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BACKGROUND: Smoking continues to be the single largest cause of preventable disease and death and a major contributor to health inequalities. Dental professionals are well placed to offer behavioural support in combination with pharmacotherapy to increase smoking cessation rates across the population. We aimed to assess the trends and socioeconomic inequalities in the dental attendance of adult smokers in Scotland from 2009 to 2019 and examine the potential population reach of dental settings for smoking cessation interventions. METHODS: A secondary analysis was conducted of combined Scottish Health Surveys (SHeS) from 2009/11, 2013/15 and 2017/19. 'Recent' dental attendance (within the past two years) was the focus and descriptive analysis examined attendance of self-reported smokers compared to non-smokers and stratified by the area-based Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) and individual socioeconomic measures (income, education, and occupation). Generalised linear models were used to model recent attendance in non-smokers relative to smokers adjusted by the socioeconomic measures, for each of the survey cohorts separately. Absolute differences and risk ratios were calculated with 95% Confidence Intervals (CI). RESULTS: Recent dental attendance was generally high and increased in both smokers (70-76%) and non-smokers (84-87%) from 2009/11 to 2017/19 and increased across all SIMD groups. After adjustment for sociodemographic variables, the adjusted Risk Difference (aRD) for recent attendance between non-smokers and smokers was 8.9% (95% CI 4.6%, 13.2%) by 2017/19. Within smokers, recent attendance was 7-9% lower in those living in the most deprived areas compared to those living in the least deprived areas over the three surveys. CONCLUSIONS: SHeS data from 2009 to 2019 demonstrated that a high and increasing proportion of smokers in the population attend the dentist, albeit slightly less frequently than non-smokers. There were large inequalities in the dental attendance of smokers, to a lesser extent in non-smokers, and these persisted over time. Dental settings provide a good potential opportunity to deliver population-level smoking cessation interventions, but smokers in the most deprived groups and older age groups may be harder to reach. Consideration should be given to ensure that these groups are given appropriate proportionate support to take up preventive interventions.
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Fumantes , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Humanos , Escócia/epidemiologia , Adulto , Masculino , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Transversais , Fumantes/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto Jovem , Assistência Odontológica/estatística & dados numéricos , Assistência Odontológica/tendências , Abandono do Hábito de Fumar/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente , Idoso , Fumar/epidemiologia , Disparidades em Assistência à Saúde , Inquéritos EpidemiológicosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Head and neck cancer (HNC) incidence is on the rise, often diagnosed at late stage and associated with poor prognoses. Risk prediction tools have a potential role in prevention and early detection. METHODS: The IARC-ARCAGE European case-control study was used as the model development dataset. A clinical HNC risk prediction model using behavioral and demographic predictors was developed via multivariable logistic regression analyses. The model was then externally validated in the UK Biobank cohort. Model performance was tested using discrimination and calibration metrics. RESULTS: 1926 HNC cases and 2043 controls were used for the development of the model. The development dataset model including sociodemographic, smoking, and alcohol variables had moderate discrimination, with an area under curve (AUC) value of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.74-0.77); the calibration slope (0.75) and tests were suggestive of good calibration. 384 616 UK Biobank participants (with 1177 HNC cases) were available for external validation of the model. Upon external validation, the model had an AUC of 0.62 (95% CI, 0.61-0.64). CONCLUSION: We developed and externally validated a HNC risk prediction model using the ARCAGE and UK Biobank studies, respectively. This model had moderate performance in the development population and acceptable performance in the validation dataset. Demographics and risk behaviors are strong predictors of HNC, and this model may be a helpful tool in primary dental care settings to promote prevention and determine recall intervals for dental examination. Future addition of HPV serology or genetic factors could further enhance individual risk prediction.
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Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço , Humanos , Masculino , Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço/epidemiologia , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Medição de Risco , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Idoso , Adulto , Reino Unido/epidemiologia , Modelos Logísticos , Fatores de Risco , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologiaRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: To quantify levels of coexisting obesity and caries experience in children in Scotland, and any associated socioeconomic inequalities over the years 2011/2012-2017/2018. DESIGN: A multicohort population-wide data linkage study. SETTING: Local authority primary schools in Scotland. PATIENTS: 335 361 primary 1 (approximately 5 years old) schoolchildren in Scotland between 2011/2012 and 2017/2018. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence and inequalities in coexisting caries and obesity. RESULTS: The prevalence of coexisting obesity and caries experience was 3.4% (n=11 494 of 335 361) and did not change over the 7 years. Children living in the 20% most deprived areas had more than sixfold greater odds of coexisting obesity and caries experience than children from the 20% least deprived areas (adjusted OR=6.63 (95% CI=6.16 to 7.14; p<0.001)). There was a large persistent socioeconomic gradient across the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation groups, with the Slope and Relative Indices of Inequality remaining unchanged over the 7 cohort years. CONCLUSIONS: Despite improvements in oral health in children in Scotland, the prevalence of coexisting obesity and caries experience has remained static, with large persistent inequalities. These conditions are likely to signal increased risk of chronic conditions including multimorbidity in adulthood and therefore early identification of children most at risk and timely intervention tackling common risk factors should be developed and evaluated.
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Cárie Dentária , Obesidade Infantil , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Humanos , Cárie Dentária/epidemiologia , Escócia/epidemiologia , Prevalência , Masculino , Feminino , Pré-Escolar , Obesidade Infantil/epidemiologia , Criança , Disparidades nos Níveis de Saúde , Armazenamento e Recuperação da InformaçãoRESUMO
DATA SOURCES: Four electronic databases: MEDLINE (via Ovid), Embase (via Ovid), Web of Science, and American Psychology Association PsycINFO. STUDY SELECTION: Quantitative observational or interventional studies, published until the end of February 2022 with no restrictions to date, language, or region of publication. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Screening performed by one author and a second author independently reviewed a random sample of 10% of the articles. Disagreements were resolved in consultation with a third author. RESULTS: The results were presented as a narrative review due to large heterogeneity of data. Nine studies met the eligibility criteria and most of them were rated as fair quality. The main factors influencing refugees access to dental care services were demographic and socioeconomic characteristics and English language proficiency. CONCLUSIONS: The review suggests that individual-level factors may have a predisposing effect on refugees' access, but had limited evidence on other enabling and contextual factors.
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Refugiados , Humanos , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Assistência OdontológicaRESUMO
A growing proportion of head and neck cancer (HNC), especially oropharyngeal cancer (OPC), is caused by human papillomavirus (HPV). There are several markers for HPV-driven HNC, one being HPV early antigen serology. We aimed to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of HPV serology and its performance across patient characteristics. Data from the VOYAGER consortium was used, which comprises five studies on HNC from North America and Europe. Diagnostic accuracy, that is, sensitivity, specificity, Cohen's kappa and correctly classified proportions of HPV16 E6 serology, was assessed for OPC and other HNC using p16INK4a immunohistochemistry (p16), HPV in situ hybridization (ISH) and HPV PCR as reference methods. Stratified analyses were performed for variables including age, sex, smoking and alcohol use, to test the robustness of diagnostic accuracy. A risk-factor analysis based on serology was conducted, comparing HPV-driven to non-HPV-driven OPC. Overall, HPV serology had a sensitivity of 86.8% (95% CI 85.1-88.3) and specificity of 91.2% (95% CI 88.6-93.4) for HPV-driven OPC using p16 as a reference method. In stratified analyses, diagnostic accuracy remained consistent across sex and different age groups. Sensitivity was lower for heavy smokers (77.7%), OPC without lymph node involvement (74.4%) and the ARCAGE study (66.7%), while specificity decreased for cases with <10 pack-years (72.1%). The risk-factor model included study, year of diagnosis, age, sex, BMI, alcohol use, pack-years, TNM-T and TNM-N stage. HPV serology is a robust biomarker for HPV-driven OPC, and its diagnostic accuracy is independent of age and sex. Future research is suggested on the influence of smoking on HPV antibody levels.
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Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço , Neoplasias Orofaríngeas , Infecções por Papillomavirus , Humanos , Papillomavirus Humano 16 , Papillomavirus Humano , Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço/diagnósticoRESUMO
Head and neck cancer (HNC) treatments have been based on single or multimodal therapies with surgery, radiotherapy (RT), chemotherapy, and immunotherapy. However, treatment recommendations among countries may differ due to technological/human resources and usual local practices. This scoping review aims to identify, compare, and map the clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) for treating squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the oral cavity, oropharynx, and larynx worldwide. A search strategy on global CPGs for HNC was performed by using five electronic databases and grey literature. CPGs were selected for inclusion using EndNote-20 and Rayyan online software. No language or publication date restrictions were applied. The results were analyzed descriptively considering the most updated CPG version. In total, 25 CPGs covering the head and neck region (10), the larynx (7), the oral cavity (5), and the oropharynx (3), were found in 13 geographical regions, and 19 were developed by medical societies from 1996 to 2023. Surgery and RT remain the main modalities for early-stage HNC, with surgery preferred in low-resource countries, and RT in selected cases, especially in the larynx/oropharynx aiming to achieve a cure with organ preservation. Human papillomavirus infection for oropharyngeal SCC is not tested in some Asian countries and there is still no consensus to treat p16-positive cases differently from p16-negative. Recommendations for larynx preservation vary according to facilities in each country, however, individualized choice is emphasized. Inequality across countries/continents is evident, with a similar pattern of recommendations among developed as well as developing ones. No CPGs were found in Latin America as well as Oceania countries, where the incidence of HNC is high and limitations of access to treatment may be encountered.
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BACKGROUND: Surgery is a common treatment option in oral cavity cancer (and less frequently in oropharyngeal cancer) to remove the primary tumour and sometimes neck lymph nodes. People with early-stage disease may undergo surgery alone or surgery plus radiotherapy, chemotherapy, immunotherapy/biotherapy, or a combination of these. Timing and extent of surgery varies. This is the third update of a review originally published in 2007. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the relative benefits and harms of different surgical treatment modalities for oral cavity and oropharyngeal cancers. SEARCH METHODS: We used standard, extensive Cochrane search methods. The latest search date was 9 February 2022. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that compared two or more surgical treatment modalities, or surgery versus other treatment modalities, for primary tumours of the oral cavity or oropharynx. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Our primary outcomes were overall survival, disease-free survival, locoregional recurrence, and recurrence; and our secondary outcomes were adverse effects of treatment, quality of life, direct and indirect costs to patients and health services, and participant satisfaction. We used standard Cochrane methods. We reported survival data as hazard ratios (HRs). For overall survival, we reported the HR of mortality, and for disease-free survival, we reported the combined HR of new disease, progression, and mortality; therefore, HRs below 1 indicated improvement in these outcomes. We used GRADE to assess certainty of evidence for each outcome. MAIN RESULTS: We identified four new trials, bringing the total number of included trials to 15 (2820 participants randomised, 2583 participants analysed). For objective outcomes, we assessed four trials at high risk of bias, three at low risk, and eight at unclear risk. The trials evaluated nine comparisons; none compared different surgical approaches for excision of the primary tumour. Five trials evaluated elective neck dissection (ND) versus therapeutic (delayed) ND in people with oral cavity cancer and clinically negative neck nodes. Elective ND compared with therapeutic ND probably improves overall survival (HR 0.64, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.50 to 0.83; I2 = 0%; 4 trials, 883 participants; moderate certainty) and disease-free survival (HR 0.56, 95% CI 0.45 to 0.70; I2 = 12%; 5 trials, 954 participants; moderate certainty), and probably reduces locoregional recurrence (HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.43 to 0.78; I2 = 0%; 4 trials, 458 participants; moderate certainty) and recurrence (RR 0.58, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.70; I2 = 0%; 3 trials, 633 participants; moderate certainty). Elective ND is probably associated with more adverse events (risk ratio (RR) 1.31, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.54; I2 = 0%; 2 trials, 746 participants; moderate certainty). Two trials evaluated elective radical ND versus elective selective ND in people with oral cavity cancer, but we were unable to pool the data as the trials used different surgical procedures. Neither study found evidence of a difference in overall survival (pooled measure not estimable; very low certainty). We are unsure if there is a difference in effect on disease-free survival (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.29 to 1.11; 1 trial, 104 participants; very low certainty) or recurrence (RR 1.21, 95% CI 0.63 to 2.33; 1 trial, 143 participants; very low certainty). There may be no difference between the interventions in terms of adverse events (1 trial, 148 participants; low certainty). Two trials evaluated superselective ND versus selective ND, but we were unable to use the data. One trial evaluated supraomohyoid ND versus modified radical ND in 332 participants. We were unable to use any of the primary outcome data. The evidence on adverse events was very uncertain, with more complications, pain, and poorer shoulder function in the modified radical ND group. One trial evaluated sentinel node biopsy versus elective ND in 279 participants. There may be little or no difference between the interventions in overall survival (HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.11; low certainty), disease-free survival (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.07; low certainty), or locoregional recurrence (HR 1.04, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.19; low certainty). The trial provided no usable data for recurrence, and reported no adverse events (very low certainty). One trial evaluated positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT) following chemoradiotherapy (with ND only if no or incomplete response) versus planned ND (before or after chemoradiotherapy) in 564 participants. There is probably no difference between the interventions in overall survival (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.65 to 1.31; moderate certainty) or locoregional recurrence (HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.06; moderate certainty). One trial evaluated surgery plus radiotherapy versus radiotherapy alone and provided very low-certainty evidence of better overall survival in the surgery plus radiotherapy group (HR 0.24, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.59; 35 participants). The data were unreliable because the trial stopped early and had multiple protocol violations. In terms of adverse events, subcutaneous fibrosis was more frequent in the surgery plus radiotherapy group, but there were no differences in other adverse events (very low certainty). One trial evaluated surgery versus radiotherapy alone for oropharyngeal cancer in 68 participants. There may be little or no difference between the interventions for overall survival (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.09 to 7.46; low certainty) or disease-free survival (HR 1.07, 95% CI 0.27 to 4.22; low certainty). For adverse events, there were too many outcomes to draw reliable conclusions. One trial evaluated surgery plus adjuvant radiotherapy versus chemotherapy. We were unable to use the data for any of the outcomes reported (very low certainty). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: We found moderate-certainty evidence based on five trials that elective neck dissection of clinically negative neck nodes at the time of removal of the primary oral cavity tumour is superior to therapeutic neck dissection, with increased survival and disease-free survival, and reduced locoregional recurrence. There was moderate-certainty evidence from one trial of no difference between positron emission tomography (PET-CT) following chemoradiotherapy versus planned neck dissection in terms of overall survival or locoregional recurrence. The evidence for each of the other seven comparisons came from only one or two studies and was assessed as low or very low-certainty.
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Recidiva Local de Neoplasia , Neoplasias Orofaríngeas , Humanos , Imunoterapia , Boca , Pescoço , Neoplasias Orofaríngeas/cirurgia , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como AssuntoRESUMO
Introduction This study aimed to quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on access and inequalities in primary care dental services among children and adults in Scotland.Methods Access was measured as any NHS Scotland primary care dental contacts derived from administrative data from January 2019 to May 2022, linked to the area-based Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation for children and adults, and related to population denominator estimates from National Record Scotland. Inequalities for pre-pandemic (January 2019-January 2020) and recent (December 2021-February 2022, and March 2022-May 2022) periods for both children and adults were calculated and compared using the slope index of inequality and relative index of inequality.Results Following the first lockdown (March 2020) there was a dramatic fall to near zero dental contacts, followed by a slow recovery to 64.8% of pre-pandemic levels by May 2022. There was initial widening of relative inequalities in dental contacts in early 2022, which, more recently, had begun to return to pre-pandemic levels.Conclusion COVID-19 had a major impact on access to NHS primary dental care, and while inequalities in access are apparent as services recover from lockdown, these inequalities are not a new phenomenon.
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OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown measures on HNC, by comparing the stage at presentation and treatment of HNC before and after the most severe COVID-19 restrictions. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study. SETTING: A regional cancer network serving a patient population of 2.4 million. PARTICIPANTS: Newly diagnosed patients with HNC between June and October 2019 (pre-pandemic) and June and October 2021 (post-pandemic). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Symptom duration before diagnosis, stage at diagnosis, patient performance status (PS) and intent of treatment delivered (palliative vs. curative). RESULTS: Five hundred forty-five patients were evaluated-250 in the 2019 and 295 in the 2021 cohort. There were no significant differences in symptom duration between the cohorts (p = .359) or patient PS (p = .821). There were no increased odds of presenting with a late (Stage III or IV) AJCC cancer stage in 2021 compared with 2019 (odds ratio [OR] = 0.90; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.76-1.08); nor increased odds of receiving palliative rather than curative treatment in 2021 compared with 2019 (OR = 0.68; 95% CI: 0.45-1.03). CONCLUSION: The predicted stage shift to more advanced disease at the time of diagnosis of HNC due to the COVID-19 pandemic has not been realised in the longer term. In keeping with this, there was no difference in symptom duration, patient PS, or treatment patterns between the 2019 and 2021 cohorts.
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COVID-19 , Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço , Humanos , Pandemias , Estudos Retrospectivos , Controle de Doenças TransmissíveisRESUMO
In the early 2000s, a Scottish Government Oral Health Action Plan identified the need for a national programme to improve child oral health and reduce inequalities. 'Childsmile' aimed to improve child oral health in Scotland, reduce inequalities in outcomes and access to dental services, and to shift the balance of care from treatment to prevention through targeted and universal components in dental practice, community and educational settings. This paper describes how an embedded, theory-based research and evaluation arm with multi-disciplinary input helps determine priorities and provides important strategic direction. Programme theory is articulated in dedicated, dynamic logic models, and evaluation themes are as follows: population-level data linkage; trials and economic evaluations; investigations drawing from behavioural and implementation science; evidence reviews and updates; and applications of systems science. There is also a growing knowledge sharing network internationally. Collaborative working from all stakeholders is necessary to maintain gains and to address areas that may not be working as well, and never more so with the major disruptions to the programme from the COVID-19 pandemic and response. Conclusions are that evaluation and research are synergistic with a complex, dynamic programme like Childsmile. The evidence obtained allows for appraisal of the relative strengths of component interventions and the reach and impact of Childsmile to feed into national policy.
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COVID-19 , Assistência Odontológica para Crianças , Criança , Humanos , Saúde Bucal , Pandemias , Escócia/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Head and neck cancer is often diagnosed late and prognosis for most head and neck cancer patients remains poor. To aid early detection, we developed a risk prediction model based on demographic and lifestyle risk factors, human papillomavirus (HPV) serological markers and genetic markers. A total of 10 126 head and neck cancer cases and 5254 controls from five North American and European studies were included. HPV serostatus was determined by antibodies for HPV16 early oncoproteins (E6, E7) and regulatory early proteins (E1, E2, E4). The data were split into a training set (70%) for model development and a hold-out testing set (30%) for model performance evaluation, including discriminative ability and calibration. The risk models including demographic, lifestyle risk factors and polygenic risk score showed a reasonable predictive accuracy for head and neck cancer overall. A risk model that also included HPV serology showed substantially improved predictive accuracy for oropharyngeal cancer (AUC = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.92-0.95 in men and AUC = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.88-0.95 in women). The 5-year absolute risk estimates showed distinct trajectories by risk factor profiles. Based on the UK Biobank cohort, the risks of developing oropharyngeal cancer among 60 years old and HPV16 seropositive in the next 5 years ranged from 5.8% to 14.9% with an average of 8.1% for men, 1.3% to 4.4% with an average of 2.2% for women. Absolute risk was generally higher among individuals with heavy smoking, heavy drinking, HPV seropositivity and those with higher polygenic risk score. These risk models may be helpful for identifying people at high risk of developing head and neck cancer.
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Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço , Proteínas Oncogênicas Virais , Neoplasias Orofaríngeas , Infecções por Papillomavirus , Masculino , Humanos , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Papillomavirus Humano , Marcadores Genéticos , Fatores de Risco , Papillomavirus Humano 16/genética , Anticorpos Antivirais , Fatores de Transcrição/genética , Proteínas Oncogênicas Virais/genéticaRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: Inequalities in child oral health are a global challenge and the intersection of socioeconomic factors with educational additional support needs (ASN), including children with intellectual disabilities or autism, have thus far received limited attention in relatively small clinical studies. We aimed to address this evidence gap by investigating oral health and access to preventive dental services among children with ASN compared to the general child population. METHODS: Cohort study linking data from six Scotland-wide health and education databases compared: dental caries experience and tooth extraction via general anaesthetic; receipt of school-based dental inspection; access to primary care and hospital dental services; and access to the Childsmile national oral health improvement programme between children with a range of ASN (intellectual disabilities, autism, social and other) and their peers for the school years 2016/17-2018/19 (n = 166 781). RESULTS: Children with any ASN had higher rates of caries experience than those with no ASN, however, after adjustment for socioeconomic deprivation, sex, year, and school type only those with a social or other ASN remained at increased risk. Rates of tooth extraction under general anaesthesia in hospital were higher among children with intellectual disabilities (aRR = 1.67;95% CI = [1.16-2.37]). School-based dental inspection access improved for children with intellectual disability and/or autism from 2016/17 onwards, although higher rates of child refusal on the day were observed in these groups (no ASN refusal: 5.4%; intellectual disability: 35.8%; autism: 40.3%). Children with any ASN were less likely to attend primary dental-care regularly, and in those who attended, children with intellectual disability or autism were less likely than their peers to receive prevention (fluoride varnish, oral-hygiene instruction, or dietary advice). Childsmile nursery-supervised toothbrushing programme access among children with any ASN was similar to children with no ASN and children with intellectual disability (aRR = 1.27;95% CI = [1.12-1.45]) or autism (aRR = 1.32;95% CI = [1.19-1.45]) were more likely to receive support from Childsmile dental health support worker. CONCLUSIONS: We have identified inequalities in oral health and dental care for children with different ASN in Scotland with both a greater burden of disease among some groups and higher complexity of care; compounded by reduced and variable access to preventive dental services. Further efforts are needed to develop and improve preventive care pathways for children with ASN and integrate oral health to wider healthcare systems for these children to mitigate against oral health inequalities.
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Transtorno Autístico , Cárie Dentária , Deficiência Intelectual , Criança , Humanos , Cárie Dentária/epidemiologia , Cárie Dentária/prevenção & controle , Saúde Bucal , Deficiência Intelectual/complicações , Deficiência Intelectual/epidemiologia , Estudos de Coortes , Assistência OdontológicaRESUMO
Introduction: Tooth extraction due to dental caries is associated with socioeconomic deprivation and is a major reason for elective childhood hospital admissions in England. Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages is a risk factor for dental caries. We examined whether the soft drinks industry levy (SDIL), announced in March 2016 and implemented in April 2018, was associated with changes in incidence rates of hospital admissions for carious tooth extraction in children, 22 months post-SDIL implementation. Methods: Changes in incidence rates of monthly National Health Service hospital admissions for extraction of teeth due to a primary diagnosis of dental caries (International Classification of Diseases; ICD-10 code: K02) in England, between January 2012 and February 2020, were estimated using interrupted time series and compared with a counterfactual scenario where SDIL was not announced or implemented. Periodical changes in admissions, autocorrelation and population structure were accounted for. Estimates were calculated overall, by Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) fifths and by age group (0-4 years, 5-9 years, 10-14 years, 15-18 years). Results: Compared with the counterfactual scenario, there was a relative reduction of 12.1% (95% CI 17.0% to 7.2%) in hospital admissions for carious tooth extractions in all children (0-18 years). Children aged 0-4 years and 5-9 years had relative reductions of 28.6% (95% CI 35.6% to 21.5%) and 5.5% (95% CI 10.5% to 0.5%), respectively; no change was observed for older children. Reductions were observed in children living in most IMD areas regardless of deprivation. Conclusion: The UK SDIL was associated with reductions in incidence rates of childhood hospital admissions for carious tooth extractions, across most areas regardless of deprivation status and especially in younger children. Trial registration number: ISRCTN18042742.
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Background: Cancer risk assessment models are used to support prevention and early detection. However, few models have been developed for head and neck cancer (HNC). Methods: A rapid review of Embase and MEDLINE identified n = 3045 articles. Following dual screening, n = 14 studies were included. Quality appraisal using the PROBAST (risk of bias) instrument was conducted, and a narrative synthesis was performed to identify the best performing models in terms of risk factors and designs. Results: Six of the 14 models were assessed as "high" quality. Of these, three had high predictive performance achieving area under curve values over 0.8 (0.87-0.89). The common features of these models were their inclusion of predictors carefully tailored to the target population/anatomical subsite and development with external validation. Conclusions: Some existing models do possess the potential to identify and stratify those at risk of HNC but there is scope for improvement.
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Introduction Head and neck cancer appears to be increasing in incidence, with potential changes in aetiology proposed. This paper aims to provide a narrative overview of the epidemiological literature to describe the disease burden and trends in terms of incidence and mortality both in the UK and globally and to review the evidence on current risk factors.Methods A search was performed on multiple databases (PubMed and Epistemonikos), applying filters to identify systematic reviews and meta-analyses which investigated head and neck cancer incidence, mortality and risk factors. International and UK cancer registries and sources were searched for incidence and mortality data.Results Multiple definitions of head and neck cancer are employed in epidemiology. Globally, incidence rates have increased in recent decades, largely driven by oropharyngeal cancer. Mortality rates over the last decade have also started to rise, reflecting the disease incidence and static survival rates. Major risk factors include tobacco smoking alone and in combination with alcohol consumption, betel chewing (particularly in Southeast Asian populations) and the human papillomavirus in oropharyngeal cancer.Conclusions These epidemiological data can inform clinical and preventive service planning for head and neck cancer.