Application of the updated International IgA Nephropathy Prediction Tool in children one or two years post-biopsy.

The pediatric International IgA Nephropathy (IgAN) Prediction Tool comprises two models with and without ethnicity and is the first method to predict the risk of a 30% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or kidney failure in children at the time of biopsy using clinical risk factors and Oxford MEST histology scores. However, it is unknown if the Prediction Tool can be applied after a period of observation post-biopsy. Using an international multi-ethnic cohort of 947 children with IgAN, 38% of whom were followed into adulthood, the Prediction Tool was updated for use one year after biopsy. Compared to the original pediatric Prediction Tool, the updated post-biopsy Prediction Tool had a better model fit with higher R2D (51%/50% vs 20%), significant increase in 4-year C-statistics (0.83 vs 0.73/0.69, ΔC 0.09 [95% confidence interval 0.07-0.10] and ΔC 0.14 [0.12-0.15]) and better 4-year calibration with lower integrated calibration indices (0.74/0.54 vs 2.45/1.01). Results were similar after internal validation and when the models were applied two years after biopsy. Trajectories of eGFR after a baseline one year post-biopsy were non-linear and those at higher predicted risk started with a lower eGFR and experienced a more rapid decline over time. In children, eGFR had a variable rate of increase until 15-18 years old and then decreased linearly with a more rapid decline in higher risk groups that was similar to young adults of comparable risk. Thus, the original pediatric Prediction Tool should be used in children at the time of biopsy, and the updated pediatric Prediction Tool should be used to re-evaluate risk one or two years after biopsy.

Rituximab or cyclosporine a for the treatment of membranous nephropathy: Economic evaluation of the MENTOR trial.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: The MENTOR trial (MEmbranous Nephropathy Trial Of Rituximab) showed that rituximab was noninferior to cyclosporine in inducing complete or partial remission of proteinuria and was superior in maintaining proteinuria remission. However, the cost of rituximab may prohibit first-line use for some patients and health care payers. METHODS: A Markov model was used to determine the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of rituximab compared with cyclosporine for the treatment membranous nephropathy from the perspective of a health care payer with a life-time time horizon. The model was informed by data from the MENTOR trial where possible; additional parameters including cost and utility inputs were obtained from the literature. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the impact of reduced cost biosimilar rituximab. RESULTS: Rituximab for the treatment of membranous nephropathy was cost-effective (assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of ${\$}$50 000 per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained; ${\$}$US 2021) compared with cyclosporine, with an ICER of ${\$}$8 373/QALY over a lifetime time horizon. The incremental cost of rituximab therapy was ${\$}$28 007 with an additional 3.34 QALYs compared with cyclosporine. Lower cost of rituximab biosimilars resulted in a more favourable ICER, and in some cases resulted in rituximab being dominant (lower cost and great benefit) compared to cyclosporine. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the greater cost of rituximab, it may be a cost-effective option for the treatment of membranous nephropathy when compared with cyclosporine. The cost-effectiveness of rituximab is further improved with the use of less expensive biosimilars.

Evaluating Progression Risk in Patients With Immunoglobulin A Nephropathy.

The highly variable rate of decline in kidney function in patients with immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) provides a major clinical challenge. Predicting which patients will progress to kidney failure, and how quickly, is difficult. Multiple novel therapies are likely to be approved in the short-term, but clinicians lack the tools to identify patients most likely to benefit from specific treatments at the right time. Noninvasive and validated markers for selecting at-risk patients and longitudinal monitoring are urgently needed. This review summarizes what is known about demographic, clinical, and histopathologic prognostic markers in the clinician's toolkit, including the International IgAN Prediction Tool. We also briefly review what is known on these topics in children and adolescents with IgAN. Although helpful, currently used markers leave clinicians heavily reliant on histologic features from the diagnostic kidney biopsy and standard clinical data to guide treatment choice, and very few noninvasive markers reflect treatment efficacy over time. Novel prognostic and predictive markers are under clinical investigation, with considerable progress being made in markers of complement activation. Other areas of research are the interplay between gut microbiota and galactose-deficient IgA1 expression; microRNAs; imaging; artificial intelligence; and markers of fibrosis. Given the rate of therapeutic advancement, the remaining gaps in biomarker research need to be addressed. We finish by describing our route to clinical utility of predictive and prognostic markers in IgAN. This route will provide us with the chance to improve IgAN prognosis by using robust, clinically practical markers to inform patient care.