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Objective: We aimed to investigate the clinical utility of follow-up oesophagogastroduodenoscopy (OGD2) in patients with severe oesophagitis (Los Angeles grades C or D) through evaluating the yield of Barrett's oesophagus (BO), cancer, dysplasia and strictures. Second, we aimed to determine if the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) may be used to identify patients to undergo OGD2s. Design/method: Patients in NHS Lothian with an index OGD (OGD1) diagnosis of severe oesophagitis between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2015 were identified. Univariate analysis identified factors associated with grade. Patients were stratified by frailty and a diagnosis of stricture, cancer, dysplasia and BO. Results: In total 964 patients were diagnosed with severe oesophagitis, 61.7% grade C and 38.3% grade D. The diagnostic yield of new pathology at OGD2 was 13.2% (n=51), new strictures (2.3%), dysplasia (0.5%), cancer (0.3%) and BO (10.1%). A total of 140 patients had clinical frailty (CFS score ≥5), 88.6% of which were deceased at review (median of 76 months). In total 16.4% of frail patients underwent OGD2s and five new pathologies were diagnosed, none of which were significantly associated with grade. Among non-frail patients at OGD2, BO was the only pathology more common (p=0.010) in patients with grade D. Rates of cancer, dysplasia and strictures did not vary significantly between grades. Conclusion: Our data demonstrate that OGD2s in patients with severe oesophagitis may be tailored according to clinical frailty and only be offered to non-frail patients. In non-frail patients OGD2s have similar pick-up rates of sinister pathology in both grades of severe oesophagitis.
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Introduction: In the UK, endoscopy certification is awarded when trainees attain minimum competency standards for independent practice. A national evidence-based review was undertaken to update and develop standards and recommendations for colonoscopy training and certification. Methods: Under the oversight of the Joint Advisory Group (JAG), a modified Delphi process was conducted between 2019 and 2020 with multisociety expert representation. Following literature review and Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations appraisal, recommendation statements on colonoscopy training and certification were formulated and subjected to anonymous voting to obtain consensus. Accepted statements were peer reviewed by JAG and relevant stakeholders for incorporation into the updated colonoscopy certification pathway. Results: In total, 45 recommendation statements were generated under the domains of: definition of competence (13), acquisition of competence (20), assessment of competence (8) and postcertification support (4). The consensus process led to revised criteria for colonoscopy certification, comprising: (1) achieving key performance indicators defined within British Society of Gastroenterology standards (ie, unassisted caecal intubation rate >90%, rectal retroversion >90%, polyp detection rate >15%+, polyp retrieval rate >90%, patient comfort <10% with moderate-severe discomfort); (2) minimum procedure count 280+; (3) performing 15+ procedures over the preceding 3 months; (4) attendance of the JAG Basic Skills in Colonoscopy course; (5) terminal ileal intubation rates of 60%+ in inflammatory bowel disease; (6) satisfying requirements for formative direct observation of procedure skills (DOPS) and direct observation of polypectomy skills (Size, Morphology, Site, Access (SMSA) level 2); (7) evidence of reflective practice as documented on the JAG Endoscopy Training System reflection tool; (8) successful performance in summative DOPS. Conclusion: The UK standards for training and certification in colonoscopy have been updated, culminating in a single-stage certification process with emphasis on polypectomy competency (SMSA Level 2+). These standards are intended to support training, improve standards of colonoscopy and polypectomy, and provide support to the newly independent practitioner.
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Introduction: Joint Advisory Group (JAG) certification in endoscopy is awarded when trainees attain minimum competency standards for independent practice. A national evidence-based review was undertaken to update standards for training and certification in flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS). Methods: A modified Delphi process was conducted between 2019 and 2020 with multisociety representation from experts and trainees. Following literature review and Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations appraisal, recommendation statements on FS training and certification were formulated and subjected to anonymous voting to obtain consensus. Accepted statements were peer-reviewed by national stakeholders for incorporation into the JAG FS certification pathway. Results: In total, 41 recommendation statements were generated under the domains of: definition of competence (13), acquisition of competence (17), assessment of competence (7) and postcertification support (4). The consensus process led to revised criteria for colonoscopy certification, comprising: (A) achieving key performance indicators defined within British Society of Gastroenterology standards (ie, rectal retroversion >90%, polyp retrieval rate >90%, patient comfort <10% with moderate-severe discomfort); (B) minimum procedure count ≥175; (C) performing 15+ procedures over the preceding 3 months; (D) attendance of the JAG Basic Skills in Lower gastrointestinal Endoscopy course; (E) satisfying requirements for formative direct observation of procedural skill (DOPS) and direct observation of polypectomy skill (SMSA level 1); (F) evidence of reflective practice as documented on the JAG Endoscopy Training System reflection tool and (G) successful performance in summative DOPS. Conclusion: The UK standards for training and certification in FS have been updated to support training, uphold standards in FS and polypectomy, and provide support to the newly independent practitioner.
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Objective: Debate is ongoing regarding the need for universal endoscopic follow-up to ensure gastric ulcer healing. We aimed to assess the value of follow-up oesophago-gastro-duodenoscopies (OGDs) for gastric ulcer healing and stratify patients according to risk of malignancy by developing a risk score. Design/method: All patients in National Health Service (NHS) Lothian with an index OGD and a diagnosis of gastric ulcer between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2018 were identified. Data were analysed with logistic regression to identify factors significantly associated with a diagnosis of cancer; a risk score was derived and externally validated. Results: 778 patients were identified and 60.3% (469/778) of patients had a follow-up OGD. 8.6% (66/778) of patients were diagnosed with cancer. No cases of cancer were found on follow-up OGD of a benign appearing ulcer with negative biopsies. Macroscopic suspicion of malignancy was present at index OGD in 100% (3/3) of those diagnosed with cancer on subsequent OGDs. Older age (p=0.014), increased ulcer size (p<0.001) and non-antral location (p=0.030) were significantly associated with malignancy. A risk score (area under the curve (AUC) 0.868, p<0.001, minimum score=0, maximum score=6) was derived from these variables. 78.0% of patients with malignant ulcers scored ≥3, only 15.8% with benign ulcers scored ≥3 (negative predictive value (NPV) 97.4%). External validation yielded an AUC of 0.862 (p<0.001) and NPV of 98.6%; 84.0% of those with malignant ulcers scored ≥3. Conclusion: Ulcers with a combination of macroscopically benign appearances, at least six negative biopsies and a low risk score do not necessarily need endoscopic follow-up.
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BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Digital single-operator cholangioscopy (d-SOC) with cholangioscopic biopsy sampling has shown promise in the evaluation of indeterminate biliary strictures. Some studies have suggested higher sensitivity for visual impression compared with biopsy sampling, although assessors were not blinded to previous investigations. We aimed to investigate the diagnostic accuracy and interobserver agreement (IOA) of d-SOC in the visual appraisal of biliary strictures when blinded to additional information. METHODS: A multicenter, international cohort study was performed. Cholangioscopic videos in patients with a known final diagnosis were systematically scored. Pseudonymized videos were reviewed by 19 experts in 2 steps: blinded for patient history and investigations and unblinded. RESULTS: Forty-four high-quality videos were reviewed of 19 benign and 25 malignant strictures. The sensitivity and specificity for the diagnosis of malignancy was 74.2% and 46.9% (blinded) and 72.7% and 62.5% (unblinded). Cholangioscopic certainty of a malignant diagnosis led to overdiagnosis (sensitivity, 90.6%; specificity, 33%), especially if no additional information was provided. The IOA for the presence of malignancy was fair for both assessments (Fleiss' κ = .245 [blinded] and κ = .321 [unblended]). For individual visual features, the IOA ranged from slight to moderate for both assessments (κ = .059-.400 vs κ = .031-.452). CONCLUSIONS: This study showed low sensitivity and specificity for blinded and unblinded d-SOC video appraisal of indeterminate biliary strictures, with considerable interobserver variation. Although reaching a consensus on the optical features of biliary strictures remains important, optimizing visually directed biopsy sampling may be the most important role of cholangioscopy in biliary stricture assessment.
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Endoscopia do Sistema Digestório , Sobrediagnóstico , Estudos de Coortes , Constrição Patológica/etiologia , Humanos , Variações Dependentes do ObservadorRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) remains a common cause of presentation and admission to hospital in the UK, with the incidence in Scotland one of the highest in the world. AIMS: To investigate the difference in demographics, deprivation quintiles, aetiology of bleeding and clinical outcomes in patients presenting with UGIB to hospitals across Scotland over a 16-year period METHODS: Data were collected using the National Data Catalogue and analysed retrospectively using the National Safe Haven. RESULTS: We included 129 404 patients. The annual number of patients presenting with UGIB remained similar over the 16-year period. Mean age at admission increased from 59.2 to 61.4 years. There was a significant drop in variceal bleeding over time from 2.2% to 1.7% (P < 0.001). The incidence of UGIB was highest in the more deprived quintiles. There was a significant decrease in 30-day case-fatality from 10.1% in 2000 to 7.9% in 2015 (P < 0.001), which was observed across all deprivation quintiles. Mean length of stay fell from 3.9 to 2.1 days. There was no difference in 30-day case-fatality or mean length of stay between patients presenting on weekdays or at weekends. CONCLUSIONS: In this national study, we demonstrated that case-fatality and mean length of stay after presentation with UGIB in Scotland has fallen over the past 16 years, despite a rise the in mean age of patients. There is a positive correlation between the incidence of UGIB and deprivation. We found no evidence of worse outcomes among patients presenting at weekends.
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Varizes Esofágicas e Gástricas , Hemorragia Gastrointestinal/epidemiologia , Hemorragia Gastrointestinal/etiologia , Hemorragia Gastrointestinal/terapia , Hospitalização , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Escócia/epidemiologiaRESUMO
AIM: To compare colonoscopy quality with nitrous oxide gas (Entonox®) against intravenous conscious sedation using midazolam plus opioid. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was performed on a prospectively held database of 18608 colonoscopies carried out in Lothian health board hospitals between July 2013 and January 2016. The quality of colonoscopies performed with Entonox was compared to intravenous conscious sedation (abbreviated in this article as IVM). Furthermore, the quality of colonoscopies performed with an unmedicated group was compared to IVM. The study used the following key markers of colonoscopy quality: (1) patient comfort scores; (2) caecal intubation rates (CIRs); and (3) polyp detection rates (PDRs). We used binary logistic regression to model the data. RESULTS: There was no difference in the rate of moderate-to-extreme discomfort between the Entonox and IVM groups (17.9% vs 18.8%; OR = 1.06, 95%CI: 0.95-1.18, P = 0.27). Patients in the unmedicated group were less likely to experience moderate-to-extreme discomfort than those in the IVM group (11.4% vs 18.8%; OR = 0.71, 95%CI: 0.60-0.83, P < 0.001). There was no difference in caecal intubation between the Entonox and IVM groups (94.4% vs 93.7%; OR = 1.08, 95%CI: 0.92-1.28, P = 0.34). There was no difference in caecal intubation between the unmedicated and IVM groups (94.2% vs 93.7%; OR = 0.98, 95%CI: 0.79-1.22, P = 0.87). Polyp detection in the Entonox group was not different from IVM group (35.0% vs 33.1%; OR = 1.01, 95%CI: 0.93-1.10, P = 0.79). Polyp detection in the unmedicated group was not significantly different from the IVM group (37.4% vs 33.1%; OR = 0.97, 95%CI: 0.87-1.08, P = 0.60). CONCLUSION: The use of Entonox was not associated with lower colonoscopy quality when compared to intravenous conscious sedation using midazolam plus opioid.
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BACKGROUND: Endoscopic management of nonvariceal upper GI bleed (NVUGIB) can be challenging. Hemospray is a novel endoscopic hemostatic agent for NVUGIB. Its efficacy in attaining hemostasis in NVUGIB is promising, particularly with respect to technically difficult lesions. However, most of the currently available data are focused on its application as monotherapy. The aim of this study was to evaluate its efficacy as a second agent to adrenaline, or as an addition to the combination of adrenaline with either clips or a thermal device in NVUGIB. METHODS: Consecutive patients with Forrest 1a and 1b ulcer treated with hemostatic spray as an adjunct to conventional endoscopic hemostatic measures between July 2013 and June 2015 were included in this retrospective analysis. The endpoints were initial hemostasis, 7-day rebleeding, 30-day rebleeding, all-cause, and GI-related 30-day mortality. RESULTS: A total of 20 patients (median age, 75 years, 50% men, 60% Forrest 1a ulcer) were treated with hemostatic spray as a second agent to adrenaline, or as an adjunct to the combination of adrenaline with either clips or a thermal device. Hemostatic spray was used as a second agent to adrenaline in 40% and as a third agent to combined dual therapy in 60%. Initial hemostasis was attained in 95% with an overall rebleeding rate at 7 days of 16%. There was no difference between the 7-day and 30-day rebleeding rates. The combination of hemostatic spray and adrenaline resulted in 100% initial hemostasis and 25% 7-day rebleeding. Similarly, initial hemostasis was achieved in 92% with a 9% rebleeding rate when hemostatic spray was used as the third agent to 2 of the conventional measures. All-cause mortality was 15% with 1 GI-related death (3%). CONCLUSIONS: In our single-center retrospective analysis, hemostatic spray appears promising as an adjunct to conventional methods for NVUGIB, although prospective controlled trials are needed to confirm this.
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Epinefrina/uso terapêutico , Hemostase Endoscópica/métodos , Hemostáticos/uso terapêutico , Minerais/uso terapêutico , Úlcera Péptica Hemorrágica/terapia , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Causas de Morte , Quimioterapia Combinada , Eletrocoagulação , Feminino , Hemostase Endoscópica/efeitos adversos , Hemostase Endoscópica/instrumentação , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Úlcera Péptica Hemorrágica/mortalidade , Recidiva , Estudos Retrospectivos , Índice de Gravidade de DoençaRESUMO
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Distinction of immunoglobulin G4-associated cholangitis (IAC) from primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) or cholangiocarcinoma is challenging. We aimed to assess the performance characteristics of endoscopic retrograde cholangiography (ERC) for the diagnosis of IAC. METHODS: Seventeen physicians from centers in the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom, unaware of clinical data, reviewed 40 preselected ERCs of patients with IAC (n = 20), PSC (n = 10), and cholangiocarcinoma (n = 10). The performance characteristics of ERC for IAC diagnosis as well as the κ statistic for intraobserver and interobserver agreement were calculated. RESULTS: The overall specificity, sensitivity, and interobserver agreement for the diagnosis of IAC were 88%, 45%, and 0.18, respectively. Reviewer origin, specialty, or years of experience had no statistically significant effect on reporting success. The overall intraobserver agreement was fair (0.74). The operating characteristics of different ERC features for the diagnosis of IAC were poor. CONCLUSIONS: Despite high specificity of ERC for diagnosing IAC, sensitivity is poor, suggesting that many patients with IAC may be misdiagnosed with PSC or cholangiocarcinoma. Additional diagnostic strategies are likely to be vital in distinguishing these diseases.
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Colangiocarcinoma/diagnóstico , Colangiopancreatografia Retrógrada Endoscópica , Colangite/diagnóstico , Colangite/etiologia , Imunoglobulina G/efeitos adversos , Colangite/induzido quimicamente , Diagnóstico Diferencial , Erros de Diagnóstico/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Imunoglobulina G/administração & dosagem , Japão , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Reino Unido , Estados UnidosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Characteristic pancreatic duct changes on endoscopic retrograde pancreatography (ERP) have been described in autoimmune pancreatitis (AIP). The performance characteristics of ERP to diagnose AIP were determined. METHODS: The study was done in two phases. In phase I, 21 physicians from four centres in Asia, Europe and the USA, unaware of the clinical data or diagnoses, reviewed 40 preselected ERPs of patients with AIP (n=20), chronic pancreatitis (n=10) and pancreatic cancer (n=10). Physicians noted the presence or absence of key pancreatographic features and ranked the diagnostic possibilities. For phase II, a teaching module was created based on features found most useful in the diagnosis of AIP by the four best performing physicians in phase I. After a washout period of 3 months, all physicians reviewed the teaching module and reanalysed the same set of ERPs, unaware of their performance in phase I. RESULTS: In phase I the sensitivity, specificity and interobserver agreement of ERP alone to diagnose AIP were 44, 92 and 0.23, respectively. The four key features of AIP identified in phase I were (i) long (>1/3 the length of the pancreatic duct) stricture; (ii) lack of upstream dilatation from the stricture (<5 mm); (iii) multiple strictures; and (iv) side branches arising from a strictured segment. In phase II the sensitivity (71%) of ERP significantly improved (p<0.05) without a significant decline in specificity (83%) (p>0.05); the interobserver agreement was fair (0.40). CONCLUSIONS: The ability to diagnose AIP based on ERP features alone is limited but can be improved with knowledge of some key features.
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Doenças Autoimunes/diagnóstico por imagem , Colangiopancreatografia Retrógrada Endoscópica/métodos , Pancreatite Crônica/diagnóstico por imagem , Algoritmos , Colangiopancreatografia Retrógrada Endoscópica/normas , Competência Clínica , Diagnóstico Diferencial , Educação Médica Continuada/métodos , Humanos , Cooperação Internacional , Neoplasias Pancreáticas/diagnóstico , Radiologia/educação , Sensibilidade e EspecificidadeRESUMO
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Autoimmune pancreatitis (AIP) is a multisystem disorder that often has extrapancreatic manifestations such as immunoglobulin G4-associated cholangitis (IAC). Patients respond rapidly to steroids but can relapse after therapy. We assessed the clinical management of relapse in a group of patients with AIP/IAC. METHODS: We performed a prospective study of patients diagnosed with AIP from 2004-2007 who received steroids. Treatment outcome was defined clinically, radiologically, and biochemically as response to steroids, remission after steroids, failure to wean steroids, and relapse. Steroids +/- azathioprine (AZA) were used to treat patients who failed, relapsed, or could not be weaned from steroids. RESULTS: Twenty-eight patients with AIP were studied; 23 (82%) had IAC. All patients responded within 6 weeks to prednisolone therapy. Twenty-three patients achieved remission after a median of 5 months of treatment (range, 1.5-17 months), whereas 5 patients (18%) could not be weaned because of a disease flare. Of the patients who achieved remission, 8 of 23 (35%) subsequently relapsed. Overall, 13 of 23 patients (57%) with AIP/IAC relapsed, compared with 0 of the 5 with isolated AIP (P = .04, Fisher exact test). Steroids were increased/restarted in all patients who relapsed; 10 also received AZA. Remission was achieved and maintained in 7 patients; they remain on AZA monotherapy at a median of 14 months (range, 1-27 months). CONCLUSIONS: Relapse or failure to wean steroids occurred in 46% of patients with AIP. Patients with IAC are at particularly high risk of relapse. AZA appears to be effective in patients with post-treatment relapse or who cannot be weaned from steroids. To view this article's video abstract, go to the AGA's YouTube Channel.
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Anti-Inflamatórios/uso terapêutico , Doenças Autoimunes/tratamento farmacológico , Doenças Autoimunes/fisiopatologia , Colangite/tratamento farmacológico , Colangite/fisiopatologia , Pancreatite/tratamento farmacológico , Pancreatite/fisiopatologia , Esteroides/uso terapêutico , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Doenças Autoimunes/patologia , Azatioprina/uso terapêutico , Colangite/patologia , Feminino , Humanos , Imunossupressores/uso terapêutico , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pancreatite/patologia , Estudos Prospectivos , Recidiva , Falha de Tratamento , Resultado do TratamentoRESUMO
Volvulus of the sigmoid colon is a condition that, in the Western world, predominately affects the elderly. In fit patients sigmoid colectomy, after a period of decompression, is the treatment of choice. However, this carries a high mortality in elderly high-risk patients. Percutaneous endoscopic colostomy (PEC) has been reported as a treatment for those who are considered high risk for surgery. We report the successful use of PEC in an 87-year-old lady, for the treatment of recurrent sigmoid volvulus, without complication. This procedure has also been used effectively for colonic pseudo-obstruction, constipation, and obstructed defecation. There are various complications associated with PEC, the most serious of which is tube migration and fecal peritonitis. Our experience supports the use of PEC to treat sigmoid volvulus in those too frail for colonic resection.
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Colo Sigmoide/cirurgia , Colostomia/métodos , Volvo Intestinal/cirurgia , Laparoscopia/métodos , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Colo Sigmoide/patologia , Feminino , Humanos , Volvo Intestinal/patologiaRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: Most cases of autoimmune pancreatitis (AIP) have been reported from Japan. We present data on a UK series, including clinical and radiological features at presentation, and longitudinal response to immunosuppression. METHODS: Over an 18-month period, all patients diagnosed in our center with AIP were studied. Endoscopic biliary stenting was performed as required, and patients were treated with prednisolone, with response assessed longitudinally. In cases of disease relapse following steroid reduction, azathioprine was instituted. RESULTS: Eleven patients met diagnostic criteria for AIP. Diffuse pancreatic enlargement was seen in eight patients (73%), and pancreatic duct strictures in all. Seven patients required biliary stents. Extrapancreatic involvement occurred in all, including intrahepatic stricturing and renal disease. Eight weeks after starting steroids, the median serum bilirubin level had fallen from 38 mumol/L to 11 mumol/L (P= 0.001), and ALT from 97 IU/L to 39 IU/L (P= 0.002). Stents were removed in all cases, with no recurrence of jaundice. Improvements in mass lesions and pancreaticobiliary stricturing occurred in all patients. During a median 18-month follow-up, six patients relapsed, four of whom responded to azathioprine. Two patients discontinued steroids and remained well. CONCLUSIONS: Extrapancreatic disease was an important feature of AIP in this UK series. Initial response to immunosuppressive therapy was excellent, but disease relapse was common. Optimal long-term management remains to be established.
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Doenças Autoimunes/terapia , Pancreatite/terapia , Adulto , Idoso , Doenças Autoimunes/diagnóstico , Doenças Autoimunes/epidemiologia , Azatioprina/uso terapêutico , Colangiopancreatografia Retrógrada Endoscópica , Terapia Combinada , Meios de Contraste , Progressão da Doença , Endoscopia Gastrointestinal , Feminino , Humanos , Imunossupressores/uso terapêutico , Estudos Longitudinais , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pancreatite/diagnóstico , Pancreatite/epidemiologia , Prednisolona/uso terapêutico , Stents , Tomografia Computadorizada por Raios X , Resultado do Tratamento , Reino Unido/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Autoimmune pancreatitis (AIP) is recognized increasingly as a multisystem disorder. We evaluated the use of immunoglobulin (Ig)G4 immunostaining of pancreatic and extrapancreatic biopsy specimens to make a definitive diagnosis of AIP. METHODS: Seventeen biopsy specimens and 3 gallbladder resections were assessed from 11 patients with clinical and radiologic features of AIP. Biopsy specimens from pancreas, liver, colon, stomach, duodenum, bone marrow, salivary gland, and kidney were analyzed morphologically, immunostained for IgG4-positive plasma cells, and compared with controls. RESULTS: Positive IgG4 immunostaining enabled a definitive diagnosis in 10 of 11 (91%) AIP patients. In both pancreatic and extrapancreatic tissues, high levels of IgG4 immunostaining (>10 IgG4-positive plasma cells/high-power field) were found in 17 of 20 (85%) specimens from AIP patients compared with 1 of 175 (0.6%) specimens from controls (P < .05). Positive extrapancreatic IgG4 immunostaining was found in 8 of 11 (73%) patients, including all those with diagnostic features in the pancreas. Increased tissue IgG4 was found irrespective of serum IgG4 level. CONCLUSIONS: The finding of IgG4 immunostaining within a range of clinically involved tissues supports the hypothesis that AIP is a multisystem disease. Positive IgG4 immunostaining in extrapancreatic tissues may allow a definitive diagnosis of AIP to be made in those with evidence of pancreatic disease, without the necessity of pancreatic biopsy or surgical exploration. Immunostaining of involved tissue for IgG4 may be particularly useful when AIP is suspected clinically but the serum IgG4 level is normal.
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Anticorpos Anti-Idiotípicos/metabolismo , Doenças Autoimunes/diagnóstico , Imunoglobulina G/metabolismo , Pancreatite/diagnóstico , Adulto , Idoso , Anticorpos Anti-Idiotípicos/imunologia , Doenças Autoimunes/imunologia , Doenças Autoimunes/metabolismo , Biomarcadores/metabolismo , Biópsia , Medula Óssea/patologia , Colo/patologia , Diagnóstico Diferencial , Duodeno/patologia , Humanos , Imunoglobulina G/imunologia , Rim/patologia , Fígado/patologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pâncreas/patologia , Pancreatite/imunologia , Pancreatite/metabolismo , Prognóstico , Glândulas Salivares/patologia , Estômago/patologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The Rockall scoring system was developed in unselected patients, the majority of whom did not receive endoscopic therapy. The aim of this study was to assess the validity of the Rockall system in high-risk patients who undergo endoscopic therapy for peptic ulcer hemorrhage. METHODS: Rockall scores were calculated in 247 patients with major peptic ulcer bleeding entered into a randomized trial of endoscopic therapy. The observed rates of recurrent bleeding and mortality after endoscopic therapy were compared with predicted rates derived from Rockall's study group. The validity of the Rockall system was assessed in terms of calibration and discrimination. RESULTS: Rates of recurrent bleeding and mortality after endoscopic therapy increased with an increasing Rockall score. Observed rates of recurrent bleeding and mortality were below predicted rates, and calibration of the Rockall system was poor (Mantel-Haenszel chi square = 25.8, p < 0.0001 for recurrent bleeding; Mantel-Haenszel chi square = 15.1, p < 0.0001 for death). For the prediction of recurrent bleeding, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was low (63.4%), but the system was satisfactory when predicting mortality (area under the resulting curve, 84.3%). CONCLUSIONS: After endoscopic therapy for a bleeding peptic ulcer, the Rockall scoring system can identify patients at high risk of death, but it is inadequate for the prediction of recurrent bleeding.