Quantifying sustained pain worsening in knee osteoarthritis.

OBJECTIVE: Recent work suggests that many persons with knee osteoarthritis (OA) experience stable symptoms over time. Whether patients experience periods of symptom exacerbation or flare which interrupt this stable course, and how long such periods last, has received little study. Our objective is to describe the frequency and duration of episodes of pain worsening in persons with knee OA. METHODS: We selected participants from the Osteoarthritis Initiative with radiographic, symptomatic knee OA. We defined a clinically relevant increase in knee pain as an increase in Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) pain of ≥9 points. We defined sustained worsening as maintaining at least 80% of the initial increase. We used Poisson regression to estimate the incidence rate (IR) of episodes of pain worsening. RESULTS: 1093 participants were included in the analysis. Eighty-eight percent had ≥1 increase in WOMAC pain ≥9 points (IR: 26.3 per 100 person years (95% CI: 25.2, 27.4)). Forty-eight percent had ≥1 episode of sustained worsening (IR: 9.7 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 8.9, 10.5)). Elevated pain was maintained an average of 2.4 years after the initial increase. CONCLUSION: Most participants with knee OA reported at least one clinically relevant increase in WOMAC pain, but fewer than half experienced an episode of sustained pain worsening. These individual-level data portray a more nuanced and fluctuating course of OA pain than suggested by trajectory studies. These data could be useful in shared decision-making regarding prognosis and treatment choices in persons affected by symptomatic knee OA.

Does gabapentin provide benefit for patients with knee OA? A benefit-harm and cost-effectiveness analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Gabapentin can treat neuropathic pain syndromes and has increasingly been prescribed to treat nociplastic pain. Some patients with knee osteoarthritis (OA) suffer from both nociceptive and nociplastic pain. We examined the cost-effectiveness of adding gabapentin to knee OA care. METHOD: We used the Osteoarthritis Policy Model, a validated Monte Carlo simulation of knee OA, to examine the value of gabapentin in treating knee OA by comparing three strategies: 1) usual care, gabapentin sparing (UC-GS); 2) targeted gabapentin (TG), which provides gabapentin plus usual care for those who screen positive for nociplastic pain on the modified PainDETECT questionnaire (mPD-Q) and usual care only for those who screen negative; and 3) universal gabapentin plus usual care (UG). Outcomes included cumulative quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), lifetime direct medical costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), discounted at 3% annually. We derived model inputs from published literature and national databases and varied key input parameters in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: UC-GS dominated both gabapentin-containing strategies, as it led to lower costs and more QALYs. TG resulted in a cost increase of $689 and a cumulative QALY reduction of 0.012 QALYs. UG resulted in a further $1,868 cost increase and 0.036 QALY decrease. The results were robust to plausible changes in input parameters. The lowest TG strategy ICER of $53,000/QALY was reported when mPD-Q specificity was increased to 100% and AE rate was reduced to 0%. CONCLUSION: Incorporating gabapentin into care for patients with knee OA does not appear to offer good value.

Treatment of the syndrome of knee pain and meniscal tear in middle-aged and older persons: A narrative review.

Objective: To summarize the literature investigating management, treatment strategies, short- and longer-term outcomes of treatment for meniscal tear in middle-aged and older adults. Design: We performed a literature search using PubMed to identify relevant articles and selected 15 for a narrative summary on the available evidence. Results: The literature suggests that middle-age and older adults with meniscal tear may benefit from initial physical therapy (PT) potentially followed by arthroscopic partial meniscectomy (APM) for those who do not experience sufficient benefit after PT and in whom other sources of pain are deemed unlikely. There is moderate evidence to suggest that some factors at baseline, such as radiographic OA, meniscal tear type, and pain at baseline may influence outcomes after APM. Over time, APM appears to increase the risk of degenerative changes in cartilage, bone, and other knee structures as evidenced by radiograph and MRI-based assessments. Conclusion: Evidence from research investigating outcomes of treatment for meniscal tear in middle-aged and older adults demonstrates that PT is a reasonable initial treatment. More research is needed to investigate the best treatment for those who do not benefit substantially from initial PT. The evidence also demonstrates that APM may be associated with greater risk of radiographic osteoarthritic changes, though more research and the addition of enhanced quantitative MRI-assessments are needed to further detail any compositional changes in the knee. Focusing on these areas of further study will clarify whether these imaging findings are clinically meaningful.

Association of knee OA structural phenotypes to risk for progression: a secondary analysis from the Foundation for National Institutes of Health Osteoarthritis Biomarkers study (FNIH).

PURPOSE: Aim was to stratify the knee MRIs of the Foundation for National Institutes of Health Osteoarthritis Biomarkers Consortium (FNIH) cohort into distinct structural phenotypes based on semiquantitative assessment and to determine risk for pain and structural progression over 48 months. METHODS: The study sample from the FNIH project was selected as a nested case-control study with knees showing either 1) radiographic and pain progression (i.e., "composite" cases), 2) radiographic progression only ("JSL"), 3) pain progression only, and 4) neither radiographic nor pain progression. MRI was performed on 3T systems. MRIs were read according to the MOAKS scoring system. Knees were stratified into subchondral bone, cartilage/meniscus and inflammatory phenotypes using the baseline visits. The relation of each phenotype to risk of being in the combined JSL plus composite outcome or composite case only group compared to those not having that phenotype was determined using logistic regression. Only KL2 and 3 and those without root tears were included. RESULTS: 485 knees were included. 362 (75%) did not have any phenotype, while 95 (20%) had the bone phenotype, 22 (5%) the cartilage/meniscus phenotype and 19 (4%) the inflammatory phenotype. The bone phenotype was associated with a higher odds of the combined JSL plus composite outcome and composite outcome only (OR 1.81; [95%CI 1.14,2.85] and 1.65; 95%CI [1.04,2.61]) while the inflammatory (OR 0.96 [95%CI 0.38,2.42] and 1.25; 95%CI [0.48,3.25]) and the cartilage/meniscus phenotypes were not significantly associated with outcome (OR 1.30 95%CI [0.55,3.07] and 0.99; 95%CI [0.40,2,49]). CONCLUSIONS: The bone phenotype was associated with increased risk of having both radiographic and pain progression. Phenotypic stratification may be useful to consider when selecting patients for inclusion in clinical trials.

Estimating contextual effect in nonpharmacological therapies for pain in knee osteoarthritis: a systematic analytic review.

OBJECTIVE: Conduct a systematic review and use meta-analytic techniques to estimate the proportion of total treatment effect that can be attributable to contextual effects (PCE) in adults receiving nonpharmacological, nonsurgical (NPNS) treatments for knee osteoarthritis (OA). DESIGN: We reviewed the published literature to identify five frequently studied NPNS treatments for knee OA: exercise, acupuncture, ultrasound, laser, and transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (TENS). We searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of these treatments and abstracted pre- and post-intervention pain scores for groups receiving placebo and active treatments. For each study we calculated the PCE by dividing the change in pain in the placebo group by the change in pain in the active treatment group. We log transformed the PCE measure and pooled across studies using a random effects model. RESULTS: We identified 25 studies for analysis and clustered the RCTs into two groups: acupuncture and topical energy modalities (TEM). 13 acupuncture studies included 1,653 subjects and 12 TEM studies included 572 subjects. The combined PCE was 0.61 (95% CI 0.46-0.80) for acupuncture and 0.69 (95% CI 0.54-0.88) for TEM. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that about 61% and 69% of the total treatment effect experienced by subjects receiving acupuncture and TEM treatments, respectively, for knee OA pain may be explained by contextual effects. Contextual effects may include the placebo effect, changes attributable to natural history, and effects of co-therapies. These data highlight the important role of contextual effects in the response to NPNS OA treatments.

Association of baseline and change in tibial and femoral cartilage thickness and development of widespread full-thickness cartilage loss in knee osteoarthritis - data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether baseline cartilage thickness and its longitudinal change are associated with incident widespread full-thickness cartilage loss (wsFTCL) in knee osteoarthritis, and whether there are optimal cut-off values for predicting wsFTCL. METHODS: Central medial tibial (cMT) and femoral (cMF) cartilage were assessed using quantitative magnetic resonance imaging data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative cohort (N = 600 knees). Cartilage thickness was measured at baseline and 12 months. wsFTCL was defined semi-quantitatively (scores 2 and 3 from the MRI Osteoarthritis Knee Score) and its incidence at 24 months recorded. Logistic regression was used to determine the odds of developing wsFTCL for baseline and for each 0.1 mm decrease in cartilage thickness. Cut-off values were investigated using the minimal-p method and area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curves (AUC). RESULTS: Incident wsFTCL was observed in 66 (12%) and 73 (14%) knees in cMT and cMF, respectively. Lower baseline cMT and cMF cartilage thickness values were associated with wsFTCL (OR = 1.20; 95% CI: 1.11, 1.28 and OR = 1.15; 95% CI: 1.06 to 1.24, respectively). Optimal cut-off AUCs for the tibia and femur were 0.64 (0.57-0.70) and 0.63 (0.57-0.69), respectively. Longitudinal decrease in femoral, but not tibial, cartilage thickness was associated with incident wsFTCL (OR = 1.77; 95% CI: 1.30 to 2.40); optimal cut-off AUC 0.65 (95% CI: 0.58-0.72). CONCLUSION: Lower baseline cMT and baseline/change (decrease) over 12 months in cMF cartilage thickness were associated with incident, location-specific, wsFTCL at 24 months. Optimal cut-off values were relatively low and of uncertain utility for predicting incident wsFTCL.

Cost-effectiveness of health coaching and financial incentives to promote physical activity after total knee replacement.

OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of Telephonic Health Coaching and Financial Incentives (THC + FI) to promote physical activity in total knee replacement recipients. DESIGN: We used the Osteoarthritis Policy Model, a computer simulation of knee osteoarthritis, to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of THC + FI compared to usual care. We derived transition probabilities, utilities, and costs from trial data. We conducted lifetime analyses from the healthcare perspective and discounted all cost-effectiveness outcomes by 3% annually. The primary outcome was the Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER), defined as the ratio of the differences in costs and Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) between strategies. We considered ICERs <$100,000/QALY to be cost-effective. We conducted one-way sensitivity analyses that varied parameters across their 95% confidence intervals (CI) and limited the efficacy of THC + FI to 1 year or to 9 months. We also conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA), simultaneously varying cost, utilities, and transition probabilities. RESULTS: THC + FI had an ICER of $57,200/QALY in the base case and an ICER below $100,000/QALY in most deterministic sensitivity analyses. THC + FI cost-effectiveness depended on assumptions about long-term efficacy; when efficacy was limited to 1 year or to 9 months, the ICER was $93,300/QALY or $121,800/QALY, respectively. In the PSA, THC + FI had an ICER below $100,000/QALY in 70% of iterations. CONCLUSIONS: Based on currently available information, THC + FI might be a cost-effective alternative to usual care. However, the uncertainty surrounding this choice is considerable, and further research to reduce this uncertainty may be economically justified.

Is synovitis detected on non-contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging associated with serum biomarkers and clinical signs of effusion? Data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the relationship between synovitis detected on non-contrast-enhanced (non-CE) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), biochemical markers of inflammation, and clinical assessment of effusion in people with knee osteoarthritis (OA). METHOD: We examined data from the OA Biomarkers Consortium within the Osteoarthritis Initiative (n = 600). Non-CE MRIs were semi-quantitatively scored (grades 0-3) for severity of Hoffa synovitis and effusion synovitis. Serum (s) matrix metalloproteinase-3 (sMMP-3), hyaluronic acid (sHA), and nitrated epitope of the α-helical region of type II collagen (sColl2-1NO2) were quantified. The bulge and patellar tap clinical tests were performed at baseline and performance characteristics were assessed for the detection of effusion synovitis on MRI. Multinomial logistic regression adjusted for covariates was used to assess the association between biochemical and imaging markers at baseline and over 12 and 24 months. RESULTS: At baseline, sHA and sMMP-3 were associated with moderate to large (score ≥ 2, n = 117) effusion synovitis, with odds ratio = 1.35 and 1.30 per 1 standard deviation in biochemical markers (95% confidence intervals 1.07, 1.71 and 1.00, 1.69), c-statistics 0.640 and 0.626, respectively. The c-statistics for the presence of Hoffa synovitis (score ≥ 2) were 0.693, 0.694, and 0.694 for sHA, sMMP-3, and sColl2-1NO2, respectively. There was no significant association between biochemical markers (baseline and 12 and 24 month time-integrated concentrations) and changes in MRI markers. The bulge and patellar tap signs were 22.0% and 4.3% sensitive and 88.8% and 94.8% specific, respectively, for detecting effusion synovitis (score ≥ 1) on MRI. CONCLUSIONS: sHA and sMMP-3 were modestly associated with effusion synovitis at baseline. Clinical signs of effusion are insensitive but highly specific for the presence of any effusion synovitis on non-CE MRI.

Associations among meniscal damage, meniscal symptoms and knee pain severity.

OBJECTIVE: Meniscal tears occur frequently in patients with knee osteoarthritis (OA). The aim of our study was to determine whether meniscal damage identified on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is associated with the severity of knee pain or the frequency of meniscal symptoms in patients with knee OA. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study using data from the Meniscal Tear in Osteoarthritis Research (MeTeOR) trial. We characterized meniscal damage hierarchically as: root tear; maceration; long and short complex or horizontal tears; and simple tears. Subjects completed the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) Pain Scale and a survey of frequency of meniscal symptoms. We used multivariable general linear models to assess the relationships between meniscal damage and 1) pain severity; and 2) meniscal symptoms, after adjusting for demographic and radiographic features. In further analysis root tear was considered as a binary variable. RESULTS: Analysis included 227 knees. Root tears were present in 19%, maceration in 14%, long complex or horizontal tears in 22%, short complex or horizontal tears in 30%, and simple tears in 14%. Root tears were associated with higher WOMAC pain scores. The adjusted mean WOMAC pain score was 45.2 (standard error (SE) 2.7) for those with root tear and 38.7 (SE 1.2) for subjects without root tear (P = 0.03). We did not find statistically significant associations between meniscal morphology and frequency of meniscal symptoms. CONCLUSION: Root tears were associated with greater pain than meniscal tears or maceration. We did not find a relationship between meniscal damage and meniscal symptoms.

The association of pre-operative body pain diagram scores with pain outcomes following total knee arthroplasty.

OBJECTIVE: Approximately 20% of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) recipients have suboptimal pain relief. We evaluated the association between pre-surgical widespread body pain and incomplete pain relief following TKA. METHOD: This prospective analysis included 241 patients with knee osteoarthritis (OA) undergoing unilateral TKA who completed questionnaires preoperatively and up to 12 months post-operatively. Questionnaires included the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) pain scale and a body pain diagram. We derived the number of non-index painful body regions from the diagram. We used Poisson regression to determine the association between painful body regions identified preoperatively and both WOMAC pain at follow-up and improvement in pain as defined by the minimal clinically important difference (MCID). RESULTS: Mean subject age was 66 years (SD 9), and 61% were females. Adjusting for age, sex, co-morbid conditions, baseline pain, pain catastrophizing, and mental health, we found that more widespread body pain was associated with a higher likelihood of reporting 12-month WOMAC pain score >15 (relative risk [RR] per painful body region 1.39, 95% CI 1.18-1.63) and a greater likelihood of failing to achieve the MCID (RR 1.47, 95% CI 1.16-1.86).). Pain catastrophizing was an independent predictor of persistent pain and failure to improve by the MCID (RR 3.57, 95% CI 1.73-7.31). CONCLUSIONS: Pre-operative widespread pain was associated with greater pain at 12-months and failure to reach the MCID. Widespread pain as captured by the pain diagram, along with the pain catastrophizing score, may help identify persons with suboptimal TKA outcome.

Elevated triglycerides are associated with decreased executive function among adolescents with bipolar disorder.

OBJECTIVE: Cardiovascular risk factors that comprise metabolic syndrome (MetS) have been linked with cognition in adults with bipolar disorder (BD). This study examines the association between MetS components and executive function in adolescents with BD. METHODS: A total of 34 adolescents with BD and 35 healthy control (HC) adolescents were enrolled. MetS components included triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein, glucose, waist circumference, and systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Executive functioning was measured using the intra-extra-dimensional (IED) set-shifting task from the Cambridge Neuropsychological Tests Automated Battery. RESULTS: Adolescents with BD were more likely to have ≥1 MetS components (64.7%) as compared to HC participants (22.9%, χ(2) = 12.29, P = <0.001). Adolescents with BD also had poorer IED task performance compared to HC adolescents (composite Z-score: 0.21 ± 0.52 vs. 0.49 ± 0.51, P = 0.011). Within the BD group, IED composite Z-scores were correlated with diastolic blood pressure and triglyceride levels (ρ = -0.358, P = 0.041 and ρ = -0.396, P = 0.020 respectively). The association of triglycerides with executive function remained significant after controlling for age, IQ, and current use of second-generation antipsychotics. CONCLUSION: Elevated triglycerides are associated with poorer executive function among adolescents with BD. Studies of behavioural and pharmacological interventions targeting MetS components for the purpose of improving executive function among adolescents with BD are warranted.

Comparative pain reduction of oral non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and opioids for knee osteoarthritis: systematic analytic review.

OBJECTIVE: Summarize the comparative effectiveness of oral non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and opioids in reducing knee osteoarthritis (OA) pain. METHODS: Two reviewers independently screened reports of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), published in English between 1982 and 2015, evaluating oral NSAIDs or opioids for knee OA. Included studies were at least 8 weeks duration, conducted in Western Europe, the Americas, New Zealand, or Australia, and reported baseline and follow-up pain using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) Pain subscale (0-100, 100-worst). Effectiveness was evaluated as reduction in pain, accounting for study dropout and heterogeneity. RESULTS: Twenty-seven treatment arms (nine celecoxib, four non-selective NSAIDs [diclofenac, naproxen, piroxicam], eleven less potent opioids [tramadol], and three potent opioids [hydromorphone, oxycodone]) from 17 studies were included. NSAID and opioid studies reported similar baseline demographics and efficacy withdrawal rates; NSAID studies reported lower baseline pain and toxicity withdrawal rates. Accounting for efficacy-related withdrawals, all drug classes were associated with similar pain reductions (NSAIDs: -18; less potent opioids: -18; potent opioids: -19). Meta-regression did not reveal differential effectiveness by drug class but found that study cohorts with a higher proportion of male subjects and worse mean baseline pain had greater pain reduction. Similarly, results of the network meta-analysis did not find a significant difference in WOMAC Pain reduction for the three analgesic classes. CONCLUSION: NSAIDs and opioids offer similar pain relief in OA patients. These data could help clinicians and patients discuss likely benefits of alternative analgesics.

Model-based evaluation of cost-effectiveness of nerve growth factor inhibitors in knee osteoarthritis: impact of drug cost, toxicity, and means of administration.

OBJECTIVE: Studies suggest nerve growth factor inhibitors (NGFi) relieve pain but may accelerate disease progression in some patients with osteoarthritis (OA). We sought cost and toxicity thresholds that would make NGFi a cost-effective treatment for moderate-to-severe knee OA. DESIGN: We used the Osteoarthritis Policy (OAPol) model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of NGFi compared to standard of care (SOC) in OA, using Tanezumab as an example. Efficacy and rates of accelerated OA progression were based on published studies. We varied the price/dose from $200 to $1000. We considered self-administered subcutaneous (SC) injections (no administration cost) vs provider-administered intravenous (IV) infusion ($69-$433/dose). Strategies were defined as cost-effective if their incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was less than $100,000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY). In sensitivity analyses we varied efficacy, toxicity, and costs. RESULTS: SOC in patients with high levels of pain led to an average discounted quality-adjusted life expectancy of 11.15 QALYs, a lifetime risk of total knee replacement surgery (TKR) of 74%, and cumulative discounted direct medical costs of $148,700. Adding Tanezumab increased QALYs to 11.42, reduced primary TKR utilization to 63%, and increased costs to between $155,400 and $199,500. In the base-case analysis, Tanezumab at $600/dose was cost-effective when delivered outside of a hospital. At $1000/dose, Tanezumab was not cost-effective in all but the most optimistic scenario. Only at rates of accelerated OA progression of 10% or more (10-fold higher than reported values) did Tanezumab decrease QALYs and fail to represent a viable option. CONCLUSIONS: At $100,000/QALY, Tanezumab would be cost effective if priced ≤$400/dose in all settings except IV hospital delivery.

Cost-effectiveness of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and opioids in the treatment of knee osteoarthritis in older patients with multiple comorbidities.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate long-term clinical and economic outcomes of naproxen, ibuprofen, celecoxib or tramadol for OA patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes. DESIGN: We used the Osteoarthritis Policy Model to examine treatment with these analgesics after standard of care (SOC) - acetaminophen and corticosteroid injections - failed to control pain. NSAID regimens were evaluated with and without proton pump inhibitors (PPIs). We evaluated over-the-counter (OTC) regimens where available. Estimates of treatment efficacy (pain reduction, occurring in ∼57% of patients on all regimens) and toxicity (major cardiac or gastrointestinal toxicity or fractures, risk ranging from 1.09% with celecoxib to 5.62% with tramadol) were derived from published literature. Annual costs came from Red Book Online(®). Outcomes were discounted at 3%/year and included costs, quality-adjusted life expectancy, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Key input parameters were varied in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Adding ibuprofen to SOC was cost saving, increasing QALYs by 0.07 while decreasing cost by $800. Incorporating OTC naproxen rather than ibuprofen added 0.01 QALYs and increased costs by $300, resulting in an ICER of $54,800/QALY. Using prescription naproxen with OTC PPIs led to an ICER of $76,700/QALY, while use of prescription naproxen with prescription PPIs resulted in an ICER of $252,300/QALY. Regimens including tramadol or celecoxib cost more but added fewer QALYs and thus were dominated by several of the naproxen-containing regimens. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with multiple comorbidities, naproxen- and ibuprofen-containing regimens are more effective and cost-effective in managing OA pain than opioids, celecoxib or SOC.

Brief Report: Cartilage Thickness Change as an Imaging Biomarker of Knee Osteoarthritis Progression: Data From the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health Osteoarthritis Biomarkers Consortium.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association of cartilage thickness change over 24 months, as determined by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), with knee osteoarthritis (OA) progression at 24-48 months. METHODS: This nested case-control study included 600 knees with a baseline Kellgren/Lawrence (K/L) grade of 1-3 from 600 Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) participants. Case knees (n = 194) had both medial tibiofemoral radiographic joint space loss (≥0.7 mm) and a persistent increase in the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index pain score (≥9 on a 0-100 scale) 24-48 months from baseline. Control knees (n = 406) included 200 with neither radiographic nor pain progression, 103 with radiographic progression only, and 103 with pain progression only. Medial and lateral femorotibial cartilage was segmented from sagittal 3T MRIs at baseline, 12 months, and 24 months. Logistic regression was used to assess the association of change in cartilage thickness, with a focus on the central medial femorotibial compartment, and OA progression. RESULTS: Central medial femorotibial compartment thickness loss was significantly associated with case status, with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.9 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.6-2.3) (P < 0.0001). Association with case status reached P < 0.05 for both the central femur (OR 1.8 [95% CI 1.5-2.2]) and the central tibia (OR 1.6 [95% CI 1.3-1.9]). Lateral femorotibial compartment cartilage thickness loss, in contrast, was not significantly associated with case status. A reduction in central medial femorotibial compartment cartilage thickness was strongly associated with radiographic progression (OR 4.0 [95% CI 2.9-5.3]; P < 0.0001) and only weakly associated with pain progression (OR 1.3 [95% CI 1.1-1.6]; P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate that loss of medial femorotibial cartilage thickness over 24 months is associated with the combination of radiographic and pain progression in the knee, with a stronger association for radiographic progression.

OARSI Clinical Trials Recommendations: Key analytic considerations in design, analysis, and reporting of randomized controlled trials in osteoarthritis.

To highlight methodologic challenges pertinent to design, analysis, and reporting of results of randomized clinical trials in OA and offer practical suggestions to overcome these challenges. The topics covered in this paper include subject selection, randomization, approaches to handling missing data, subgroup analysis, sample size, and issues related to changing design mid-way through the study. Special attention is given to standardizing the reporting of results and economic analyses. Key findings include the importance of blinding and concealment, the distinction between superiority and non-inferiority trials, the need to minimize missing data, and appropriate analysis and interpretation of subgroup effects. Investigators may use the findings and recommendations advanced in this paper to guide design and conduct of randomized controlled trials of interventions for osteoarthritis.

Trajectories and risk profiles of pain in persons with radiographic, symptomatic knee osteoarthritis: data from the osteoarthritis initiative.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the temporal evolution of pain severity in persons with knee osteoarthritis (OA). We sought to describe the pain trajectory over 6 years in a cohort of subjects with radiographic, symptomatic knee OA. METHODS: We used data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI), a multi-center, longitudinal study of subjects with diagnosed radiographic evidence of knee OA. Pain was assessed at baseline and annually for 6 years. Our analysis cohort included subjects with symptomatic knee OA at baseline, defined as baseline Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) score ≥2 with Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) pain score >0. We used group-based trajectory modeling to identify distinct patterns of pain progression over a 6-year follow-up. Factors examined included sex, race, education, comorbidities, age, body mass index (BMI), alignment, KL grade, and depression. RESULTS: We used data from 1753 OAI participants with symptomatic knee OA. Mean baseline WOMAC pain score was 26.5 (0-100, 100=worst) with standard deviation (SD) 19. Group-based trajectory modeling identified five distinct pain trajectories; baseline pain scores for each ranged from 15 to 62. None of the trajectories exhibited substantial worsening. One fifth of subjects in the two trajectories with the greatest pain underwent total knee replacement (TKR) over follow-up. Higher KL grade, obesity, depression, medical comorbidities, female sex, non-white race, lower education, and younger age were associated with trajectories characterized by greater pain. CONCLUSION: We found that knee pain changes little, on average, over 6 years in most subjects. These observations suggest knee OA is characterized by persistent rather than inexorably worsening symptoms.

Use of an axial pattern skin flap based on the cranial cutaneous branch of the saphenous artery in the dog.

OBJECTIVE: To report the use of an axial pattern flap based on the cranial cutaneous branch of the saphenous artery to close a skin defect left on the medial crus after mast cell tumour removal. CASE REPORT: A seven-year-old, 32.41 kg, neutered male mixed-breed dog had a mast cell tumour incompletely excised from the left medial crus. The resulting 6 cm linear scar was excised with 2 cm wide margins and one fascial plane for deep margins. An axial pattern skin flap incorporating the cranial cutaneous branch of the saphenous artery was used to close the resultant skin defect. RESULTS: The histopathology report documented clean margins and the flap survived completely. A seroma developed postoperatively, however it resolved without treatment. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE: An axial pattern skin flap based on the cranial cutaneous branch of the saphenous artery is a viable option for closing medial crus skin defects in the dog.