Sources of uncertainty in estimating HIV infection rates by back-calculation: an application to Italian data.

The effects on back-calculated HIV diffusion estimates of the uncertainties in a number of factors that may potentially influence the estimation process are examined and compared. More specifically, the effect on HIV infection estimates of uncertainties in: (i) the sequence of periodical AIDS incidence cases; (ii) the estimation of the AIDS incubation period, including the influence of therapeutic treatment on the same; and (iii) the choice of a particular back-calculation method, including the stochastic uncertainty associated with each method, are examined. The choice of one particular back-calculation model over another, among three different methods considered, seems to be a minor component of the uncertainty, when compared to the uncertainty, due to all other sources. HIV incidence and prevalence in Italy for different risk categories are estimated.

[The general practitioner and clinical records: a survey of the knowledge of users of a software package]. / Medico di base e cartelle cliniche: indagine conoscitiva su utenti in possesso di un pacchetto software.

The FATMA project--subproject 6, Line of Research 2--aims at implementing a new computerized information network for general practitioners using the same kind of software and homogeneously located throughout Italy. Thus, patients' case form data can be collected for public health purposes. After a study of literature in order to check whether other countries had implemented similar projects and what they consisted of, a survey based on a computerized questionnaire was carried out on a group of g.p.s. who had already received a software for the management of their clinical and professional activities from Janssen Informedica. This survey aimed at judging some aspects of users in order to select potential monitors of the information network who would test a new software. The analysis regards both g.p.s' social and professional data and the use of a computer package with reference to the quality and quantity of the clinical data they input. 2,010 questionnaires were filled in all their parts and mailed back to Informedica. It came out that g.p.s. believe more and more they can improve the organization and management of their work by using a software equipped with routines and easy access procedures so that clinical data, diagnostic reports and treatment can be collected, placed on files and updated. Thus, a new software should be developed. While meeting g.p.s' needs, it must overcome the limits of packages now available concerning the possibility of carrying out epidemiological studies. The software can become a tool to collect clinical data of patients, diseases and diagnostic procedures through standard protocols directly from g.p.s records.