Fracture risk assessment in the presence of competing risk of death.

PURPOSE: To identify the optimal statistical approach for predicting the risk of fragility fractures in the presence of competing event of death. METHODS: We used real-world data from the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study that has monitored 3035 elderly participants for bone health and mortality. Fragility fractures were ascertained radiologically. Mortality was confirmed by the State Registry. We considered four statistical models for predicting fracture risk: (i) conventional Cox's proportional hazard model, (ii) cause-specific model, (iii) Fine-Gray sub-distribution model, and (iv) multistate model. These models were fitted and validated in the development (60% of the original sample) and validation (40%) subsets, respectively. The model performance was assessed by discrimination and calibration analyses. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 11.3 years (IQR: 7.2, 16.2), 628 individuals (34.5%) in the development cohort fractured, and 630 (34.6%) died without a fracture. Neither the discrimination nor the 5-year prediction performance was significantly different among the models, though the conventional model tended to overestimate fracture risk (calibration-in-the-large index = - 0.24; 95% CI: - 0.43, - 0.06). For 10-year risk prediction, the multistate model (calibration-in-the-large index = - 0.05; 95% CI: - 0.20, 0.10) outperformed the cause-specific (- 0.23; - 0.30, - 0.08), Fine-Gray (- 0.31; - 0.46, - 0.16), and conventional model (- 0.54; - 0.70, - 0.39) which significantly overestimated fracture risk. CONCLUSION: Adjustment for competing risk of death has minimum impact on the short-term prediction of fracture. However, the multistate model yields the most accurate prediction of long-term fracture risk and should be considered for predictive research in the elderly, who are also at high mortality risk. Fracture risk assessment might be compromised by the competing event of death. This study, using real-world data found a multistate model was superior to the current competing risk methods in fracture risk assessment. A multistate model is considered an optimal statistical method for predictive research in the elderly.

Sex-differential testosterone response to long-term weight loss.

OBJECTIVES: Obesity-associated gonadal dysfunction is a common comorbidity in patients seeking weight loss interventions. We examined the incremental effect of weight loss on gonadal axes in men and women over 3 years. Changes in sex hormones were compared between dietary intervention (Diet) and bariatric procedures: Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB), sleeve gastrectomy (SG) and laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding (LAGB). Additional analysis assessed changes in corticotropic, somatotropic and thyroid axes after weight loss interventions. METHODS: This prospective, observational study included 61 adults with Body Mass Index >30 kg/m2, mean age 51 (SD = 11) years. Endocrine parameters were measured at baseline and at 6 timepoints over 36-months. RESULTS: For each 1 kg of weight lost, between baseline and 36 months, total testosterone increased by 0.6% (95% CI: 0.2%, 1.0%, p = 0.002) in males and decreased by 0.8% (95% CI: -1.4%, -0.3%, p = 0.003) in females. These changes remained statistically significant when controlled for age and for menopausal status in females. At 36 months, in comparison with Diet, RYGB women had lower total testosterone by 54% (95% CI: -90%, -17%, p = 0.004), reduced free androgen index (FAI) by 65% (95% CI; -114%, -17%, p = 0.009) while SG had reduced FAI by 39% (95% CI; -77%, 0%, p = 0.05). No such differences between groups were noted for male subjects. Adrenocorticotropic hormone declined by 0.3% (95% CI: 0.0, -0.5%, p = 0.05), insulin-like growth factor-1 increased by 0.4% (95% CI; 0.2%, 0.7%, p = 0.005), without such thyrotrophin change for each 1 kg of weight loss, for entire cohort, over 36 months. CONCLUSIONS: The testosterone changes observed in this study were proportional to the amount of weight loss. In females, reduction in androgens was independent of age and menopausal status and more pronounced after bariatric procedures. This study finding warrants further clinical research to explore an impact of androgen reduction on functional and cognitive status in postmenopausal women. The observed changes in pituitary hormones may contribute to the metabolic benefits of bariatric surgery.

Multimorbidity clusters potentially superior to individual diseases for stratifying fracture risk in older people: a nationwide cohort study.

RATIONALE: Comorbidities are common in fracture patients, but the interaction between fracture and comorbidities remains unclear. This study aimed to define specific multimorbidity clusters in older adults and quantify the association between the multimorbidity clusters and fracture risk. METHODS: This nationwide cohort study includes 1.7 million adults in Denmark aged ≥50 years who were followed from 2001 through 2014 for an incident low-trauma fracture. Chronic diseases and fractures were identified from the Danish National Hospital Discharge Register. Latent class analysis and Cox's regression were conducted to define the clusters and quantify fracture risk, respectively. RESULTS: The study included 793 815 men (age: 64 ± 10) and 873 524 women (65.5 ± 11), with a third having ≥1 chronic disease. The pre-existent chronic diseases grouped individuals into low-multimorbidity (80.3% in men, 83.6% in women), cardiovascular (12.5%, 10.6%), malignant (4.1%, 3.8%), diabetic (2.4%, 2.0%) and hepatic clusters (0.7%, men only). These clusters distinguished individuals with advanced, complex, or late-stage disease from those having earlier-stage disease. During a median follow-up of 14 years (IQR: 6.5, 14), 95 372 men and 212 498 women sustained an incident fracture. The presence of multimorbidity was associated with a significantly greater risk of fracture, independent of age and sex. Importantly, the multimorbidity clusters had the highest discriminative performance in assessing fracture risk, whereas the strength of their association with fracture risk equalled or exceeded that of both the individual chronic diseases most prevalent in each cluster and of counts-based comorbidity indices. CONCLUSIONS: Future fracture prevention strategies should take comorbidities into account. Multimorbidity clusters may provide greater insight into fracture risk than individual diseases or counts-based comorbidity indices.

Bone metabolism in diabetes: a clinician's guide to understanding the bone-glucose interplay.

Skeletal fragility is an increasingly recognised, but poorly understood, complication of both type 1 and type 2 diabetes. Fracture risk varies according to skeletal site and diabetes-related characteristics. Post-fracture outcomes, including mortality risk, are worse in those with diabetes, placing these people at significant risk. Each fracture therefore represents a sentinel event that warrants targeted management. However, diabetes is a very heterogeneous condition with complex interactions between multiple co-existing, and highly correlated, factors that preclude a clear assessment of the independent clinical markers and pathophysiological drivers for diabetic osteopathy. Additionally, fracture risk calculators and routinely used clinical bone measurements generally underestimate fracture risk in people with diabetes. In the absence of dedicated prospective studies including detailed bone and metabolic characteristics, optimal management centres around selecting treatments that minimise skeletal and metabolic harm. This review summarises the clinical landscape of diabetic osteopathy and outlines the interplay between metabolic and skeletal health. The underlying pathophysiology of skeletal fragility in diabetes and a rationale for considering a diabetes-based paradigm in assessing and managing diabetic bone disease will be discussed.

Health Perceptions, Multimorbidity, and New Fractures and Mortality Among Patients With a Fracture.

Importance: A high proportion of patients who sustain a fracture have multimorbidity. However, the association of multimorbidity with postfracture adverse outcomes, such as subsequent fractures and premature mortality, has not been widely explored. Objective: To examine the association of multimorbidity and self-rated health with subsequent fractures and mortality after fracture. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study included participants from New South Wales, Australia, in the Sax Institute's 45 and Up Study (n = 267 357). Participants were recruited from July 2005 to December 2009 and followed up from the date of the incident fracture until subsequent fracture, death, or the end of the study (April 2017), whichever occurred first, with questionnaire data linked to hospital admission and medication records. Data analysis was reported between March and September 2023. Exposures: Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) score and self-rated health (SRH). Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were subsequent fracture or mortality after an incident fracture. Associations between SRH measures and subsequent fracture and mortality were also assessed. All analyses were stratified by sex given the different fracture and mortality risk profiles of females and males. Results: Of 25 280 adults who sustained incident fractures, 16 191 (64%) were female (mean [SD] age, 74 [12] years) and 9089 (36%) were male (mean [SD] age, 74 [13] years). During a median follow-up time of 2.8 years (IQR, 1.1-5.2 years), 2540 females (16%) and 1135 males (12%) sustained a subsequent fracture and 2281 females (14%) and 2140 males (24%) died without a subsequent fracture. Compared with a CCI score of less than 2, those with a CCI score of 2 to 3 had an increased risk of subsequent fracture (females: hazard ratio [HR], 1.16 [95% CI, 1.05-1.27]; males: HR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.09-1.43]) and mortality (females: HR, 2.19 [95% CI, 1.99-2.40]; males: HR, 1.89 [95% CI, 1.71-2.09]). Those with a CCI score of 4 or greater had greater risks of subsequent fracture (females: HR, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.12-1.58]; males: HR, 1.48 [95% CI, 1.21-1.81]) and mortality (females: HR, 4.48 [95% CI, 3.97-5.06]; males: HR, 3.82 [95% CI 3.41-4.29]). Self-rated health was also significantly associated with subsequent fracture and mortality. Those reporting the poorest health and quality of life had the highest subsequent fracture risks, and their mortality risks were even higher. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, both CCI and SRH measures were associated with increased risk of subsequent fractures and mortality after fracture, underscoring the importance of managing the care of patients with comorbidities who sustain a fracture.

Temporal patterns of osteoclast formation and activity following withdrawal of RANKL inhibition.

Rebound bone loss following denosumab discontinuation is an important clinical challenge. Current treatment strategies to prevent this fail to suppress the rise and overshoot in osteoclast-mediated bone resorption. In this study, we use a murine model of denosumab treatment and discontinuation to show the temporal changes in osteoclast formation and activity during RANKL inhibition and withdrawal. We show that the cellular processes that drive the formation of osteoclasts and subsequent bone resorption following withdrawal of RANKL inhibition precede the rebound bone loss. Furthermore, a rise in serum TRAP and RANKL levels is detected before markers of bone turnover used in current clinical practice. These mechanistic advances may provide insight into a more defined window of opportunity to intervene with sequential therapy following denosumab discontinuation.

Stopping denosumab, a medication commonly used to improve bone mass by blocking formation of bone resorbing osteoclasts, leads to a rebound loss in the bone which was gained during treatment. Current strategies to prevent this bone loss fail in most cases as they are unable to prevent the rise and overshoot in bone resorption by osteoclasts. Thie stems from an incomplete understanding of how osteoclasts behave during denosumab treatment and after treatment is discontinued. We use a mouse model of this phenomenon to show how osteoclast formation and activity changes throughout this process. We show that increases in the processes that drive the formation of osteoclasts can be detected in the circulation before bone loss occurs. These findings could therefore provide insight into a targeted 'window of opportunity' to intervene and prevent the rebound bone loss following stopping denosumab in patients.

Association between Fat Mass and Obesity-Related Transcript Polymorphisms and Osteoporosis Phenotypes.

BACKGROUND: Common variants in the fat mass and obesity-related transcript (FTO) gene are related to body mass index and obesity, suggesting its potential association with bone mineral density (BMD) and fracture risk. This study sought to define the association between FTO gene variants and the following phenotypes: (1) BMD; (2) bone loss; and (3) fracture risk. METHODS: This analysis was based on the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study that included 1,277 postmenopausal women aged ≥60 years living in Dubbo, Australia. BMD at the femoral neck and lumbar spine was measured biennially by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (GE Lunar). Fractures were radiologically ascertained. Six single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; rs1421085, rs1558902, rs1121980, rs17817449, rs9939609, and rs9930506) of the FTO gene were genotyped using TaqMan assay. RESULTS: Women homozygous for the minor allele (GG) of rs9930506 had a significantly higher risk of hip fracture (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.93; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-3.23) than those homozygous for the major allele (AA) after adjusting for potential confounding effects. Similar associations were also observed for the minor allele of rs1121980. However, there was no significant association between the FTO SNPs and BMD or the rate of bone loss. CONCLUSIONS: Common variations in the FTO gene are associated with a hip fracture risk in women, and the association is not mediated through BMD or bone loss.

Teriparatide as Treatment for Severe Osteoporosis in Lung Transplant Recipients.

Osteoporosis and osteopenia are common in lung transplant (LTx) recipients, with a significantly increased incidence compared to other non-lung solid organ transplant patients. Despite high fracture rates, including in patients treated with antiresorptive medications, there are limited data on the use of anabolic treatments in LTx recipients. We present clinical, biochemical and bone mineral density data for 3 patients with severe osteoporosis treated with teriparatide 20 micrograms daily for 18 months post-LTx. Prednisone doses ranged between 5 and 10 mg daily throughout the treatment period. All patients had previously received zoledronate (last dose 12-24 months prior to teriparatide). Bone turnover was monitored repeatedly during treatment in one patient. Following completion of teriparatide, all patients received consolidation treatment with 4 mg zoledronate. Bone density was measured prior and within 6 to 12 months after completion of teriparatide. All 3 patients experienced an increase in bone density at the lumbar spine (median +12%; range, 2%-14%) and total proximal femur (median +8%, range, 8%-10%). No adverse effects were observed. Given that severe osteoporosis is highly prevalent in LTx patients, teriparatide should be further studied as a treatment in this clinical setting. Our cases suggest it is safe and effective.

A meta-analysis of previous falls and subsequent fracture risk in cohort studies.

The relationship between self-reported falls and fracture risk was estimated in an international meta-analysis of individual-level data from 46 prospective cohorts. Previous falls were associated with an increased fracture risk in women and men and should be considered as an additional risk factor in the FRAX® algorithm. INTRODUCTION: Previous falls are a well-documented risk factor for subsequent fracture but have not yet been incorporated into the FRAX algorithm. The aim of this study was to evaluate, in an international meta-analysis, the association between previous falls and subsequent fracture risk and its relation to sex, age, duration of follow-up, and bone mineral density (BMD). METHODS: The resource comprised 906,359 women and men (66.9% female) from 46 prospective cohorts. Previous falls were uniformly defined as any fall occurring during the previous year in 43 cohorts; the remaining three cohorts had a different question construct. The association between previous falls and fracture risk (any clinical fracture, osteoporotic fracture, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture) was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and each sex, followed by random-effects meta-analyses of the weighted beta coefficients. RESULTS: Falls in the past year were reported in 21.4% of individuals. During a follow-up of 9,102,207 person-years, 87,352 fractures occurred of which 19,509 were hip fractures. A previous fall was associated with a significantly increased risk of any clinical fracture both in women (hazard ratio (HR) 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33-1.51) and men (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.41-1.67). The HRs were of similar magnitude for osteoporotic, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture. Sex significantly modified the association between previous fall and fracture risk, with predictive values being higher in men than in women (e.g., for major osteoporotic fracture, HR 1.53 (95% CI 1.27-1.84) in men vs. HR 1.32 (95% CI 1.20-1.45) in women, P for interaction = 0.013). The HRs associated with previous falls decreased with age in women and with duration of follow-up in men and women for most fracture outcomes. There was no evidence of an interaction between falls and BMD for fracture risk. Subsequent risk for a major osteoporotic fracture increased with each additional previous fall in women and men. CONCLUSIONS: A previous self-reported fall confers an increased risk of fracture that is largely independent of BMD. Previous falls should be considered as an additional risk factor in future iterations of FRAX to improve fracture risk prediction.

Patient Self-Assessment of Walking Ability and Fracture Risk in Older Australian Adults.

Importance: The relationship between self-reported walking limitation, a proxy of muscle function, and fracture risk has not been investigated. Objective: To examine the association between a self-reported walking limitation of 1000 m or less and 5-year risk of fracture. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study compared individuals with various degrees of walking ability limitation at 1000 m (a little limitation and a lot of limitation) and those without limitation (no limitation) accounting for age, falls, prior fractures, and weight. Participants from the ongoing population-based Sax Institute 45 and Up Study were followed from recruitment (2005-2008) for 5 years (2010-2013). Data analysis was conducted from July 2020 to September 2023. Exposure: Self-reported walking limitation. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident fracture and site-specific fractures (hip, vertebral, and nonhip nonvertebral [NHNV] fractures). Results: Among the 266 912 participants enrolled in the 45 and Up Study, 238 969 were included, with 126 015 (53%) women (mean [SD] age, 63 [11] years) and 112 954 (47%) men (mean [SD] age, 61 [11] years). Approximately 20% reported a degree of limitation in walking 1000 m or less at baseline (39 324 women [24%]; 23 191 men [21%]). During a mean (SD) follow-up of 4.1 (0.8) years, 7190 women and 4267 men experienced an incident fracture. Compared with participants who reported no walking limitations, a little limitation and a lot of limitation were associated with higher risk of fracture (a little limitation among women: hazard ratio [HR], 1.32; 95% CI, 1.23-1.41; a little limitation among men: HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.34-1.60; a lot of limitation among women: HR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.49-1.71; a lot of limitation among men: HR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.86-2.22). Approximately 60% of fractures were attributable to walking limitation. The association was significant for hip, vertebral, and NHNV fracture and ranged between a 21% increase to a greater than 219% increase. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of 238 969 participants, self-reported walking limitations were associated with increased risk of fracture. These findings suggest that walking ability should be sought by clinicians to identify high-risk candidates for further assessment.

Establishing consensus recommendations for long-term osteoporosis care for patients who have attended an Australian fracture liaison service: a Delphi study.

Coordinating healthcare activities between fracture liaison services (FLS) and primary care is challenging. Using a Delphi technique, we developed 34 consensus statements to support improved care coordination across this healthcare transition. PURPOSE: Evidence supporting an optimal coordination strategy between fracture liaison services (FLS) and primary care is lacking. This study aimed to develop consensus statements to support consistency and benchmarking of clinical practice to improve coordination of care for patients transitioning from FLS to primary care following an osteoporotic fracture. METHODS: A Delphi technique was used to develop consensus among a panel of experts, including FLS clinicians (medical and non-medical), general practitioners (GPs), and consumers. RESULTS: Results of a preparatory questionnaire (n = 33) informed the development of 34 statements for review by expert panellists over two Delphi rounds (n = 25 and n = 19, respectively). The majority of participants were from New South Wales (82%), employed as FLS clinicians (78.8%) and working in metropolitan centres (60.6%). Consensus was achieved for 24/34 statements in round one and 8/10 statements in round two. All statements concerning patient education, communication, and the GP-patient relationship achieved consensus. Expert opinions diverged in some areas of clinician roles and responsibilities and long-term monitoring and management recommendations. CONCLUSION: We found clear consensus among experts in many key areas of FLS integration with primary care. While experts agreed that primary care is the most appropriate setting for long-term osteoporosis care, overall confidence in primary care systems to achieve this was low. The role of (and responsibility for) adherence monitoring in a resource-limited setting remains to be defined.

Denosumab and Mortality in a Real-World Setting: A Comparative Study.

Denosumab (Dmab) is increasingly prescribed worldwide. Unlike bisphosphonates (BPs), its effect on mortality has yet to be well explored. This study examined the association between Dmab and all-cause mortality compared with no treatment in subjects with a fracture and BPs in subjects without a fracture. The study population was from the Sax Institute's 45 and Up Study (n = 267,357), a prospective population-based cohort with questionnaire data linked to hospital admissions (Admitted Patients Data Collection [APDC] data were linked by the Centre for Health Record Linkage), medication records (Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme [PBS] provided by Services Australia), and stored securely (secure data access was provided through the Sax Institute's Secure Unified Research Environment [SURE]). The new-user cohort design with propensity-score (PS) matching was implemented. In the fracture cohort, Dmab and oral BP users were matched 1:2 to no treatment (Dmab: 617 women, 154 men; oral BPs: 615 women, 266 men). In the no-fracture cohort, Dmab users were matched 1:1 with oral BPs and zoledronic acid (Zol) users (Dmab:oral BPs: 479 men, 1534 women; Dmab:Zol: 280 men, 625 women). Mortality risk was measured using sex-specific pairwise multivariable Cox models. In the fracture cohort, compared with no treatment, Dmab was associated with 48% lower mortality in women (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.36-0.72) but not in men. Oral BPs were associated with 44% lower mortality in both sexes (women HR = 0.56, 95% CI 0.42-0.77; men HR = 0.56, 95% CI 0.40-0.78). In the no-fracture cohort, compared with BPs, Dmab was associated with 1.5- to 2.5-fold higher mortality than oral BPs (women HR = 1.49, 95% CI 1.13-1.98; men HR = 2.74; 95% CI 1.82-4.11) but similar mortality to Zol. Dmab in women and oral BPs were associated with lower post-fracture mortality than no treatment. However, Dmab users had generally higher mortality than oral BP users in those without fractures. © 2023 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Associations of Type 2 Diabetes, Body Composition, and Insulin Resistance with Bone Parameters: The Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study.

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) may be associated with increased risk of fractures, despite preserved bone mineral density (BMD). Obesity and insulin resistance (IR) may have separate effects on bone turnover and bone strength, which contribute to skeletal fragility. We characterized and assessed the relative associations of obesity, body composition, IR, and T2D on bone turnover markers (BTMs), BMD, and advanced hip analysis (AHA). In this cross-sectional analysis of Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study, 525 (61.3% women) participants were grouped according to T2D, IR (homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance [HOMA-IR]

Prevention of Hip Fractures: Trade-off between Minor Benefits to Individuals and Large Benefits to the Community.

Goeffrey Rose postulated that a population-based measure bringing a small benefit to each individual can yield large benefits to the community. We aimed to test this axiom by quantifying the relationship between change in bone mineral density (BMD) and hip fracture incidence between two prospective cohorts separated by ~10 years. In this prospective population-based Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study (DOES), the participants aged 60+ were recruited in two waves: the initial cohort (1311 women, 842 men) in 1989 to 1992 and the second cohort (974 women, 544 men) in 1999 to 2001. The incident hip fracture was radiologically ascertained. Femoral neck BMD was measured biannually. Multivariable-adjusted Cox's proportional hazards models were adjusted for the predefined covariates such as age, BMI, lifestyle factors, falls, and prior fracture. Compared with the initial cohort, the second cohort had a higher femoral neck BMD by ~0.04 g/cm2 in women and 0.03 g/cm2 in men. However, the prevalence of osteoporosis in the second cohort was halved (prevalence ratio 0.51, 95% CI 0.36 to 0.73 in women; 0.45, 0.24 to 0.84 in men), and its hip fracture incidence was significantly reduced (hazard ratio 0.54, 95% CI, 0.38 to 0.78 in women; 0.39, 0.19 to 0.80 in men). Sensitivity analyses indicated that the "effect" was unlikely due to unmeasured confounders. These findings suggest that a population-wide strategy aimed at enhancing BMD across the entire population could lead to a substantial decrease in the incidence of hip fractures. © 2023 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Mortality, falls and slow walking speed are predicted by different muscle strength and physical performance measures in women and men.

BACKGROUND: Different measures of muscle strength, physical performance and body size/composition are used in various sarcopenia definitions. This study investigated which baseline measures best predict incident mortality and falls, and prevalent slow walking speed in older women and men. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data for 899 women (mean age±standard deviation, 68.7 ± 4.3 years) and 497 men (69.4 ± 3.9 years) from the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study 2, comprising sixty variables for muscle strength (quadriceps strength), physical performance (walking speed, timed up and go (TUG) test, sit to stand (STS) test), body size (weight, height, body mass index) and body composition (lean mass, body fat) were included. Sex-stratified Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analyses calculated baseline variable accuracy for predicting incident mortality and falls, and prevalent slow walking speed (<0.8 m/s). RESULTS: Over 14.5 years, 103/899 (11.5%) women and 96/497 (19.3%) men died, 345/899 (38.4%) women and 172/497 (34.6%) men had ≥1 fall, and 304/860 (35.3%) women and 172/461 (31.7%) had baseline slow walking speed (<0.8 m/s). CART models identified age and walking speed adjusted for height as the most important predictors for mortality in women, and quadriceps strength (with adjustments) as the most important predictor for mortality in men. In both sexes, STS (with adjustments) was the most important predictor for incident falls, and TUG test was the most important predictor for prevalent slow walking speed. Body composition measures were not important predictors for any outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Muscle strength and physical performance variables and cut points predict falls and mortality differently in women and men, suggesting targeted sex-specific application of selected measures may improve outcome prediction in older adults.

'Skeletal Age' for mapping the impact of fracture on mortality.

Background: Fragility fracture is associated with an increased risk of mortality, but mortality is not part of doctor-patient communication. Here, we introduce a new concept called 'Skeletal Age' as the age of an individual's skeleton resulting from a fragility fracture to convey the combined risk of fracture and fracture-associated mortality for an individual. Methods: We used the Danish National Hospital Discharge Register which includes the whole-country data of 1,667,339 adults in Denmark born on or before January 1, 1950, who were followed up to December 31, 2016 for incident low-trauma fracture and mortality. Skeletal age is defined as the sum of chronological age and the number of years of life lost (YLL) associated with a fracture. Cox's proportional hazards model was employed to determine the hazard of mortality associated with a specific fracture for a given risk profile, and the hazard was then transformed into YLL using the Gompertz law of mortality. Results: During the median follow-up period of 16 years, there had been 307,870 fractures and 122,744 post-fracture deaths. A fracture was associated with between 1 and 7 years of life lost, with the loss being greater in men than women. Hip fractures incurred the greatest loss of life years. For instance, a 60-year-old individual with a hip fracture is estimated to have a skeletal age of 66 for men and 65 for women. Skeletal Age was estimated for each age and fracture site stratified by gender. Conclusions: We propose 'Skeletal Age' as a new metric to assess the impact of a fragility fracture on an individual's life expectancy. This approach will enhance doctor-patient risk communication about the risks associated with osteoporosis. Funding: National Health and Medical Research Council in Australia and Amgen Competitive Grant Program 2019.

Osteoporosis is a 'silent disease' which often has no immediate symptoms but gradually weakens bones and makes them more likely to break. A bone fracture caused by osteoporosis in people over the age of 50 is linked to long-term health decline and in some cases, even early death. However, poor communication of the mortality risk to patients has led to a low uptake of treatment, resulting in a crisis of osteoporosis management. The impact of a fracture on life expectancy is typically conveyed to patients and the public in terms of probability (how likely something is to occur) or the relative risk of death compared to other groups. However, statements such as "Your risk of death over the next 10 years is 5% if you have suffered from a bone fracture" can be difficult to comprehend and can lead to patients underestimating the gravity of the risk. With the aim of devising a new way of conveying risks to patients, Tran et al. analyzed the relationship between fracture and lifespan in over 1.6 million individuals who were 50 years of age or older. The findings showed that one fracture was associated with losing up to 7 years of life, depending on gender, age and fracture site. Based on this finding, Tran et al. proposed the idea of 'skeletal age' as a new metric for quantifying the impact of a fracture on life expectancy. Skeletal age is the sum of the chronological age of a patient and the estimated number of years of life lost following a fracture. For example, a 60-year-old man with a hip fracture is predicted to lose an estimated 6 years of life, resulting in a skeletal age of around 66. Therefore, this individual has the same life expectancy as a 66-year-old person that has not experienced a fracture. Skeletal age can also be used to quantify the benefit of osteoporosis treatments. Some approved treatments substantially reduce the likelihood of post-fracture death and translating this into skeletal age could help communicate this to patients. For instance, telling patients that "This treatment will reduce your skeletal age by 2 years" is easier to understand than "This treatment will reduce your risk of death by 25%". Given the current crisis of osteoporosis management, adopting skeletal age as a new measure of how the skeleton declines after a fracture could enhance doctor-patient communication regarding treatment options and fracture risk assessment. Tran et al. are now developing an online tool called 'BONEcheck.org' to enable health care professionals and the public to calculate skeletal age. Future work should investigate the effectiveness of this new metric in conveying risk to patients, compared with current methods.

Genetic Prediction of Lifetime Risk of Fracture.

CONTEXT: Fragility fracture is a significant public health problem because it is associated with increased mortality. We want to find out whether the risk of fracture can be predicted from the time of birth. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between a polygenic risk score (PRS) and lifetime fracture risk. METHODS: This population-based prospective study involved 3515 community-dwelling individuals aged 60+ years who have been followed for up to 20 years. Femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) was measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. A PRS was created by summing the weighted number of risk alleles for each single nucleotide polymorphism using BMD-associated coefficients. Fragility fractures were radiologically ascertained, whereas mortality was ascertained through a state registry. Residual lifetime risk of fracture (RLRF) was estimated by survival analysis. RESULTS: The mortality-adjusted RLRF for women and men was 36% (95% CI, 34%-39%) and 21% (18%-24%), respectively. Individuals with PRS > 4.24 (median) had a greater risk (1.2-fold in women and 1.1-fold in men) than the population average risk. For hip fracture, the average RLRF was 10% (95% CI, 8%-12%) for women and ∼5% (3%-7%) for men; however, the risk was significantly increased by 1.5-fold and 1.3-fold for women and men with high PRS, respectively. CONCLUSION: A genetic profiling of BMD-associated genetic variants is associated with the residual lifetime risk of fracture, suggesting the potential for incorporating the polygenic risk score in personalized fracture risk assessment.