Recalibrating single-study effect sizes using hierarchical Bayesian models.

Introduction: There are growing concerns about commonly inflated effect sizes in small neuroimaging studies, yet no study has addressed recalibrating effect size estimates for small samples. To tackle this issue, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian model to adjust the magnitude of single-study effect sizes while incorporating a tailored estimation of sampling variance. Methods: We estimated the effect sizes of case-control differences on brain structural features between individuals who were dependent on alcohol, nicotine, cocaine, methamphetamine, or cannabis and non-dependent participants for 21 individual studies (Total cases: 903; Total controls: 996). Then, the study-specific effect sizes were modeled using a hierarchical Bayesian approach in which the parameters of the study-specific effect size distributions were sampled from a higher-order overarching distribution. The posterior distribution of the overarching and study-specific parameters was approximated using the Gibbs sampling method. Results: The results showed shrinkage of the posterior distribution of the study-specific estimates toward the overarching estimates given the original effect sizes observed in individual studies. Differences between the original effect sizes (i.e., Cohen's d) and the point estimate of the posterior distribution ranged from 0 to 0.97. The magnitude of adjustment was negatively correlated with the sample size (r = -0.27, p < 0.001) and positively correlated with empirically estimated sampling variance (r = 0.40, p < 0.001), suggesting studies with smaller samples and larger sampling variance tended to have greater adjustments. Discussion: Our findings demonstrate the utility of the hierarchical Bayesian model in recalibrating single-study effect sizes using information from similar studies. This suggests that Bayesian utilization of existing knowledge can be an effective alternative approach to improve the effect size estimation in individual studies, particularly for those with smaller samples.

Mapping cortical and subcortical asymmetries in substance dependence: Findings from the ENIGMA Addiction Working Group.

Brain asymmetry reflects left-right hemispheric differentiation, which is a quantitative brain phenotype that develops with age and can vary with psychiatric diagnoses. Previous studies have shown that substance dependence is associated with altered brain structure and function. However, it is unknown whether structural brain asymmetries are different in individuals with substance dependence compared with nondependent participants. Here, a mega-analysis was performed using a collection of 22 structural brain MRI datasets from the ENIGMA Addiction Working Group. Structural asymmetries of cortical and subcortical regions were compared between individuals who were dependent on alcohol, nicotine, cocaine, methamphetamine, or cannabis (n = 1,796) and nondependent participants (n = 996). Substance-general and substance-specific effects on structural asymmetry were examined using separate models. We found that substance dependence was significantly associated with differences in volume asymmetry of the nucleus accumbens (NAcc; less rightward; Cohen's d = 0.15). This effect was driven by differences from controls in individuals with alcohol dependence (less rightward; Cohen's d = 0.10) and nicotine dependence (less rightward; Cohen's d = 0.11). These findings suggest that disrupted structural asymmetry in the NAcc may be a characteristic of substance dependence.