Planning for ex situ conservation in the face of uncertainty.

Ex situ conservation strategies for threatened species often require long-term commitment and financial investment to achieve management objectives. We present a framework that considers the decision to adopt ex situ management for a target species as the end point of several linked decisions. We used a decision tree to intuitively represent the logical sequence of decision making. The first decision is to identify the specific management actions most likely to achieve the fundamental objectives of the recovery plan, with or without the use of ex-situ populations. Once this decision has been made, one decides whether to establish an ex situ population, accounting for the probability of success in the initial phase of the recovery plan, for example, the probability of successful breeding in captivity. Approaching these decisions in the reverse order (attempting to establish an ex situ population before its purpose is clearly defined) can lead to a poor allocation of resources, because it may restrict the range of available decisions in the second stage. We applied our decision framework to the recovery program for the threatened spotted tree frog (Litoria spenceri) of southeastern Australia. Across a range of possible management actions, only those including ex situ management were expected to provide >50% probability of the species' persistence, but these actions cost more than use of in situ alternatives only. The expected benefits of ex situ actions were predicted to be offset by additional uncertainty and stochasticity associated with establishing and maintaining ex situ populations. Naïvely implementing ex situ conservation strategies can lead to inefficient management. Our framework may help managers explicitly evaluate objectives, management options, and the probability of success prior to establishing a captive colony of any given species.

Refugia and connectivity sustain amphibian metapopulations afflicted by disease.

Metapopulation persistence in fragmented landscapes depends on habitat patches that can support resilient local populations and sufficient connectivity between patches. Yet epidemiological theory for metapopulations has largely overlooked the capacity of particular patches to act as refuges from disease, and has suggested that connectivity can undermine persistence. Here, we show that relatively warm and saline wetlands are environmental refuges from chytridiomycosis for an endangered Australian frog, and act jointly with connectivity to sustain frog metapopulations. We coupled models of microclimate and infection probability to map chytrid prevalence, and demonstrate a strong negative relationship between chytrid prevalence and the persistence of frog populations. Simulations confirm that frog metapopulations are likely to go extinct when they lack environmental refuges from disease and lose connectivity between patches. This study demonstrates that environmental heterogeneity can mediate host-pathogen interactions in fragmented landscapes, and provides evidence that connectivity principally supports host metapopulations afflicted by facultative pathogens.

Phylogenetic evidence of historic mitochondrial introgression and cryptic diversity in the genus Pseudemoia (Squamata: Scincidae).

The Australian scincid genus Pseudemoia comprises six morphologically similar species restricted to temperate south-eastern Australia. Due to the high degree of morphological conservatism, phylogenetic relationships and taxonomic status within the Pseudemoia entrecasteauxii complex (comprising the nominal species P. entrecasteauxii, P. cryodroma, and P. pagenstecheri) remains unresolved. To further investigate the phylogenetic relationships and taxonomic status of Pseudemoia spp., and to test the hypothesis that P. cryodroma evolved from hybridization between P. entrecasteauxii and P. pagenstecheri, we sequenced one mitochondrial locus (ND4) and five nuclear loci (ß-globin, LGMN, PRLR, Rhodopsin, RPS8). While we find strong support for the monophyly of the P. entrecasteauxii complex, there exists marked incongruence between the mitochondrial and nuclear markers, particularly in regards to the high altitude specialist, P. cryodroma. The most parsimonious explanation of this discordance is historic mitochondrial introgression, although a hybrid origin for P. cryodroma cannot be completely rejected. Within P. pagenstecheri sensu lato, we identified a strongly supported, highly divergent yet morphologically cryptic lineage restricted to northern New South Wales. Although more weakly supported by the nuDNA, we also identified a second geographically distinct lineage of P. pagenstecheri s.l., which may warrant separate conservation management. Our study reveals a more complex evolutionary history of the genus Pseudemoia than previously appreciated and contributes to our understanding of the biogeography and evolution of Australian mesic zone fauna.

Wetland characteristics influence disease risk for a threatened amphibian.

Identifying determinants of the probability and intensity of infections is important for understanding the epidemiology of wildlife diseases, and for managing their impact on threatened species. Chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, has decimated populations of some amphibians. However, recent studies have identified important environmental constraints on the disease, related to the pathogen's physiological tolerances. In this study, we identified several intrinsic and extrinsic determinants of the probability and intensity of chytrid infections for the threatened growling grass frog (Litoria raniformis) in southeastern Australia, and used mark-recapture to estimate the effect of chytrid infections on the probability of survival of these frogs. Water temperature and salinity had negative effects on both the probability and intensity of chytrid infections. We coupled models of the infection process with a model of the effect of chytrid infections on the probability of survival to assess variation in the impact of chytridiomycosis between wetlands with differing temperature and salinity profiles. Our results suggest that warm, saline wetlands may be refuges from chytridiomycosis for L. raniformis, and should be priorities for protection. Our results also suggest that management actions that increase water temperature (e.g., reducing canopy shading) and salinity (e.g., complementing inflows with groundwater) could be trialed to reduce the impacts of chytridiomycosis on this species. This and other recent studies highlight the value of research on environmental risk factors for chytridiomycosis.

Historical biogeography, phylogenetic relationships and intraspecific diversity of agamid lizards in the Central Asian deserts of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

The Central Asian agamid lizards are ecologically and morphologically diverse, occurring across a broad range of desert environments in this biogeographically important region. It is probable that past climatic shifts have significantly influenced the diversification patterns and distributions of the agamid lizards of this region. To assess this within a phylogenetic framework we sequenced a approximately 1200 bp region of mitochondrial DNA and a approximately 1200 bp nuclear gene (RAG-1), incorporating both inter- and intraspecific sampling across Central Asian agamids. Our topology and divergence time estimates support an Eocene origin of the Agaminae subfamily on the Indian subcontinent, coinciding with the collision of India into Eurasia. The onset of aridification in Central Asia during the Late Oligocene, resulting from the retreat of the Paratethys Sea and the intensified uplift of the Tibetan-Himalayan complex, probably played an important role in the diversification of Phrynocephalus, one of the three genera studied. Intensification of aridity and geologic events in the Plio-Pleistocene and Quaternary glacial cycling probably had a significant influence on intraspecific diversification patterns within Phrynocephalus.