SPISE and other fasting indexes of insulin resistance: risks of coronary heart disease or type 2 diabetes. Comparative cross-sectional and longitudinal aspects.

Background: Fasting insulin resistance indexes are used extensively nowadays. We intended to analyze a new recently presented fasting index, SPISE (sensitivity formula: 600 × HDL-cholesterol0.185/triglycerides0.2/BMI1.338), in comparison with three previously known fasting indexes, regarding correlation with the insulin clamp index, and for the predictive effects of future long-term risks of coronary heart disease (CHD) or manifest type 2 diabetes.Methods: A total of 1049 71-year-old male subjects from the Swedish ULSAM study, median follow-up 8 years, were included. All subjects performed the euglycemic insulin clamp, and analyses of four fasting insulin resistance indexes: SPISE-IR (= 10/SPISE), QUICKI-IR, Log HOMA-IR, and Revised QUICKI-IR.Results: Spearman correlation coefficients with the insulin clamp were 0.60-0.62 for all indexes. Area under curve at ROC analysis was 0.80 for SPISE-IR, and 0.84 for QUICKI-IR, Log HOMA-IR, and Rev QUICKI-IR. Adjusted hazard ratios per 1 SD index increase for long-term risk CHD were similar in all patients: 1.20-1.24 (p = 0.02-0.03). However, comparing the highest quartile (recommended to define insulin resistance) with the lower quartiles, SPISE-IR was the strongest and the only statistically significant insulin resistance index: HR 1.53 (p = 0.02). Adjusted odds ratios per 1 SD index increase for long-term risk of type 2 diabetes were fairly similar (p < 0.001) in all patients: 1.62 for SPISE-IR, 1.97 for QUICKI-IR and Log HOMA-IR, and 2.04 for Rev QUICKI-IR, and also when comparing the highest versus the lower quartiles: 2.8-3.1 (p < 0.001).Conclusion: SPISE, easily applicable, performed equally well as other fasting insulin indexes previously recommended for clinical use, regarding correlation with the insulin clamp, and as predictor for future long-term risks of CHD or type 2 diabetes.

Considerably decreased risk of cardiovascular disease with combined reductions in HbA1c, blood pressure and blood lipids in type 2 diabetes: Report from the Swedish National Diabetes Register.

OBJECTIVES: Assess the effect of risk factors changes on risk for cardiovascular disease and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes selected from the Swedish National Diabetes Register. METHODS: Observational study of 13,477 females and males aged 30-75 years, with baseline HbA1c 41-67 mmol/mol, systolic blood pressure 122-154 mmHg and ratio non-HDL:HDL 1.7-4.1, followed for mean 6.5 years until 2012. Four groups were created: a reference group (n = 6757) with increasing final versus baseline HbA1c, systolic blood pressure and non-HDL:HDL cholesterol during the study period, and three groups with decreasing HbA1c (n = 1925), HbA1c and systolic blood pressure (n = 2050) or HbA1c and systolic blood pressure and non-HDL:HDL (n = 2745). RESULTS: Relative risk reduction for fatal/nonfatal cardiovascular disease was 35% with decrease in HbA1c only (mean 6 to final 49 mmol/mol), 56% with decrease in HbA1c and systolic blood pressure (mean 12 to final 128 mmHg) and 75% with combined decreases in HbA1c, systolic blood pressure and non-HDL:HDL (mean 0.8 to final 2.1), all p < 0.001 adjusting for clinical characteristics, other risk factors, treatments and previous cardiovascular disease. Similar risk reductions were found for fatal/nonfatal coronary heart disease, fatal cardiovascular disease, all-cause mortality and also in a subgroup of 3038 patients with albuminuria. CONCLUSION: Considerable risk reductions for cardiovascular disease and mortality were seen with combined long-term risk factor improvement.

Comparison between indexes of insulin resistance for risk prediction of cardiovascular diseases or development of diabetes.

AIM: The predictive effect of various insulin resistance indexes for risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) or type 2 diabetes (T2DM) is still unclear. METHODS: One thousand and forty-nine 71-years-old male subjects from the Swedish ULSAM study, mean follow-up 9 years. All subjects performed the euglycemic insulin clamp for M/I [glucose disposal/mean insulin], and 75-g oral glucose tolerance test for Ceder-IR: 1/glucose uptake rate/[mean glucose×log mean insulin]; Matsuda-IR: 1/10,000/square root [glucose0×insulin0×glucose120×insulin120]; Belfiore-IR: 1/([glucose0+glucose120]/normal mean glucose×[insulin0+insulin120]/normal mean insulin)+1); and HOMA-IR: [glucose0×insulin0]/22.5. RESULTS: Bland-Altman plots showed best agreement between M/I versus Belfiore-IR and Ceder-IR with mean difference near zero, -0.21 to -0.46, while -0.68 to -0.77 for the other indexes. ISI-Ceder was the strongest predictor for incident nonfatal/fatal ischemic heart disease (CHD) or CVD at Cox regression in all subjects, and for incident T2DM at logistic regression in 1024 subjects with no baseline T2DM, with significantly higher hazard ratios or odds ratios than with all other indexes, also with best model fit, after adjusting for clinical characteristics and the traditional cardiovascular risk factors, including metabolic syndrome for CVD risk. CONCLUSION: Ceder-IR performed strongest as independent predictor for incidences of CHD/CVD and T2DM.

Insulin pump therapy, multiple daily injections, and cardiovascular mortality in 18,168 people with type 1 diabetes: observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the long term effects of continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (insulin pump therapy) on cardiovascular diseases and mortality in people with type 1 diabetes. DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING: Swedish National Diabetes Register, Sweden 2005-12. PARTICIPANTS: 18,168 people with type 1 diabetes, 2441 using insulin pump therapy and 15,727 using multiple daily insulin injections. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cox regression analysis was used to estimate hazard ratios for the outcomes, with stratification of propensity scores including clinical characteristics, risk factors for cardiovascular disease, treatments, and previous diseases. RESULTS: Follow-up was for a mean of 6.8 years until December 2012, with 114,135 person years. With multiple daily injections as reference, the adjusted hazard ratios for insulin pump treatment were significantly lower: 0.55 (95% confidence interval 0.36 to 0.83) for fatal coronary heart disease, 0.58 (0.40 to 0.85) for fatal cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease or stroke), and 0.73 (0.58 to 0.92) for all cause mortality. Hazard ratios were lower, but not significantly so, for fatal or non-fatal coronary heart disease and fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular disease. Unadjusted absolute differences were 3.0 events of fatal coronary heart disease per 1000 person years; corresponding figures were 3.3 for fatal cardiovascular disease and 5.7 for all cause mortality. When lower body mass index and previous cardiovascular diseases were excluded, results of subgroup analyses were similar to the results from complete data. A sensitivity analysis of unmeasured confounders in all individuals showed that an unmeasured confounders with hazard ratio of 1.3 would have to be present in >80% of the individuals treated with multiple daily injections versus not presence in those treated with pump therapy to invalidate the significantly lower hazard ratios for fatal cardiovascular disease. Data on patient education and frequency of blood glucose monitoring were missing, which might have influenced the observed association. CONCLUSION: Among people with type 1 diabetes use of insulin pump therapy is associated with lower cardiovascular mortality than treatment with multiple daily insulin injections.

Risk factors for atrial fibrillation in type 2 diabetes: report from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR).

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is more frequent in patients with diabetes than in the general population. However, characteristics contributing to AF risk in diabetes remain speculative. METHODS: Observational study of 83,162 patients with type 2 diabetes, aged 30-79 years, with no baseline AF, 17% had history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and 3.3% history of congestive heart failure (CHF), followed up for development of AF during mean 6.8 years from 2005-2007 to 2012. A subgroup of 67,780 patients without history of CVD or CHF was also analysed. RESULTS: Using Cox regression, cardiovascular risk factors associated with risk for AF were updated mean BMI (HR 1.31 per 5 kg/m(2)) or obesity (HR 1.51), updated mean systolic BP (SBP; HR 1.13 per 10 mmHg) or hypertension (HR 1.71), and cumulative microalbuminuria (HR 1.21), p < 0.001 for all analyses. Male sex, increasing age and height were also significant predictors. HRs were 1.76 for a history of CHF and 2.56 for in-study CHF, while 1.32 for history of CVD and 1.38 for in-study CHD (p < 0.001). Among patients without history of CVD or CHF, significant predictors were similarly BMI, SBP, and cumulative microalbuminuria and CHF. The risk of AF differed in the subgroups achieving or not achieving a target BP < 140/85 mmHg. The HRs for AF were (per 10 mmHg increase) 0.88 and 1.24, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The modifiable risk factors high BP, high BMI and albuminuria were strongly associated with AF in type 2 diabetes. CVD, advancing age and height were also associated with AF in type 2 diabetes.

Durability of oral hypoglycemic agents in drug naïve patients with type 2 diabetes: report from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR).

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the durability of monotherapy with different classes of oral hypoglycemic agents (OHAs) in drug naïve patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in real life. METHODS: Men and women with T2DM, who were new users of OHA monotherapy and registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Register July 2005-December 2011, were available (n=17 309) and followed for up to 5.5 years. Time to monotherapy failure, defined as discontinuation of continuous use with the initial agent, switch to a new agent, or add-on treatment of a second agent, was analyzed as a measure of durability. Baseline characteristics were balanced by propensity score matching 1:5 between groups of sulfonylurea (SU) versus metformin (n=4303) and meglitinide versus metformin (n=1308). HRs with 95% CIs were calculated using Cox regression models. RESULTS: SU and meglitinide, as compared with metformin, were associated with increased risk of monotherapy failure (HR 1.74; 95% CI 1.56 to 1.94 and 1.66; 1.37 to 2.00 for SU and meglitinide, respectively). When broken down by type of monotherapy failure, SU and meglitinide were associated with an increased risk of add-on treatment of a second agent (HR 3.14; 95% CI 2.66 to 3.69 and 2.52; 1.89 to 3.37 for SU and meglitinide, respectively) and of switch to a new agent (HR 2.81; 95% CI 2.01 to 3.92 and 3.78; 2.25 to 6.32 for SU and meglitinide, respectively). The risk of discontinuation did not differ significantly between the groups. CONCLUSIONS: In this nationwide observational study reflecting clinical practice, SU and meglitinide showed substantially increased risk of switch to a new agent or add on of a second agent compared with metformin. These results indicate superior glycemic durability with metformin compared with SU and also meglitinide in real life.

Excess body weight and cancer risk in patients with type 2 diabetes who were registered in Swedish National Diabetes Register--register-based cohort study in Sweden.

AIM: To assess the association between excess body weight and cancer risk in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) who were registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR). METHODS: This is a cohort study based on 25,268 patients with T2D and baseline BMI≥18.5 kg/m(2) from NDR 1997-1999. Subjects were grouped according to BMI into normal weight (18.5 to 24.9), overweight (25 to 29.9) or obesity (30 or more). All subjects were followed until the first occurrence of cancer, or death, or the end of follow-up (December 31, 2009). Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for cancer risks were estimated by Cox regression. RESULTS: In men with T2D, overweight was associated with increased risks of all cancer [1.13 (1.02-1.27)], gastrointestinal cancer [1.34 (1.07-1.72)] and colorectal cancer [1.59 (1.18-2.13)]; obesity was related to higher risks of all cancer [1.17 (1.04-1.33)], gastrointestinal cancer [1.40 (1.08-1.82)] and colorectal cancer [1.62 (1.17-2.24)]. In women with T2D, obesity was associated with increased risk of all cancer [1.30 (1.12-1.51)], gastrointestinal cancer [1.40 (1.03-1.91)] and postmenopausal breast cancer [1.39 (1.00-1.91)]. CONCLUSIONS: Excess body weight was associated with increased risks of all cancer, gastrointestinal cancer and colorectal cancer in men with T2D. Obesity was related with elevated risks of all cancer, gestational cancer and postmenopausal breast cancer in women with T2D.

The triglycerides-to-HDL-cholesterol ratio and cardiovascular disease risk in obese patients with type 2 diabetes: an observational study from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR).

AIMS: Assessing the association between BMI and risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes, also with regard to higher or lower levels of the ratio triglycerides-to-HDL-cholesterol (TG:HDL). METHODS: 54,061 patients with BMI≥18.5kg/m(2), mean age and duration 61.5±8 and 6.9±6 years, 59% males, 14% with CVD history, from the Swedish National Diabetes Register, followed for mean 4.8 years. RESULTS: Adjusting at Cox regression for non-BMI-linked (age, sex, smoking, CVD history) and BMI-linked (blood lipids, blood pressure, HbA1c, albuminuria) covariates, hazard ratios (HR) for fatal/nonfatal CHD and CVD were mainly increased with prominent obesity (BMI≥35kg/m(2)), 1.19 (p=0.01) and 1.17 (p=0.009), compared to normal weight (BMI 18.5-24.9kg/m(2)), although increased also with obesity (BMI 30-34.9kg/m(2)), 1.34 and 1.30 (p<0.001), when adjusting only for non-BMI-linked covariates. Stratifying by 75th percentile of TG:HDL, with normal weight and TG:HDL<1.9 as reference, obese and prominently obese with TG:HDL≥1.9 had considerably increased HR around 1.7 for fatal/nonfatal CHD and 1.6 for CVD (p<0.001), while obese and prominently obese with TG:HDL<1.9 only had HR 1.2-1.3 for CHD and CVD (p0.003-<0.01). CONCLUSION: Obese T2D patients with high TG:HDL, associated with increased insulin resistance, had considerably increased risk of CHD and CVD.

Albuminuria and renal function as predictors of cardiovascular events and mortality in a general population of patients with type 2 diabetes: a nationwide observational study from the Swedish National Diabetes Register.

OBJECTIVE: Reduced renal function and albuminuria predict cardiovascular (CV) events and mortality in type 2 diabetes (T2D). In addition, we evaluated the role of co-existing congestive heart failure (CHF) and other CV risk factors on CV events in a large observational population-based cohort of T2D patients. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We included 66,065 patients with T2D who were reported to the National Diabetes Register (NDR) in Sweden between 2003-2006 with a follow-up of 5.7 years. Data on outcomes were collected from the cause of death and hospital discharge registers. RESULTS: A total of 10% of patients experienced a CV event and 3.7% of these were fatal. Increasing levels of albuminuria and renal impairment were independently associated with increasing risk of CV events and all-cause mortality also when adjusting for CHF. In normoalbuminuric patients, a reduction in renal function is an important predictor of CV events and all-cause mortality. Glycaemic control (high HbA1c), smoking and hyperlipidaemia had important effects on risk for CV events in patients with albuminuria, while high blood pressure, but not glycaemic control, had an effect in patients with normoalbuminuric renal impairment. CONCLUSION: Albuminuria and renal impairment are independent risk factors for CV outcomes and mortality in T2D, albuminuria being the strongest risk factor and relevant at all levels of renal function. In normoalbuminuric patients, a reduction in renal function is an important predictor of CV events and all-cause mortality.

Aspirin treatment and risk of first incident cardiovascular diseases in patients with type 2 diabetes: an observational study from the Swedish National Diabetes Register.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the benefits and risks associated with aspirin treatment in patients with type 2 diabetes and no previous cardiovascular disease (CVD) in clinical practice. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study between 2005 and 2009, mean follow-up 3.9 years. SETTING: Hospital outpatient clinics and primary care in Sweden. PARTICIPANTS: Men and women with type 2 diabetes, free from CVD, including atrial fibrillation and congestive heart failure, at baseline, registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Register, with continuous low-dose aspirin treatment (n=4608) or no aspirin treatment (n=14 038). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Risks of CVD, coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, mortality and bleedings, associated with aspirin compared with no aspirin, were analysed in all patients and in subgroups by gender and estimated cardiovascular risk. Propensity scores were used to adjust for several baseline risk factors and characteristics at Cox regression, and the effect of unknown covariates was evaluated in a sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: There was no association between aspirin use and beneficial effects on risks of CVD or death. Rather, there was an increased risk of non-fatal/fatal CHD associated with aspirin; HR 1.19 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.41), p=0.04. The increased risk of cardiovascular outcomes associated with aspirin was seen when analysing women separately; HR 1.41 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.87), p=0.02, and HR 1.28 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.61), p=0.04, for CHD and CVD, respectively, but not for men separately. There was a trend towards increased risk of a composite of bleedings associated with aspirin, n=157; HR 1.41 (95% CI 0.99 to 1.99). CONCLUSIONS: The results support the trend towards more restrictive use of aspirin in patients with type 2 diabetes and no previous CVD. More research is needed to explore the differences in aspirin's effects in women and men.

Blood pressure and risk of cardiovascular diseases in type 2 diabetes: further findings from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR-BP II).

OBJECTIVES: Estimate risks of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke and cardiovascular disease (CVD) with updated mean systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure in an observational study of patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Thirty-five thousand and forty-one patients treated with antihypertensive drugs, and 18 512 untreated patients, aged 30-75 years, without previous heart failure, followed for 6 years until 2009. RESULTS: In treated patients, nonlinear splines for 6-year risk of fatal/nonfatal CHD, stroke and CVD by BP as a continuous variable showed a progressive increase with higher SBP from 140  mmHg and higher, and with DBP from 80  mmHg, with a J-shaped risk curve at lowest SBP levels, but not obviously at lowest DBP levels. Analysing intervals of SBP with 130-134  mmHg as reference at Cox regression, adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for fatal/nonfatal CHD, stroke and CVD with at least 140  mmHg were 1.22 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08-1.39], 1.43 (1.18-1.72), 1.26 (1.13-1.41), all P < 0.001. HR with 115-129 and 135-139  mmHg were nonsignificant, whereas increased with 100-114  mmHg, 1.96 (P < 0.001), 1.75 (P = 0.02), 2.08 (P < 0.001), respectively. With DBP 75-79  mmHg as reference, adjusted HR for fatal/nonfatal CHD, stroke and CVD with DBP 80-84  mmHg were 1.42 (1.26-1.59), 1.46 (1.24-1.72), 1.39 (1.26-1.53), all P < 0.001. Corresponding HR with DBP at least 85  mmHg were 1.70 (1.50-1.92), 2.35 (1.99-2.77), 1.87 (1.69-2.07), all P < 0.001. Corresponding HR with DBP 60-69 and 70-74  mmHg were nonsignificant. The picture was similar in 7059 patients with previous CVD and in untreated patients. CONCLUSION: BP around 130-135/75-79  mmHg showed lower risks of cardiovascular diseases in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Effectiveness and safety of metformin in 51 675 patients with type 2 diabetes and different levels of renal function: a cohort study from the Swedish National Diabetes Register.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness and safety of metformin use in clinical practice in a large sample of pharmacologically treated patients with type 2 diabetes and different levels of renal function. DESIGN: Observational study between July 2004 and December 2010, mean follow-up 3.9 years. SETTING: Hospital outpatient clinics and primary care in Sweden. PARTICIPANTS: 51 675 men and women with type 2 diabetes, registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Register, and on continuous glucose-lowering treatment with oral hypoglycaemic agents (OHAs) or insulin. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD), all-cause mortality and acidosis/serious infection, associated with each treatment regimens, were analysed in all patients and in subgroups with different estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) intervals. Covariance adjustment and propensity scores were used to adjust for several baseline risk factors and characteristics at Cox regression. RESULTS: Compared with metformin in monotherapy, HRs for fatal/non-fatal CVD and all-cause mortality with all other OHAs combined (approximately 80% sulphonylureas) in monotherapy were 1.02 (95% CI 0.93 to 1.12) and 1.13 (1.01 to 1.27), while 1.18 (1.07 to 1.29) and 1.34 (1.19 to 1.50) with insulin in monotherapy, adjusting using propensity scores. Metformin, compared with any other treatment, showed reduced risks of acidosis/serious infection (adjusted HR 0.85, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.97) and all-cause mortality (HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.77 to 0.99), in patients with eGFR 45-60 ml/min/1.73 m(2), and no increased risks of all-cause mortality, acidosis/serious infection or CVD were found in patients with eGFR 30-45 ml/min/1.73 m(2). CONCLUSIONS: Metformin showed lower risk than insulin for CVD and all-cause mortality and slightly lower risk for all-cause mortality compared with other OHA, in these 51 675 patients followed for 4 years. Patients with renal impairment showed no increased risk of CVD, all-cause mortality or acidosis/serious infection. In clinical practice, the benefits of metformin use clearly outbalance the risk of severe side effects.

HbA1C and cancer risk in patients with type 2 diabetes--a nationwide population-based prospective cohort study in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes is associated with increased cancer risk. The underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Hyperglycemia might be one risk factor. HbA1c is an indicator of the blood glucose level over the latest 1 to 3 months. This study aimed to investigate association between HbA1c level and cancer risks in patients with type 2 diabetes based on real life situations. METHODS: This is a cohort study on 25,476 patients with type 2 diabetes registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Register from 1997-1999 and followed until 2009. Follow-up for cancer was accomplished through register linkage. We calculated incidences of and hazard ratios (HR) for cancer in groups categorized by HbA1c ≤ 58 mmol/mol (7.5%) versus >58 mmol/mol, by quartiles of HbA1c, and by HbA1c continuously at Cox regression, with covariance adjustment for age, sex, diabetes duration, smoking and insulin treatment, or adjusting with a propensity score. RESULTS: Comparing HbA1c >58 mmol/mol with ≤ 58 mmol/mol, adjusted HR for all cancer was 1.02 [95% CI 0.95-1.10] using baseline HbA1c, and 1.04 [95% CI 0.97-1.12] using updated mean HbA1c, and HRs were all non-significant for specific cancers of gastrointestinal, kidney and urinary organs, respiratory organs, female genital organs, breast or prostate. Similarly, no increased risks of all cancer or the specific types of cancer were found with higher quartiles of baseline or updated mean HbA1c, compared to the lowest quartile. HR for all cancer was 1.01 [0.98-1.04] per 1%-unit increase in HbA1c used as a continuous variable, with non-significant HRs also for the specific types of cancer per unit increase in HbA1c. CONCLUSIONS: In this study there were no associations between HbA1c and risks for all cancers or specific types of cancer in patients with type 2 diabetes.

A new model for 5-year risk of cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetes, from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR).

AIM: We assessed the association between risk factors and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in an observational study of type 2 diabetes patients from the Swedish National Diabetes Register. METHODS: A derivation sample of 24,288 patients, aged 30-74 years, 15.3% with previous CVD, baseline 2002, 2488 CVD events when followed for 5 years until 2007. A separate validation data set of 4906 patients, baseline 2003, 522 CVD events when followed for 4 years. RESULTS: Adjusted hazard ratios at Cox regression for fatal/nonfatal CVD were: onset-age 1.59, diabetes duration 1.55, total-cholesterol-to-HDL-cholesterol ratio 1.20, HbA1c 1.12, systolic BP 1.09, BMI 1.07 (1 SD increase in natural log continuous variables); males 1.41, smoker 1.35, microalbuminuria 1.27, macroalbuminuria 1.53, atrial fibrillation 1.50, previous CVD 1.98 (all p<0.001 except BMI p=0.0018). All 12 variables were used to elaborate an equation for 5-year CVD risk in the derivation dataset: mean 5-year risk 11.9±8.4%. Calibration in the validation dataset was adequate: ratio predicted 4-year risk/observed rate 0.97. Discrimination was sufficient: C statistic 0.72, sensitivity 51% and specificity 78% for top quartile. CONCLUSION: This CVD risk model from a large observational study of patients in routine care showed adequate calibration and discrimination, and can be useful for clinical practice.

Clinical usefulness of different lipid measures for prediction of coronary heart disease in type 2 diabetes: a report from the Swedish National Diabetes Register.

OBJECTIVE: We assessed the association between different blood lipid measures and risk of fatal/nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted an observational study of patients with type 2 diabetes from the Swedish National Diabetes Register. Baseline LDL cholesterol, non-HDL cholesterol, ratio of non-HDL to HDL cholesterol (non-HDL:HDL), and ratio of triacylglycerol to HDL cholesterol (TG:HDL) was measured in 18,673 patients aged 30-70 years, followed for a mean of 4.8 years from 2003 to 2007. RESULTS: Hazard ratios (HRs) for CHD per 1-SD increment in lipid measures were 1.23 with non-HDL:HDL, 1.20 with non-HDL cholesterol, 1.17 with LDL cholesterol, and 1.15 with TG:HDL (all P < 0.001 when adjusted for clinical characteristics and nonlipid risk factors). The best global model fit was found with non-HDL:HDL. When patients within the lowest tertile of a lipid measure were compared with those with all lipid measures within the highest tertile, the adjusted HR for CHD was 0.62 with non-HDL:HDL <3.5 mmol/L, 0.65 with non-HDL cholesterol <3.3 mmol/L, and 0.70 with LDL cholesterol <2.5 mmol/L (all P < 0.001). The lowest tertile of LDL and non-HDL cholesterol corresponded with treatment targets according to U.S. and European guidelines. HRs for CHD were 0.52, 0.62, and 0.66 with the lowest deciles of non-HDL:HDL, non-HDL cholesterol, and LDL cholesterol ≤1.8 mmol/L (all P < 0.001). Mean TG:HDL was considerably lower in patients within the lowest tertile of non-HDL:HDL, 0.82 ± 0.47, than in those within the lowest tertile of LDL cholesterol (<2.5 mmol/L), 1.49 ± 1.03. CONCLUSIONS: Non-HDL:HDL had a stronger effect on CHD risk than LDL cholesterol, and low TG:HDL values were more often seen within the lowest non-HDL:HDL tertile than within the lowest LDL cholesterol tertile. LDL cholesterol was not the best predictor of CHD risk in type 2 diabetes.

Trends in blood pressure control in patients with type 2 diabetes: data from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR).

We assessed blood pressure (BP) trends in patients with type 2 diabetes from a national diabetes register using three cross-sectional samples (aged 30?85 years) in 2005, 2007 and 2009, and in patients from 2005 followed individually until 2009. The prevalence of hypertension was 87% among all 180 369 patients in 2009, although lower in subgroups with ages 30?39, 40?49 and 50?59 years: 40%, 60% and 77%. In the three cross-sectional surveys, mean BP decreased (141/77?136/76 mmHg), uncontrolled BP? 140/90 mmHg decreased (58?46%), and antihypertensive drug treatment (AHT) increased (73?81%). Comparatively in 79 185 patients followed individually for 5 years, mean BP decreased (141/77?137/75 mmHg), uncontrolled BP ?140/90 mmHg decreased (58?47%) and AHT increased (73?82%). Independent predictors of BP decrease were BMI decrease (stronger) and increase in AHT. AHT occurred among 81% of all patients in 2009. In 57 645 patients on AHT followed individually, mean BP decreased (143/77?138/75 mmHg) and uncontrolled BP ?140/90 mmHg decreased (63?50%). Among 5164 patients with nephropathy on AHT followed individually, BP <130/80 mmHg increased (12?21%). In conclusion, BP control improved from 2005 to 2009, relative to BMI decrease and AHT increase, although still about half had BP ?140/90 mmHg.