (proportion mediated 27%, 95% CI 3% to 50%), to 1.27 (95% CI 1.17 to 1.37) after adjusting for genetically predicted diabetes (41% mediated, 95% CI 18% to 63%), to 1.47 (95% CI 1.36 to 1.59) after adjusting for genetically predicted lipids (3% mediated, 95% -23% to 29%), and to 1.46 (95% CI 1.34 to 1.58) after adjusting for genetically predicted smoking (6% mediated, 95% CI -20% to 32%). Adjusting for all the mediators together, the estimate attenuated to 1.14 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.26; 66% mediated, 95% CI 42% to 91%). A similar pattern was observed when considering genetically predicted WHR as the exposure, and PAD or stroke as the outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Measures to reduce obesity will lower the risk of cardiovascular disease primarily by impacting downstream metabolic risk factors, particularly diabetes and hypertension. Reduction of obesity prevalence alongside control and management of its mediators is likely to be most effective for minimizing the burden of obesity.

Bias from questionnaire invitation and response in COVID-19 research: an example using ALSPAC.

Background: Longitudinal studies are crucial for identifying potential risk factors for infection with, and consequences of, COVID-19, but relationships can be biased if they are associated with invitation and response to data collection. We describe factors relating to questionnaire invitation and response in COVID-19 questionnaire data collection in a multigenerational birth cohort (the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, ALSPAC). Methods: We analysed online questionnaires completed between the beginning of the pandemic and easing of the first UK lockdown by participants with valid email addresses who had not actively disengaged from the study. We assessed associations of pre-pandemic sociodemographic, behavioural, anthropometric and health-related factors with: i) being sent a questionnaire; ii) returning a questionnaire; and iii) item response (for specific questions). Analyses were conducted in three cohorts: the index children born in the early 1990s (now young adults; 41 variables assessed), their mothers (35 variables) and the mothers' partners (27 variables). Results: Of 14,849 young adults, 41% were sent a questionnaire, of whom 57% returned one. Item response was >95%. In this cohort, 78% of factors were associated with being sent a questionnaire, 56% with returning one, and, as an example of item response, 20% with keyworker status response. For instance, children from mothers educated to degree-level had greater odds of being sent a questionnaire (OR=5.59; 95% CI=4.87-6.41), returning one (OR=1.60; 95% CI=1.31-1.95), and responding to items (e.g., keyworker status OR=1.65; 95% CI=0.88-3.04), relative to children from mothers with fewer qualifications. Invitation and response rates and associations were similar in all cohorts. Conclusions: These results highlight the importance of considering potential biases due to non-response when using longitudinal studies in COVID-19 research and interpreting results. We recommend researchers report response rates and factors associated with invitation and response in all COVID-19 observational research studies, which can inform sensitivity analyses.

Metabolic profiles of socio-economic position: a multi-cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Low socio-economic position (SEP) is a risk factor for multiple health outcomes, but its molecular imprints in the body remain unclear. METHODS: We examined SEP as a determinant of serum nuclear magnetic resonance metabolic profiles in ∼30 000 adults and 4000 children across 10 UK and Finnish cohort studies. RESULTS: In risk-factor-adjusted analysis of 233 metabolic measures, low educational attainment was associated with 37 measures including higher levels of triglycerides in small high-density lipoproteins (HDL) and lower levels of docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), omega-3 fatty acids, apolipoprotein A1, large and very large HDL particles (including levels of their respective lipid constituents) and cholesterol measures across different density lipoproteins. Among adults whose father worked in manual occupations, associations with apolipoprotein A1, large and very large HDL particles and HDL-2 cholesterol remained after adjustment for SEP in later life. Among manual workers, levels of glutamine were higher compared with non-manual workers. All three indicators of low SEP were associated with lower DHA, omega-3 fatty acids and HDL diameter. At all ages, children of manual workers had lower levels of DHA as a proportion of total fatty acids. CONCLUSIONS: Our work indicates that social and economic factors have a measurable impact on human physiology. Lower SEP was independently associated with a generally unfavourable metabolic profile, consistent across ages and cohorts. The metabolites we found to be associated with SEP, including DHA, are known to predict cardiovascular disease and cognitive decline in later life and may contribute to health inequalities.

Role of the Metabolic Profile in Mediating the Relationship Between Body Mass Index and Left Ventricular Mass in Adolescents: Analysis of a Prospective Cohort Study.

Background We aimed to quantify the role of the plasma metabolic profile in explaining the effect of adiposity on cardiac structure. Methods and Results Body mass index (BMI) was measured at age 11 in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Left ventricular mass indexed to height2.7 (LVMI) was assessed by echocardiography at age 17. The metabolic profile was quantified via 1H-nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy at age 15. Multivariable confounder (maternal age, parity, highest qualification, maternal smoking, prepregnancy BMI, prepregnancy height, household social class, adolescent birthweight, adolescent smoking, fruit and vegetable consumption, and physical activity)-adjusted linear regression estimated the association of BMI with LVMI and mediation by metabolic traits. We considered 156 metabolomic traits individually and jointly as principal components explaining 95% of the variance in the nuclear magnetic resonance platform and assessed whether the principal components for the metabolic traits added to the proportion of the association explained by putative cardiovascular risk factors (systolic and diastolic blood pressures, insulin, triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and glucose). A 1 kg/m2 higher BMI was associated with a 0.70 g/m2.7 (95% CI, 0.53-0.88 g/m2.7) and 0.66 g/m2.7 (95% CI, 0.53-0.79 g/m2.7) higher LVMI in males (n=437) and females (n=536), respectively. Putative risk factors explained 3% (95% CI, 2%-5%) of this association in males, increasing to 10% (95% CI, 8%-13%) when including metabolic principal components. In females, the standard risk factors explained 3% (95% CI, 2%-5%) of the association and did not increase when including the metabolic principal components. Conclusions The addition of the nuclear magnetic resonance-measured metabolic traits appears to mediate more of the association of BMI on LVMI than the putative risk factors alone in adolescent males, but not females.