The Wound Environment Agent-based Model (WEABM): a digital twin platform for characterization and complex therapeutic discovery for volumetric muscle loss.

Volumetric Muscle Loss (VML) injuries are characterized by significant loss of muscle mass, usually due to trauma or surgical resection, often with a residual open wound in clinical settings and subsequent loss of limb function due to the replacement of the lost muscle mass with non-functional scar. Being able to regrow functional muscle in VML injuries is a complex control problem that needs to override robust, evolutionarily conserved healing processes aimed at rapidly closing the defect in lieu of restoration of function. We propose that discovering and implementing this complex control can be accomplished by the development of a Medical Digital Twin of VML. Digital Twins (DTs) are the subject of a recent report from the National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine (NASEM), which provides guidance as to the definition, capabilities and research challenges associated with the development and implementation of DTs. Specifically, DTs are defined as dynamic computational models that can be personalized to an individual real world "twin" and are connected to that twin via an ongoing data link. DTs can be used to provide control on the real-world twin that is, by the ongoing data connection, adaptive. We have developed an anatomic scale cell-level agent-based model of VML termed the Wound Environment Agent Based Model (WEABM) that can serve as the computational specification for a DT of VML. Simulations of the WEABM provided fundamental insights into the biology of VML, and we used the WEABM in our previously developed pipeline for simulation-based Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to train an artificial intelligence (AI) to implement a robust generalizable control policy aimed at increasing the healing of VML with functional muscle. The insights into VML obtained include: 1) a competition between fibrosis and myogenesis due to spatial constraints on available edges of intact myofibrils to initiate the myoblast differentiation process, 2) the need to biologically "close" the wound from atmospheric/environmental exposure, which represents an ongoing inflammatory stimulus that promotes fibrosis and 3) that selective, multimodal and adaptive local mediator-level control can shift the trajectory of healing away from a highly evolutionarily beneficial imperative to close the wound via fibrosis. Control discovery with the WEABM identified the following design principles: 1) multimodal adaptive tissue-level mediator control to mitigate pro-inflammation as well as the pro-fibrotic aspects of compensatory anti-inflammation, 2) tissue-level mediator manipulation to promote myogenesis, 3) the use of an engineered extracellular matrix (ECM) to functionally close the wound and 4) the administration of an anti-fibrotic agent focused on the collagen-producing function of fibroblasts and myofibroblasts. The WEABM-trained DRL AI integrates these control modalities and provides design specifications for a potential device that can implement the required wound sensing and intervention delivery capabilities needed. The proposed cyber-physical system integrates the control AI with a physical sense-and-actuate device that meets the tenets of DTs put forth in the NASEM report and can serve as an example schema for the future development of Medical DTs.

A design specification for Critical Illness Digital Twins (CIDTs) to cure sepsis: responding to the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine Report "Foundational Research Gaps and Future Directions for Digital Twins".

On December 15, 2023, The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine (NASEM) released a report entitled: "Foundational Research Gaps and Future Directions for Digital Twins." The ostensible purpose of this report was to bring some structure to the burgeoning field of digital twins by providing a working definition and a series of research challenges that need to be addressed to allow this technology to fulfill its full potential. In the work presented herein we focus on five specific findings from the NASEM Report: 1) definition of a Digital Twin, 2) using "fit-for-purpose" guidance, 3) developing novel approaches to Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ) of Digital Twins, 4) incorporating control as an explicit purpose for a Digital Twin and 5) using a Digital Twin to guide data collection and sensor development, and describe how these findings are addressed through the design specifications for a Critical Illness Digital Twin (CIDT) aimed at curing sepsis.

Combination Chemotherapy of Multidrug-resistant Early-stage Colon Cancer: Determining Optimal Dose Schedules by High-performance Computer Simulation.

The goal of this project was to utilize mechanistic simulation to demonstrate a methodology that could determine drug combination dose schedules and dose intensities that would be most effective in eliminating multidrug resistant cancer cells in early-stage colon cancer. An agent-based model of cell dynamics in human colon crypts was calibrated using measurements of human biopsy specimens. Mutant cancer cells were simulated as cells that were resistant to each of two drugs when the drugs were used separately. The drugs, 5-flurouracil and sulindac, have different mechanisms of action. An artificial neural network was used to generate nearly two hundred thousand two-drug dose schedules. A high-performance computer simulated each dose schedule as a in silico clinical trial and evaluated each dose schedule for its efficiency to cure (eliminate) multidrug resistant cancer cells and its toxicity to the host, as indicated by continued crypt function. Among the dose schedules that were generated, 2430 dose schedules were found to cure all multidrug resistant mutants in each of the 50 simulated trials and retained colon crypt function. One dose schedule was optimal; it eliminated multidrug resistant cancer cells with the minimum toxicity and had a time schedule that would be practical for implementation in the clinic. These results demonstrate a procedure to identify which combination drug dose schedules could be most effective in eliminating drug resistant cancer cells. This was accomplished using a calibrated agent-based model of a human tissue, and a high-performance computer simulation of clinical trials.

Prediction of Long COVID Based on Severity of Initial COVID-19 Infection: Differences in predictive feature sets between hospitalized versus non-hospitalized index infections.

Long COVID is recognized as a significant consequence of SARS-COV2 infection. While the pathogenesis of Long COVID is still a subject of extensive investigation, there is considerable potential benefit in being able to predict which patients will develop Long COVID. We hypothesize that there would be distinct differences in the prediction of Long COVID based on the severity of the index infection, and use whether the index infection required hospitalization or not as a proxy for developing predictive models. We divide a large population of COVID patients drawn from the United States National Institutes of Health (NIH) National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) Data Enclave Repository into two cohorts based on the severity of their initial COVID-19 illness and correspondingly trained two machine learning models: the Long COVID after Severe Disease Model (LCaSDM) and the Long COVID after Mild Disease Model (LCaMDM). The resulting models performed well on internal validation/testing, with a F1 score of 0.94 for the LCaSDM and 0.82 for the LCaMDM. There were distinct differences in the top 10 features used by each model, possibly reflecting the differences in type and amount of pathophysiological data between the hospitalized and non-hospitalized patients and/or reflecting different pathophysiological trajectories in the development of Long COVID. Of particular interest was the importance of Plant Hardiness Zone in the feature set for the LCaMDM, which may point to a role of climate and/or sunlight in the progression to Long COVID. Future work will involve a more detailed investigation of the potential role of climate and sunlight, as well as refinement of the predictive models as Long COVID becomes increasingly parsed into distinct clinical phenotypes.

Preparing for the next pandemic: Simulation-based deep reinforcement learning to discover and test multimodal control of systemic inflammation using repurposed immunomodulatory agents.

Background: Preparation to address the critical gap in a future pandemic between non-pharmacological measures and the deployment of new drugs/vaccines requires addressing two factors: 1) finding virus/pathogen-agnostic pathophysiological targets to mitigate disease severity and 2) finding a more rational approach to repurposing existing drugs. It is increasingly recognized that acute viral disease severity is heavily driven by the immune response to the infection ("cytokine storm" or "cytokine release syndrome"). There exist numerous clinically available biologics that suppress various pro-inflammatory cytokines/mediators, but it is extremely difficult to identify clinically effective treatment regimens with these agents. We propose that this is a complex control problem that resists standard methods of developing treatment regimens and accomplishing this goal requires the application of simulation-based, model-free deep reinforcement learning (DRL) in a fashion akin to training successful game-playing artificial intelligences (AIs). This proof-of-concept study determines if simulated sepsis (e.g. infection-driven cytokine storm) can be controlled in the absence of effective antimicrobial agents by targeting cytokines for which FDA-approved biologics currently exist. Methods: We use a previously validated agent-based model, the Innate Immune Response Agent-based Model (IIRABM), for control discovery using DRL. DRL training used a Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG) approach with a clinically plausible control interval of 6 hours with manipulation of six cytokines for which there are existing drugs: Tumor Necrosis Factor (TNF), Interleukin-1 (IL-1), Interleukin-4 (IL-4), Interleukin-8 (IL-8), Interleukin-12 (IL-12) and Interferon-γ(IFNg). Results: DRL trained an AI policy that could improve outcomes from a baseline Recovered Rate of 61% to one with a Recovered Rate of 90% over ~21 days simulated time. This DRL policy was then tested on four different parameterizations not seen in training representing a range of host and microbe characteristics, demonstrating a range of improvement in Recovered Rate by +33% to +56. Discussion: The current proof-of-concept study demonstrates that significant disease severity mitigation can potentially be accomplished with existing anti-mediator drugs, but only through a multi-modal, adaptive treatment policy requiring implementation with an AI. While the actual clinical implementation of this approach is a projection for the future, the current goal of this work is to inspire the development of a research ecosystem that marries what is needed to improve the simulation models with the development of the sensing/assay technologies to collect the data needed to iteratively refine those models.

Drug Development Digital Twins for Drug Discovery, Testing and Repurposing: A Schema for Requirements and Development.

There has been a great deal of interest in the concept, development and implementation of medical digital twins. This interest has led to wide ranging perceptions of what constitutes a medical digital twin. This Perspectives article will provide 1) a description of fundamental features of industrial digital twins, the source of the digital twin concept, 2) aspects of biology that challenge the implementation of medical digital twins, 3) a schematic program of how a specific medical digital twin project could be defined, and 4) an example description within that schematic program for a specific type of medical digital twin intended for drug discovery, testing and repurposing, the Drug Development Digital Twin (DDDT).

Transcriptomic, Proteomic, and Morphologic Characterization of Healing in Volumetric Muscle Loss.

Skeletal muscle has a robust, inherent ability to regenerate in response to injury from acute to chronic. In severe trauma, however, complete regeneration is not possible, resulting in a permanent loss of skeletal muscle tissue referred to as volumetric muscle loss (VML). There are few consistently reliable therapeutic or surgical options to address VML. A major limitation in investigation of possible therapies is the absence of a well-characterized large animal model. In this study, we present results of a comprehensive transcriptomic, proteomic, and morphologic characterization of wound healing following VML in a novel canine model of VML which we compare to a nine-patient cohort of combat-associated VML. The canine model is translationally relevant as it provides both a regional (spatial) and temporal map of the wound healing processes that occur in human VML. Collectively, these data show the spatiotemporal transcriptomic, proteomic, and morphologic properties of canine VML healing as a framework and model system applicable to future studies investigating novel therapies for human VML. Impact Statement The spatiotemporal transcriptomic, proteomic, and morphologic properties of canine volumetric muscle loss (VML) healing is a translational framework and model system applicable to future studies investigating novel therapies for human VML.

Preparing for the next COVID: Deep Reinforcement Learning trained Artificial Intelligence discovery of multi-modal immunomodulatory control of systemic inflammation in the absence of effective anti-microbials.

Background: Despite a great deal of interest in the application of artificial intelligence (AI) to sepsis/critical illness, most current approaches are limited in their potential impact: prediction models do not (and cannot) address the lack of effective therapeutics and current approaches to enhancing the treatment of sepsis focus on optimizing the application of existing interventions, and thus cannot address the development of new treatment options/modalities. The inability to test new therapeutic applications was highlighted by the generally unsatisfactory results from drug repurposing efforts in COVID-19. Hypothesis: Addressing this challenge requires the application of simulation-based, model-free deep reinforcement learning (DRL) in a fashion akin to training the game-playing AIs. We have previously demonstrated the potential of this method in the context of bacterial sepsis in which the microbial infection is responsive to antibiotic therapy. The current work addresses the control problem of multi-modal, adaptive immunomodulation in the circumstance where there is no effective anti-pathogen therapy (e.g., in a novel viral pandemic or in the face of resistant microbes). Methods: This is a proof-of-concept study that determines the controllability of sepsis without the ability to pharmacologically suppress the pathogen. We use as a surrogate system a previously validated agent-based model, the Innate Immune Response Agent-based Model (IIRABM), for control discovery using DRL. The DRL algorithm 'trains' an AI on simulations of infection where both the control and observation spaces are limited to operating upon the defined immune mediators included in the IIRABM (a total of 11). Policies were learned using the Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient approach, with the objective function being a return to baseline system health. Results: DRL trained an AI policy that improved system mortality from 85% to 10.4%. Control actions affected every one of the 11 targetable cytokines and could be divided into those with static/unchanging controls and those with variable/adaptive controls. Adaptive controls primarily targeted 3 different aspects of the immune response: 2nd order pro-inflammation governing TH1/TH2 balance, primary anti-inflammation, and inflammatory cell proliferation. Discussion: The current treatment of sepsis is hampered by limitations in therapeutic options able to affect the biology of sepsis. This is heightened in circumstances where no effective antimicrobials exist, as was the case for COVID-19. Current AI methods are intrinsically unable to address this problem; doing so requires training AIs in contexts that fully represent the counterfactual space of potential treatments. The synthetic data needed for this task is only possible through the use of high-resolution, mechanism-based simulations. Finally, being able to treat sepsis will require a reorientation as to the sensing and actuating requirements needed to develop these simulations and bring them to the bedside.

Nested active learning for efficient model contextualization and parameterization: pathway to generating simulated populations using multi-scale computational models.

There is increasing interest in the use of mechanism-based multi-scale computational models (such as agent-based models (ABMs)) to generate simulated clinical populations in order to discover and evaluate potential diagnostic and therapeutic modalities. The description of the environment in which a biomedical simulation operates (model context) and parameterization of internal model rules (model content) requires the optimization of a large number of free parameters. In this work, we utilize a nested active learning (AL) workflow to efficiently parameterize and contextualize an ABM of systemic inflammation used to examine sepsis. Contextual parameter space was examined using four parameters external to the model's rule set. The model's internal parameterization, which represents gene expression and associated cellular behaviors, was explored through the augmentation or inhibition of signaling pathways for 12 signaling mediators associated with inflammation and wound healing. We have implemented a nested AL approach in which the clinically relevant (CR) model environment space for a given internal model parameterization is mapped using a small Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The outer AL level workflow is a larger ANN that uses AL to efficiently regress the volume and centroid location of the CR space given by a single internal parameterization. We have reduced the number of simulations required to efficiently map the CR parameter space of this model by approximately 99%. In addition, we have shown that more complex models with a larger number of variables may expect further improvements in efficiency.

Comparative Computational Modeling of the Bat and Human Immune Response to Viral Infection with the Comparative Biology Immune Agent Based Model.

Given the impact of pandemics due to viruses of bat origin, there is increasing interest in comparative investigation into the differences between bat and human immune responses. The practice of comparative biology can be enhanced by computational methods used for dynamic knowledge representation to visualize and interrogate the putative differences between the two systems. We present an agent based model that encompasses and bridges differences between bat and human responses to viral infection: the comparative biology immune agent based model, or CBIABM. The CBIABM examines differences in innate immune mechanisms between bats and humans, specifically regarding inflammasome activity and type 1 interferon dynamics, in terms of tolerance to viral infection. Simulation experiments with the CBIABM demonstrate the efficacy of bat-related features in conferring viral tolerance and also suggest a crucial role for endothelial inflammasome activity as a mechanism for bat systemic viral tolerance and affecting the severity of disease in human viral infections. We hope that this initial study will inspire additional comparative modeling projects to link, compare, and contrast immunological functions shared across different species, and in so doing, provide insight and aid in preparation for future viral pandemics of zoonotic origin.

Utilizing the Heterogeneity of Clinical Data for Model Refinement and Rule Discovery Through the Application of Genetic Algorithms to Calibrate a High-Dimensional Agent-Based Model of Systemic Inflammation.

Introduction: Accounting for biological heterogeneity represents one of the greatest challenges in biomedical research. Dynamic computational and mathematical models can be used to enhance the study and understanding of biological systems, but traditional methods for calibration and validation commonly do not account for the heterogeneity of biological data, which may result in overfitting and brittleness of these models. Herein we propose a machine learning approach that utilizes genetic algorithms (GAs) to calibrate and refine an agent-based model (ABM) of acute systemic inflammation, with a focus on accounting for the heterogeneity seen in a clinical data set, thereby avoiding overfitting and increasing the robustness and potential generalizability of the underlying simulation model. Methods: Agent-based modeling is a frequently used modeling method for multi-scale mechanistic modeling. However, the same properties that make ABMs well suited to representing biological systems also present significant challenges with respect to their construction and calibration, particularly with respect to the selection of potential mechanistic rules and the large number of associated free parameters. We have proposed that machine learning approaches (such as GAs) can be used to more effectively and efficiently deal with rule selection and parameter space characterization; the current work applies GAs to the challenge of calibrating a complex ABM to a specific data set, while preserving biological heterogeneity reflected in the range and variance of the data. This project uses a GA to augment the rule-set for a previously validated ABM of acute systemic inflammation, the Innate Immune Response ABM (IIRABM) to clinical time series data of systemic cytokine levels from a population of burn patients. The genome for the GA is a vector generated from the IIRABM's Model Rule Matrix (MRM), which is a matrix representation of not only the constants/parameters associated with the IIRABM's cytokine interaction rules, but also the existence of rules themselves. Capturing heterogeneity is accomplished by a fitness function that incorporates the sample value range ("error bars") of the clinical data. Results: The GA-enabled parameter space exploration resulted in a set of putative MRM rules and associated parameterizations which closely match the cytokine time course data used to design the fitness function. The number of non-zero elements in the MRM increases significantly as the model parameterizations evolve toward a fitness function minimum, transitioning from a sparse to a dense matrix. This results in a model structure that more closely resembles (at a superficial level) the structure of data generated by a standard differential gene expression experimental study. Conclusion: We present an HPC-enabled machine learning/evolutionary computing approach to calibrate a complex ABM to complex clinical data while preserving biological heterogeneity. The integration of machine learning, HPC, and multi-scale mechanistic modeling provides a pathway forward to more effectively representing the heterogeneity of clinical populations and their data.

Iterative community-driven development of a SARS-CoV-2 tissue simulator.

The 2019 novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is a pathogen of critical significance to international public health. Knowledge of the interplay between molecular-scale virus-receptor interactions, single-cell viral replication, intracellular-scale viral transport, and emergent tissue-scale viral propagation is limited. Moreover, little is known about immune system-virus-tissue interactions and how these can result in low-level (asymptomatic) infections in some cases and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in others, particularly with respect to presentation in different age groups or pre-existing inflammatory risk factors. Given the nonlinear interactions within and among each of these processes, multiscale simulation models can shed light on the emergent dynamics that lead to divergent outcomes, identify actionable "choke points" for pharmacologic interventions, screen potential therapies, and identify potential biomarkers that differentiate patient outcomes. Given the complexity of the problem and the acute need for an actionable model to guide therapy discovery and optimization, we introduce and iteratively refine a prototype of a multiscale model of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in lung tissue. The first prototype model was built and shared internationally as open source code and an online interactive model in under 12 hours, and community domain expertise is driving regular refinements. In a sustained community effort, this consortium is integrating data and expertise across virology, immunology, mathematical biology, quantitative systems physiology, cloud and high performance computing, and other domains to accelerate our response to this critical threat to international health. More broadly, this effort is creating a reusable, modular framework for studying viral replication and immune response in tissues, which can also potentially be adapted to related problems in immunology and immunotherapy.

Prevention of Colon Cancer Recurrence From Minimal Residual Disease: Computer Optimized Dose Schedules of Intermittent Apoptotic Adjuvant Therapy.

PURPOSE: Adjuvant chemotherapy is used after surgery for stages II and III colorectal cancer to reduce recurrence. Nevertheless, recurrence may occur years later with the emergence of initially undetected minimal residual disease (MRD). Attempts to reduce recurrence by increasing the dose intensity and increasing the time of adjuvant therapy have been limited by the adverse effects of the recommended cytotoxic agents. The goals of this study were to suggest an alternative to the recommended cytotoxic agents and to determine optimal adjuvant therapy dose schedules that would reduce the percentage of recurrence at 5 years while retaining colon crypt function. METHODS: A total of 84,400 dose schedules with different duration, interval between doses, and intensity of treatment were simulated with a high-performance computer. Simulated treatments used the drug sulindac, which had previously been used in primary prevention. With appropriate dose schedules, it can induce apoptosis at the crypt lumen surface while retaining crypt function. We used a computer model of cell dynamics in colon crypts that had been calibrated with measurements of human biopsy specimens. Proliferating mutant cells were assumed to emerge from MRD within crypts. Simulated outcomes included the recurrence percentage at 5 years and the retention of crypt function. RESULTS: Optimal dose schedules were determined for adjuvant treatment of MRD that reduced the percentage of recurrence at 5 years of stages I, II, and III colon cancer to zero. CONCLUSION: A new adjuvant therapy for colon cancer based upon optimum dose schedules of intermittent apoptotic treatment may prevent the recurrence of colon cancer from MRD and avoid the adverse effects of cytotoxic treatments.

Deep Reinforcement Learning and Simulation as a Path Toward Precision Medicine.

Traditionally, precision medicine involves classifying patients to identify subpopulations that respond favorably to specific therapeutics. We pose precision medicine as a dynamic feedback control problem, where treatment administered to a patient is guided by measurements taken during the course of treatment. We consider sepsis, a life-threatening condition in which dysregulation of the immune system causes tissue damage. We leverage an existing simulation of the innate immune response to infection and apply deep reinforcement learning (DRL) to discover an adaptive personalized treatment policy that specifies effective multicytokine therapy to simulated sepsis patients based on systemic measurements. The learned policy achieves a dramatic reduction in mortality rate over a set of 500 simulated patients relative to standalone antibiotic therapy. Advantages of our approach are threefold: (1) the use of simulation allows exploring therapeutic strategies beyond clinical practice and available data, (2) advances in DRL accommodate learning complex therapeutic strategies for complex biological systems, and (3) optimized treatments respond to a patient's individual disease progression over time, therefore, capturing both differences across patients and the inherent randomness of disease progression within a single patient. We hope that this work motivates both considering adaptive personalized multicytokine mediation therapy for sepsis and exploiting simulation with DRL for precision medicine more broadly.

Optimization of Dose Schedules for Chemotherapy of Early Colon Cancer Determined by High-Performance Computer Simulations.

Cancer chemotherapy dose schedules are conventionally applied intermittently, with dose duration of the order of hours, intervals between doses of days or weeks, and cycles repeated for weeks. The large number of possible combinations of values of duration, interval, and lethality has been an impediment to empirically determine the optimal set of treatment conditions. The purpose of this project was to determine the set of parameters for duration, interval, and lethality that would be most effective for treating early colon cancer. An agent-based computer model that simulated cell proliferation kinetics in normal human colon crypts was calibrated with measurements of human biopsy specimens. Mutant cells were simulated as proliferating and forming an adenoma, or dying if treated with cytotoxic chemotherapy. Using a high-performance computer, a total of 28 800 different parameter sets of duration, interval, and lethality were simulated. The effect of each parameter set on the stability of colon crypts, the time to cure a crypt of mutant cells, and the accumulated dose was determined. Of the 28 800 parameter sets, 434 parameter sets were effective in curing the crypts of mutant cells before they could form an adenoma and allowed the crypt normal cell dynamics to recover to pretreatment levels. A group of 14 similar parameter sets produced a minimal time to cure mutant cells. A different group of nine similar parameter sets produced the least accumulated dose. These parameter sets may be considered as candidate dose schedules to guide clinical trials for early colon cancer.

High-throughput cancer hypothesis testing with an integrated PhysiCell-EMEWS workflow.

BACKGROUND: Cancer is a complex, multiscale dynamical system, with interactions between tumor cells and non-cancerous host systems. Therapies act on this combined cancer-host system, sometimes with unexpected results. Systematic investigation of mechanistic computational models can augment traditional laboratory and clinical studies, helping identify the factors driving a treatment's success or failure. However, given the uncertainties regarding the underlying biology, these multiscale computational models can take many potential forms, in addition to encompassing high-dimensional parameter spaces. Therefore, the exploration of these models is computationally challenging. We propose that integrating two existing technologies-one to aid the construction of multiscale agent-based models, the other developed to enhance model exploration and optimization-can provide a computational means for high-throughput hypothesis testing, and eventually, optimization. RESULTS: In this paper, we introduce a high throughput computing (HTC) framework that integrates a mechanistic 3-D multicellular simulator (PhysiCell) with an extreme-scale model exploration platform (EMEWS) to investigate high-dimensional parameter spaces. We show early results in applying PhysiCell-EMEWS to 3-D cancer immunotherapy and show insights on therapeutic failure. We describe a generalized PhysiCell-EMEWS workflow for high-throughput cancer hypothesis testing, where hundreds or thousands of mechanistic simulations are compared against data-driven error metrics to perform hypothesis optimization. CONCLUSIONS: While key notational and computational challenges remain, mechanistic agent-based models and high-throughput model exploration environments can be combined to systematically and rapidly explore key problems in cancer. These high-throughput computational experiments can improve our understanding of the underlying biology, drive future experiments, and ultimately inform clinical practice.

Inflammation and Disease: Modelling and Modulation of the Inflammatory Response to Alleviate Critical Illness.

Critical illness, a constellation of interrelated inflammatory and physiological derangements occurring subsequent to severe infection or injury, affects a large number of individuals in both developed and developing countries. The prototypical complex system embodied in critical illness has largely defied therapy beyond supportive care. We have focused on the utility of data-driven and mechanistic computational modelling to help address the complexity of critical illness and provide pathways towards discovering potential therapeutic options and combinations. Herein, we review recent progress in this field, with a focus on both animal and computational models of critical illness. We suggest that therapy for critical illness can be posed as a model-based dynamic control problem, and discuss novel theoretical and experimental approaches involving biohybrid devices aimed at reprogramming inflammation dynamically. Together, these advances offer the potential for Model-based Precision Medicine for critical illness.

Sepsis reconsidered: Identifying novel metrics for behavioral landscape characterization with a high-performance computing implementation of an agent-based model.

OBJECTIVES: Sepsis affects nearly 1 million people in the United States per year, has a mortality rate of 28-50% and requires more than $20 billion a year in hospital costs. Over a quarter century of research has not yielded a single reliable diagnostic test or a directed therapeutic agent for sepsis. Central to this insufficiency is the fact that sepsis remains a clinical/physiological diagnosis representing a multitude of molecularly heterogeneous pathological trajectories. Advances in computational capabilities offered by High Performance Computing (HPC) platforms call for an evolution in the investigation of sepsis to attempt to define the boundaries of traditional research (bench, clinical and computational) through the use of computational proxy models. We present a novel investigatory and analytical approach, derived from how HPC resources and simulation are used in the physical sciences, to identify the epistemic boundary conditions of the study of clinical sepsis via the use of a proxy agent-based model of systemic inflammation. DESIGN: Current predictive models for sepsis use correlative methods that are limited by patient heterogeneity and data sparseness. We address this issue by using an HPC version of a system-level validated agent-based model of sepsis, the Innate Immune Response ABM (IIRBM), as a proxy system in order to identify boundary conditions for the possible behavioral space for sepsis. We then apply advanced analysis derived from the study of Random Dynamical Systems (RDS) to identify novel means for characterizing system behavior and providing insight into the tractability of traditional investigatory methods. RESULTS: The behavior space of the IIRABM was examined by simulating over 70 million sepsis patients for up to 90 days in a sweep across the following parameters: cardio-respiratory-metabolic resilience; microbial invasiveness; microbial toxigenesis; and degree of nosocomial exposure. In addition to using established methods for describing parameter space, we developed two novel methods for characterizing the behavior of a RDS: Probabilistic Basins of Attraction (PBoA) and Stochastic Trajectory Analysis (STA). Computationally generated behavioral landscapes demonstrated attractor structures around stochastic regions of behavior that could be described in a complementary fashion through use of PBoA and STA. The stochasticity of the boundaries of the attractors highlights the challenge for correlative attempts to characterize and classify clinical sepsis. CONCLUSIONS: HPC simulations of models like the IIRABM can be used to generate approximations of the behavior space of sepsis to both establish "boundaries of futility" with respect to existing investigatory approaches and apply system engineering principles to investigate the general dynamic properties of sepsis to provide a pathway for developing control strategies. The issues that bedevil the study and treatment of sepsis, namely clinical data sparseness and inadequate experimental sampling of system behavior space, are fundamental to nearly all biomedical research, manifesting in the "Crisis of Reproducibility" at all levels. HPC-augmented simulation-based research offers an investigatory strategy more consistent with that seen in the physical sciences (which combine experiment, theory and simulation), and an opportunity to utilize the leading advances in HPC, namely deep machine learning and evolutionary computing, to form the basis of an iterative scientific process to meet the full promise of Precision Medicine (right drug, right patient, right time).

A polyphenol-rich fraction obtained from table grapes decreases adiposity, insulin resistance and markers of inflammation and impacts gut microbiota in high-fat-fed mice.

The objective of this study was to determine if consuming an extractable or nonextractable fraction of table grapes reduced the metabolic consequences of consuming a high-fat, American-type diet. Male C57BL/6J mice were fed a low fat (LF) diet, a high fat (HF) diet, or an HF diet containing whole table grape powder (5% w/w), an extractable, polyphenol-rich (HF-EP) fraction, a nonextractable, polyphenol-poor (HF-NEP) fraction or equal combinations of both fractions (HF-EP+NEP) from grape powder for 16weeks. Mice fed the HF-EP and HF-EP+NEP diets had lower percentages of body fat and amounts of white adipose tissue (WAT) and improved glucose tolerance compared to the HF-fed controls. Mice fed the HF-EP+NEP diet had lower liver weights and triglyceride (TG) levels compared to the HF-fed controls. Mice fed the HF-EP+NEP diets had higher hepatic mRNA levels of hormone sensitive lipase and adipose TG lipase, and decreased expression of c-reactive protein compared to the HF-fed controls. In epididymal (visceral) WAT, the expression levels of several inflammatory genes were lower in mice fed the HF-EP and HF-EP+NEP diets compared to the HF-fed controls. Mice fed the HF diets had increased myeloperoxidase activity and impaired localization of the tight junction protein zonula occludens-1 in ileal mucosa compared to the HF-EP and HF-NEP diets. Several of these treatment effects were associated with alterations in gut bacterial community structure. Collectively, these data demonstrate that the polyphenol-rich, EP fraction from table grapes attenuated many of the adverse health consequences associated with consuming an HF diet.

Table grape consumption reduces adiposity and markers of hepatic lipogenesis and alters gut microbiota in butter fat-fed mice.

Our objective was to determine if consuming table grapes reduces adiposity and its metabolic consequences and alters gut microbiota in mice fed a high-fat (HF), butter-rich diet. C57BL/6J mice were fed a low-fat (LF) diet or HF diet with 3% or 5% grapes for 11weeks. Total body and inguinal fat were moderately but significantly reduced in mice fed both levels of grapes compared to their controls. Mice fed 5% grapes had lower liver weights and triglyceride levels and decreased expression of glycerol-3-phosphate acyltransferase (Gpat1) compared to the 5% controls. Mice fed 3% grapes had lower hepatic mRNA levels of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma 2, sterol-CoA desaturase 1, fatty-acid binding protein 4 and Gpat1 compared to the 3% controls. Although grape feeding had only a minor impact on markers of inflammation or lipogenesis in adipose tissue or intestine, 3% of grapes decreased the intestinal abundance of sulfidogenic Desulfobacter spp. and the Bilophila wadsworthia-specific dissimilatory sulfite reductase gene and tended to increase the abundance of the beneficial bacterium Akkermansia muciniphila compared to controls. In addition, Bifidobacterium, Lactobacillus, Allobaculum and several other genera correlated negatively with adiposity. Allobaculum in particular was increased in the LF and 3% grapes groups compared to the HF-fed controls. Notably, grape feeding attenuated the HF-induced impairment in epithelial localization of the intestinal tight junction protein zonula occludens. Collectively, these data indicate that some of the adverse health consequences of consuming an HF diet rich in saturated fat can be attenuated by table grape consumption.