Epidemiological characteristics of the carriers with coexistence of HBsAg and anti-HBs based on a community cohort study.

The coexistence of HBsAg and anti-HBs is an atypical serological pattern in HBV infection. There is no epidemiological characteristics of this serological pattern in the community and there is controversy over the molecular mechanisms underlying this pattern. We investigated the epidemiological characteristics of the carriers with HBsAg and anti-HBs in a longitudinal community cohort study. The prevalence of this atypical serological pattern was 2.93% (122/4169) in HBsAg-positive populations. The prevalence progressively increased with age from 40 to 70 years old. The rate of HBeAg positive and detectable HBV DNA were both significantly higher in carriers with this pattern than in carriers who were HBsAg positive but anti-HBs negative (26/122 verse 598/4047, P = 0.046; 86/122 verse 275/529,P < 0.001). After 1 year of follow-up, 85.19% of the carriers still had coexistence HBsAg and anti-HBs, 14.81% of the carriers lost their anti-HBs. Viral sequencing showed that carriers with coexistence of HBsAg and anti-HBs had higher numbers of residue changes within the S gene than carriers who were HBsAg positive but anti-HBs negative (2.42 verse 1.33 changes per 100 residues, P < 0.05). Hence, the coexistence of HBsAg and anti-HBs is a unique serological pattern which may be associated with an increased risk of adverse clinical outcome and may be related to HBsAg immune variants which have genotypic heterogeneity.

Status Report--Retracing the history of the early development of national chronic disease surveillance in Canada and the major role of the Laboratory Centre for Disease Control (LCDC) from 1972 to 2000.

TITRE: Rapport d'étape - Historique des débuts de la surveillance nationale des maladies chroniques au Canada et rôle majeur du Laboratoire de lutte contre la maladie (LLCM) de 1972 à 2000. INTRODUCTION: La surveillance de la santé consiste en l'utilisation systématique et continue de données sur la santé recueillies régulièrement en vue d'orienter les mesures de santé publique en temps opportun. Ce document décrit la création et l'essor des systèmes nationaux de surveillance au Canada et les répercussions de ces systèmes sur la prévention des maladies chroniques et des blessures. En 2008, les auteurs ont commencé à retracer l'historique des débuts de la surveillance nationale des maladies chroniques au Canada, en commençant à 1960, et ils ont poursuivi leur examen jusqu'en 2000. Une publication de 1967 a retracé l'historique de la création du Laboratoire d'hygiène de 1921 à 1967. Notre étude fait suite à cette publication et décrit l'historique de l'établissement de la surveillance nationale des maladies chroniques au Canada, à la fois avant et après la création du Laboratoire de lutte contre la maladie (LCDC).

The Association between Obesity and Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies from 1985 to 2011.

Background. Cancer and cardiovascular diseases are the leading causes of mortality and morbidity worldwide. The purpose of this meta-analysis is to synthesize the evidence evaluating the association between obesity and 13 cancers shown previously to be significantly associated with obesity. Methods. Relevant papers from a previously conducted review were included in this paper. In addition, database searches of Medline and Embase identified studies published from the date of the search conducted for the previous review (January, 2007) until May, 2011. The reference lists of relevant studies and systematic reviews were screened to identify additional studies. Relevance assessment, quality assessment, and data extraction for each study were conducted by two reviewers independently. Meta-analysis was performed for men and women separately using DerSimonian and Laird's random effects model. Results. A total of 98 studies conducted in 18 countries from 1985 to 2011 were included. Data extraction was completed on the 57 studies judged to be of strong and moderate methodological quality. Results illustrated that obese men were at higher risk for developing colon (Risk Ratio (RR), 1.57), renal (1.57), gallbladder (1.47), pancreatic (1.36), and malignant melanoma cancers (1.26). Obese women were at higher risk for esophageal adenocarcinoma (2.04), endometrial (1.85), gallbladder (1.82), renal (1.72), pancreatic (1.34), leukemia (1.32), postmenopausal breast (1.25), and colon cancers (1.19). Conclusions. The results of this meta-analysis illustrate a significant, positive, and, for some cancers, strong association between obesity and cancer incidence. Given that approximately 23% of Canadians are obese, a significant proportion of cancer in Canada could be avoided if obesity was eliminated or significantly reduced.

Surveillance of trend and distribution of stroke mortality by subtype, age, gender, and geographic areas in Tianjin, China, 1999-2006.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to analyze the epidemiological trend and distribution of stroke mortality in the city of Tianjin, China, in order to provide evidence for the prevention and control of stroke. METHODS: The study was based on 102 718 cases of stroke mortality in Tianjin between 1999 and 2006. The cause of death was coded according to the International Classification of Diseases into stroke subtypes. Standardized mortality rates were calculated for stroke and its subtypes, adjusted for age and gender using the year 2000 world standard population. The age, gender, and geographic distribution of stroke and subtype mortality were analyzed. chi2-tests were used to determine the statistical significance of differences in mortality trends. RESULTS: The stroke mortality rate in Tianjin declined from 133.52/100 000/year in 1999 to 102.52/100 000/year in 2006. The stroke mortality rate for males was higher than that for females. Stroke mortality rates increased with increasing age. The subtypes of stroke have changed considerably in Tianjin. Hemorrhagic was major in 1999-2001, while cerebral infarction attained the first rank and accounted for more than 50% of stroke mortality in 2002-2006. The most pronounced finding was that the proportion of ischemic stroke was 66.65% in the urban population and over 20% higher than that in the rural area. Stroke in the suburban area was mainly hemorrhagic stroke, up to 62.67%. CONCLUSIONS: There are significant differences in the distribution of stroke mortality by subtype, age, gender, and geographic areas in Tianjin, China. Various subtypes of stroke are associated with different risk factors and therefore require different public health prevention and control measures. This study provides pertinent information for formulation of measures for the prevention and control of stroke.

Grading of evidence of the effectiveness of health promotion interventions.

AIMS: Grading of evidence of the effectiveness of health promotion interventions remains a priority to the practise of evidence-based health promotion. Several authors propose grading the strength of evidence based on a hierarchy: convincing, probable, possible and insufficient; or strong, moderate, limited and no evidence. Although these grading hierarchies provide simple and straightforward rankings, the terms that describe the categories in the hierarchies, however, do not explain, in an explicit manner, in what way the strength of the evidence in one category is more, or less, superior than that in another. METHODS: To enhance the explanatory power of the hierarchy, we propose that evidence be classified into three grades, each with a short explanatory note on the basis of three criteria: the degree of association between the intervention under study and the outcome factors, the consistency of the findings from different studies, and whether there is a known cause-effect mechanism for the intervention under study and the outcome factors. CONCLUSION: For more in-depth grading, a three-grade expanded hierarchy is also recommended. Examples are given to illustrate our proposed grading schemes.

Finding the real case-fatality rate of H5N1 avian influenza.

BACKGROUND: Accurate estimation of the case-fatality (CF) rate, or the proportion of cases that die, is central to pandemic planning. While estimates of CF rates for past influenza pandemics have ranged from about 0.1% (1957 and 1968 pandemics) to 2.5% (1918 pandemic), the official World Health Organization estimate for the current outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza to date is around 60%. METHODS AND RESULTS: The official estimate of the H5N1 CF rate has been described by some as an over-estimate, with little relevance to the rate that would be encountered under pandemic conditions. The reasons for such opinions are typically: (i) numerous undetected asymptomatic/mild cases, (ii) under-reporting of cases by some countries for economic or other reasons, and (iii) an expected decrease in virulence if and when the virus becomes widely transmitted in humans. Neither current data nor current literature, however, adequately supports these scenarios. While the real H5N1 CF rate could be lower than the current estimate of 60%, it is unlikely that it will be at the 0.1-0.4% level currently embraced by many pandemic plans. We suggest that, based on surveillance and seroprevalence studies conducted in several countries, the real H5N1 CF rate should be closer to 14-33%. CONCLUSIONS: Clearly, if such a CF rate were to be sustained in a pandemic, H5N1 would present a truly dreadful scenario. A concerted and dedicated effort by the international community to avert a pandemic through combating avian influenza in animals and humans in affected countries needs to be a global priority.

Enhancing global capacity in the surveillance, prevention, and control of chronic diseases: seven themes to consider and build upon.

BACKGROUND: Chronic diseases are now a major health problem in developing countries as well as in the developed world. Although chronic diseases cannot be communicated from person to person, their risk factors (for example, smoking, inactivity, dietary habits) are readily transferred around the world. With increasing human progress and technological advance, the pandemic of chronic diseases will become an even bigger threat to global health. METHODS: Based on our experiences and publications as well as review of the literature, we contribute ideas and working examples that might help enhance global capacity in the surveillance of chronic diseases and their prevention and control. Innovative ideas and solutions were actively sought. RESULTS: Ideas and working examples to help enhance global capacity were grouped under seven themes, concisely summarised by the acronym "SCIENCE": Strategy, Collaboration, Information, Education, Novelty, Communication and Evaluation. CONCLUSION: Building a basis for action using the seven themes articulated, especially by incorporating innovative ideas, we presented here, can help enhance global capacity in chronic disease surveillance, prevention and control. Informed initiatives can help achieve the new World Health Organization global goal of reducing chronic disease death rates by 2% annually, generate new ideas for effective interventions and ultimately bring global chronic diseases under greater control.

Influenza-related deaths and hospitalizations in Hong Kong: a subtropical area.

BACKGROUND: While influenza vaccination has been widely used in developed countries to reduce mortality and morbidity in high-risk populations, the lack of regional data on the health burden of influenza and the uncertainty of the applicability of data from temperate areas have been major impediments to establishing an evidence-based policy on the wider use of influenza vaccine in tropical and subtropical regions of the world. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to estimate the annual excess deaths and hospitalizations related to influenza in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) for the years 1999 and 2000. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Correlation and regression models were used to estimate the excess deaths and hospitalizations related to influenza in the general population of HKSAR for the years 1999 and 2000, using routinely collected mortality and hospitalization data, and virological laboratory data collected by the HKSAR Influenza Surveillance System. RESULTS: The annual mean excess numbers of deaths related to influenza in Hong Kong were estimated to be 613 for pneumonia and influenza, and 2302 for respiratory and circulatory diseases. The mean excess numbers of hospitalizations attributable to influenza were 4051 for pneumonia and influenza, and 15,873 for respiratory and circulatory diseases. The crude influenza-related mortality and hospitalization rates in Hong Kong, a subtropical area, exceeded those documented in temperate regions. CONCLUSIONS: The finding of significant mortality and morbidity related to influenza in a subtropical area is in accordance with the results of previous studies in tropical and subtropical regions. This simple methodology can be used for the development of influenza immunization policy in many developing countries in tropical and subtropical regions. The enormous potential of influenza vaccination in saving lives and reducing suffering warrants serious consideration of the expanded use of influenza vaccine in tropical and subtropical regions.

A simple approximate mathematical model to predict the number of severe acute respiratory syndrome cases and deaths.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is currently spreading in many countries. This paper proposes a simple approximate mathematical model for public health practitioners to predict the number of SARS cases and deaths. METHODS: The model is based on four parameters: R(o) (basic reproductive number), F (case-fatality rate), i (incubation period), and d (duration of disease). The calculations can be done by hand or by using a computer spreadsheet. RESULTS: The best parameters to fit Canadian data as of 6 April 2003 (before infection controls took effect) are R(o) = 1.5, F = 30%, i = 5 days, d = 14 days. On 6 April (day 40) there were 74 cases and 7 deaths. If this trend continues, SARS numbers in Canada are predicted to be as follows: 387 cases and 34 deaths by 26 April (day 60), 4432 cases and 394 deaths by 26 May (day 90), and 50 500 cases and 4489 deaths by 25 June (day 120). By comparison, the best parameters to fit Hong Kong data as of 10 April 2003 are R(o) = 2.0, F = 20%, i = 5 days, d = 14 days. CONCLUSIONS: Using the proposed mathematical model, it was estimated that about 1.5 to 2 new infectious cases were produced per infectious case every five days. Also, about 20% to 30% of the cases die within 14 days. The case-fatality may therefore be considerably higher than initially thought. The model indicates that SARS can spread very fast when there are no interventions.