Setting research priorities for global pandemic preparedness: An international consensus and comparison with ChatGPT's output.

Background: In this priority-setting exercise, we sought to identify leading research priorities needed for strengthening future pandemic preparedness and response across countries. Methods: The International Society of Global Health (ISoGH) used the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) method to identify research priorities for future pandemic preparedness. Eighty experts in global health, translational and clinical research identified 163 research ideas, of which 42 experts then scored based on five pre-defined criteria. We calculated intermediate criterion-specific scores and overall research priority scores from the mean of individual scores for each research idea. We used a bootstrap (n = 1000) to compute the 95% confidence intervals. Results: Key priorities included strengthening health systems, rapid vaccine and treatment production, improving international cooperation, and enhancing surveillance efficiency. Other priorities included learning from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, managing supply chains, identifying planning gaps, and promoting equitable interventions. We compared this CHNRI-based outcome with the 14 research priorities generated and ranked by ChatGPT, encountering both striking similarities and clear differences. Conclusions: Priority setting processes based on human crowdsourcing - such as the CHNRI method - and the output provided by ChatGPT are both valuable, as they complement and strengthen each other. The priorities identified by ChatGPT were more grounded in theory, while those identified by CHNRI were guided by recent practical experiences. Addressing these priorities, along with improvements in health planning, equitable community-based interventions, and the capacity of primary health care, is vital for better pandemic preparedness and response in many settings.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of the effectiveness of hypertension interventions in faith-based organisation settings.

Background: Hypertension is the global, leading cause of mortality and is the main risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Community-based partnerships can provide cost-saving ways of delivering effective blood pressure (BP) interventions to people in resource-poor settings. Faith-based organisations (FBOs) prove important potential health partners, given their reach and community standing. This potential is especially strong in hard-to-reach, socio-economically marginalised communities. This systematic review explores the state of the evidence of FBO-based interventions on BP management, with a focus on randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and cluster RCTs (C-RCTs). Methods: Seven academic databases (English = 5, Chinese = 2) and grey literature were searched for C-/RCTs of community-based interventions in FBO settings. Only studies with pre- and post-intervention BP measures were kept for analysis. Random effects models were developed using restricted maximum likelihood estimation (REML) to estimate the population average mean change and 95% confidence interval (CI) of both systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP). The overall heterogeneity was assessed by successively adding studies and recording changes in heterogeneity. Prediction intervals were generated to capture the spread of the pooled effect across study settings. Results: Of the 19 055 titles identified, only 11 studies of fair to good quality were kept for meta-analysis. Non-significant, average mean differences between baseline and follow-up for the intervention and control groups were found for both SBP (0.78 mm of mercury (mmHg) (95% CI = 2.11-0.55)) and DBP (-0.20 mm Hg (95% CI = -1.16 to 0.75)). Subgroup analysis revealed a significant reduction in SBP of -6.23 mm Hg (95% CI = -11.21 to -1.25) for populations with mean baseline SBP of ≥140 mm Hg. Conclusions: The results support the potential of FBO-based interventions in lowering SBP in clinically hypertensive populations. However, the limited evidence was concentrated primarily in Christian communities in the US More research is needed to understand the implications of such interventions in producing clinically meaningful long-term effects in a variety of settings. Further research can illuminate factors that affect success and potential expansion to sites outside the US as well as non-Christian FBOs. Current evidence is inadequate to evaluate the potential of FBO-based interventions in preventing hypertension in non-hypertensive populations. Intervention effects in non-hypertensive population might be better reflected through intermediate outcomes.

Systematic Review Estimating the Burden of Dementia in the Latin America and Caribbean Region: A Bayesian Approach.

Background: The global burden of dementia has increasingly shifted to low- and middle-income regions that lack essential data for monitoring epidemiological progression, and policy and planning support. Drawing upon data that have emerged since the last known estimates published in 2015, this study aims to update dementia estimates in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region for the years 2020, 2030, and 2050 through the application of a recently validated Bayesian approach for disease estimates useful when data sources are scarce. Methods: A comprehensive parallel systematic review of PubMed, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Global Health, and LILACS was conducted to identify prospective population-based epidemiological studies on dementia published in English from 2013 to 2018 in LAC. English and non-English data cited by a recent review on dementia estimates in LAC were also examined for additional data. A Bayesian normal-normal hierarchical model (NNHM) was developed to estimate age-specific and age-adjusted dementia prevalence in people aged 60+. Using age-specific population projections from the UN, the total number of people affected by dementia for the years 2020, 2030, and 2050 were estimated. Results: 1,414 studies were identified, of which only 7 met the inclusion criteria. The studies had 7,684 participants and 1,191 dementia cases. The age-standardized prevalence of all forms of dementia in LAC was 8% (95% CI: 5-11.5%) in people aged 60+. The estimated prevalence varied with age, increasing from 2.5% (95% CI: 0.08-4.0%) in the 60-69 age group, to 9.4% (95% CI: 5.4-13.2%) in the 70-79 age group and 28.9% (95% CI: 20.3-37.2%) in the ≥80 age group. The number of people age 60 and older living with dementia in LAC in 2020 was estimated at 6.86 (95% CI: 4.3-9.8) million, 9.94 (95% CI: 6.16-14.15) million in 2030, and 19.33 (95% CI: 12.3-13.6) million in 2050. Conclusion: We project an upward disease trajectory for dementia in LAC countries. The projection is likely an underestimation of the true dementia burden given the underrepresentation of rural and socio-economically deprived populations. More research is urgently needed to improve the accuracy of disease estimates, guide clinicians to improve evaluations for earlier recognition of dementia, and support the development of effective policies for improving dementia prevention, diagnosis and clinical management in LAC's diverse and aging communities.

Using evidence, expert opinion and epidemiological model to understand pathways to survival and mortality: The Pathways to Survival (PATHS) Tool.

BACKGROUND: The reasons why episodes of illness can lead to fatal outcomes in affected persons in low resource settings are numerous and complex. A tool that allows policy makers to better understand those complexities could be useful to improve success of programmes that are implemented globally to reduce mortality. METHODS: We developed a "Pathways to Survival" (PATHS) tool: an epidemiological model using decision trees, available evidence and expert opinion. PATHS visualises the "architecture" of mortality in the population by following the entire population cohort over a certain period of time. It explains how initially healthy persons progress through health systems to lethal outcomes at the end of the specified time period. We developed an illustrative example based on the 136 million newborns and an estimated 907 000 deaths from newborn sepsis in the year 2008. This allowed us to develop an epidemiological model that described pathways to deaths from neonatal sepsis globally in 2010. RESULTS: The model described the "status quo' situation in 2010 with 907 000 deaths to allow an assessment of the potential impact and feasibility of different interventions and programmes at various level of health systems in reducing this cause of mortality. A useful model should incorporate both a 'horizontal' and a 'vertical' component. The 'horizontal' would track the progress of all neonates globally through time, ie, their first 28 days of life, and separate them into different 'pathways' every time a change in their risk of dying from neonatal infection occurs because of their specific contextual circumstances. The 'vertical' would track their position within the health systems of their countries and separate them into different categories based on the ability of health system to intervene and reduce their risk of dying. Based on those requirements, PATHS tool was developed which is based on decision trees where different "branches" of the trees are associated with varying case-fatality rates. CONCLUSIONS: The application of the PATHS tool on the example of newborn sepsis revealed that novel diagnostic tests could save many lives, so we should continue to invest in them to improve their validity, deliverability and affordability. However, PATHS showed that investments in better diagnostics have limited impact unless they are coupled with improvements of the context. Programs for parental education improve compliance and care seeking. Promoting legislation change to empower community health workers (CHWs) to actively engage in prevention, diagnosis and care also makes a difference, as well as programs for training CHWs to use diagnostic tests and administer treatments correctly. Care-seeking behaviour can also be improved through programs of conditional cash transfers. Finally, PATHS demonstrated that improving access to primary and secondary health care for everyone is the most powerful contextual change.

Construction of an area-deprivation index for 2869 counties in China: a census-based approach.

BACKGROUND: A paucity of data has made it challenging to construct a deprivation index at the lowest administrative, or county, level in China. An index is required to guide health equity monitoring and resource allocation to regions of greatest need. This study used China's 2010 census data to construct a county-level area-deprivation index (CADI). METHODS: Data for 2869 counties from China's 2010 census were used to generate a CADI. Eleven indicators across four domains of deprivation were selected for principal component analysis with standardisation of the first principal component. Sensitivity analysis was used to test whether the population size and weighting method affected the index's robustness. Deprived counties identified by the CADI were then compared with China's official list of poverty-stricken counties. RESULTS: The first principal component explained 60.38% of the total variation in the deprivation indicators. The CADI ranged from the least deprived value of -2.71 to the most deprived value of 2.92, with SD of 1. The CADI was found to be robust against county-level population size and different weighting methods. When compared with the official list of poverty-stricken counties in China, the deprived counties identified by the CADI were found to be even more deprived. CONCLUSION: Constructing a robust area-deprivation index for China at the county level based on population census data is feasible. The CADI is a potential policy tool to identify China's most deprived areas. In the future, it may support health equity monitoring and comparison at the national and subnational levels.

Systematic review estimating the burden of dementia in the WHO Southeast Asia Region using Bayesian and frequentist approaches.

BACKGROUND: Rapid increase in life expectancy in low- and middle-income countries including the World Health Organization's Southeast Asia Region (SEAR) has resulted in an increase in the global burden of dementia, which is expected to become a leading cause of morbidity. Accurate burden estimates are key for informing policy and planning. Given the paucity of data, estimates were developed using both a Bayesian methodology and as well as a traditional frequentist approach to gain better insights into methodological approaches for disease burden estimates. METHODS: Seven databases were searched for studies published between 2010-2018 regarding dementia prevalence in SEAR, generating 8 relevant articles. A random-effects model (REM) and a Bayesian normal-normal hierarchical model (NNHM) were used to obtain the pooled prevalence estimate of dementia for people aged 60 and above in SEAR. The latter model was also developed to estimate age-specific dementia prevalence. Using UN population estimates for SEAR, total and age-specific projections of the burden of dementia in 2015, 2020 and 2030 were calculated. RESULTS: The prevalence of dementia in SEAR was found to be 3% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 2-6%) in those above age 60 based on REM, and 3.1% (95% credible interval = 1.5-5.0%) based on the NNHM. The estimated prevalence varies with age, increasing from 1.6% (95% credible interval = 0.8-2.5%) in people aged 60-69 to 12.4% (95% credible interval = 5.6-20%) in people above the age of 80. The risk of developing dementia increased exponentially with age. The number of people living with dementia in SEAR in 2015 was estimated at 5.51 million (95% credible interval = 2.66-8.82), with projections of 6.66 million (95% credible interval = 3.21-10.7) in 2020 and 9.6 million (95% credible interval = 4.62-15.36) in 2030. CONCLUSION: The burden of dementia in SEAR is substantial and will continue to increase rapidly by 2030. The lack of research focusing on dementia in SEAR points to a significant under-recognition of this disease. The projected rise in dementia cases in the future should prompt urgent governmental response to address this growing public health issue. We also argue that given the overall paucity of data for the region, the Bayesian approach offers a promising methodology for improved estimates of disease prevalence and burden and should continue to be explored.

The disease burden of childhood asthma in China: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: In China, childhood asthma prevalence showed a remarkable increase in the past decades. An updated epidemiological assessment of childhood asthma in China with a focus on prevalence and time trends is required. METHODS: We systematically searched three main Chinese databases and one English database to identify epidemiological studies of the prevalence of childhood asthma in China. Asthma cases were defined according to one of the five sets of Chinese diagnostic criteria which were established by the Children Respiratory Disease Group. We estimated age- and sex-specific prevalence of asthma using a multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression. We presented the time trends of asthma prevalence between 1990 and 2020 by age, sex and setting (urban vs rural), and also estimated the number of children affected by asthma in 2010. RESULTS: In 1990, the prevalence of asthma ranged from 0.13% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.10-0.20) in rural girls aged 14 years to 1.34% (95% CI = 1.11-1.67) in urban boys aged five years. In 2010, the overall prevalence of asthma in Chinese children aged 0-14 years was 2.12% (95% CI = 1.83-2.51), corresponding to 5.16 million children living with asthma. Children aged 5-9 years were with the highest prevalence estimate of 2.65% (95% CI = 2.31-3.12) and those aged 10-14 years were with the lowest (1.48%, 95% CI = 1.26-1.78). In 2020, it is expected that this disparity will continue, with the prevalence of asthma being at the lowest level among rural girls aged 14 years (1.11%, 95% CI = 0.82-1.54) and at the highest level among urban boys aged four years (10.27%, 95% CI = 8.61-12.18). Over the 30 years (1990-2020), the prevalence of asthma in children aged 0-14 years has increased in both sexes and settings, which was consistently the lowest in rural girls and the highest in urban boys. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that childhood asthma has been increasingly prevalent in China. Asthma is more frequent in boys and in rural areas. The detailed and systematic estimates of asthma prevalence in this study constitute the best currently available basis for policymaking, planning, and allocation of health and welfare resources related to the burden of childhood asthma in China.

Beijing's diagnosis-related group payment reform pilot: Impact on quality of acute myocardial infarction care.

In 2012, China's first diagnosis-related group (DRG) payment system was piloted in Beijing. This study explored whether this payment pilot improved quality and reduced costs of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) care in hospitals implementing DRG payment as compared to control hospitals. A difference-in-difference study design was used with regression and considered several quality indicators including aspirin at arrival, aspirin at discharge, ß-blocker at arrival, ß-blocker at discharge, statin at discharge, in-hospital mortality, and 30-day readmission rates. DRG payment mechanisms without specific mechanisms to promote care quality did not improve quality of AMI care. Future studies should study the impact of cost control mechanisms together with quality improvement efforts to assess how quality of care may be improved within the Chinese healthcare system. These lessons would be helpful to share with lower-middle-income countries undergoing rapid development that are transitioning to a significantly higher burden of non-communicable diseases.

Prevalence of dementia in Nigeria: a systematic review of the evidence.

BACKGROUND: The burden of dementia is poorly understood in Nigeria. We sought to gather available epidemiologic evidence on dementia in Nigeria to provide country-wide estimates of its prevalence and associated risks. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health, Africa Journals Online (AJOL) and Google Scholar for epidemiologic studies on dementia in Nigeria from 1990 to 2018. We pooled crude estimates using random effects meta-analysis. A meta-regression epidemiologic model, using the United Nations demographics for Nigeria, was used to estimate the absolute number of people living with dementia in Nigeria in 1995 and 2015. RESULTS: Our searches returned 835 studies, of which nine were selected. These included 10 820 individuals with a median age of 74.4 years. Heterogeneity (I 2 =98.8%, P<0.001) was high across studies. Five studies were conducted in the South-west, and four studies were rated as high quality. The pooled crude prevalence of dementia in Nigeria was 4.9% (95% CI: 3.0-6.9) with prevalence significantly higher in women (6.7%, 3.6-9.9) compared to men (3.1%, 1.2-5.0). Age 80+ (odds ratio (OR) 1.6, 1.3-1.9), female sex (OR 2.2, 1.4-3.4) and BMI ≤18.5 (OR 3.5, 1.2-10.1) were significant risks for dementia in Nigeria. Using our epidemiologic model, we estimated that the number of dementia cases increased by over 400% over a 20-year period, increasing from 63 512 in 1995 to 318 011 in 2015 among persons aged ≥60 years. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest the prevalence and cases of dementia have increased in Nigeria over the last two decades. Population-wide response to dementia is lacking.

Setting weights for fifteen CHNRI criteria at the global and regional level using public stakeholders: an Amazon Mechanical Turk study.

INTRODUCTION: Stakeholder involvement has been described as an indispensable part of health research priority setting. Yet, more than 75% of the exercises using the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) methodology have omitted the step involving stakeholders in priority setting. Those that have used stakeholders have rarely used the public, possibly due to the difficulty of assembling and/or accessing a public stakeholder group. In order to strengthen future exercises using the CHNRI methodology, we have used a public stakeholder group to weight 15 CHNRI criteria, and have explored regional differences or being a health stakeholder is influential, and whether the criteria are collapsible. METHODS: Using Amazon Mechanical Turk (AMT), an online crowdsourcing platform, we collected demographic information and conducted a Likert-scale format survey about the importance of the CHNRI criteria from 1051 stakeholders. The Kruskal-Wallis test, with Dunn's test for posthoc comparisons, was used to examine regional differences and Wilcoxon rank-sum test was used to analyse differences between stakeholders with health training/background and stakeholders without a health background and by region. A Factor Analysis (FA) was conducted on the criteria to identify the main domains connecting them. Criteria means were converted to weights. RESULTS: There were regional differences in thirteen of fifteen criteria according to the Kruskal-Wallis test and differences in responses from health stakeholders vs those who were not in eleven of fifteen criteria using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Three components were identified: improve and impact results; implementation and affordability; and, study design and dissemination. A formula is provided to convert means to weights for future studies. CONCLUSION: In future CHNRI studies, researchers will need to ensure adequate representation from stakeholders to undue bias of CHNRI results. These results should be used in combination with other stakeholder groups, including government, donors, policy makers, and bilateral agencies. Global and regional stakeholder groups scored CHNRI criteria differently; due to this, researchers should consider which group to use in their CHNRI exercises.

Exploring individual and demographic characteristics and their relation to CHNRI Criteria from an international public stakeholder group: an analysis using random intercept and logistic regression modelling.

INTRODUCTION: The Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) method for health research prioritisation relies on stakeholders weighting criteria used to assess research options. These weights in turn impact on the final scores and ranks assigned to research options. Three quarters of CHNRI studies published to date have not involved stakeholders in criteria weighting. Of those that have, few incorporated members of the public into stakeholder groups. Those that have compared different stakeholder groups, such as donors, researchers, or policy makers, showed that different groups place different values upon CHNRI criteria. When choosing the composition of a stakeholder group, it may be important to understand factors that may influence weighting. Drawing upon a group of international public stakeholders, this study explores some of the effects of individual and demographic characteristics has on the weights assigned to the most commonly used CHNRI criteria, with the aim of informing future researchers on avoiding future biases. METHODS: Individual and demographic information and 5-point Likert scale responses to questions about the importance of 15 CHNRI criteria were collected from 1031 "Turkers" (Amazon Mechanical Turk workers) via Amazon Mechanical Turk (AMT), which is an online crowdsourcing platform. Thirteen of the fifteen criteria were analysed using random-intercept models and the remaining two were analysed through logistic regression. RESULTS: Self-reported health status explained most of the variability in participants' responses across criteria (11/15 criteria), followed by being female (10/15), ethnicity (9/15), employment (8/15), and religion (7/15). Differences across criteria indicate that when choosing stakeholder groups, researchers need to consider these factors to minimise bias. CONCLUSION: Researchers should collect and report more detailed information from stakeholders, including individual and demographic characteristics, and ensure participation from both genders, multiple ethnicities, religious beliefs, and people with differing health statuses to be transparent regarding possible biases in health research prioritisation. Our analyses indicate that these factors do influence the relative importance of these values, even when the data appears fairly homogeneous.

Identifying potential uses of crowdsourcing in global health, conflict, and humanitarian settings: an adapted CHNRI (Child Health and Nutrition Initiative) exercise.

BACKGROUND: Crowdsourcing, outsourcing problems and tasks to a crowd, has grown exponentially since the term was coined a decade ago. Being a rapid and inexpensive approach, it is particularly amenable to addressing problems in global health, conflict and humanitarian settings, but its potential has not been systematically assessed. We employed the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative's (CHNRI) method to generate a ranked list of potential uses of crowdsourcing in global health and conflict. PROCESS: 94 experts in global health and crowdsourcing submitted their ideas, and 239 ideas were scored. Each expert scored ideas against three of seven criteria, which were tailored specifically for the exercise. A relative ranking was calculated, along with an Average Expert Agreement (AEA). FINDINGS: On a scale from 0-100, the scores assigned to proposed ideas ranged from 80.39 to 42.01. Most ideas were related to problem solving (n = 112) or data generation (n = 91). Using health care workers to share information about disease outbreaks to ensure global response had the highest score and agreement. Within the top 15, four additional ideas related to containing communicable diseases, two ideas related to using crowdsourcing for vital registration and two to improve maternal and child health. The top conflict ideas related to epidemic responses and various aspects of disease spread. Wisdom of the crowds and machine learning scored low despite being promising in literature. INTERPRETATIONS: Experts were invited to generate ideas during the Ebola crisis and to score during reports of Zika, which may have affected the scoring. However, crowdsourcing's rapid, inexpensive characteristics make it suitable for addressing epidemics. Given that many ideas reflected Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), crowdsourcing may be an innovative solution to achieving some of the SDGs.

Global and regional estimates of the morbidity due to type I diabetes among children aged 0-4 years: a systematic review and analysis.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiology of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) among children aged 0-4 years globally is not well understood. We aim to assess the incidence of T1DM in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) by conducting a systematic review of previous reports. We also aim to address possible contribution to child mortality and to identify any temporal trends. METHODS: A systematic review was performed using a carefully designed search strategy to explore MEDLINE, EMBASE and Global Health databases. Data was extracted from all studies that satisfied the inclusion criteria -a total of 83 records extracted from 26 830 sources that were analysed. We used the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) process to assess quality of evidence and applied meta-analysis approaches to assess global and regional incidence and time trends. RESULTS: The overall pooled incidence of T1DM in children aged 0-4 years globally is 11.2 (95% CI = 10.0-12.3) per 100 000 child years. The regional incidence were the highest for European Region A (EUR A) at 15.5 (95% CI = 13.5-17.5) per 100 000 child years. EUR C had the incidence of 10.0 (95% CI = 6.5-13.6) and EUR B 5.8 (95% CI = 4.7-7.0), Region of the Americas A (AMR A) 11.4 (95% CI = 7.8-14.9), AMR B of 2.5 (95% CI = 0.2-4.8), Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR B) 7.1 (95% CI = 4.2-10.0) and Western Pacific Region (WPR A) 7.0 (95% CI = 2.9-11.0) per 100 000 child years, while other regions had very low rates or no data. When data points were categorised in the study periods and re-analysed, an increasing trend of the T1DM incidence was observed, with the incidence of 20.9 (95% CI = 7.8-34.1) per 100 000 child years in the years 2010-2015, preceded by 13.2 (95% CI = 11.0-15.5) in 2000-2009 study period, 10.0 (95% CI = 8.4-11.7) in 1990-1999 and 8.3 (95% CI = 5.1-11.6) in 1980-1989, respectively. Although the data are scarce, and variation and uncertainty are large, we estimated that the number of new cases of T1DM among children aged 0-4 years in the world each year is between 100 000 and 150 000. CONCLUSIONS: The identified large variation in incidence estimates for different parts of the world, along with scarcity of information and the identified strong temporal increase in T1DM incidence suggest a clear need for further research into this subject.

Setting research priorities to achieve long-term health targets in Iran.

BACKGROUND: In 2015, it was estimated that the burden of disease in Iran comprised of 19 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), 74% of which were due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The observed leading causes of death were cardiovascular diseases (41.9%), neoplasms (14.9%), and road traffic injuries (7.4%). Even so, the health research investment in Iran continues to remain limited. This study aims to identify national health research priorities in Iran for the next five years to assist the efficient use of resources towards achieving the long-term health targets. METHODS: Adapting the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) method, this study engaged 48 prominent Iranian academic leaders in the areas related to Iran's long-term health targets, a group of research funders and policy makers, and 68 stakeholders from the wider society. 128 proposed research questions were scored independently using a set of five criteria: feasibility, impact on health, impact on economy, capacity building, and equity. FINDINGS: The top-10 priorities were focused on the research questions relating to: health insurance system reforms to improve equity; integration of NCDs prevention strategy into primary health care; cost-effective population-level interventions for NCDs and road traffic injury prevention; tailoring medical qualifications; epidemiological assessment of NCDs by geographic areas; equality in the distribution of health resources and services; current and future common health problems in Iran's elderly and strategies to reduce their economic burden; the status of antibiotic resistance in Iran and strategies to promote rational use of antibiotics; the health impacts of water crisis; and research to replace the physician-centered health system with a team-based one. CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight consensus amongst various prominent Iranian researchers and stakeholders over the research priorities that require investment to generate information and knowledge relevant to the national health targets and policies. The exercise should assist in addressing the knowledge gaps to support both the National General Health Policies by 2025 and the health targets of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals by 2030.

The national and subnational prevalence of cataract and cataract blindness in China: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cataract is the second leading cause of visual impairment and the first of blindness globally. However, for the most populous country, China, much remains to be understood about the scale of cataract and cataract blindness. We aimed to investigate the prevalence of cataract and cataract blindness in China at both the national and subnational levels, with projections till 2050. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), Wanfang, Chinese Biomedicine Literature Database (CBM-SinoMed), PubMed, Embase, and Medline were searched using a comprehensive search strategy to identify all relevant articles on the prevalence of cataract or cataract blindness in Chinese population published from January 1990 onwards. We fitted a multilevel mixed-effects meta-regression model to estimate the prevalence of cataract, and a random-effects meta-analysis model to pool the overall prevalence of cataract blindness. The United Nations Population Division (UNPD) data were used to estimate and project the number of people with cataract and cataract blindness from 1990 to 2050. According to different demographic and geographic features in the six geographic regions in China, the national numbers of people with cataract in the years 2000 and 2010 were distributed to each region. RESULTS: In males, the prevalence of any cataract (including post-surgical cases) ranged from 6.71% (95% CI = 5.06-8.83) in people aged 45-49 years to 73.01% (95% CI = 65.78-79.2) in elderly aged 85-89 years. In females, the prevalence of any cataract increased from 8.39% (95% CI = 6.36-10.98) in individuals aged 45-49 years to 77.51% (95% CI = 71.00-82.90) in those aged 85-89 years. For age-related cataract (ARC, including post-surgical cases), in males, the prevalence rates ranged from 3.23% (95% CI = 1.51-6.80) in adults aged 45-49 years to 65.78% (95% CI = 46.72-80.82) in those aged 85-89 years. The prevalence of ARC in females was 4.72% (95% CI = 2.22-9.76) in the 45-49 years age group and 74.03% (95% CI = 56.53-86.21) in the 85-89 years age group. The pooled prevalence rate of cataract blindness (including post-surgical cases) by best corrected visual acuity (BCVA)<0.05 among middle-aged and older Chinese was 2.30% (95% CI = 1.72-3.07), and those of cataract blindness by BCVA<0.10 and cataract blindness by presenting visual acuity (PVA)<0.10 were 2.56% (95% CI = 1.94-3.38) and 4.51% (95% CI = 3.53-5.75) respectively. In people aged 45-89 years, the number of any cataract cases was 50.75 million (95% CI = 42.17-60.37) in 1990 and 111.74 million (95% CI = 92.94-132.84) in 2015, and that of ARC rose from 35.77 million (95% CI = 19.81-59.55) in 1990 to 79.04 million (95% CI = 44.14-130.85) in 2015. By 2050, it is projected that the number of people (45-89 years of age) affected by any cataract will be 240.83 million (95% CI = 206.07-277.35), and that of those with ARC will be 187.26 million (95% CI = 113.17-281.23). During 2000 and 2010, South Central China consistently owed the most cases of any cataract, whereas Northwest China the least. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of cataract and cataract blindness in China was unmasked. In the coming decades, cataract and cataract blindness will continue to be a leading public-health issue in China due to the ageing population. Future work should be prioritized to the promotion of high-quality epidemiological studies on cataract.

Prevalence, risk factors and burden of diabetic retinopathy in China: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Diabetic retinopathy (DR), the primary retinal vascular complication of diabetes mellitus (DM), is a leading cause of vision impairment and blindness in working-age population globally. Despite mounting concerns about the emergence of DM as a major public health problem in the largest developing country, China, much remains to be understood about the epidemiology of DR. We aimed to investigate the prevalence of and risk factors for DR, and estimate the burden of DR in China in 2010. METHODS: China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), Wanfang, Chinese Biomedicine Literature Database (CBM-SinoMed), PubMed, Embase and Medline were searched for studies that reported the prevalence of and risk factors for DR in Chinese population between 1990 and 2017. A random-effects meta-analysis model was adopted to pool the overall prevalence of DR. Variations in the prevalence of DR in different age groups, DM duration groups and settings were assessed by subgroup meta-analysis and meta-regression. Odds ratios (ORs) of major risk factors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. The number of people with DR in 2010 was estimated by multiplying the age-specific prevalence of DR in people with DM with the corresponding number of people with DM in China. Finally, the national number of people with DR was distributed into six geographic regions using a risk factor-based model. RESULTS: A total of 31 studies provided information on the prevalence of DR and 21 explored potential risk factors for DR. The pooled prevalence of any DR, nonproliferative DR (NPDR) and proliferative DR (PDR) was 1.14% (95% CI = 0.80-1.52), 0.90% (95% CI = 0.56-1.31) and 0.07% (95% CI = 0.02-0.14) in general population; In people with DM, the pooled prevalence rates were 18.45% (95% CI = 14.77-22.43), 15.06% (95% CI = 11.59-18.88) and 0.99% (95% CI = 0.40-1.80) for any DR, NPDR and PDR, respectively. The prevalence of any DR in DM patients peaked between 60 and 69 years of age, and increased steeply with the duration of DM. DM patients residing in rural China were at a higher risk to have DR than those in urban areas. In addition, insulin treatment, elevated FBG level and higher HbA1c concentration were confirmed to be associated with a higher prevalence of DR in people with DM, with meta-ORs of 1.99 (95% CI = 1.34-2.95), 1.33 (95% CI = 1.12-1.59) and 1.15 (95% CI = 1.09-1.20) respectively. In 2010, a total of 13.16 million (95% CI = 8.95-18.00) Chinese aged 45 years and above were living with DR, among whom the most were in South Central China and the least were in Northwest China. CONCLUSIONS: DR has become a serious public health problem in China. Optimal screening of and interventions on DR should be implemented. Improved epidemiological studies on DR are still required.

Estimating the incidence of breast cancer in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is estimated to be the most common cancer worldwide. We sought to assemble publicly available data from Africa to provide estimates of the incidence of breast cancer on the continent. METHODS: A systematic search of Medline, EMBASE, Global Health and African Journals Online (AJOL) was conducted. We included population- or hospital-based registry studies on breast cancer conducted in Africa, and providing estimates of the crude incidence of breast cancer among women. A random effects meta-analysis was employed to determine the pooled incidence of breast cancer across studies. RESULTS: The literature search returned 4648 records, with 41 studies conducted across 54 study sites in 22 African countries selected. We observed important variations in reported cancer incidence between population- and hospital-based cancer registries. The overall pooled crude incidence of breast cancer from population-based registries was 24.5 per 100 000 person years (95% confidence interval (CI) 20.1-28.9). The incidence in North Africa was higher at 29.3 per 100 000 (95% CI 20.0-38.7) than Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) at 22.4 per 100 000 (95% CI 17.2-28.0). In hospital-based registries, the overall pooled crude incidence rate was estimated at 23.6 per 100 000 (95% CI 18.5-28.7). SSA and Northern Africa had relatively comparable rates at 24.0 per 100 000 (95% CI 17.5-30.4) and 23.2 per 100 000 (95% CI 6.6-39.7), respectively. Across both registries, incidence rates increased considerably between 2000 and 2015. CONCLUSIONS: The available evidence suggests a growing incidence of breast cancer in Africa. The representativeness of these estimates is uncertain due to the paucity of data in several countries and calendar years, as well as inconsistency in data collation and quality across existing cancer registries.

Prevalence of dementia in mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: There are several existing systematic reviews of prevalence of dementia for mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, but several studies have been newly reported. The aim of this study is to update prevalence data in this region and test for variation across geographical areas and time periods using the new dataset. METHODS: Twenty prevalence studies identified from World Alzheimer Report 2015 (January 2011-March 2015) and an updated search (March 2015-February 2017) were added to the original dataset (N = 76). Meta-regression was used to investigate geographical variation and time trends, taking methodological factors and characteristics of study population into account, and to estimate prevalence and number of people with dementia by geographical area. RESULTS: Compared with northern China, the prevalence of dementia was lower in the central China [-1.0; 95% confidence interval (CI):-2.2, 0.3], south China (-1.7; 95% CI: -3.1, -0.3), Hong Kong and Taiwan (-3.0; 95% CI: -5.0, -1.0) but appeared to be higher in western China (2.8; 95% CI: 0.1, 5.5) after adjusting for methodological variation. The increasing trend from pre-1990 to post-2010 periods was considerably attenuated when taking into account methodological factors and geographical areas. The updated estimated number of people with dementia in all these areas is 9.5 million (5.3%; 95% CI: 4.3, 6.3) in the population aged 60 or above. CONCLUSIONS: Geographical variation in dementia prevalence is confirmed in this update, whereas evidence on increasing trends is still insufficient. Differing societal development across areas provides an opportunity to investigate risk factors at the population level operating across diverse life course experiences. Such research could advance global primary prevention of dementia.