A global biological conservation horizon scan of issues for 2023.

We present the results of our 14th horizon scan of issues we expect to influence biological conservation in the future. From an initial set of 102 topics, our global panel of 30 scientists and practitioners identified 15 issues we consider most urgent for societies worldwide to address. Issues are novel within biological conservation or represent a substantial positive or negative step change at global or regional scales. Issues such as submerged artificial light fisheries and accelerating upper ocean currents could have profound negative impacts on marine or coastal ecosystems. We also identified potentially positive technological advances, including energy production and storage, improved fertilisation methods, and expansion of biodegradable materials. If effectively managed, these technologies could realise future benefits for biological diversity.

Niche partitioning in a guild of invasive mammalian predators.

Predators compete aggressively for resources, establishing trophic hierarchies that influence ecosystem structure. Competitive interactions are particularly important in invaded ecosystems where introduced predators can suppress native prey species. We investigated whether niche partitioning exists within a guild of invasive mammalian predators and determined the consequences for native species. Over 4405 camera-trap days, we assessed interactions among three invasive predators: two apex predators (feral cats Felis catus and ferrets Mustela furo) and a mesopredator (stoats Mustela erminea), in relation to their primary prey (lagomorphs, rodents and birds) and habitat use. Further, we tested for mesopredator release by selectively removing cats and ferrets in a pulse perturbation experiment. We found compelling evidence of niche partitioning; spatiotemporal activity of apex predators maximized access to abundant invasive prey, with ferrets targeting lagomorphs and cats targeting rodents. Mesopredators adjusted their behavior to reduce the risk of interference competition, thereby restricting access to abundant prey but increasing predation pressure on diurnal native birds. Stoats were only recorded at the treatment site after both larger predators were removed, becoming the most frequently detected predator at 6 months post-perturbation. We suggest there is spatial and resource partitioning within the invasive predator guild, but that this is incomplete, and avoidance is achieved by temporal partitioning within overlapping areas. Niche partitioning among invasive predators facilitates coexistence, but simultaneously intensifies predation pressure on vulnerable native species.

Exploiting interspecific olfactory communication to monitor predators.

Olfaction is the primary sense of many mammals and subordinate predators use this sense to detect dominant species, thereby reducing the risk of an encounter and facilitating coexistence. Chemical signals can act as repellents or attractants and may therefore have applications for wildlife management. We devised a field experiment to investigate whether dominant predator (ferret Mustela furo) body odor would alter the behavior of three common mesopredators: stoats (Mustela erminea), hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus), and ship rats (Rattus rattus). We predicted that apex predator odor would lead to increased detections, and our results support this hypothesis as predator kairomones (interspecific olfactory messages that benefit the receiver) provoked "eavesdropping" behavior by mesopredators. Stoats exhibited the most pronounced responses, with kairomones significantly increasing the number of observations and the time spent at a site, so that their occupancy estimates changed from rare to widespread. Behavioral responses to predator odors can therefore be exploited for conservation and this avenue of research has not yet been extensively explored. A long-life lure derived from apex predator kairomones could have practical value, especially when there are plentiful resources that reduce the efficiency of food-based lures. Our results have application for pest management in New Zealand and the technique of using kairomones to monitor predators could have applications for conservation efforts worldwide.

Quantifying the direct transfer costs of common brushtail possum dispersal using least-cost modelling: a combined cost-surface and accumulated-cost dispersal kernel approach.

Dispersal costs need to be quantified from empirical data and incorporated into dispersal models to improve our understanding of the dispersal process. We are interested in quantifying how landscape features affect the immediately incurred direct costs associated with the transfer of an organism from one location to another. We propose that least-cost modelling is one method that can be used to quantify direct transfer costs. By representing the landscape as a cost-surface, which describes the costs associated with traversing different landscape features, least-cost modelling is often applied to measure connectivity between locations in accumulated-cost units that are a combination of both the distance travelled and the costs traversed. However, we take an additional step by defining an accumulated-cost dispersal kernel, which describes the probability of dispersal in accumulated-cost units. This novel combination of cost-surface and accumulated-cost dispersal kernel enables the transfer stage of dispersal to incorporate the effects of landscape features by modifying the direction of dispersal based on the cost-surface and the distance of dispersal based on the accumulated-cost dispersal kernel. We apply this approach to the common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) within the North Island of New Zealand, demonstrating how commonly collected empirical dispersal data can be used to calibrate a cost-surface and associated accumulated-cost dispersal kernel. Our results indicate that considerable improvements could be made to the modelling of the transfer stage of possum dispersal by using a cost-surface and associated accumulated-cost dispersal kernel instead of a more traditional straight-line distance based dispersal kernel. We envisage a variety of ways in which the information from this novel combination of a cost-surface and accumulated-cost dispersal kernel could be gainfully incorporated into existing dispersal models. This would enable more realistic modelling of the direct transfer costs associated with the dispersal process, without requiring existing dispersal models to be abandoned.

Maternal influence on philopatry and space use by juvenile brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula).

1. The causes of juvenile sex-biased philopatry and space use in mammals remain poorly understood, and results of previous research have been conflicting. Experimental interventions and manipulations on wild populations are rare, but can play an important role in establishing the factors governing offspring space use. 2. We experimentally removed mothers of independent juvenile brushtail possums from the maternal home range and examined changes in offspring space use with global positioning system collars. We examined the influence of mother absence on philopatric behaviour, and determined whether or not maternal presence affected offspring space use. 3. We fitted a longitudinal linear mixed effects model to demonstrate a change over time in the home range size of juveniles following experimental treatment by the removal of their mothers. When mothers were removed from the natal range, juveniles occupied significantly larger home range areas, with average increases of 175% in 95% kernel density estimates and 289% in minimum convex polygon estimates. This increase occurred within the first month following mother absence and was independent of juvenile sex. Home ranges of control juveniles did not change during the same time period. 4. Changes in the spatial structure of mammalian populations in response to removal of individuals have important implications for pest management. The impacts of management strategies which target particular individuals in a population may counteract conservation benefits through their effect on the space use of survivors. Studies involving experimental removals provide important information on consequences of control and also yield insights into the causes of mammalian space use, philopatric behaviours and ultimately dispersal.

Spatial heterogeneity of mesopredator release within an oceanic island system.

Predator-prey communities are ubiquitous in ecology, but introduced predators can drive native species to extinction within island systems, prompting the eradication of such exotics. Ecological theory predicts that elimination of top-introduced predators from islands can lead to the counterintuitive decline of native prey populations through the ecological release of smaller introduced species in a process termed "mesopredator release." We show, in accordance with mesopredator release theory and counter to conservation goals for a New Zealand island reserve, that initial eradication of cats on Little Barrier Island led to reduced breeding success of Cook's petrels, which also are vulnerable to predation by a mesopredator, the Pacific rat. The rat's impact on prey productivity varied with elevation within the island. Rat eradication was followed by a rise in petrel productivity, in support of both ecological theory and practical conservation management goals. It appears that interactions among introduced predators, native prey, and environmental gradients can drive counterintuitive and spatially heterogeneous responses to predator eradications from islands. Location-specific, ecosystem-level understanding is essential for predicting the outcomes of such restoration management techniques.

Sex allocation theory aids species conservation.

Supplementary feeding is often a key tool in the intensive management of captive and threatened species. Although it can increase such parameters as breeding frequency and individual survival, supplementary feeding may produce undesirable side effects that increase overall extinction risk. Recent attempts to increase breeding frequency and success in the kakapo Strigops habroptilus using supplementary feeding inadvertently resulted in highly male-biased chick sex ratios. Here, we describe how the inclusion of sex allocation theory has remedied this conservation dilemma. Our study is the first to manipulate chick sex ratios in an endangered species by altering maternal condition and highlights the importance of incorporating evolutionary theory into modern conservation practice.

Intercepting the first rat ashore.

A single Norway rat released on to a rat-free island was not caught for more than four months, despite intensive efforts to trap it. The rat first explored the 9.5-hectare island and then swam 400 metres across open water to another rat-free island, evading capture for 18 weeks until an aggressive combination of detection and trapping methods were deployed simultaneously. The exceptional difficulty of this capture indicates that methods normally used to eradicate rats in dense populations are unlikely to be effective on small numbers, a finding that could have global implications for conservation on protected islands.