Incidence and risk factors of anaemia among people on antiretroviral therapy in Harare.

Background: Anaemia is associated with reduced quality of life and increased mortality risk among people living with HIV (PLHIV). Although antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces the prevalence of anaemia, some patients remain at risk after commencing ART. Objectives: We estimated the incidence of anaemia after ART commencement and identified associated risk factors. Method: We analysed outpatient records at Newlands Clinic, Harare, Zimbabwe. Patients (≥ 5 years old) who were commenced on ART between January 2016 and December 2020 were included and were followed up for up to 2 years. Patients with anaemia at ART commencement and women who were pregnant at any time during follow-up were excluded. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess independent risk factors for anaemia. Results: During the study, 1110 patients ≥ 5 years old were commenced on ART with a prevalence of anaemia of 40.0%. Five hundred and twenty-nine patients met the inclusion criteria and were followed up for 823.7 person-years. The median age was 36.1 years and 290 (58.4%) were female. The incidence rate of anaemia after ART commencement was 176.1 per 1000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 149.6-207.2). Females (aHR: 2.09; 95% CI: 1.46-3.00, P < 0.001), zidovudine use (aHR: 3.50 96% CI: 2.14-5.71, P < 0.001), age 5-12 years or > 50 years, and the presence of World Health Organization stage III/IV disease (aHR: 2.19; 95% CI: 1.14-5.71, P = 0.019) had higher odds of developing anaemia. Conclusion: The incidence of anaemia after ART commencement was high. Female sex, zidovudine use, age and the presence of stage III/IV disease were independent risk factors for anaemia. Clinicians should screen PLHIV on ART regularly for anaemia.

Cervical cancer prevention and care in HIV clinics across sub-Saharan Africa: results of a facility-based survey.

INTRODUCTION: To eliminate cervical cancer (CC), access to and quality of prevention and care services must be monitored, particularly for women living with HIV (WLHIV). We assessed implementation practices in HIV clinics across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to identify gaps in the care cascade and used aggregated patient data to populate cascades for WLHIV attending HIV clinics. METHODS: Our facility-based survey was administered between November 2020 and July 2021 in 30 HIV clinics across SSA that participate in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) consortium. We performed a qualitative site-level assessment of CC prevention and care services and analysed data from routine care of WLHIV in SSA. RESULTS: Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination was offered in 33% of sites. Referral for CC diagnosis (42%) and treatment (70%) was common, but not free at about 50% of sites. Most sites had electronic health information systems (90%), but data to inform indicators to monitor global targets for CC elimination in WLHIV were not routinely collected in these sites. Data were collected routinely in only 36% of sites that offered HPV vaccination, 33% of sites that offered cervical screening and 20% of sites that offered pre-cancer and CC treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Though CC prevention and care services have long been available in some HIV clinics across SSA, patient and programme monitoring need to be improved. Countries should consider leveraging their existing health information systems and use monitoring tools provided by the World Health Organization to improve CC prevention programmes and access, and to track their progress towards the goal of eliminating CC.

Correcting mortality estimates among children and youth on antiretroviral therapy in southern Africa: A comparative analysis between a multi-country tracing study and linkage to a health information exchange.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to assess the outcomes of children, adolescents and young adults with HIV reported as lost to follow-up, correct mortality estimates for children, adolescents and young adults with HIV for unascertained outcomes in those loss to follow-up (LTFU) based on tracing and linkage data separately using data from the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS in Southern Africa. METHODS: We included data from two different populations of children, adolescents and young adults with HIV; (1) clinical data from children, adolescents and young adults with HIV aged ≤24 years from Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe; (2) clinical data from children, adolescents and young adults with HIV aged ≤14 years from the Western Cape (WC) in South Africa. Outcomes of patients lost to follow-up were available from (1) a tracing study and (2) linkage to a health information exchange. For both populations, we compared six methods for correcting mortality estimates for all children, adolescents and young adults with HIV. RESULTS: We found substantial variations of mortality estimates among children, adolescents and young adults with HIV reported as lost to follow-up versus those retained in care. Ascertained mortality was higher among lost and traceable children, adolescents and young adults with HIV and lower among lost and linkable than those retained in care (mortality: 13.4% [traced] vs. 12.6% [retained-other Southern Africa countries]; 3.4% [linked] vs. 9.4% [retained-WC]). A high proportion of lost to follow-up children, adolescents and young adults with HIV had self-transferred (21.0% and 47.0%) in the traced and linked samples, respectively. The uncorrected method of non-informative censoring yielded the lowest mortality estimates among all methods for both tracing (6.0%) and linkage (4.0%) approaches at 2 years from ART start. Among corrected methods using ascertained data, multiple imputation, incorporating ascertained data (MI(asc.)) and inverse probability weighting with logistic weights were most robust for the tracing approach. In contrast, for the linkage approach, MI(asc.) was the most robust. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings emphasise that lost to follow-up is non-ignorable and both tracing and linkage improved outcome ascertainment: tracing identified substantial mortality in those reported as lost to follow-up, whereas linkage did not identify out-of-facility deaths, but showed that a large proportion of those reported as lost to follow-up were self-transfers.

Person-centred care for older adults living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa.

More than a fifth of people living with HIV in the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief-supported programmes are older individuals, defined as aged 50 years and older, yet optimal person-centred models of care for older adults with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, including screening and treatment for geriatric syndromes and common comorbidities associated with ageing, remain undefined. This Position Paper explores the disproportionate burden of comorbidities and geriatric syndromes faced by older adults with HIV, with a special focus on women. We seek to motivate global interest in improving quality of life for older people with HIV by presenting available research and identifying research gaps for common geriatric syndromes, including frailty and cognitive decline, and multimorbidity among older people with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. We share two successful models of holistic care for older people with HIV that are ongoing in Zimbabwe and Kenya. Lastly, we provide policy, research, and implementation considerations to best serve this growing population.

Body weight and blood pressure changes on dolutegravir-, efavirenz- or atazanavir-based antiretroviral therapy in Zimbabwe: a longitudinal study.

INTRODUCTION: Dolutegravir (DTG) is widely used for antiretroviral therapy (ART). We compared weight and blood pressure trends and examined the association between high blood pressure and weight gain among people living with HIV (PLHIV) switching to or starting DTG-based, efavirenz (EFV)-based and ritonavir-boosted atazanavir (ATV/r)-based ART in Zimbabwe. METHODS: PLHIV aged 18 years or older who started or switched to DTG, EFV or ATV/r-based ART between January 2004 and June 2022 at Newlands Clinic in Harare, Zimbabwe, were eligible. Weight was measured at all visits (Seca floor scales); blood pressure only at clinician-led visits (Omron M2 sphygmomanometer). We used Bayesian additive models to estimate trends in weight gain and the proportion with high blood pressure (systolic >140 mmHg or diastolic >90 mmHg) in the first 2 years after starting or switching the regimen. Finally, we examined whether trends in the proportion with high blood pressure were related to weight change. RESULTS: We analysed 99,969 weight and 35,449 blood pressure records from 9487 adults (DTG: 4593; EFV: 3599; ATV/r: 1295). At 24 months after starting or switching to DTG, estimated median weight gains were 4.54 kg (90% credibility interval 3.88-5.28 kg) in women and 3.71 kg (3.07-4.45 kg) in men, around twice that observed for ATV/r and over four-times the gain observed for EFV. Prevalence of high blood pressure among PLHIV receiving DTG-based ART increased from around 5% at baseline to over 20% at 24 months, with no change in PLHIV receiving EFV- or ATV/r-based ART. High blood pressure in PLHIV switching to DTG was associated with weight gain, with stronger increases in the proportion with high blood pressure for larger weight gains. CONCLUSIONS: Among PLHIV starting ART or switching to a new regimen, DTG-based ART was associated with larger weight gains and a substantial increase in the prevalence of high blood pressure. Routine weight and blood pressure measurement and interventions to lower blood pressure could benefit PLHIV on DTG-based ART. Further studies are needed to elucidate the mechanisms and reversibility of these changes after discontinuation of DTG.

Virologic outcomes on dolutegravir-, atazanavir-, or efavirenz-based ART in urban Zimbabwe: A longitudinal study.

There are few data from sub-Saharan Africa on the virological outcomes associated with second-line ART based on protease inhibitors or dolutegravir (DTG). We compared viral load (VL) suppression among people living with HIV (PLWH) on atazanavir (ATV/r)- or DTG-based second-line ART with PLWH on efavirenz (EFV)-based first-line ART. We analyzed data from the electronic medical records system of Newlands Clinic in Harare, Zimbabwe. We included individuals aged ≥12 years when commencing first-line EFV-based ART or switching to second-line DTG- or ATV/r-based ART with ≥24 weeks follow-up after start or switch. We computed suppression rates (HIV VL <50 copies/mL) at weeks 12, 24, 48, 72, and 96 and estimated the probability of VL suppression by treatment regimen, time since start/switch of ART, sex, age, and CD4 cell count (at start/switch) using logistic regression in a Bayesian framework. We included 7013 VL measurements of 1049 PLWH (61% female) initiating first-line ART and 1114 PLWH (58% female) switching to second-line ART. Among those switching, 872 (78.3%) were switched to ATV/r and 242 (21.7%) to DTG. VL suppression was lower in second-line ART than first-line ART, except at week 12, when those on DTG showed higher suppression than those on EFV (aOR 2.10, 95%-credible interval [CrI] 1.48-3.00) and ATV/r-based regimens (aOR 1.87, 95%-CrI 1.32-2.71). For follow-up times exceeding 24 weeks however, first-line participants demonstrated significantly higher VL suppression than second-line, with no evidence for a difference between DTG and ATV/r. Notably, from week 48 onward, VL suppression seemed to stabilize across all regimen groups, with an estimated 89.1% (95% CrI 86.9-90.9%) VL suppression in EFV, 74.5% (95%-CrI 68.0-80.7%) in DTG, and 72.9% (95%-CrI 69.5-76.1%) in ATV/r at week 48, showing little change for longer follow-up times. Virologic monitoring and adherence support remain essential even in the DTG era to prevent second-line treatment failure in settings with limited treatment options.

Comparison of CG, CKD-EPI[AS] and CKD-EPI[ASR] equations to estimate glomerular filtration rate and predict mortality in treatment naïve people living with HIV in Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: Renal impairment in people living with HIV (PWH) in Sub-Saharan Africa is common and associated with increased morbidity and mortality. The ideal equation to estimate glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in this population remains unclear. That which best predicts clinical risk may be the most appropriate while validation studies are awaited. Here we compare the Cockcroft-Gault (CG), Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI[ASR]) and the CKD-EPI equation with the race coefficient removed (CKD-EPI[AS]), in a population of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) naïve PWH in Zimbabwe to assess which equation best predicts mortality. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of treatment naïve PWH at the Newlands Clinic in Harare, Zimbabwe was completed. The study included all patients commencing ART between 2007 and 2019. Predictors of mortality were assessed by multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 2991 patients were followed-up for a median of 4.6 years. The cohort was 62.1% female, with 26.1% of patients having at least one comorbidity. The CG equation identified 21.6% of patients as having renal impairment compared with 17.6% with CKD-EPI[AS] and 9.3% with CKD-EPI[ASR]. There was a mortality rate of 9.1% across the study period. The highest mortality risk was seen in those with renal impairment as determined by the CKD-EPI[ASR] equation for both eGFR < 90 and eGFR < 60 with OR 2.97 (95%CI 1.86-4.76) and OR 10.6 (95%CI 3.15-18.04) respectively. CONCLUSION: In treatment naïve PWH in Zimbabwe, the CKD-EPI[ASR] equation identifies patients at highest risk of mortality when compared to the CKD-EPI[AS] and CG equations.

Assessing renal impairment in treatment-naïve adolescents living with HIV commencing antiretroviral therapy in Zimbabwe.

OBJECTIVE: People with HIV (PWH) are increasingly experiencing non-communicable complications, including renal impairment, which are associated with worse clinical outcomes. Limited information exists surrounding renal impairment in paediatric PWH, of which the majority live in sub-Saharan Africa, and further information is required to guide clinical practice. This study describes the prevalence of new or worsening renal impairment in adolescents commencing antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Zimbabwe and associated risk factors. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. METHODS: Data were collected between January 2010 to January 2019 from the medical records of adolescents aged 12-17 years initiating ART at an outpatient HIV clinic in Zimbabwe. Renal function (estimated glomerular filtration rate, eGFR) was calculated using the Full Age Spectrum formula. Proteinuria was defined as a single urine dipstick score of ≥1+. Potential predictors of renal impairment at follow-up were assessed by logistical regression. RESULTS: Two hundred and sixty-six adolescents were included in analysis. Baseline renal impairment (eGFR < 90 ml/min/1.73 m 2 ) and proteinuria were present in 13% and 7% of the cohort, respectively. After a median of 4.1 years (interquartile range: 1.9-6.9) following ART commencement, mean eGFR increased by 10 ml/min/1.73 m 2 ( P  < 0.01), and the prevalence of renal impairment decreased to 8% ( P  < 0.01). Baseline renal impairment predicted renal impairment at follow-up (odds ratio [OR] 8.98; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.81-28.68; P  < 0.01). Proteinuria trended towards association with renal impairment at follow-up (OR 4.39; 95% CI 0.95-20.31; P  = 0.06). CONCLUSIONS: Renal impairment is common in adolescent ART-naïve PWH, and baseline renal impairment is associated with longstanding renal impairment, whereas baseline proteinuria trended towards an association with longstanding renal impairment.

Metabolic syndrome among treatment-naïve people living with and without HIV in Zambia and Zimbabwe: a cross-sectional analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic viral replication has been linked to an increased risk of cardiovascular and metabolic diseases in people living with HIV (PLWH), but few studies have evaluated this association in Southern Africa. We explored the determinants of metabolic syndrome (MetS) among treatment-naïve adults living with and without HIV in Southern Africa. METHODS: Treatment-naïve PLWH and people living without HIV (PLWOH) ≥30 years were consecutively enrolled from primary care clinics in Zambia and Zimbabwe. PLWOH were seronegative partners or persons presenting for HIV testing. We defined MetS as the presence of central obesity plus any two of the following: raised blood pressure, impaired fasting glucose, reduced high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and raised triglycerides, as defined by the International Diabetes Federation. We used logistic regression to determine factors associated with MetS. RESULTS: Between August 2019 and March 2022, we screened 1285 adults and enrolled 420 (47%) PLWH and 481 (53%) PLWOH. The median age was similar between PLWH and PLWOH (40 vs. 38 years, p < 0.24). In PLWH, the median CD4+ count was 228 cells/mm3 (IQR 108-412) and the viral load was 24,114 copies/ml (IQR 277-214,271). Central obesity was present in 365/523 (70%) females and 57/378 males (15%). MetS was diagnosed in 172/901 (19%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 17-22%), and prevalence was higher among females than males (27% vs. 9%). In multivariable analyses, HIV status was not associated with MetS (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.05, 95% CI 0.74-1.51). Risk factors for MetS included age older than 50 years (aOR 2.31, 95% CI 1.49-3.59), female sex (aOR 3.47, 95% CI 2.15-5.60), highest income (aOR 2.19, 95% CI 1.39-3.44) and less than World Health Organization recommended weekly physical activity (aOR 3.35, 95% CI 1.41-7.96). CONCLUSIONS: We report a high prevalence of MetS and central obesity among females in urban Zambia and Zimbabwe. Lifestyle factors and older age appear to be the strongest predictors of MetS in our population, with no evident difference in MetS prevalence between treatment-naïve PLWH and PLWOH.

High Unreported Mortality in Children and Youth (<25 Years) Living With HIV Who Were Lost to Care From Antiretroviral Therapy Programs in Southern Africa: Results From a Multicountry Tracing Study.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy program mortality maybe underestimated if deceased patients are misclassified as lost. METHODS: We used two-stage inverse probability weighting to account for probability of being: sampled for tracing and found by the tracer. RESULTS: Among 680 children and youth aged <25 years on antiretroviral therapy who were lost and traced in Southern Africa between October 2017 and November 2019, estimated mortality was high at 9.1% (62/680). After adjusting for measured covariates and within-site clustering, mortality remained lower for young adults aged 20-24 years compared with infants aged <2 years [adjusted hazard ratio: 0.40 (95% confidence interval: 0.31 to 0.51)]. CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirms high unreported mortality in children and youth who are lost and the need for tracing to assess vital status among those who are lost to accurately report on program mortality.

Real-world use and outcomes of dolutegravir-containing antiretroviral therapy in HIV and tuberculosis co-infection: a site survey and cohort study in sub-Saharan Africa.

INTRODUCTION: Dolutegravir is being scaled up globally as part of antiretroviral therapy (ART), but for people with HIV and tuberculosis co-infection, its use is complicated by a drug-drug interaction with rifampicin requiring an additional daily dose of dolutegravir. This represents a disadvantage over efavirenz, which does not have a major drug-drug interaction with rifampicin. We sought to describe HIV clinic practices for prescribing concomitant dolutegravir and rifampicin, and characterize virologic outcomes among patients with tuberculosis co-infection receiving dolutegravir or efavirenz. METHODS: Within the four sub-Saharan Africa regions of the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS consortium, we conducted a site survey (2021) and a cohort study (2015-2021). The cohort study used routine clinical data and included patients newly initiating or already receiving dolutegravir or efavirenz at the time of tuberculosis diagnosis. Patients were followed from tuberculosis diagnosis until viral suppression (<1000 copies/ml), a competing event (switching ART regimen; loss to program/death) or administrative censoring at 12 months. RESULTS: In the survey, 86 of 90 (96%) HIV clinics in 18 countries reported prescribing dolutegravir to patients who were receiving rifampicin as part of tuberculosis treatment, with 77 (90%) reporting that they use twice-daily dosing of dolutegravir, of which 74 (96%) reported having 50 mg tablets available to accommodate twice-daily dosing. The cohort study included 3563 patients in 11 countries, with 67% newly or recently initiating ART. Among patients receiving dolutegravir (n = 465), the cumulative incidence of viral suppression was 58.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 54.3-63.3%), switching ART regimen was 4.1% (95% CI: 2.6-6.2%) and loss to program/death was 23.4% (95% CI: 19.7-27.4%). Patients receiving dolutegravir had improved viral suppression compared with patients receiving efavirenz who had a tuberculosis diagnosis before site dolutegravir availability (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio [aSHR]: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.28-1.68) and after site dolutegravir availability (aSHR 1.28, 95% CI: 1.08-1.51). CONCLUSIONS: At a programmatic level, dolutegravir was being widely prescribed in sub-Saharan Africa for people with HIV and tuberculosis co-infection with a dose adjustment for the drug-drug interaction with rifampicin. Despite this more complex regimen, our cohort study revealed that dolutegravir did not negatively impact viral suppression.

Comparison of predictors for early and late mortality in adults commencing HIV antiretroviral therapy in Zimbabwe: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: People living with HIV (PLWHIV) commencing antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa experience significant mortality within the first year. Previously, identified risk factors for mortality may be biased towards these patients, as compared to those who experience late mortality. AIM: To compare risk factors for early and late mortality in PLWHIV commencing ART. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of ART-naïve patients aged ≥ 18 years from an outpatient HIV clinic in Zimbabwe. Data were collected between January 2010 and January 2019. Predictors for early (≤ 1 year) and late mortality (> 1 year) were determined by multivariable cox proportional hazards analyses, with patients censored at 1 year and landmark analysis after 1 year, respectively. RESULTS: Three thousand and thirty-nine PLWHIV were included in the analysis. Over a median follow-up of 4.6 years (IQR 2.5-6.9), there was a mortality rate of 8.8%, with 50.4% of deaths occurring within 1 year. Predictors of early mortality included CD4 count < 50 cells/µL (HR 1.84, 95% CI 1.24-2.72, p < 0.01), WHO Stage III (HR 2.05, 95% CI 1.28-3.27, p < 0.01) or IV (HR 2.83, 95% CI 1.67-4.81, p < 0.01), and eGFR < 90 mL/min/1.73 m2 (HR 2.48, 95% CI 1.56-3.96, p < 0.01). Other than age (p < 0.01), only proteinuria (HR 2.12, 95% CI 1.12-4.01, p = 0.02) and diabetes mellitus (HR 3.51, 95% CI 1.32-9.32, p = 0.01) were associated with increased risk of late mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Traditional markers of mortality risk in patients commencing ART appear to be limited to early mortality. Proteinuria and diabetes are some of the few predictors of late mortality, and should be incorporated into routine screening of patients commencing ART.

Leveraging human resources for outbreak analysis: lessons from an international collaboration to support the sub-Saharan African COVID-19 response.

Emerging infectious diseases are a growing threat in sub-Saharan African countries, but the human and technical capacity to quickly respond to outbreaks remains limited. Here, we describe the experience and lessons learned from a joint project with the WHO Regional Office for Africa (WHO AFRO) to support the sub-Saharan African COVID-19 response.In June 2020, WHO AFRO contracted a number of consultants to reinforce the COVID-19 response in member states by providing actionable epidemiological analysis. Given the urgency of the situation and the magnitude of work required, we recruited a worldwide network of field experts, academics and students in the areas of public health, data science and social science to support the effort. Most analyses were performed on a merged line list of COVID-19 cases using a reverse engineering model (line listing built using data extracted from national situation reports shared by countries with the Regional Office for Africa as per the IHR (2005) obligations). The data analysis platform The Renku Project ( https://renkulab.io ) provided secure data storage and permitted collaborative coding.Over a period of 6 months, 63 contributors from 32 nations (including 17 African countries) participated in the project. A total of 45 in-depth country-specific epidemiological reports and data quality reports were prepared for 28 countries. Spatial transmission and mortality risk indices were developed for 23 countries. Text and video-based training modules were developed to integrate and mentor new members. The team also began to develop EpiGraph Hub, a web application that automates the generation of reports similar to those we created, and includes more advanced data analyses features (e.g. mathematical models, geospatial analyses) to deliver real-time, actionable results to decision-makers.Within a short period, we implemented a global collaborative approach to health data management and analyses to advance national responses to health emergencies and outbreaks. The interdisciplinary team, the hands-on training and mentoring, and the participation of local researchers were key to the success of this initiative.

Predictors of renal impairment and proteinuria after commencement of antiretroviral therapy in a Zimbabwean HIV cohort.

BACKGROUND: Renal disease prevalence varies widely amongst reported cohorts of people living with HIV (PLWHIV) in sub-Saharan Africa. Renal function testing is not routine in those commencing antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the region, however. Further data on renal disease prevalence and the change associated with ART use are therefore needed. AIM: To explore changes in renal function and associated predictors after 1 year of ART in an adult cohort of PLWHIV from Zimbabwe. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of patients who attended the Newlands Clinic between January 2007 and September 2019. Eligible patients were aged ≥18 years and had measures of serum creatinine at baseline and after 1 year of ART. Predictors of renal function change were assessed by multiple linear regression. RESULTS: 1729 patients were eligible for inclusion. Median age was 36 years (IQR 30-43) and 62.8% were female. After 1 year of ART, the proportion of patients with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 ml/min/1.732 did not significantly change (2.0% vs. 1.2%; p = 0.094), but there was a decrease in the proportion of patients with proteinuria (11.0% vs. 5.6%; p < 0.001). Hypertension (B = -6.43; 95% CI -8.97 to -3.89; p < 0.001) and baseline proteinuria (B = -7.33; 95% CI -10.25 to -4.42; p < 0.001) were negative predictors of change in eGFR from baseline, whereas diabetes status was not associated (p = 0.476). CONCLUSION: Proteinuria was common, but its prevalence halved after 1 year of ART. Screening for hypertension could be a simple way to identify patients at risk of renal function decline.

Brief Report: Validation of the D:A:D Chronic Kidney Disease Risk Score Incorporating Proteinuria in People Living With HIV in Harare, Zimbabwe.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to validate the D:A:D risk score for chronic kidney disease (CKD) in people living with HIV in a cohort from Harare, Zimbabwe. In addition, we aimed to evaluate proteinuria as a predictive variable in the risk score model, being the first study to do so. DESIGN: Data from people living with HIV attending a clinic in Harare were evaluated. Those with a baseline estimated the glomerular filtration rate >60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 , and at least 2 subsequent estimated glomerular filtration rate measurements were included. A modified version of the D:A:D risk score model was applied to categorize participants as "low," "medium," and "high-risk" of progression to CKD. Potential predictors of renal impairment were assessed by logistic regression in univariate and multivariate models. Proteinuria was evaluated in a nested model using D:A:D risk categories. RESULTS: Two thousand seven hundred ninety-three participants were included. Forty participants (1.4% of the cohort) progressed to CKD during the median follow-up time of 4.2 years. Progression rates were 1%, 3%, and 12% in the low, medium, and high-risk groups, respectively. Proteinuria data were available for 2251 participants. The presence of proteinuria was strongly associated with progression to CKD [(OR 7.8, 95% CI: 3.9 to 15.7), and its inclusion in the risk score improved the discrimination of the model with the c-statistic increasing from 0.658 to 0.853]. CONCLUSION: A modified version of the D:A:D CKD risk score performed well in predicting CKD events among this sub-Saharan African cohort of people living with HIV. Inclusion of proteinuria into the risk score model significantly improved predictability.

An in-depth statistical analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic's initial spread in the WHO African region.

During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, sub-Saharan African countries experienced comparatively lower rates of SARS-CoV-2 infections and related deaths than in other parts of the world, the reasons for which remain unclear. Yet, there was also considerable variation between countries. Here, we explored potential drivers of this variation among 46 of the 47 WHO African region Member States in a cross-sectional study. We described five indicators of early COVID-19 spread and severity for each country as of 29 November 2020: delay in detection of the first case, length of the early epidemic growth period, cumulative and peak attack rates and crude case fatality ratio (CFR). We tested the influence of 13 pre-pandemic and pandemic response predictor variables on the country-level variation in the spread and severity indicators using multivariate statistics and regression analysis. We found that wealthier African countries, with larger tourism industries and older populations, had higher peak (p<0.001) and cumulative (p<0.001) attack rates, and lower CFRs (p=0.021). More urbanised countries also had higher attack rates (p<0.001 for both indicators). Countries applying more stringent early control policies experienced greater delay in detection of the first case (p<0.001), but the initial propagation of the virus was slower in relatively wealthy, touristic African countries (p=0.023). Careful and early implementation of strict government policies were likely pivotal to delaying the initial phase of the pandemic, but did not have much impact on other indicators of spread and severity. An over-reliance on disruptive containment measures in more resource-limited contexts is neither effective nor sustainable. We thus urge decision-makers to prioritise the reduction of resource-based health disparities, and surveillance and response capacities in particular, to ensure global resilience against future threats to public health and economic stability.

COVID-19 pandemic in Africa's island nations during the first 9 months: a descriptive study of variation in patterns of infection, severe disease, and response measures.

The geographic and economic characteristics unique to island nations create a different set of conditions for, and responses to, the spread of a pandemic compared with those of mainland countries. Here, we aimed to describe the initial period of the COVID-19 pandemic, along with the potential conditions and responses affecting variation in the burden of infections and severe disease burden, across the six island nations of the WHO's Africa region: Cabo Verde, Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, São Tomé e Príncipe and Seychelles. We analysed the publicly available COVID-19 data on confirmed cases and deaths from the beginning of the pandemic through 29 November 2020. To understand variation in the course of the pandemic in these nations, we explored differences in their economic statuses, healthcare expenditures and facilities, age and sex distributions, leading health risk factors, densities of the overall and urban populations and the main industries in these countries. We also reviewed the non-pharmaceutical response measures implemented nationally. We found that the burden of SARS-CoV-2 infection was reduced by strict early limitations on movement and biased towards nations where detection capacity was higher, while the burden of severe COVID-19 was skewed towards countries that invested less in healthcare and those that had older populations and greater prevalence of key underlying health risk factors. These findings highlight the need for Africa's island nations to invest more in healthcare and in local testing capacity to reduce the need for reliance on border closures that have dire consequences for their economies.

Effect of antiretroviral therapy care interruptions on mortality in children living with HIV.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of HIV-infected children that have care interruptions, during which the child's health status and use of medication is unknown. DESIGN: We included data on children initiating ART between 2004 and 2016 at less than 16 years old at 16 International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS Southern Africa cohorts. Children were classified as loss to follow up (LTFU) if they had not attended clinic for more than 180 days. Children had a care interruption if they were classified as LTFU, and subsequently returned to care. Children who died within 180 days of ART start were excluded. METHODS: The main outcome was all cause mortality. Two exposed groups were considered: those with a first care interruption within the first 6 months on ART, and those with a first care interruption after 6 months on ART. Adjusted hazard ratios were determined using a Cox regression model. RESULTS: Among 53 674 children included, 23 437 (44%) had a care interruption, of which 10 629 (20%) had a first care interruption within 6 months on ART and 12 808 (24%) had a first care interruption after 6 months on ART. Increased mortality was associated with a care interruption within 6 months on ART [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 1.52, 95% CI 1.12-2.04] but not with a care interruption after 6 months on ART (AHR = 1.05, 95% CI 0.77-1.44). CONCLUSION: The findings suggest that strengthening retention of children in care in the early period after ART initiation is critical to improving paediatric ART outcomes.

Cancer incidence among people living with HIV in Zimbabwe: A record linkage study.

BACKGROUND: People living with HIV (PLWH) are at increased risk of developing cancer. Cancer diagnoses are often incompletely captured at antiretroviral therapy (ART) clinics. AIM: To estimate the incidence and explore risk factors of cancer in a cohort of PLWH in Harare using probabilistic record linkage (PRL). METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study that included PLWH aged ≥16 years starting ART between 2004 and 2017. We used PRL to match records from the Zimbabwe National Cancer Registry (ZNCR) with electronic medical records from an ART clinic in Harare to investigate the incidence of cancer among PLWH initiating ART. We matched records based on demographic data followed by manual clerical review. We followed PLWH up until first cancer diagnosis, death, loss to follow-up, or 31 December 2017, whichever came first. RESULTS: We included 3442 PLWH (64.9% female) with 19 346 person-years (PY) of follow-up. Median CD4 count at ART initiation was 169 cells/mm3 (interquartile range [IQR]: 82-275), median age was 36.6 years (IQR: 30.6-43.4). There were 66 incident cancer cases for an overall incidence rate of 341/100 000 PY (95% confidence interval [CI]: 268-434). Twenty-two of these cases were recorded in the ZNCR only. The most common cancers were cervical cancer (n = 16; 123/100 000 PY; 95% CI: 75-201), Kaposi sarcoma, and lymphoma (both n = 12; 62/100 000 PY; 95% CI: 35-109). Cancer incidence increased with age and decreased with higher CD4 cell counts at ART initiation. CONCLUSION: PRL was key to correct for cancer under-ascertainment in this cohort. The most common cancers were infection-related types, reinforcing the role of early HIV treatment, human papillomavirus vaccination, and cervical cancer screening for cancer prevention in this setting.

Renal function and associated mortality risk in adults commencing HIV antiretroviral therapy in Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: People with HIV (PWH) in sub-Saharan Africa appear to have a higher incidence of renal disease than other global regions but data are limited. This renal impairment may be associated with an increased mortality risk. AIMS: To define the prevalence of renal disease and explore its association with mortality risk in a cohort from Zimbabwe commencing antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV infection. METHODS: A retrospective study of all patients aged at least 18 years, commenced on ART for HIV infection at the Newlands Clinic in Harare, Zimbabwe between January 2007 and September 2019 was conducted. Data were extracted from electronic medical records. Patients with no baseline creatinine measurement were excluded. Baseline characteristics were assessed as potential predictors for mortality by Cox proportional hazard regression. RESULTS: Three thousand and thirty-nine patients were eligible for inclusion. Most were female (62.1%), with a median age of 36 years (IQR 30-43). At baseline, 7.3% had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 90 ml/min per 1.73 m2 or less and 11.4% had proteinuria. Over a median follow-up period of 4.6 years (IQR 2.5-6.9), the mortality rate was 8.7%. One half of deaths (49.2%) occurred within the first year. In multivariable analysis, a baseline eGFR between 60 and 90 ml/min per 1.73 m2 [hazard ratio 2.22, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.46-3.33, P < 0.001] and proteinuria (hazard ratio 2.10, 95% CI 1.35-3.27, P < 0.001) were associated with increased mortality risk. CONCLUSION: Baseline renal impairment was common. Both a reduced eGFR or proteinuria were independently associated with a doubling of mortality risk. These should serve as markers in the clinical setting of at-risk patients.