Limited Generalizability of Retrospective Single-Center Cohort Study in Comparison to Multicenter Cohort Study on Prognosis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Introduction: We aimed to evaluate the generalizability of retrospective single-center cohort studies on prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) by comparing overall survival (OS) after various treatments between a nationwide multicenter cohort and a single-center cohort of HCC patients. Methods: Patients newly diagnosed with HCC between January 2008 and December 2018 were analyzed using data from the Korean Primary Liver Cancer Registry (multicenter cohort, n=16,443), and the Asan Medical Center HCC registry (single-center cohort, n=15,655). The primary outcome, OS after initial treatment, was compared between the two cohorts for both the entire population and for subcohorts with Child-Pugh A liver function (n=2797 and n=5151, respectively) treated according to the Barcelona-Clinic-Liver-Cancer (BCLC) strategy, using Log rank test and Cox proportional hazard models. Results: Patients of BCLC stages 0 and A (59.3% vs 35.2%) and patients who received curative treatment (42.1% vs 32.1%) were more frequently observed in the single-center cohort (Ps<0.001). Multivariable analysis revealed significant differences between the two cohorts in OS according to type of treatment: the multicenter cohort was associated with higher risk of mortality among patients who received curative (adjusted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval], 1.48 [1.39-1.59]) and non-curative (1.22 [1.17-1.27]) treatments, whereas the risk was lower in patients treated with systemic therapy (0.83 [0.74-0.92]) and best supportive care (0.85 [0.79-0.91]). Subcohort analysis also demonstrated significantly different OS between the two cohorts, with a higher risk of mortality in multicenter cohort patients who received chemoembolization (1.72 [1.48-2.00]) and ablation (1.44 [1.08-1.92]). Conclusion: Comparisons of single-center and multicenter cohorts of HCC patients revealed significant differences in OS according to treatment modality after adjustment for prognostic variables. Therefore, the results of retrospective single-center cohort studies of HCC treatments may not be generalizable to real-world practice.

Increased risk of fragility fractures in patients with primary biliary cholangitis.

Large-scale studies on the risk of fragility fractures in patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) are limited due to low incidence. We aimed to investigate whether PBC is associated with fragility fractures using real-world nationwide data. The Korean National Health Insurance Service claims data from 2007 to 2020 were analyzed in this population-based cohort study. Patients with PBC (n = 4951) were matched with controls (n = 19 793) using a 1:4 ratio based on age, sex, and follow-up duration. The primary outcome was fragility fracture, which comprised fractures of the vertebra, hip, distal radius, and proximal humerus. The incidence rates (IRs) and hazard ratios (HRs) were determined to assess the impact of PBC on fragility fractures. During the median follow-up period of 5.37 years, 524 patients in the PBC group had fragility fractures (IR, 18.59/1000 person-years [PYs]). After adjusting for covariates, PBC increased the risk of fragility fractures by 1.63-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.20-2.22; P = .002). The vertebra and hip were particularly susceptible to fracture in patients with PBC, with adjusted HRs of 1.77 and 2.23, respectively. In the subgroup analysis, the risk of fragility fracture was 2.53-fold higher in men and 1.59-fold higher in women with PBC than that in the respective matched control groups. Considering the morbidity and mortality related to fragility fractures, increasing awareness of fragility fracture risk and implementing appropriate preventive measures in patients with PBC are imperative.

Revisiting the steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator score in young Asian subjects with steatotic liver disease and consideration for population variability.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator (SAFE) score has been developed to distinguish clinically significant fibrosis in patients with steatotic liver disease (SLD). However, validation of its performance in Asian subjects is limited. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the SAFE score in Asian subjects with biopsy-proven SLD and in different subgroups according to age, sex, and body mass index. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 6383 living liver donors who underwent a liver biopsy between 2005 and 2023. Of these, 1551 subjects with biopsy-proven SLD were included. The performance of the SAFE score was evaluated using areas under the curve and compared with those of the nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (NFS) and fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4). RESULTS: The prevalence of clinically significant fibrosis in the cohort was 2.2%. The proportion of subjects with a "low-risk" SAFE score was the highest (91.0%), followed by those with "intermediate-risk" (7.8%) and "high-risk" (1.2%) scores. The prevalence of fibrosis in subjects with low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk scores was 1.6%, 6.6%, and 21.1%, respectively. The SAFE outperformed FIB-4 and NFS (area under the curve: 0.70 vs 0.64 for both NFS and FIB-4). However, it showed low diagnostic accuracy and sensitivity (27%) at the low cutoff (SAFE < 0) in subjects aged 30-39 years (fibrosis: 1.2%), despite having a high negative predictive value (0.99). CONCLUSION: While the SAFE score demonstrates superior performance compared with other noninvasive tests in Asian subjects with SLD, its performance varies across age groups. In younger subjects, particularly, its performance may be more limited.

Dynamic liver volume change in predicting hepatic decompensation and long-term effects of stereotactic body radiation therapy.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: This study aimed to investigate the association between liver volume change and hepatic decompensation and compare the risk of hepatic decompensation in patients with liver cirrhosis (LC) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who underwent stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). METHODS: A retrospective review of SBRT-treated HCC and compensated LC without HCC patients was conducted. Liver volume was measured using auto-segmentation software on liver dynamic computed tomography scans. The decompensation event was defined as the first occurrence of refractory ascites, esophageal variceal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, or spontaneous bacterial peritonitis. We evaluated the association between the rate of liver volume decrease and hepatic decompensation and compared decompensation events between the SBRT and LC cohorts using propensity score matching. RESULTS: A total of 138 patients from the SBRT cohort and 488 from the LC cohort were analyzed. The rate of liver volume decrease was associated with the risk of decompensation events in both cohorts. The 3-year rate of decompensation events was significantly higher in the group with a liver volume decreasing rate > 7%/year compared with the group with a rate < 7%/year. In the propensity score-matched cohort, the 3-year rate of decompensation events after a single session of SBRT was not significantly different from that in the LC cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The rate of liver volume decrease was significantly associated with the risk of hepatic decompensation in both HCC patients who received SBRT and LC patients. A single session of SBRT for HCC did not result in a higher decompensation rate compared with LC.

Clinical and Radiologic Predictors of Response to Atezolizumab-Bevacizumab in Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Purpose: This study aimed to identify clinical and radiologic characteristics that could predict response to atezolizumab-bevacizumab combination therapy in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Materials and Methods: This single-center retrospective study included 108 advanced HCC patients with intrahepatic lesions who were treated with atezolizumab-bevacizumab. Two radiologists independently analyzed Imaging characteristics of the index tumor on pretreatment computed tomography. Predictive factors associated with progressive disease (PD) at the best response based on Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors, Version 1.1 were evaluated using logistic regression analysis. Progression-free survival (PFS) was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and compared with the log-rank test. Results: Of 108 patients with a median PFS of 15 weeks, 40 (37.0%) had PD during treatment. Factors associated with PD included the presence of extrahepatic metastases (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 4.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.19-14.35; p=0.03), the infiltrative appearance of the tumor (aOR, 3.07; 95% CI, 1.05-8.93; p=0.04), and the absence of arterial phase hyperenhancement (APHE) (aOR, 6.34; 95% CI, 2.18-18.47; p<0.001). Patients with two or more of these factors had a PD of 66.7% and a median PFS of 8 weeks, indicating a significantly worse outcome compared to the patients with one or no of these factors. Conclusion: In patients with advanced HCC treated with atezolizumab-bevacizumab treatment, the absence of APHE, infiltrative appearance of the intrahepatic tumor, and presence of extrahepatic metastases were associated with poor response and survival. Evaluation of early response may be necessary in patients with these factors.

Updated Reference Intervals for Alanine Aminotransferase in a Metabolically and Histologically Normal Population.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: This study aims to reevaluate upper reference limit (URL) for alanine aminotransferase (ALT) by considering the changing epidemiology of major liver diseases. We employed histological and metabolic parameters in Asian living liver donors. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of 5455 potential living liver donors from 2005 to 2019. Participants were screened for hepatitis B, C, HIV, and alcohol use. Histologically and metabolically healthy participants were assessed using the Prati criteria (body mass index <23 kg/m2, triglyceride ≤200 mg/dL, fasting glucose ≤105 mg/dL, total cholesterol ≤220 mg/dL). The updated ALT-URL was determined as the 95th percentile among participants without hepatic steatosis and who met the Prati criteria. RESULTS: The median age was 30 years, with a male predominance (66.2%). Among 5455 participants, 3162 (58.0%) showed no hepatic steatosis, with 1553 (49.1%) meeting both the criteria for no steatosis and the Prati criteria for metabolic health. The updated URL for ALT in these participants was 34 U/L for males and 22 U/L for females, which was significantly lower than conventionally accepted values. Using this revised ALT-URL, 72.8% of males with ALT levels ≥34 U/L and 55.0% of females with ALT levels ≥22 U/L showed signs of steatosis, whereas 32.7% of males and 22.2% of females met the criteria for metabolic syndrome. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provided the newly established reference intervals for ALT levels in a metabolically and histologically verified Asian population. The proposed URL for ALT are 34 U/L and 22 U/L for males and females, respectively.

Outcomes of Liver Resection and Transarterial Chemoembolization in Patients with Multinodular BCLC-A Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Background: This study aimed to compare the outcomes of liver resection (LR) and transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in patients with multinodular hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) within the Milan criteria who were not eligible for liver transplantation. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 483 patients with multinodular HCC within the Milan criteria, who underwent either LR or TACE as an initial therapy between 2013 and 2022. The overall survival (OS) in the entire population and recurrence-free survival (RFS) in patients who underwent LR and TACE and achieved a complete response were analyzed. Propensity score (PS) matching analysis was also used for a fair comparison of outcomes between the two groups. Results: Among the 483 patients, 107 (22.2%) and 376 (77.8%) underwent LR and TACE, respectively. The median size of the largest tumor was 2.0 cm, and 72.3% of the patients had two HCC lesions. The median OS and RFS were significantly longer in the LR group than in the TACE group (p <0.01 for both). In the multivariate analysis, TACE (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.81 and aHR, 2.41) and large tumor size (aHR, 1.43 and aHR, 1.44) were significantly associated with worse OS and RFS, respectively. The PS-matched analysis also demonstrated that the LR group had significantly longer OS and RFS than the TACE group (PS <0.05). Conclusion: In this study, LR showed better OS and RFS than TACE in patients with multinodular Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage A HCC. Therefore, LR can be considered an effective treatment option for these patients.

The associations between fibrosis changes and liver-related events in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.

BACKGROUND: The prognosis of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is associated with liver fibrosis. We investigated the associations between changes in liver stiffness measurement (LSM) over 3-year period and the development of cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with MASLD. METHODS: This study involved patients with MASLD who underwent transient elastography at baseline and 3 years after baseline from 2012 to 2020. Low (L), indeterminate (I) and high (H) LSM values were classified as <8 kPa, 8-12 kPa and >12 kPa respectively. RESULTS: Among 1738 patients, 150 (8.6%) were diagnosed with cirrhosis or HCC. The proportions of patients with L, I and H risk were 69.7%, 19.9% and 10.5% at baseline, and 78.8%, 12.8% and 8.4% at 3 years after baseline, respectively. The incidence rates of cirrhosis or HCC per 1000 person-years were 3.7 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.4-5.5) in the L → L + I group, 23.9 (95% CI, 17.1-32.6) in the I → L + I group, 38.3 (95% CI, 22.3-61.3) in the H → L + I group, 62.5 (95% CI, 32.3-109.2) in the I → H group, 67.8 (95% CI, 18.5-173.6) in the L → H group and 93.9 (95% CI 70.1-123.1) in the H → H group. Two risk factors for the development of cirrhosis or HCC were LSM changes and low platelet counts. CONCLUSION: LSM changes could predict clinical outcomes in patients with MASLD. Thus, it is important to monitor changes in the fibrotic burden by regular assessment of LSM values.

CAMP-B score predicts the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B after HBsAg seroclearance.

BACKGROUND: Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) persists after hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). AIMS: To identify risk factors and construct a predictive model for HCC development. METHODS: We retrospectively analysed patients with CHB with HBsAg seroclearance. Primary outcome was HCC development. Factors identified from a multivariate Cox model in the training cohort, consisting of 3476 patients from two Korean hospitals, were used to construct the prediction model. External validation was performed using data from 5255 patients in Hong Kong. RESULTS: In the training cohort, HCC occurred in 102 patients during 24,019 person-years of observation (0.43%/year). Risk scores were assigned to cirrhosis (C:3), age ≥50 years (A:2), male sex (M:3) and platelet count <150,000/mm3 (P:1); all were independently associated with an increased risk of HCC in multivariate analysis The time-dependent area under receiver operating characteristic curves for 5, 10 and 15 years in the training and validation cohorts were 0.782, 0.817 and 0.825 and 0.785, 0.771 and 0.796, respectively. In the validation cohort, 85 patients developed HCC (0.24%/year). The corresponding incidence of HCC in the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups were 0.07%, 0.37% and 0.90%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The CAMP-B score (cirrhosis, age ≥50 years, male sex and platelet count <150,000/mm3/L) was significantly associated with HCC development after HBsAg seroclearance. CAMP-B score can be easily implemented in real-world clinical practice and helps stratify HCC risk in patients with CHB following HBsAg seroclearance.

Improving the hepatitis C virus care cascade with the in-hospital Reflex tEsting ALarm-C (REAL-C) model.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) has set targets to eliminate viral hepatitis, including hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, by 2030. We present the results of the in-hospital Reflex tEsting ALarm-C (REAL-C) model, which incorporates reflex HCV RNA testing and sending alerts to physicians. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study analysing the data of 1730 patients who newly tested positive for anti-HCV between March 2020 and June 2023. Three distinct periods were defined: pre-REAL-C (n = 696), incomplete REAL-C (n = 515) and complete REAL-C model periods (n = 519). The primary outcome measure was the HCV RNA testing rate throughout the study period. Additionally, we assessed the referral rate to the gastroenterology department, linkage time for diagnosis and treatment and the treatment rate. RESULTS: The rate of HCV RNA testing increased significantly from 51.0% (pre-REAL-C) to 95.6% (complete REAL-C). This improvement was consistent across clinical departments, regardless of patients' comorbidities. Among patients with confirmed HCV infection, the gastroenterology referral rate increased from 57.1% to 81.1% after the REAL-C model. The treatment rate among treatment-eligible patients was 92.4% during the study period. The mean interval from anti-HCV positivity to HCV RNA testing decreased from 45.1 to 1.9 days. The mean interval from the detection of anti-HCV positivity to direct-acting antiviral treatment also decreased from 89.5 to 49.5 days with the REAL-C model. CONCLUSION: The REAL-C model, featuring reflex testing and physician alerts, effectively increased HCV RNA testing rates and streamlined care cascades. Our model facilitated progress towards achieving WHO's elimination goals for HCV infection.

Response to atezolizumab plus bevacizumab specific for lung and lymph node metastases affects survival of patients with HCC.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Tumour microenvironment heterogeneity among different organs can influence immunotherapy responses. Here, we evaluated the impact of differential organ-specific responses on survival in patients with advanced-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (Atezo/Bev). METHODS: We retrospectively analysed 366 consecutive patients with advanced-stage HCC treated with Atezo/Bev as first-line systemic treatment. Therapeutic response was assessed using RECIST v1.1. Patients were divided into an intention-to-treat (ITT) group (patients treated with ≥1 dose of Atezo/Bev) and a per-protocol (PP) analysis group (patients with at least one measurable lesion irrespective of location treated with ≥3 doses of Atezo/Bev). Overall response and organ-specific response at initial and best response were evaluated in the PP group. Responders were defined as patients achieving complete remission or partial response. Initial progressors were defined as patients with progressive disease after three doses of Atezo/Bev. RESULTS: The ITT and PP groups comprised 324 and 236 patients, respectively. In the PP group, the organ-specific response rate of lung and lymph node (LN) metastases at both initial and best responses were higher than those of intrahepatic lesions and macrovascular tumour thrombosis. Lung and LN-specific response rates were 21.1% and 23.5%, respectively, at initial response, and 24.7% and 31.4%, respectively, at best response. Both initial pulmonary and lymphatic progressors (adjusted hazard ratios [95% confidence intervals], 6.37 [2.10-19.3], and 8.36 [2.16-32.4], respectively) were independently associated with survival regardless of intrahepatic response. CONCLUSIONS: The response of metastatic HCC to the Atezo/Bev regimen may be used to determine whether to continue treatment or switch to second-line treatment at an early phase of therapy.

Machine learning-based clinical decision support system for treatment recommendation and overall survival prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma: a multi-center study.

The treatment decisions for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma are determined by a wide range of factors, and there is a significant difference between the recommendations of widely used staging systems and the actual initial treatment choices. Herein, we propose a machine learning-based clinical decision support system suitable for use in multi-center settings. We collected data from nine institutions in South Korea for training and validation datasets. The internal and external datasets included 935 and 1750 patients, respectively. We developed a model with 20 clinical variables consisting of two stages: the first stage which recommends initial treatment using an ensemble voting machine, and the second stage, which predicts post-treatment survival using a random survival forest algorithm. We derived the first and second treatment options from the results with the highest and the second-highest probabilities given by the ensemble model and predicted their post-treatment survival. When only the first treatment option was accepted, the mean accuracy of treatment recommendation in the internal and external datasets was 67.27% and 55.34%, respectively. The accuracy increased to 87.27% and 86.06%, respectively, when the second option was included as the correct answer. Harrell's C index, integrated time-dependent AUC curve, and integrated Brier score of survival prediction in the internal and external datasets were 0.8381 and 0.7767, 91.89 and 86.48, 0.12, and 0.14, respectively. The proposed system can assist physicians by providing data-driven predictions for reference from other larger institutions or other physicians within the same institution when making treatment decisions.

Increased Risk of Osteoporotic Fracture in Patients With Autoimmune Hepatitis.

INTRODUCTION: Few large-scale studies have been published regarding the association between autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) and risk of osteoporotic fracture. This study aimed to determine the risk of developing an osteoporotic fracture in patients with AIH. METHODS: We used claims data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service between 2007 and 2020. Patients with AIH (n = 7,062) were matched with controls (n = 28,122) based on age, sex, and duration of follow-up using a ratio of 1:4. Osteoporotic fractures included fractures of the vertebrae, hip, distal radius, and proximal humerus. The incidence rate (IR) and IR ratio of osteoporotic fracture were compared between the 2 groups, and their associated factors were evaluated. RESULTS: During a median follow-up period of 5.4 years, 712 osteoporotic fractures occurred in patients with AIH with an IR of 17.5 per 1,000 person-years. Patients with AIH had a significantly higher risk of osteoporotic fractures than matched controls, with an IR ratio of 1.24 (95% confidence intervals, 1.10-1.39, P < 0.01) in the multivariable analysis. Female sex, older age, history of stroke, presence of cirrhosis, and use of glucocorticoids were associated with an increased risk of osteoporotic fractures. In the 2-year landmark analysis, longer duration of glucocorticoid exposure was associated with an incremental increased risk of osteoporotic fracture. DISCUSSION: Patients with AIH had an increased risk of osteoporotic fracture compared with controls. The presence of cirrhosis and long-term use of glucocorticoids further adversely affected osteoporotic fracture in patients with AIH.

Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in Korean Patients after Hepatitis C Cure with Direct-Acting Antivirals.

Background/Aims: With the wide application of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for hepatitis C virus infection, the number of patients achieving a sustained virologic response (SVR) will continue to increase. However, no consensus has been achieved on exempting SVR-achieving patients from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance. Methods: Between 2013 and 2021, 873 Korean patients who achieved SVR following DAA treatment were analyzed. We evaluated the predictive performance of seven noninvasive scores (PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B, Toronto HCC risk index, fibrosis-4, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, albumin-bilirubin, and age male albumin-bilirubin platelet [aMAP]) at baseline and after SVR. Results: The mean age of the 873 patients (39.3% males) was 59.1 years, and 224 patients (25.7%) had cirrhosis. During 3,542 person-years of follow-up, 44 patients developed HCC, with an annual incidence of 1.24/100 person-years. Male sex (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 2.21), cirrhosis (AHR, 7.93), and older age (AHR, 1.05) were associated with a significantly higher HCC risk in multivariate analysis. The performance of all scores at the time of SVR were numerically better than those at baseline as determined by the integrated area under the curve. Time-dependent area under the curves for predicting the 3-, 5-, and 7-year risk of HCC after SVR were higher in mPAGE-B (0.778, 0.746, and 0.812, respectively) and aMAP (0.776, 0.747, and 0.790, respectively) systems than others. No patients predicted as low-risk by the aMAP or mPAGE-B systems developed HCC. Conclusions: aMAP and mPAGE-B scores demonstrated the highest predictive performance for de novo HCC in DAA-treated, SVR-achieving patients. Hence, these two systems may be used to identify low-risk patients that can be exempted from HCC surveillance.

Non-linear association of baseline viral load with on-treatment hepatocellular carcinoma risk in chronic hepatitis B.

OBJECTIVE: The association between baseline pretreatment serum HBV DNA levels and on-treatment hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk remains controversial in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We aimed to investigate the association between baseline HBV viral load and on-treatment HCC risk in CHB patients without cirrhosis. DESIGN: Using a multicentre historical cohort study including 4693 hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative and HBeAg-positive, adult CHB patients without cirrhosis who initiated antiviral treatment, HCC risk was estimated by baseline HBV viral load as a categorical variable. RESULTS: During a median of 7.6 years of antiviral treatment, 193 patients developed HCC (0.53 per 100 person- years). Baseline HBV DNA level was independently associated with on-treatment HCC risk in a non-linear, parabolic pattern. Patients with moderate baseline viral loads (5.00-7.99 log10 IU/mL) exhibited the highest HCC risk (HR, 2.60; p<0.001), followed by those with low viral loads (3.30-4.99 log10 IU/mL; HR, 1.66; p=0.11). Patients with high viral loads (≥8.00 log10 IU/mL) presented the lowest HCC risk. Particularly, patients with baseline HBV DNA levels 6.00-6.99 log10 IU/mL had the highest on-treatment HCC risk (HR, 3.36; p<0.001) compared with those with baseline HBV DNA levels≥8.00 log10 IU/mL. These findings were more prominent among HBeAg-positive patients, younger patients, or those with less advanced hepatic fibrosis. CONCLUSION: Patients with moderate baseline viral load, particularly around 6 log10 IU/mL, demonstrated the highest on-treatment HCC risk, despite long-term antiviral treatment. Early initiation of antiviral treatment, tailored to viral load, should be considered to minimise HCC risk in adult CHB patients without cirrhosis.