Transformation of coral communities subjected to an unprecedented heatwave is modulated by local disturbance.

Corals are imminently threatened by climate change-amplified marine heatwaves. However, how to conserve coral reefs remains unclear, since those without local anthropogenic disturbances often seem equally or more susceptible to thermal stress as impacted ones. We disentangle this apparent paradox, revealing that the relationship between reef disturbance and heatwave impacts depends upon the scale of biological organization. We show that a tropical heatwave of globally unprecedented duration (~1 year) culminated in an 89% loss of hard coral cover. At the community level, losses depended on pre-heatwave community structure, with undisturbed sites, which were dominated by competitive corals, undergoing the greatest losses. In contrast, at the species level, survivorship of individual corals typically declined as local disturbance intensified. Our study reveals both that prolonged heatwaves projected under climate change will still have winners and losers and that local disturbance can impair survival of coral species even under such extreme conditions.

Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects.

Climate variability in the tropical Pacific affects global climate on a wide range of time scales. On interannual time scales, the tropical Pacific is home to the El Niño­Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Decadal variations and changes in the tropical Pacific, referred to here collectively as tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV), also profoundly affect the climate system. Here, we use TPDV to refer to any form of decadal climate variability or change that occurs in the atmosphere, the ocean, and over land within the tropical Pacific. "Decadal," which we use in a broad sense to encompass multiyear through multidecadal time scales, includes variability about the mean state on decadal time scales, externally forced mean-state changes that unfold on decadal time scales, and decadal variations in the behavior of higher-frequency modes like ENSO.

Translating a Global Emission-Reduction Framework for Subnational Climate Action: A Case Study from the State of Georgia.

Subnational entities are recognizing the need to systematically examine options for reducing their carbon footprints. However, few robust and comprehensive analyses are available that lay out how US states and regions can most effectively contribute. This paper describes an approach developed for Georgia-a state in the southeastern United States called "Drawdown Georgia", our research involves (1) understanding Georgia's baseline carbon footprint and trends, (2) identifying the universe of Georgia-specific carbon-reduction solutions that could be impactful by 2030, (3) estimating the greenhouse gas reduction potential of these high-impact 2030 solutions for Georgia, and (4) estimating associated costs and benefits while also considering how the solutions might impact societal priorities, such as economic development opportunities, public health, environmental benefits, and equity. We began by examining the global solutions identified by Project Drawdown. The resulting 20 high-impact 2030 solutions provide a strategy for reducing Georgia's carbon footprint in the next decade using market-ready technologies and practices and including negative emission solutions. This paper describes our systematic and replicable process and ends with a discussion of its strengths, weaknesses, and planned future research.

Dynamic symbioses reveal pathways to coral survival through prolonged heatwaves.

Prospects for coral persistence through increasingly frequent and extended heatwaves seem bleak. Coral recovery from bleaching is only known to occur after temperatures return to normal, and mitigation of local stressors does not appear to augment coral survival. Capitalizing on a natural experiment in the equatorial Pacific, we track individual coral colonies at sites spanning a gradient of local anthropogenic disturbance through a tropical heatwave of unprecedented duration. Unexpectedly, some corals survived the event by recovering from bleaching while still at elevated temperatures. These corals initially had heat-sensitive algal symbiont communities, endured bleaching, and then recovered through proliferation of heat-tolerant symbionts. This pathway to survival only occurred in the absence of strong local stressors. In contrast, corals in highly disturbed areas were already dominated by heat-tolerant symbionts, and despite initially resisting bleaching, these corals had no survival advantage in one species and 3.3 times lower survival in the other. These unanticipated connections between disturbance, coral symbioses and heat stress resilience reveal multiple pathways to coral survival through future prolonged heatwaves.

Response to Comment on "No consistent ENSO response to volcanic forcing over the last millennium".

Robock claims that our analysis fails to acknowledge that pan-tropical surface cooling caused by large volcanic eruptions may mask El Niño warming at our central Pacific site, potentially obscuring a volcano-El Niño connection suggested in previous studies. Although observational support for a dynamical response linking volcanic cooling to El Niño remains ambiguous, Robock raises some important questions about our study that we address here.

No consistent ENSO response to volcanic forcing over the last millennium.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shapes global climate patterns yet its sensitivity to external climate forcing remains uncertain. Modeling studies suggest that ENSO is sensitive to sulfate aerosol forcing associated with explosive volcanism but observational support for this effect remains ambiguous. Here, we used absolutely dated fossil corals from the central tropical Pacific to gauge ENSO's response to large volcanic eruptions of the last millennium. Superposed epoch analysis reveals a weak tendency for an El Niño-like response in the year after an eruption, but this response is not statistically significant, nor does it appear after the outsized 1257 Samalas eruption. Our results suggest that those models showing a strong ENSO response to volcanic forcing may overestimate the size of the forced response relative to natural ENSO variability.

Data Descriptor: Daily observations of stable isotope ratios of rainfall in the tropics.

We present precipitation isotope data (δ2H and δ18O values) from 19 stations across the tropics collected from 2012 to 2017 under the Coordinated Research Project F31004 sponsored by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Rainfall samples were collected daily and analysed for stable isotopic ratios of oxygen and hydrogen by participating laboratories following a common analytical framework. We also calculated daily mean stratiform rainfall area fractions around each station over an area of 5° x 5° longitude/latitude based on TRMM/GPM satellite data. Isotope time series, along with information on rainfall amount and stratiform/convective proportions provide a valuable tool for rainfall characterisation and to improve the ability of isotope-enabled Global Circulation Models to predict variability and availability of inputs to fresh water resources across the tropics.

Deciphering key processes controlling rainfall isotopic variability during extreme tropical cyclones.

The Mesoamerican and Caribbean (MAC) region is characterized by tropical cyclones (TCs), strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation events, and climate variability that bring unique hazards to socio-ecological systems. Here we report the first characterization of the isotopic evolution of a TC (Hurricane Otto, 2016) in the MAC region. We use long-term daily rainfall isotopes from Costa Rica and event-based sampling of Hurricanes Irma and Maria (2017), to underpin the dynamical drivers of TC isotope ratios. During Hurricane Otto, rainfall exhibited a large isotopic range, comparable to the annual isotopic cycle. As Hurricane Otto organized into a Category 3, rapid isotopic depletion coupled with a decrease in d-excess indicates efficient isotopic fractionation within ~200 km SW of the warm core. Our results shed light on key processes governing rainfall isotope ratios in the MAC region during continental and maritime TC tracks, with applications to the interpretation of paleo-hydroclimate across the tropics.

Author Correction: El Niño-Southern Oscillation complexity.

In this Review, the middle initial of author Kim M. Cobb was omitted. The original Review has been corrected online.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation complexity.

El Niño events are characterized by surface warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean and weakening of equatorial trade winds that occur every few years. Such conditions are accompanied by changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation, affecting global climate, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, fisheries and human activities. The alternation of warm El Niño and cold La Niña conditions, referred to as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), represents the strongest year-to-year fluctuation of the global climate system. Here we provide a synopsis of our current understanding of the spatio-temporal complexity of this important climate mode and its influence on the Earth system.

Climate research priorities for policy-makers, practitioners, and scientists in Georgia, USA.

Climate change has far-reaching effects on human and ecological systems, requiring collaboration across sectors and disciplines to determine effective responses. To inform regional responses to climate change, decision-makers need credible and relevant information representing a wide swath of knowledge and perspectives. The southeastern U. S. State of Georgia is a valuable focal area for study because it contains multiple ecological zones that vary greatly in land use and economic activities, and it is vulnerable to diverse climate change impacts. We identified 40 important research questions that, if answered, could lay the groundwork for effective, science-based climate action in Georgia. Top research priorities were identified through a broad solicitation of candidate research questions (180 were received). A group of experts across sectors and disciplines gathered for a workshop to categorize, prioritize, and filter the candidate questions, identify missing topics, and rewrite questions. Participants then collectively chose the 40 most important questions. This cross-sectoral effort ensured the inclusion of a diversity of topics and questions (e.g., coastal hazards, agricultural production, ecosystem functioning, urban infrastructure, and human health) likely to be important to Georgia policy-makers, practitioners, and scientists. Several cross-cutting themes emerged, including the need for long-term data collection and consideration of at-risk Georgia citizens and communities. Workshop participants defined effective responses as those that take economic cost, environmental impacts, and social justice into consideration. Our research highlights the importance of collaborators across disciplines and sectors, and discussing challenges and opportunities that will require transdisciplinary solutions.

Greening of the Sahara suppressed ENSO activity during the mid-Holocene.

The evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the Holocene remains uncertain. In particular, a host of new paleoclimate records suggest that ENSO internal variability or other external forcings may have dwarfed the fairly modest ENSO response to precessional insolation changes simulated in climate models. Here, using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations, we show that accounting for a vegetated and less dusty Sahara during the mid-Holocene relative to preindustrial climate can reduce ENSO variability by 25%, more than twice the decrease obtained using orbital forcing alone. We identify changes in tropical Atlantic mean state and variability caused by the momentous strengthening of the West Africa Monsoon (WAM) as critical factors in amplifying ENSO's response to insolation forcing through changes in the Walker circulation. Our results thus suggest that potential changes in the WAM due to anthropogenic warming may influence ENSO variability in the future as well.

Recent enhancement of central Pacific El Niño variability relative to last eight centuries.

The far-reaching impacts of central Pacific El Niño events on global climate differ appreciably from those associated with eastern Pacific El Niño events. Central Pacific El Niño events may become more frequent in coming decades as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations rise, but the instrumental record of central Pacific sea-surface temperatures is too short to detect potential trends. Here we present an annually resolved reconstruction of NIÑO4 sea-surface temperature, located in the central equatorial Pacific, based on oxygen isotopic time series from Taiwan tree cellulose that span from 1190 AD to 2007 AD. Our reconstruction indicates that relatively warm Niño4 sea-surface temperature values over the late twentieth century are accompanied by higher levels of interannual variability than observed in other intervals of the 818-year-long reconstruction. Our results imply that anthropogenic greenhouse forcing may be driving an increase in central Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability and/or its hydrological impacts, consistent with recent modelling studies.

Spatiotemporal variability in the δ18O-salinity relationship of seawater across the tropical Pacific Ocean.

The relationship between salinity and the stable oxygen isotope ratio of seawater (δ18Osw) is of utmost importance to the quantitative reconstruction of past changes in salinity from δ18O values of marine carbonates. This relationship is often considered to be uniform across water masses, but the constancy of the δ18Osw-salinity relationship across space and time remains uncertain, as δ18Osw responds to varying atmospheric vapor sources and pathways, while salinity does not. Here we present new δ18Osw-salinity data from sites spanning the tropical Pacific Ocean. New data from Palau, Papua New Guinea, Kiritimati, and Galápagos show slopes ranging from 0.09 ‰/psu in the Galápagos to 0.32‰/psu in Palau. The slope of the δ18Osw-salinity relationship is higher in the western tropical Pacific versus the eastern tropical Pacific in observations and in two isotope-enabled climate models. A comparison of δ18Osw-salinity relationships derived from short-term spatial surveys and multi-year time series at Papua New Guinea and Galápagos suggests spatial relationships can be substituted for temporal relationships at these sites, at least within the time period of the investigation. However, the δ18Osw-salinity relationship varied temporally at Palau, likely in response to water mass changes associated with interannual El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, suggesting nonstationarity in this local δ18Osw-salinity relationship. Applying local δ18Osw-salinity relationships in a coral δ18O forward model shows that using a constant, basin-wide δ18Osw-salinity slope can both overestimate and underestimate the contribution of δ18Osw to carbonate δ18O variance at individual sites in the western tropical Pacific.

Varied response of western Pacific hydrology to climate forcings over the last glacial period.

Atmospheric deep convection in the west Pacific plays a key role in the global heat and moisture budgets, yet its response to orbital and abrupt climate change events is poorly resolved. Here, we present four absolutely dated, overlapping stalagmite oxygen isotopic records from northern Borneo that span most of the last glacial cycle. The records suggest that northern Borneo's hydroclimate shifted in phase with precessional forcing but was only weakly affected by glacial-interglacial changes in global climate boundary conditions. Regional convection likely decreased during Heinrich events, but other Northern Hemisphere abrupt climate change events are notably absent. The new records suggest that the deep tropical Pacific hydroclimate variability may have played an important role in shaping the global response to the largest abrupt climate change events.

Highly variable El Niño-Southern Oscillation throughout the Holocene.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives large changes in global climate patterns from year to year, yet its sensitivity to continued anthropogenic greenhouse forcing is uncertain. We analyzed fossil coral reconstructions of ENSO spanning the past 7000 years from the Northern Line Islands, located in the center of action for ENSO. The corals document highly variable ENSO activity, with no evidence for a systematic trend in ENSO variance, which is contrary to some models that exhibit a response to insolation forcing over this same period. Twentieth-century ENSO variance is significantly higher than average fossil coral ENSO variance but is not unprecedented. Our results suggest that forced changes in ENSO, whether natural or anthropogenic, may be difficult to detect against a background of large internal variability.

Millennial-scale trends in west Pacific warm pool hydrology since the Last Glacial Maximum.

Models and palaeoclimate data suggest that the tropical Pacific climate system plays a key part in the mechanisms underlying orbital-scale and abrupt climate change. Atmospheric convection over the western tropical Pacific is a major source of heat and moisture to extratropical regions, and may therefore influence the global climate response to a variety of forcing factors. The response of tropical Pacific convection to changes in global climate boundary conditions, abrupt climate changes and radiative forcing remains uncertain, however. Here we present three absolutely dated oxygen isotope records from stalagmites in northern Borneo that reflect changes in west Pacific warm pool hydrology over the past 27,000 years. Our results suggest that convection over the western tropical Pacific weakened 18,000-20,000 years ago, as tropical Pacific and Antarctic temperatures began to rise during the early stages of deglaciation. Convective activity, as inferred from oxygen isotopes, reached a minimum during Heinrich event 1 (ref. 10), when the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation was weak, pointing to feedbacks between the strength of the overturning circulation and tropical Pacific hydrology. There is no evidence of the Younger Dryas event in the stalagmite records, however, suggesting that different mechanisms operated during these two abrupt deglacial climate events. During the Holocene epoch, convective activity appears to track changes in spring and autumn insolation, highlighting the sensitivity of tropical Pacific convection to external radiative forcing. Together, these findings demonstrate that the tropical Pacific hydrological cycle is sensitive to high-latitude climate processes in both hemispheres, as well as to external radiative forcing, and that it may have a central role in abrupt climate change events.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation and tropical Pacific climate during the last millennium.

Any assessment of future climate change requires knowledge of the full range of natural variability in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Here we splice together fossil-coral oxygen isotopic records from Palmyra Island in the tropical Pacific Ocean to provide 30-150-year windows of tropical Pacific climate variability within the last 1,100 years. The records indicate mean climate conditions in the central tropical Pacific ranging from relatively cool and dry during the tenth century to increasingly warmer and wetter climate in the twentieth century. But the corals also document a broad range of ENSO behaviour that correlates poorly with these estimates of mean climate. The most intense ENSO activity within the reconstruction occurred during the mid-seventeenth century. Taken together, the coral data imply that the majority of ENSO variability over the last millennium may have arisen from dynamics internal to the ENSO system itself.