Evaluation of selection strategies in dual-purpose and specialized breeding of indigenous chicken.

This study aimed to evaluate various selection strategies for adoption in dual-purpose (ICD), meat (ICM) and layer (ICL) breeding goals in indigenous chicken breeding programs. The ICM goal aimed to improve live weight (LW12), daily gain (ADG) and egg weight (EW12) or together with feed efficiency and antibody response. For the ICL goal, age at first egg (AFE) and egg number (EN12) or together with feed efficiency and antibody response were targeted. In the ICD goal, the objective was to improve LW12, ADG, AFE and EN12 or together with feed efficiency and antibody response. Highest total index responses of US$ 49.83, US$ 65.71, and US$ 37.90 were estimated in indices targeting only production traits in the ICD, ICM and ICL goals, respectively. Highest index accuracy estimates of 0.77 and 0.70 were observed in indices that considered production and feed-related traits in the ICD and ICL goals, respectively, while in the ICM goal, the highest estimate of 0.96 was observed in an index targeting only production traits. Inbreeding levels ranged from 0.60 to 1.14% across the various indices considered in the breeding goals. Targeting only production traits in the ICD, ICM and ICL goals required the least number of generations of selection of 7.46, 5.50, and 8.52, respectively, to achieve predefined gains. Generally, a strategy targeting only production traits in a goal was the most optimal but resulted to unfavorable correlated responses in feed efficiency and antibody response. Addition of feed efficiency or/and antibody response in a goal was, however, not attractive due to the decline in total index response and accuracy and increase in inbreeding levels and number of generations of selection. Considering the feed availability and disease challenges in the tropics, choice of including feed efficiency or/and antibody response in the ICD, ICM and ICL goals should depend on targeted production system, resource availability to support breeding activities and magnitude of correlated responses on these traits when not included in the goals.

Livestock phenomics and genetic evaluation approaches in Africa: current state and future perspectives.

The African livestock sector plays a key role in improving the livelihoods of people through the supply of food, improved nutrition and consequently health. However, its impact on the economy of the people and contribution to national GDP is highly variable and generally below its potential. This study was conducted to assess the current state of livestock phenomics and genetic evaluation methods being used across the continent, the main challenges, and to demonstrate the effects of various genetic models on the accuracy and rate of genetic gain that could be achieved. An online survey of livestock experts, academics, scientists, national focal points for animal genetic resources, policymakers, extension agents and animal breeding industry was conducted in 38 African countries. The results revealed 1) limited national livestock identification and data recording systems, 2) limited data on livestock production and health traits and genomic information, 3) mass selection was the common method used for genetic improvement with very limited application of genetic and genomic-based selection and evaluation, 4) limited human capacity, infrastructure, and funding for livestock genetic improvement programmes, as well as enabling animal breeding policies. A joint genetic evaluation of Holstein-Friesian using pooled data from Kenya and South Africa was piloted. The pilot analysis yielded higher accuracy of prediction of breeding values, pointing to possibility of higher genetic gains that could be achieved and demonstrating the potential power of multi-country evaluations: Kenya benefited on the 305-days milk yield and the age at first calving and South Africa on the age at first calving and the first calving interval. The findings from this study will help in developing harmonized protocols for animal identification, livestock data recording, and genetic evaluations (both national and across-countries) as well as in designing subsequent capacity building and training programmes for animal breeders and livestock farmers in Africa. National governments need to put in place enabling policies, the necessary infrastructure and funding for national and across country collaborations for a joint genetic evaluation which will revolutionize the livestock genetic improvement in Africa.

Potential for quantifying general environmental resilience of dairy cattle in sub-Saharan Africa using deviations in milk yield.

Introduction: Genetic improvement of general resilience of dairy cattle is deemed as a part of the solution to low dairy productivity and poor cattle adaptability in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). While indicators of general resilience have been proposed and evaluated in other regions, their applicability in SSA remains unexplored. This study sought to test the viability of utilizing log-transformed variance (LnVar), autocorrelation (rauto), and skewness (Skew) of deviations in milk yield as indicators of general resilience of dairy cows performing in the tropical environment of Kenya. Methods: Test-day milk yield records of 2,670 first-parity cows performing in three distinct agroecological zones of Kenya were used. To predict expected milk yield, quantile regression was used to model lactation curve for each cow. Subsequently, resilience indicators were defined based on actual and standardized deviations of observed milk yield from the expected milk yield. The genetic parameters of these indicators were estimated, and their associations with longevity and average test-day milk yield were examined. Results: All indicators were heritable except skewness of actual and standardized deviation. The log-transformed variance of actual (LnVar1) and standardized (LnVar2) deviations had the highest heritabilities of 0.19 ± 0.04 and 0.17 ± 0.04, respectively. Auto-correlation of actual (rauto1) and standardized (rauto2) deviations had heritabilities of 0.05 ± 0.03 and 0.07 ± 0.03, respectively. Weak to moderate genetic correlations were observed among resilience indicators. Both rauto and Skew indicators had negligible genetic correlations with both longevity and average test-day milk yield. LnVar1 and LnVar2 were genetically associated with better longevity (rg = -0.47 ± 0.26 and -0.49 ± 0.26, respectively). Whereas LnVar1 suggested that resilient animals produce lower average test-day milk yield, LnVar2 revealed a genetic association between resilience and higher average test-day milk yield. Discussion: Log transformed variance of deviations in milk yield holds a significant potential as a robust resilience indicator for dairy animals performing in SSA. Moreover, standardized as opposed to actual deviations should be employed in defining resilience indicators because the resultant indicator does not inaccurately infer that low-producing animals are inherently resilient. This study offers an opportunity for enhancing the productivity of dairy cattle performing in SSA through selective breeding for resilience to environmental stressors.

Assessment of Seasonal Variation in Methane Emissions of Mediterranean Buffaloes Using a Laser Methane Detector.

A direct assessment of the methane (CH4) emission level and its variability factors is needed in each animal species in order to target the best mitigation strategy for the livestock sector. Therefore, the present study aimed to (1) test a laser methane detector (LMD) for the first time in Italian Mediterranean buffaloes (IMB), a non-invasive tool to quantify CH4 emissions; (2) test the effect of season on the emissions; and (3) compare the results measured directly with the ones estimated with the existing equations. CH4 emissions of twenty non-productive IMB, under the same feeding regimen, were monitored for 12 days in summer and winter. Significantly higher THI (74.46 ± 1.88 vs. 49.62 ± 4.87; p < 0.001), lower DMI (2.24 ± 0.04 vs. 2.51 ± 0.03% DMI/kg live weight; p < 0.001) and lower emission intensities (0.61 ± 0.15 vs. 0.75 ± 0.13; p < 0.001) were found during the summer period when compared with winter. LMD was found to be a versatile tool to be used in buffaloes, and it was clear that a summer increase in THI could act as a stressor for the animals, influencing their emissions. In addition, measured emissions were significantly higher than when estimated with the existing equations (p < 0.001), suggesting the need for further research in this area.

From a documented past of the Jersey breed in Africa to a profit index linked future.

The paper reports on the prevalence and performance of the Jersey cattle breed in Africa, highlighting its geographic distribution and describing the reported performance and other related characteristics from the early 1900s to the present day. The review examines the contribution of Jersey cattle in increasing the volume and efficiency of milk production across the continent. Data relating to the Jersey cattle breed has been reported in more than 30 African countries based on available material published between 1964 and 2020. A key encompassing parameter of any reference was a well-described consideration of the Jersey cattle breed (as pure or crossbred with other exotic and/or indigenous breeds) with reported performance within a variety of production systems and agro-ecologies in Africa. The main focus was on breed and performance parameters, breed types, percentage of different breed types in specific environments, reproduction method and fertility; survival and longevity; disease incidence; and production efficiency metrics such as: feed efficiency (milk unit per dry matter intake, DMI) and milk yield (MY) per unit of body weight (BW). The main performance descriptors identified were based on observations on resilience under both abiotic (heat, nutrition) and biotic (incidences of pests and diseases) stressors, milk production, BW, nutrition and utilisation of feed resources. From the literature consulted, we grouped key dairy cattle performance characteristics reported in each country under the following areas to aid comparisons; a. Milk production (Milk nutrient value, daily MY, lifetime MY and annual MY); b. Fertility traits and AFC; c. Survival and longevity, d. Production efficiency (Feed efficiency, milk per unit BW and milk per unit DMI and e. Disease incidences. Results of the review showed that the smaller stature and lower maintenance nutrient requirements of the Jersey breed means that it is better suited to tolerate the tropical production conditions in the African small-scale dairy farming sector. Detailed analyses on MY and survival showed that Jersey crosses with exotic and African indigenous breeds performed better than purebred cattle with strong evidence to support the suitability of the Jersey breed in crossbreeding with indigenous breeds for use in smallholder production systems.

Measurement Duration but Not Distance, Angle, and Neighbour-Proximity Affects Precision in Enteric Methane Emissions when Using the Laser Methane Detector Technique in Lactating Dairy Cows.

The laser methane detector (LMD), is a proprietary hand-held open path laser measuring device. Its measurements are based on infrared absorption spectroscopy using a semiconductor laser as a collimated excitation source. In the current study, LMD measurements were carried out in two experiments using 20 and 71 lactating dairy cows in Spain and Scotland, respectively. The study aimed at testing four assumptions that may impact on the reliability and repeatability of the LMD measurements of ruminants. The study has verified that there is no difference in enteric methane measurements taken from a distance of 3 m than from those taken at a distance of 2 m; there was no effect to the measurements when the measurement angle was adjusted from 90° to 45°; that the presence of an adjacent animal had no effect on the methane measurements; and that measurements lasting up to 240 s are more precise than those taken for a shorter duration. The results indicate that angle, proximity to other animals, and distance had no effects and that measurements need to last a minimum of 240 s to maintain precision.

Genetic and phenotypic correlations among feed efficiency, immune and production traits in indigenous chicken of Kenya.

This study aimed at estimating genetic and phenotypic relationships among feed efficiency, immune and production traits measured pre- (9-20 weeks of age) and post- (12 weeks from on-set of lay) maturity. Production traits were average daily gain (ADG) and average daily feed-intake (ADFI1) in the pre-maturity period and age at first egg (AFE), average daily feed-intake (ADFI2) and average daily egg mass (EM) in the post-maturity period. Feed efficiency comprised of residual feed intake (RFI) estimated in both periods. Natural antibodies binding to keyhole limpet hemocyanin (KLH-IgM) and specific antibodies binding to Newcastle disease virus (NDV-IgG) measured at 16 and 28 weeks of age represented immune traits pre- and post-maturity, respectively. In the growing period, 1,820 records on ADG, KLH-IgM and NDV-IgG, and 1,559 records on ADFI1 and RFI were available for analyses. In the laying period, 1,340 records on AFE, EM, KLH-IgM and NDV-IgG, and 1,288 records on ADFI2 and RFI were used in the analyses. Bi-variate animal mixed model was fitted to estimate (co)variance components, heritability and correlations among the traits. The model constituted sex, population, generation, line and genotype as fixed effects, and animal and residual effects as random variables. During the growing period, moderate to high heritability (0.36-0.68) was estimated for the production traits and RFI while the antibody traits had low (0.10-0.22) heritability estimates. Post-maturity, the production traits and RFI were moderately (0.30-0.37) heritable while moderate to high (0.25-0.41) heritability was estimated for the antibody traits. Genetic correlations between feed efficiency and production traits in both periods showed that RFI had negative genetic correlations with ADG (-0.47) and EM (-0.56) but was positively correlated with ADFI1 (0.60), ADFI2 (0.74) and AFE (0.35). Among immune and production traits, KLH-IgM and NDV-IgG had negative genetic correlations with ADG (-0.22; -0.56), AFE (-0.39; -0.42) and EM (-0.35; -0.16) but were positively correlated with ADFI1 (0.41; 0.34) and ADFI2 (0.47; 0.52). Genetic correlations between RFI with KLH-IgM (0.62; 0.33) and NDV-IgG (0.58; 0.50) were positive in both production periods. Feed intake, RFI and antibody traits measured in both production periods were positively correlated with estimates ranging from 0.48 to 0.82. Results from this study indicate selection possibilities to improve production, feed efficiency and immune-competence in indigenous chicken. The genetic correlations suggest that improved feed efficiency would be associated with high growth rates, early maturing chicken, high egg mass and reduced feed intake. In contrast, improved general (KLH-IgM) and specific (NDV-IgG) immunity would result in lower growth rates and egg mass but associated with early sexual maturation and high feed intake. Unfavorable genetic correlations between feed efficiency and immune traits imply that chicken of higher productivity and antibody levels will consume more feed to support both functions. These associations indicate that selective breeding for feed efficiency and immune-competence may have genetic consequences on production traits and should therefore be accounted for in indigenous chicken improvement programs.

Breeding strategies for improving smallholder dairy cattle productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Breeding strategies for smallholder dairy farming systems in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) were simulated and evaluated considering cow traits identified as priorities by farmers in different agro-ecological zones. These traits were related to cow milk yield, fertility, temperament, feed intake and disease resistance. The first breeding strategy was based on continuous importation of genetically superior exotic dairy sire semen to SSA and crossing with local females leading to a gradual upgrade of the indigenous population. The second strategy assumed that semen from elite exotic bulls would be imported to SSA and used on indigenous cows to produce F1 animals. Thereafter, elite animals would be selected from within the F1 and each subsequent generation to establish a new synthetic breed. The third strategy was to improve the indigenous population by genetically selecting the best sires available domestically. Results showed positive genetic progress for all breeding goal traits. After 15 generations of selection, the genetic response of the importation strategy exceeded the corresponding genetic response of the synthetic breed strategy by 20%-60%. The former also exceeded the genetic response of the indigenous breed improvement strategy by 43%-75%. Potentially there is an opportunity for breeders to choose an appropriate breeding strategy that fits a specific need of smallholder dairy farmers.

Heterosis in cattle crossbreeding schemes in tropical regions: meta-analysis of effects of breed combination, trait type, and climate on level of heterosis.

The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of animal trait, breed combination, and climate on the expressed levels of heterosis in crossbreeding schemes using tropical cattle. A meta-analysis of 42 studies was carried out with 518 heterosis estimates. In total, 62.5% of estimates were found to be significantly different from zero, the majority of which (89.8%) were beneficial for the studied trait. Trait and breed combination were shown to have a significant effect on the size of heterosis (P < 0.001 and P = 0.044, respectively). However, climate did not have a significant effect. Health, longevity, and milk production traits showed the highest heterosis (31.84 ± 10.73%, 35.13 ± 14.35%, and 35.15 ± 3.29%, respectively), whereas fertility, growth, and maternal traits showed moderate heterosis (12.02 ± 4.10%, 12.25 ± 2.69%, and 15.69 ± 3.26%, respectively). Crosses between breeds from different types showed moderate to high heterosis ranging from 9.95 ± 4.53% to 19.53 ± 3.62%, whereas crosses between breeds from the same type did not express heterosis that was significantly different from zero. These results show that heterosis has significant and favorable impact on productivity of cattle farming in tropical production systems, particularly in terms of fitness but also milk production traits.

Use of High Density Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) Arrays to Assess Genetic Diversity and Population Structure of Dairy Cattle in Smallholder Dairy Systems: The Case of Girinka Programme in Rwanda.

In most smallholder dairy programmes, farmers are not fully benefitting from the genetic potential of their dairy cows. This is in part due to the mismatch between the available genotypes and the environment, including management, in which the animals perform. With sparse performance and pedigree records in smallholder dairy farms, the true degree of baseline genetic variability and breed composition is not known and hence rendering any genetic improvement initiative difficult to implement. Using the Girinka programme of Rwanda as an exemplar, the current study was aimed at better understanding the genetic diversity and population structure of dairy cattle in the smallholder dairy farm set up. Further, the association between farmer self-reported cow genotypes and genetically determined genotypes was investigated. The average heterozygosity estimates were highest (0.38 ± 0.13) for Rwandan dairy cattle and lowest for Gir and N'Dama (0.18 ± 0.19 and 0.25 ± 0.20, respectively). Systematic characterization of the genetic variation and diversity available may inform the formulation of sustainable improvement strategies such as targeting and matching the genotype of cows to productivity goals and farmer profile and hence reducing the negative impact of genotype by environment interaction.

Robustness and sensitivity of a blueprint for on-farm estimation of dairy cow energy balance.

Excessive negative energy balance (EB) has been associated with decreased reproductive performance and increased risk of lameness and metabolic diseases. On-farm, automated EB estimates for individual cows would enable dairy farmers to detect excessive negative EB early and act to minimize its extent and duration by altering feeding. Previously, we have shown that EB can be estimated from frequent measurements of body weight (BW) and body condition score (BCS) changes, referred to as EBbody. In this study, we investigated the robustness and sensitivity of the EBbody method to assess its genericity and on-farm applicability. We used 5 data sets with BW of lactating cows (name of data set in parenthesis): 65 Holstein cows in a French feeding trial (INRA); 6 Holstein cows in a British feeding trial (Friggens); 31 Holstein cows and 17 Jersey cows in a Danish feeding trial (DCRC); 140 Holstein cows in a British feeding trial (Scotland's Rural College, SRUC); and 1,592 Holstein cows on 9 Danish farms with milking robots (automatic milking system). We used the INRA and Friggens data sets to develop a dynamic formula to correct BW for increasing residual gut-fill (RGF) during early lactation. With the DCRC data, we tested the effect of smoothing parameters and weighing frequency on EBbody. Also, 2 robustness tests were performed using the SRUC data to test the effect of diet change on BW and the automatic milking system data to test the effect of farm on BW variation. Finally, we combined the results into a blueprint describing different ways to calculate EBbody depending on the purpose and on the availability of BCS. The dynamic RGF adjustment resulted in a lower empty BW during early lactation than that obtained with the previously used constant RGF. The double-exponential smoothing method used to correct for meal-related gut-fill was robust to choice of smoothing parameters. Cows should be weighed at least once every 4 d during early lactation to capture the duration of negative EBbody. Our EBbody method proved robust to diet changes. Finally, although cow BW varied significantly between farms, the quantile regression smoothing of BW did not bias the estimation of weight differences between herds. In conclusion, these results validate the applicability of the EBbody method to estimate EB across a range of farm conditions, and we provided a blueprint that enables the estimation of EBbody for individual cows on-farm using only frequent BW, in combination with BCS when available.

Risk, knowledge and preventive measures of smallholder dairy farmers in northern Malawi with regard to zoonotic brucellosis and bovine tuberculosis.

Milk production using local cattle breed-types is an age-old practice in Malawi. Although dairy farming is becoming more common as a result of the increasing population and demand for milk and milk products, there is limited knowledge of the farmers' awareness of zoonotic disease risks, their preventative practices and the disease burden in animals. This study determined dairy farmers' general knowledge of zoonoses, assessed their risks for infection with zoonotic bovine tuberculosis (bTB) and brucellosis, and evaluated farm practices to prevent disease transmission. A questionnaire was drawn up and administered by the authors. It was used to collect information about the knowledge and preventive practices of 140 out of 684 registered dairy farmers at Mzuzu Agricultural Development Division, northern Malawi. During a second visit to 60 out of the 140 farms, a total of 156 and 95 cattle were tested for brucellosis and tuberculosis, respectively. Most farmers (77.1%) knew or had heard of zoonotic diseases, whilst 75.0% correctly named at least one zoonotic disease. More survey participants named tuberculosis as a zoonotic disease compared to brucellosis (74.3% versus 2.9%). The most commonly named means of transmission were milk (67.0%) and meat (56.0%). Almost all survey participants (96.4%) practised at least one farm activity that could lead to potential transmission of brucellosis or bTB, including sale (67.0%) and consumption (34.0%) of unpasteurised milk. Antibodies against brucellosis were found in 12 cattle (7.7%), whilst one animal (1.1%) reacted to the tuberculin skin test. General knowledge about possible transmission of diseases between humans and animals was high, although most farmers practised risk behaviours that could potentially expose the public to milk-borne zoonotic diseases such as brucellosis and bTB. Furthermore, some animals had positive results for brucellosis and tuberculosis tests. Therefore, improvement of zoonotic disease prevention programmes, as well as further investigation into the prevalence and risk factors for zoonoses, is recommended.

Predisposing factors for involuntary culling in Holstein-Friesian dairy cows.

The objective was to identify predisposing factors for increased risk of involuntary culling in adult Holstein-Friesian dairy cows. Data were sourced from Scotland's Rural College (SRUC) Dairy Research Centre. Between September 2003 and August 2010 175 cows were culled, a herd culling rate of 33.7%. The major reasons for involuntary culling were fertility (27.4%) and udder problems (26.9%). In the analysis, the culled cows were matched with their cohorts that survived to a later lactation. To identify predisposing factors, a binary logistic model was applied. Cows with higher than average body condition score (BCS) at last service were five times [Odds Ratio (OR) = 4.8] more likely to be culled due to infertility. Cows with low protein yield on day 60 ± 5 in lactation were ten times less likely (OR = 0.1) to be culled. In first lactation heifers, only BCS at last service increased the risk of involuntary culling due to infertility (OR = 13.0). A high milk yield acceleration was a significant (P = 0.04) factor in increasing the risk, five times (OR = 5.2) more, of culling cows due to udder problems. In conclusion, a high BCS at last service, high milk protein yield at around day 60 in lactation and acceleration of milk yield after calving exposed cows to a risk of being culled involuntarily. In practice, monitoring of traits that indicate metabolic imbalance could assist identifying cows at high risk of being culled and contribute to reducing the associated risk through a more effective timely decision.

Characterisation of smallholder dairy production systems using animal welfare and milk quality.

The aim of the current study was to characterise and evaluate production system of smallholder dairy farmers using an index based on combined score of animal welfare and milk quality. Farms were grouped into three categories, tier 1, tier 2 and tier 3. To test the robustness of the characterisation, milk yield (MY), calving interval (CI) and body condition scores (BCS) were used. In the study area, the majority (66.3%) of smallholder dairy farmers practiced cut-and-carry as compared to 15.3% who grazed their cows. The rest combined cut-and-carry and grazing. Cows of farmers in tier 1 had the lowest mean MY (5.4 kg/day, SE = 0.4), lowest mean BCS (2.1 kg/day, SE = 0.09) and longest mean CI (603 days, SE = 27) than farmers in tier 3, mean MY (10.8 kg/day, SE = 0.6), mean BCS (2.6, SE = 0.06) and mean CI (404 days, SE = 17). The study demonstrated that a simple and yet novel method based on farm level indicators can be developed and could assist to timely identify specific problems on the farm.

Smallholder dairy production in Northern Malawi: production practices and constraints.

Milk production in Malawi is still unsatisfactory despite efforts by different stakeholders to boost the dairy sector. To investigate the roots of the problem, a survey on the current production practices and constraints on smallholder dairy farming was conducted in the Northern Region of the country. A total of 210 farmers were interviewed. The results revealed that farmers had small herd sizes in the region with an average of 2.2 ± 0.6 cattle per farmer. Average herd size was larger in male-managed farms than in female-managed farms (2.6 ± 2.8 vs. 1.8 ± 1.3), farmers with more than 5 years of dairy farming experience had larger herds than those with less experience (2.6 ± 2.8 vs. 1.9 ± 1. 2) and farmers who grazed their animals tended to have larger herds than those that stall-fed their animals (4.4 ± 5.1 vs. 1.9 ± 1.3). Average milk production was 8.2 ± 6.5 l per cow per day. Higher average daily milk production was observed in farmers with above primary school education (10.3 ± 8.3 vs. 7.7 ± 5.6), those with dairy farming as main activity (9.3 ± 6.6 vs. 6. 5 ± 6.1) and farmers with more than 2 years of experience in dairy farming (9.3 ± 6.3 vs. 6.1 ± 6.4). Unreliable supply of improved animal genetics, poor animal health, feed shortage and poor prices for milk were considered to be the most important constraints to smallholder dairy farming in descending order.

Prediction of the reproductive status of cattle on the basis of milk progesterone measures: model description.

Reproductive management, in particular timely oestrus detection, is important for profitable dairy production. The aim of this study was to develop a biological model to predict reproductive state on the basis of milk progesterone measures. A number of additional inputs were incorporated to make use of other known effectors of reproductive performance that are not reflected in progesterone levels. These are: days from calving, breed, parity, signs of behavioural oestrus, insemination dates, pregnancy determinations, energy status, body fat status, milk urea content and reproductive disorders associated with calving. A dynamic, deterministic model was developed. It is designed to run each time a new trigger input (progesterone, behavioural oestrus, inseminations, pregnancy determinations) occurs using the current and previous values and can run in the absence of the additional inputs. The milk progesterone values are smoothed using an extended Kalman filter before being processed in the biological component of the model. The model predicts the reproductive status of the cow, which can be one of three mutually exclusive states: postpartum anoestrus, oestrus cycling, and potentially pregnant. The other model outputs are all reproductive status specific with the exception of days to next sample (DNS), which is calculated in each model run regardless of reproductive status. DNS is designed to feedback to the sampling system so that the frequency of milk sampling (i.e. progesterone measurement) can be varied according to the predicted likelihood of a future reproductive event, such as onset of oestrus cycling. The other model outputs are: risk of prolonged postpartum anoestrus, risk and type of ovarian cyst, onset of oestrus, likelihood of a potential insemination succeeding, and likelihood of being pregnant (following oestrus). The model was evaluated using three simulated datasets consisting of a timeseries of progesterone values centred on each of the three reproductive statuses and including relevant additional information. Test runs were carried out on the full datasets and then on reduced data. The data reductions were made by using only those values that would have been available if the model days to next sample function was used to control sampling frequency. The sensitivity of the model to noise in the raw progesterone data was examined by adding 1, 2, or 3 residual standard deviations (1.85 ng/ml) random variation to the original data and evaluating model performance. The model was found to be able to readily identify and distinguish reproductive states. A reduction in sampling frequency to 36% of original sample resulted in an average increase in days to detection of oestrus of 0.36. The addition of 1 S.D. noise did not cause additional oestruses to be detected and all oestruses were correctly identified. However, when 2 or 3 S.D. noise were added, the model found on average 1.4 and 3 extra oestruses. It was concluded that reproductive status can be predicted from milk progesterone values using a biological model and that such a model is robust to reductions in sampling frequency number and to a doubling in the random variation in the raw progesterone values. It therefore has the potential to provide the basis for a useful reproductive management tool.