Stable isotope-based trophic structure of pelagic fish and jellyfish across natural and anthropogenic landscape gradients in a fjord estuary.

Identifying causes of structural ecosystem shifts often requires understanding trophic structure, an important determinant of energy flow in ecological communities. In coastal pelagic ecosystems worldwide, increasing jellyfish (Cnidaria and Ctenophora) at the expense of small fish has been linked to anthropogenic alteration of basal trophic pathways. However, this hypothesis remains untested in part because baseline description of fish-jellyfish trophic dynamics, and the environmental features that influence them are lacking. Using stable isotopes of carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N), we examined spatiotemporal patterns of fish and jellyfish trophic structure in greater Puget Sound, an urbanizing fjord estuary in the NW United States. We quantified niche positions of constituent species, niche widths and trophic overlap between fish and jellyfish assemblages, and several community-level trophic diversity metrics (resource diversity, trophic length, and niche widths) of fish and jellyfish combined. We then related assemblage- and community-level measures to landscape gradients of terrestrial-marine connectivity and anthropogenic influence in adjacent catchments. Relative niche positions among species varied considerably and displayed no clear pattern except that fish generally had higher δ15N and lower δ13C relative to jellyfish, which resulted in low assemblage-level trophic overlap. Fish assemblages had larger niche widths than jellyfish in most cases and, along with whole community trophic diversity, exhibited contrasting seasonal patterns across oceanographic basins, which was positively correlated to landscape variation in terrestrial connectivity. In contrast, jellyfish niche widths were unrelated to terrestrial connectivity, but weakly negatively correlated to urban land use in adjacent catchments. Our results indicate that fish-jellyfish trophic structure is highly heterogeneous and that disparate processes may underlie the trophic ecology of these taxa; consequently, they may respond divergently to environmental change. In addition, spatiotemporal variation in ecosystem connectivity, in this case through freshwater influence, may influence trophic structure across heterogeneous landscapes.

Sampling errors create bias in Markov models for community dynamics: the problem and a method for its solution.

Repeated, spatially explicit sampling is widely used to characterize the dynamics of sessile communities in both terrestrial and aquatic systems, yet our understanding of the consequences of errors made in such sampling is limited. In particular, when Markov transition probabilities are calculated by tracking individual points over time, misidentification of the same spatial locations will result in biased estimates of transition probabilities, successional rates, and community trajectories. Nonetheless, to date, all published studies that use such data have implicitly assumed that resampling occurs without error when making estimates of transition rates. Here, we develop and test a straightforward maximum likelihood approach, based on simple field estimates of resampling errors, to arrive at corrected estimates of transition rates between species in a rocky intertidal community. We compare community Markov models based on raw and corrected transition estimates using data from Endocladia muricata-dominated plots in a California intertidal assemblage, finding that uncorrected predictions of succession consistently overestimate recovery time. We tested the precision and accuracy of the approach using simulated datasets and found good performance of our estimation method over a range of realistic sample sizes and error rates.