Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: Years 2020 and 2021.

We estimated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Brazil for 2020 and 2021 years. We used mortality data (2015-2021) from the Brazilian Health Ministry for forecasting baseline deaths under non-pandemic conditions and to estimate all-cause excess deaths at the country level and stratified by sex, age, ethnicity and region of residence, from March 2020 to December 2021. We also considered the estimation of excess deaths due to specific causes. The estimated all-cause excess deaths were 187 842 (95% PI: 164 122; 211 562, P-Score = 16.1%) for weeks 10-53, 2020, and 441 048 (95% PI: 411 740; 470 356, P-Score = 31.9%) for weeks 1-52, 2021. P-Score values ranged from 1.4% (RS, South) to 38.1% (AM, North) in 2020 and from 21.2% (AL and BA, Northeast) to 66.1% (RO, North) in 2021. Differences among men (18.4%) and women (13.4%) appeared in 2020 only, and the P-Score values were about 30% for both sexes in 2021. Except for youngsters (< 20 years old), all adult age groups were badly hit, especially those from 40 to 79 years old. In 2020, the Indigenous, Black and East Asian descendants had the highest P-Score (26.2 to 28.6%). In 2021, Black (34.7%) and East Asian descendants (42.5%) suffered the greatest impact. The pandemic impact had enormous regional heterogeneity and substantial differences according to socio-demographic factors, mainly during the first wave, showing that some population strata benefited from the social distancing measures when they could adhere to them. In the second wave, the burden was very high for all but extremely high for some, highlighting that our society must tackle the health inequalities experienced by groups of different socio-demographic statuses.

Assessing the accuracy of prediction for milk fatty acids by using a small reference population of tropical Holstein cows.

Fatty acids (FA) have been related to effects on human health, sensory quality and shelf life of dairy products, cow's health and methane emission. However, despite their importance, they are not regularly measured in all dairy herds yet, which can affect the accuracy of estimated breeding values (EBV) for these traits. In this case, an alternative is to use genomic selection. Thus, the aim was to assess the use of genomic information in the genetic evaluation for milk traits in a tropical Holstein population. Monthly records (n = 36,457) of milk FA percentage, daily milk yield and quality traits from 4,203 cows as well as the genotypes of 755 of these cows for 57,368 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) were used. Polygenic and genomic-polygenic models were applied for EBV prediction, and both models were compared through the EBV accuracy calculated from the prediction error and Spearman's correlation among EBV rankings. Prediction accuracy was assessed by using cross-validation. In this case, the accuracy was the correlation between the genomic breeding values (GEBV) obtained as the sum of SNP effects and the EBV obtained in the polygenic model in each validation group. For all traits, the use of the genomic-polygenic model did not alter the animals' ranking, with correlations higher than 0.87. Nevertheless, through this model, the accuracy increased from 1.5% to 6.8% compared to the polygenic model. The correlations between GEBV and EBV varied from 0.52 to 0.68. Therefore, the use of a small group of genotyped cows in the genetic evaluation can increase the accuracy of EBV for milk FA and other traditional milk traits.