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BACKGROUND: Surgical resection is a curative therapy for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients meeting the Milan criteria as well as a widely used therapy in intermediate-stage HCC. However, intermediate-stage HCC encompasses a wide spectrum of disease and there is a lack of good predictive models for the long-term clinical outcome of HCC patients currently. Here, we adopt Mazzaferro's Metroticket 2.0 to create a robust survival prediction model for intermediate-stage HCC patients undergoing surgical resection. Our algorithm considers age, AFP levels, ALBI score, and nodule size/number to generate survival estimates in an accessible graph format. Importantly, our model surpasses the American Joint Committee on Cancer staging model and was validated with independent US patient data. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of OS and RFS in early- and intermediate-stage HCC patients treated with liver resection, including a training cohort in Singapore and a validation cohort in North Carolina, USA. RESULTS: We recorded 278 deaths (35.0%) and 428 patients (53.9%) in the first 5-years after surgical resection; higher ALBI score, higher lnAFP, more advanced age and higher tumour burden index were identified as significant parameters. The overall predictive capability of our model, with the inclusion of AFP, is reflected with a UNO's C-statistic of 0.655, which is 1.11 times better than the 0.5895 C-statistic of the 8th AJCC TNM Staging model. CONCLUSIONS: Our modified Metroticket model allows for more granular and better-informed prognostication. This will help surgeons and patients make accurate comparisons between the clinical outcomes of surgical resection and other non-surgical treatments.
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Objective: We aimed to prognosticate survival after surgical resection of HCC stratified by stage with amalgamation of the modified Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system and location of tumour. Methods: This single-institutional retrospective cohort study included patients with HCC who underwent surgical resection between 1st January 2000 to 30th June 2016. Participants were divided into 6 different subgroups: A-u) Within MC with Unilobar lesions; A-b) Within MC + Bilobar lesions; B1-u) Out of MC + within Up-To-7 + Unilobar lesions; B1-b) Out of MC + within Up-to-7 + Bilobar lesions; B2-u) Out of MC + Out of Up-To-7 + Unilobar lesions; B2-b) Out of MC + Out of Up-To-7 + Bilobar lesions. A separate survival analysis was conducted for solitary HCC lesions according to three subgroups: A-S (Within MC); B1-S (Out of MC + within Up-To-7); B2-S (Out of MC + out of Up-To-7). Results: A total of 794 of 1043 patients with surgical resection for HCC were analysed. Groups A-u (64.6%), A-b (58.4%) and B1-u (56.2%) had 5-year cumulative overall survival (OS) rates above 50% after surgical resection and median OS exceeding 60 months (P = 0.0001). The 5-year cumulative recurrence-free survival rates (RFS) were 40.4% (group A-u), 38.2% (group A-b), 36.3% (group B1-u), 24.6% (group B2-u), and 7.3% (group B2-b)(P=0.0001). For solitary lesions, the 5-year OS for the subgroups were A-S (65.1%), B1-S (56.0%) and B2-S (47.1%) (P = 0.0003). Compared to A-S, there was also a significant trend towards relatively poorer OS as the lesion sizes increased in B1-S (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.03-2.08) and B2-S (HR 1.65, 95% CI 1.25-2.18). Conclusion: We adopted a novel approach combining the modified BCLC B sub-classification and dispersion of tumour to show that surgical resection in intermediate stage HCC can be robustly prognosticated. We found that size prognosticates resection outcomes in solitary tumours.
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INTRODUCTION: Real-world management of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is crucially challenging in the current rapidly evolving clinical environment which includes the need for respecting patient preferences and autonomy. In this context, regional/national treatment guidelines nuanced to local demographics have increasing importance in guiding disease management. We report here real-world data on clinical outcomes in HCC from a validation of the Consensus Guidelines for HCC at the National Cancer Centre Singapore (NCCS). METHOD: We evaluated the NCCS guidelines using prospectively collected real-world data, comparing the efficacy of treatment received using overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). Treatment outcomes were also independently evaluated against 2 external sets of guidelines, the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) and Hong Kong Liver Cancer (HKLC). RESULTS: Overall treatment compliance to the NCCS guidelines was 79.2%. Superior median OS was observed in patients receiving treatment compliant with NCCS guidelines for early (nonestimable vs. 23.5 months p < 0.0001), locally advanced (28.1 vs. 22.2 months p = 0.0216) and locally advanced with macrovascular invasion (10.3 vs. 3.3 months p = 0.0013) but not for metastatic HCC (8.1 vs. 6.8 months p = 0.6300), but PFS was similar. Better clinical outcomes were seen in BCLC C patients who received treatment compliant with NCCS guidelines than in patients with treatment only allowed by BCLC guidelines (median OS 14.2 vs. 7.4 months p = 0.0002; median PFS 6.1 vs. 4.0 months p = 0.0286). Clinical outcomes were, however, similar for patients across all HKLC stages receiving NCCS-recommended treatment regardless of whether their treatment was allowed by HKLC. CONCLUSION: The high overall compliance rate and satisfactory clinical outcomes of patients managed according to the NCCS guidelines confirm its validity. This validation using real-world data considers patient and treating clinician preferences, thus providing a realistic analysis of the usefulness of the NCCS guidelines when applied in the clinics.