Fibroblast mediated dynamics in diffusively uncoupled myocytes: a simulation study using 2-cell motifs.

In healthy hearts myocytes are typically coupled to nearest neighbours through gap junctions. Under pathological conditions such as fibrosis, or in scar tissue, or across ablation lines myocytes can uncouple from their neighbours. Electrical conduction may still occur via fibroblasts that not only couple proximal myocytes but can also couple otherwise unconnected regions. We hypothesise that such coupling can alter conduction between myocytes via introduction of delays or by initiation of premature stimuli that can potentially result in reentry or conduction blocks. To test this hypothesis we have developed several 2-cell motifs and investigated the effect of fibroblast mediated electrical coupling between uncoupled myocytes. We have identified various regimes of myocyte behaviour that depend on the strength of gap-junctional conductance, connection topology, and parameters of the myocyte and fibroblast models. These motifs are useful in developing a mechanistic understanding of long-distance coupling on myocyte dynamics and enable the characterisation of interaction between different features such as myocyte and fibroblast properties, coupling strengths and pacing period. They are computationally inexpensive and allow for incorporation of spatial effects such as conduction velocity. They provide a framework for constructing scar tissue boundaries and enable linking of cellular level interactions with scar induced arrhythmia.

Artificial Intelligence framework with traditional computer vision and deep learning approaches for optimal automatic segmentation of left ventricle with scar.

Automatic segmentation of the cardiac left ventricle with scars remains a challenging and clinically significant task, as it is essential for patient diagnosis and treatment pathways. This study aimed to develop a novel framework and cost function to achieve optimal automatic segmentation of the left ventricle with scars using LGE-MRI images. To ensure the generalization of the framework, an unbiased validation protocol was established using out-of-distribution (OOD) internal and external validation cohorts, and intra-observation and inter-observer variability ground truths. The framework employs a combination of traditional computer vision techniques and deep learning, to achieve optimal segmentation results. The traditional approach uses multi-atlas techniques, active contours, and k-means methods, while the deep learning approach utilizes various deep learning techniques and networks. The study found that the traditional computer vision technique delivered more accurate results than deep learning, except in cases where there was breath misalignment error. The optimal solution of the framework achieved robust and generalized results with Dice scores of 82.8 ± 6.4% and 72.1 ± 4.6% in the internal and external OOD cohorts, respectively. The developed framework offers a high-performance solution for automatic segmentation of the left ventricle with scars using LGE-MRI. Unlike existing state-of-the-art approaches, it achieves unbiased results across different hospitals and vendors without the need for training or tuning in hospital cohorts. This framework offers a valuable tool for experts to accomplish the task of fully automatic segmentation of the left ventricle with scars based on a single-modality cardiac scan.

Markov modeling of phase singularity interaction effects in human atrial and ventricular fibrillation.

Atrial and ventricular fibrillation (AF/VF) are characterized by the repetitive regeneration of topological defects known as phase singularities (PSs). The effect of PS interactions has not been previously studied in human AF and VF. We hypothesized that PS population size would influence the rate of PS formation and destruction in human AF and VF, due to increased inter-defect interaction. PS population statistics were studied in computational simulations (Aliev-Panfilov), human AF and human VF. The influence of inter-PS interactions was evaluated by comparison between directly modeled discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC) transition matrices of the PS population changes, and M/M/∞ birth-death transition matrices of PS dynamics, which assumes that PS formations and destructions are effectively statistically independent events. Across all systems examined, PS population changes differed from those expected with M/M/∞. In human AF and VF, the formation rates decreased slightly with PS population when modeled with the DTMC, compared with the static formation rate expected through M/M/∞, suggesting new formations were being inhibited. In human AF and VF, the destruction rates increased with PS population for both models, with the DTMC rate increase exceeding the M/M/∞ estimates, indicating that PS were being destroyed faster as the PS population grew. In human AF and VF, the change in PS formation and destruction rates as the population increased differed between the two models. This indicates that the presence of additional PS influenced the likelihood of new PS formation and destruction, consistent with the notion of self-inhibitory inter-PS interactions.

Quantifying the impact of shape uncertainty on predicted arrhythmias.

BACKGROUND: Personalised computer models are increasingly used to diagnose cardiac arrhythmias and tailor treatment. Patient-specific models of the left atrium are often derived from pre-procedural imaging of anatomy and fibrosis. These images contain noise that can affect simulation predictions. There are few computationally tractable methods for propagating uncertainties from images to clinical predictions. METHOD: We describe the left atrium anatomy using our Bayesian shape model that captures anatomical uncertainty in medical images and has been validated on 63 independent clinical images. This algorithm describes the left atrium anatomy using Nmodes=15 principal components, capturing 95% of the shape variance and calculated from 70 clinical cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) images. Latent variables encode shape uncertainty: we evaluate their posterior distribution for each new anatomy. We assume a normally distributed prior. We use the unscented transform to sample from the posterior shape distribution. For each sample, we assign the local material properties of the tissue using the projection of late gadolinium enhancement CMR (LGE-CMR) onto the anatomy to estimate local fibrosis. To test which activation patterns an atrium can sustain, we perform an arrhythmia simulation for each sample. We consider 34 possible outcomes (31 macro-re-entries, functional re-entry, atrial fibrillation, and non-sustained arrhythmia). For each sample, we determine the outcome by comparing pre- and post-ablation activation patterns following a cross-field stimulus. RESULTS: We create patient-specific atrial electrophysiology models of ten patients. We validate the mean and standard deviation maps from the unscented transform with the same statistics obtained with 12,000 Monte Carlo (ground truth) samples. We found discrepancies <3% and <2% for the mean and standard deviation for fibrosis burden and activation time, respectively. For each patient case, we then compare the predicted outcome from a model built on the clinical data (deterministic approach) with the probability distribution obtained from the simulated samples. We found that the deterministic approach did not predict the most likely outcome in 80% of the cases. Finally, we estimate the influence of each source of uncertainty independently. Fixing the anatomy to the posterior mean and maintaining uncertainty in fibrosis reduced the prediction of self-terminating arrhythmias from ≃14% to ≃7%. Keeping the fibrosis fixed to the sample mean while retaining uncertainty in shape decreased the prediction of substrate-driven arrhythmias from ≃33% to ≃18% and increased the prediction of macro-re-entries from ≃54% to ≃68%. CONCLUSIONS: We presented a novel method for propagating shape uncertainty in atrial models through to uncertainty in numerical simulations. The algorithm takes advantage of the unscented transform to compute the output distribution of the outcomes. We validated the unscented transform as a viable sampling strategy to deal with anatomy uncertainty. We then showed that the prediction computed with a deterministic model does not always coincide with the most likely outcome. Finally, we found that shape uncertainty affects the predictions of macro-re-entries, while fibrosis uncertainty affects the predictions of functional re-entries.

Automatic development of 3D anatomical models of border zone and core scar regions in the left ventricle.

Patients with myocardial infarction are at elevated risk of sudden cardiac death, and scar tissue arising from infarction is known to play a role. The accurate identification of scars therefore is crucial for risk assessment, quantification and guiding interventions. Typically, core scars and grey peripheral zones are identified by radiologists and clinicians based on cardiac late gadolinium enhancement magnetic resonance images (LGE-MRI). Scar regions from LGE-MRI vary in size, shape, heterogeneity, artifacts, and image resolution. Thus, manual segmentation is time consuming, and influenced by the observer's experience (bias effect). We propose a fully automatic framework that develops 3D anatomical models of the left ventricle with border zone and core scar regions that are free from bias effect. Our myocardium (SOCRATIS), border scar and core scar (BZ-SOCRATIS) segmentation pipelines were evaluated using internal and external validation datasets. The automatic myocardium segmentation framework performed a Dice score of 81.9% and 70.0% in the internal and external validation dataset. The automatic scar segmentation pipeline achieved a Dice score of 60.9% for the core scar segmentation and 43.7% for the border zone scar segmentation in the internal dataset and in the external dataset a Dice score of 44.2% for the core scar segmentation and 54.8% for the border scar segmentation respectively. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study outlining a fully automatic framework to develop 3D anatomical models of the left ventricle with border zone and core scar regions. Our method exhibits high performance without the need for training or tuning in an unseen cohort (unsupervised).

Calibrating cardiac electrophysiology models using latent Gaussian processes on atrial manifolds.

Models of electrical excitation and recovery in the heart have become increasingly detailed, but have yet to be used routinely in the clinical setting to guide personalized intervention in patients. One of the main challenges is calibrating models from the limited measurements that can be made in a patient during a standard clinical procedure. In this work, we propose a novel framework for the probabilistic calibration of electrophysiology parameters on the left atrium of the heart using local measurements of cardiac excitability. Parameter fields are represented as Gaussian processes on manifolds and are linked to measurements via surrogate functions that map from local parameter values to measurements. The posterior distribution of parameter fields is then obtained. We show that our method can recover parameter fields used to generate localised synthetic measurements of effective refractory period. Our methodology is applicable to other measurement types collected with clinical protocols, and more generally for calibration where model parameters vary over a manifold.

The inspection paradox: An important consideration in the evaluation of rotor lifetimes in cardiac fibrillation.

Background and Objective: Renewal theory is a statistical approach to model the formation and destruction of phase singularities (PS), which occur at the pivots of spiral waves. A common issue arising during observation of renewal processes is an inspection paradox, due to oversampling of longer events. The objective of this study was to characterise the effect of a potential inspection paradox on the perception of PS lifetimes in cardiac fibrillation. Methods: A multisystem, multi-modality study was performed, examining computational simulations (Aliev-Panfilov (APV) model, Courtmanche-Nattel model), experimentally acquired optical mapping Atrial and Ventricular Fibrillation (AF/VF) data, and clinically acquired human AF and VF. Distributions of all PS lifetimes across full epochs of AF, VF, or computational simulations, were compared with distributions formed from lifetimes of PS existing at 10,000 simulated commencement timepoints. Results: In all systems, an inspection paradox led towards oversampling of PS with longer lifetimes. In APV computational simulations there was a mean PS lifetime shift of +84.9% (95% CI, ± 0.3%) (p < 0.001 for observed vs overall), in Courtmanche-Nattel simulations of AF +692.9% (95% CI, ±57.7%) (p < 0.001), in optically mapped rat AF +374.6% (95% CI, ± 88.5%) (p = 0.052), in human AF mapped with basket catheters +129.2% (95% CI, ±4.1%) (p < 0.05), human AF-HD grid catheters 150.8% (95% CI, ± 9.0%) (p < 0.001), in optically mapped rat VF +171.3% (95% CI, ±15.6%) (p < 0.001), in human epicardial VF 153.5% (95% CI, ±15.7%) (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Visual inspection of phase movies has the potential to systematically oversample longer lasting PS, due to an inspection paradox. An inspection paradox is minimised by consideration of the overall distribution of PS lifetimes.

Characterization of persistent atrial fibrillation with non-contact charge density mapping and relationship to voltage.

BACKGROUND: Despite studies using localized high density contact mapping and lower resolution panoramic approaches, the mechanisms that sustain human persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) remain unresolved. Voltage mapping is commonly employed as a surrogate of atrial substrate to guide ablation procedures. OBJECTIVE: To study the distribution and temporal stability of activation during persistent AF using a global non-contact charge density approach and compare the findings with bipolar contact mapping. METHODS: Patients undergoing either redo or de novo ablation for persistent AF underwent charge density and voltage mapping to guide the ablation procedure. Offline analysis was performed to measure the temporal stability of three specific charge density activation (CDA) patterns, and the degree of spatial overlap between CDA patterns and low voltage regions. RESULTS: CDA was observed in patient-specific locations that partially overlapped, comprising local rotational activity (18% of LA), local irregular activity (41% of LA), and focal activity (39% of LA). Local irregular activity had the highest temporal stability. LA voltage was similar in regions with and without CDA. CONCLUSION: In persistent AF, CDA patterns appear unrelated to low voltage areas but occur in varying locations with high temporal stability.

A governing equation for rotor and wavelet number in human clinical ventricular fibrillation: Implications for sudden cardiac death.

BACKGROUND: Ventricular fibrillation (VF) is characterized by multiple wavelets and rotors. No equation to predict the number of rotors and wavelets observed during fibrillation has been validated in human VF. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that a single equation derived from a Markov M/M/∞ birth-death process could predict the number of rotors and wavelets occurring in human clinical VF. METHODS: Epicardial induced VF (256-electrode) recordings obtained from patients undergoing cardiac surgery were studied (12 patients; 62 epochs). Rate constants for phase singularity (PS) (which occur at the pivot points of rotors) and wavefront (WF) formation and destruction were derived by fitting distributions to PS and WF interformation and lifetimes. These rate constants were combined in an M/M/∞ governing equation to predict the number of PS and WF in VF episodes. Observed distributions were compared to those predicted by the M/M/∞ equation. RESULTS: The M/M/∞ equation accurately predicted average PS and WF number and population distribution, demonstrated in all epochs. Self-terminating episodes of VF were distinguished from VF episodes requiring termination by a trend toward slower PS destruction, slower rates of PS formation, and a slower mixing rate of the VF process, indicated by larger values of the second largest eigenvalue modulus of the M/M/∞ birth-death matrix. The longest-lasting PS (associated with rotors) had shorter interactivation time intervals compared to shorter-lasting PS lasting <150 ms (∼1 PS rotation in human VF). CONCLUSION: The M/M/∞ equation explains the number of wavelets and rotors observed, supporting a paradigm of VF based on statistical fibrillatory dynamics.

Hypoglycaemia combined with mild hypokalaemia reduces the heart rate and causes abnormal pacemaker activity in a computational model of a human sinoatrial cell.

Low blood glucose, hypoglycaemia, has been implicated as a possible contributing factor to sudden cardiac death (SCD) in people with diabetes but it is challenging to investigate in clinical studies. We hypothesized the effects of hypoglycaemia on the sinoatrial node (SAN) in the heart to be a candidate mechanism and adapted a computational model of the human SAN action potential developed by Fabbri et al., to investigate the effects of hypoglycaemia on the pacemaker rate. Using Latin hypercube sampling, we combined the effects of low glucose (LG) on the human ether-a-go-go-related gene channel with reduced blood potassium, hypokalaemia, and added sympathetic and parasympathetic stimulus. We showed that hypoglycaemia on its own causes a small decrease in heart rate but there was also a marked decrease in heart rate when combined with hypokalaemia. The effect of the sympathetic stimulus was diminished, causing a smaller increase in heart rate, with LG and hypokalaemia compared to normoglycaemia. By contrast, the effect of the parasympathetic stimulus was enhanced, causing a greater decrease in heart rate. We therefore demonstrate a potential mechanistic explanation for hypoglycaemia-induced bradycardia and show that sinus arrest is a plausible mechanism for SCD in people with diabetes.

DenResCov-19: A deep transfer learning network for robust automatic classification of COVID-19, pneumonia, and tuberculosis from X-rays.

The global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is continuing to have a significant effect on the well-being of the global population, thus increasing the demand for rapid testing, diagnosis, and treatment. As COVID-19 can cause severe pneumonia, early diagnosis is essential for correct treatment, as well as to reduce the stress on the healthcare system. Along with COVID-19, other etiologies of pneumonia and Tuberculosis (TB) constitute additional challenges to the medical system. Pneumonia (viral as well as bacterial) kills about 2 million infants every year and is consistently estimated as one of the most important factor of childhood mortality (according to the World Health Organization). Chest X-ray (CXR) and computed tomography (CT) scans are the primary imaging modalities for diagnosing respiratory diseases. Although CT scans are the gold standard, they are more expensive, time consuming, and are associated with a small but significant dose of radiation. Hence, CXR have become more widespread as a first line investigation. In this regard, the objective of this work is to develop a new deep transfer learning pipeline, named DenResCov-19, to diagnose patients with COVID-19, pneumonia, TB or healthy based on CXR images. The pipeline consists of the existing DenseNet-121 and the ResNet-50 networks. Since the DenseNet and ResNet have orthogonal performances in some instances, in the proposed model we have created an extra layer with convolutional neural network (CNN) blocks to join these two models together to establish superior performance as compared to the two individual networks. This strategy can be applied universally in cases where two competing networks are observed. We have tested the performance of our proposed network on two-class (pneumonia and healthy), three-class (COVID-19 positive, healthy, and pneumonia), as well as four-class (COVID-19 positive, healthy, TB, and pneumonia) classification problems. We have validated that our proposed network has been able to successfully classify these lung-diseases on our four datasets and this is one of our novel findings. In particular, the AUC-ROC are 99.60, 96.51, 93.70, 96.40% and the F1 values are 98.21, 87.29, 76.09, 83.17% on our Dataset X-Ray 1, 2, 3, and 4 (DXR1, DXR2, DXR3, DXR4), respectively.

Corrigendum: Bayesian Calibration of Electrophysiology Models Using Restitution Curve Emulators.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fphys.2021.693015.].

Time-Averaged Wavefront Analysis Demonstrates Preferential Pathways of Atrial Fibrillation, Predicting Pulmonary Vein Isolation Acute Response.

Electrical activation during atrial fibrillation (AF) appears chaotic and disorganised, which impedes characterisation of the underlying substrate and treatment planning. While globally chaotic, there may be local preferential activation pathways that represent potential ablation targets. This study aimed to identify preferential activation pathways during AF and predict the acute ablation response when these are targeted by pulmonary vein isolation (PVI). In patients with persistent AF (n = 14), simultaneous biatrial contact mapping with basket catheters was performed pre-ablation and following each ablation strategy (PVI, roof, and mitral lines). Unipolar wavefront activation directions were averaged over 10 s to identify preferential activation pathways. Clinical cases were classified as responders or non-responders to PVI during the procedure. Clinical data were augmented with a virtual cohort of 100 models. In AF pre-ablation, pathways originated from the pulmonary vein (PV) antra in PVI responders (7/7) but not in PVI non-responders (6/6). We proposed a novel index that measured activation waves from the PV antra into the atrial body. This index was significantly higher in PVI responders than non-responders (clinical: 16.3 vs. 3.7%, p = 0.04; simulated: 21.1 vs. 14.1%, p = 0.02). Overall, this novel technique and proof of concept study demonstrated that preferential activation pathways exist during AF. Targeting patient-specific activation pathways that flowed from the PV antra to the left atrial body using PVI resulted in AF termination during the procedure. These PV activation flow pathways may correspond to the presence of drivers in the PV regions.

MA-SOCRATIS: An automatic pipeline for robust segmentation of the left ventricle and scar.

Multi-atlas segmentation of cardiac regions and total infarct scar (MA-SOCRATIS) is an unsupervised automatic pipeline to segment left ventricular myocardium and scar from late gadolinium enhanced MR images (LGE-MRI) of the heart. We implement two different pipelines for myocardial and scar segmentation from short axis LGE-MRI. Myocardial segmentation has two steps; initial segmentation and re-estimation. The initial segmentation step makes a first estimate of myocardium boundaries by using multi-atlas segmentation techniques. The re-estimation step refines the myocardial segmentation by a combination of k-means clustering and a geometric median shape variation technique. An active contour technique determines the unhealthy and healthy myocardial wall. The scar segmentation pipeline is a combination of a Rician-Gaussian mixture model and full width at half maximum (FWHM) thresholding, to determine the intensity pixels in scar regions. Following this step a watershed method with an automatic seed-points framework segments the final scar region. MA-SOCRATIS was evaluated using two different datasets. In both datasets ground truths were based on manual segmentation of short axis images from LGE-MRI scans. The first dataset included 40 patients from the MS-CMRSeg 2019 challenge dataset (STACOM at MICCAI 2019). The second is a collection of 20 patients with scar regions that are challenging to segment. MA-SOCRATIS achieved robust and accurate performance in automatic segmentation of myocardium and scar regions without the need of training or tuning in both cohorts, compared with state-of-the-art techniques (intra-observer and inter observer myocardium segmentation: 81.9% and 70% average Dice value, and scar (intra-observer and inter observer segmentation: 70.5% and 70.5% average Dice value).

Bayesian Calibration of Electrophysiology Models Using Restitution Curve Emulators.

Calibration of cardiac electrophysiology models is a fundamental aspect of model personalization for predicting the outcomes of cardiac therapies, simulation testing of device performance for a range of phenotypes, and for fundamental research into cardiac function. Restitution curves provide information on tissue function and can be measured using clinically feasible measurement protocols. We introduce novel "restitution curve emulators" as probabilistic models for performing model exploration, sensitivity analysis, and Bayesian calibration to noisy data. These emulators are built by decomposing restitution curves using principal component analysis and modeling the resulting coordinates with respect to model parameters using Gaussian processes. Restitution curve emulators can be used to study parameter identifiability via sensitivity analysis of restitution curve components and rapid inference of the posterior distribution of model parameters given noisy measurements. Posterior uncertainty about parameters is critical for making predictions from calibrated models, since many parameter settings can be consistent with measured data and yet produce very different model behaviors under conditions not effectively probed by the measurement protocols. Restitution curve emulators are therefore promising probabilistic tools for calibrating electrophysiology models.

An audit of uncertainty in multi-scale cardiac electrophysiology models.

Models of electrical activation and recovery in cardiac cells and tissue have become valuable research tools, and are beginning to be used in safety-critical applications including guidance for clinical procedures and for drug safety assessment. As a consequence, there is an urgent need for a more detailed and quantitative understanding of the ways that uncertainty and variability influence model predictions. In this paper, we review the sources of uncertainty in these models at different spatial scales, discuss how uncertainties are communicated across scales, and begin to assess their relative importance. We conclude by highlighting important challenges that continue to face the cardiac modelling community, identifying open questions, and making recommendations for future studies. This article is part of the theme issue 'Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation'.

Gaussian process manifold interpolation for probabilistic atrial activation maps and uncertain conduction velocity.

In patients with atrial fibrillation, local activation time (LAT) maps are routinely used for characterizing patient pathophysiology. The gradient of LAT maps can be used to calculate conduction velocity (CV), which directly relates to material conductivity and may provide an important measure of atrial substrate properties. Including uncertainty in CV calculations would help with interpreting the reliability of these measurements. Here, we build upon a recent insight into reduced-rank Gaussian processes (GPs) to perform probabilistic interpolation of uncertain LAT directly on human atrial manifolds. Our Gaussian process manifold interpolation (GPMI) method accounts for the topology of the atrium, and allows for calculation of statistics for predicted CV. We demonstrate our method on two clinical cases, and perform validation against a simulated ground truth. CV uncertainty depends on data density, wave propagation direction and CV magnitude. GPMI is suitable for probabilistic interpolation of other uncertain quantities on non-Euclidean manifolds. This article is part of the theme issue 'Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation'.

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Two Human Atrial Cardiac Cell Models Using Gaussian Process Emulators.

Biophysically detailed cardiac cell models reconstruct the action potential and calcium dynamics of cardiac myocytes. They aim to capture the biophysics of current flow through ion channels, pumps, and exchangers in the cell membrane, and are highly detailed. However, the relationship between model parameters and model outputs is difficult to establish because the models are both complex and non-linear. The consequences of uncertainty and variability in model parameters are therefore difficult to determine without undertaking large numbers of model evaluations. The aim of the present study was to demonstrate how sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using Gaussian process emulators can be used for a systematic and quantitive analysis of biophysically detailed cardiac cell models. We selected the Courtemanche and Maleckar models of the human atrial action potential for analysis because these models describe a similar set of currents, with different formulations. In our approach Gaussian processes emulate the main features of the action potential and calcium transient. The emulators were trained with a set of design data comprising samples from parameter space and corresponding model outputs, initially obtained from 300 model evaluations. Variance based sensitivity indices were calculated using the emulators, and first order and total effect indices were calculated for each combination of parameter and output. The differences between the first order and total effect indices indicated that the effect of interactions between parameters was small. A second set of emulators were then trained using a new set of design data with a subset of the model parameters with a sensitivity index of more than 0.1 (10%). This second stage analysis enabled comparison of mechanisms in the two models. The second stage sensitivity indices enabled the relationship between the L-type Ca 2+ current and the action potential plateau to be quantified in each model. Our quantitative analysis predicted that changes in maximum conductance of the ultra-rapid K + channel I Kur would have opposite effects on action potential duration in the two models, and this prediction was confirmed by additional simulations. This study has demonstrated that Gaussian process emulators are an effective tool for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of biophysically detailed cardiac cell models.

Quantifying atrial anatomy uncertainty from clinical data and its impact on electro-physiology simulation predictions.

Patient-specific computational models of structure and function are increasingly being used to diagnose disease and predict how a patient will respond to therapy. Models of anatomy are often derived after segmentation of clinical images or from mapping systems which are affected by image artefacts, resolution and contrast. Quantifying the impact of uncertain anatomy on model predictions is important, as models are increasingly used in clinical practice where decisions need to be made regardless of image quality. We use a Bayesian probabilistic approach to estimate the anatomy and to quantify the uncertainty about the shape of the left atrium derived from Cardiac Magnetic Resonance images. We show that we can quantify uncertain shape, encode uncertainty about the left atrial shape due to imaging artefacts, and quantify the effect of uncertain shape on simulations of left atrial activation times.