Cost effectiveness of spread mitigation strategies for polyphagous shot hole borer Euwallacea fornicatus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae).

Polyphagous shot hole borer Euwallacea fornicatus Eichhoff was detected in Western Australia in September 2021, and an eradication campaign funded by the Commonwealth government is underway. As part of contingency planning, we examined the cost effectiveness of alternative control strategies that could be used to mitigate urban forest impacts and maintain the benefits of trees to the local communities if eradication was not feasible. At the time this work was undertaken, decision-makers were concerned about the potential need to replace all urban trees susceptible to attack. We considered this strategy alongside less destructive strategies and assessed their cost effectiveness in terms of material and labor costs and the loss of ecosystem services resulting from reduced tree foliage. Using a stochastic simulation model, we found that a strategy that involved pruning necrotic limbs and treating trees biennially with systemic insecticide was almost always more cost effective than removing infested trees and replanting to resistant varieties. We estimated this strategy would cost A$55-110 million over 50 years, while tree removal would cost $105-195 million. A third strategy using a mix of chemical suppression and tree removal was also considered in light of new information about the pest's host preferences. With an estimated cost of $60-110 million, this strategy was only slightly more expensive than using chemical suppression alone and could actually lead to eradication if the host range is as narrow as recent survey data suggests.

A benefit-cost analysis of different response scenarios to COVID-19: A case study.

BACKGROUND: This paper compares the direct benefits to the State of Western Australia from employing a "suppression" policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic rather than a "herd immunity" approach. METHODS: An S-I-R (susceptible-infectious-resolved) model is used to estimate the likely benefits of a suppression COVID-19 response compared to a herd immunity alternative. Direct impacts of the virus are calculated on the basis of sick leave, hospitalizations, and fatalities, while indirect impacts related to response actions are excluded. RESULTS: Preliminary modeling indicates that approximately 1700 vulnerable person deaths are likely to have been prevented over 1 year from adopting a suppression response rather than a herd immunity response, and approximately 4500 hospitalizations. These benefits are valued at around AUD4.7 billion. If a do nothing policy had been adopted, the number of people in need of hospitalization is likely to have overwhelmed the hospital system within 50 days of the virus being introduced. Maximum hospital capacity is unlikely to be reached in either a suppression policy or a herd immunity policy. CONCLUSION: Using early international estimates to represent the negative impact each type of policy response is likely to have on gross state product, results suggest the benefit-cost ratio for the suppression policy is slightly higher than that of the herd immunity policy, but both benefit-cost ratios are less than one.

What Will Fall Armyworm (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) Cost Western Australian Agriculture?

Following the detection of fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith, Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in Western Australia in early 2020 and the lack of government response action, we estimate the impact it is likely to have on the state's agriculture. A bioeconomic model is used to estimate cost and revenue implications for broadacre cropping and horticulture industries. We assume permanent S. frugiperda populations are likely to establish in areas of the state's north and mid-west over the next decade, and other regions may experience sporadic outbreaks over single seasons. Over 0.8 million hectares of host crops could be permanently affected, while sporadic outbreaks may affect a further 150,000 hectares. Expressed in Australian dollars (A$), S. frugiperda is likely to add a A$14.2-39.3 million burden to agricultural producers per annum by year 10 of the outbreak. Approximately 55% of these damage costs are attributable to yield loss and 45% to increased variable production costs.

Global threat to agriculture from invasive species.

Invasive species present significant threats to global agriculture, although how the magnitude and distribution of the threats vary between countries and regions remains unclear. Here, we present an analysis of almost 1,300 known invasive insect pests and pathogens, calculating the total potential cost of these species invading each of 124 countries of the world, as well as determining which countries present the greatest threat to the rest of the world given their trading partners and incumbent pool of invasive species. We find that countries vary in terms of potential threat from invasive species and also their role as potential sources, with apparently similar countries sometimes varying markedly depending on specifics of agricultural commodities and trade patterns. Overall, the biggest agricultural producers (China and the United States) could experience the greatest absolute cost from further species invasions. However, developing countries, in particular, Sub-Saharan African countries, appear most vulnerable in relative terms. Furthermore, China and the United States represent the greatest potential sources of invasive species for the rest of the world. The analysis reveals considerable scope for ongoing redistribution of known invasive pests and highlights the need for international cooperation to slow their spread.

A systematic strategic planning process focused on improved community engagement by an academic health center: the University of Kansas Medical Center's story.

A growing number of academic health centers (AHCs) are considering approaches to expand collaboration with their communities in order to address complex and multisystem health concerns. In 2010, internal leaders at the University of Kansas Medical Center undertook a strategic planning process to enhance both community engagement activities and the scholarship resulting from these engagement activities. The authors describe the strategic planning process, recommendations, and actions associated with elevating community engagement within the AHC's mission and priorities. The strategic planning process included conducting an inventory of community engagement activities within the AHC; analyzing strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats for community engagement work; and identifying goals and strategies to improve future community engagement activities and scholarship. The resulting road map for enhancing community engagement at their institution through 2015 consists of four main strategies: emphasize scholarship in community engagement, revise organizational structures to better facilitate community engagement, prioritize current engagement activities to ensure appropriate use of resources, and enhance communication of engagement initiatives to further develop stakeholder relationships.The authors also discuss implementation of the plan to date and highlight lessons learned that may inform other AHCs as they enhance and expand similar endeavors.

Linking climate suitability, spread rates and host-impact when estimating the potential costs of invasive pests.

Biosecurity agencies need robust bioeconomic tools to help inform policy and allocate scarce management resources. They need to estimate the potential for each invasive alien species (IAS) to create negative impacts, so that relative and absolute comparisons can be made. Using pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa sensu lato) as an example, these needs were met by combining species niche modelling, dispersal modelling, host impact and economic modelling. Within its native range (the Mediterranean Basin and adjacent areas), T. pityocampa causes significant defoliation of pines and serious urticating injuries to humans. Such severe impacts overseas have fuelled concerns about its potential impacts, should it be introduced to New Zealand. A stochastic bioeconomic model was used to estimate the impact of PPM invasion in terms of pine production value lost due to a hypothetical invasion of New Zealand by T. pityocampa. The bioeconomic model combines a semi-mechanistic niche model to develop a climate-related damage function, a climate-related forest growth model, and a stochastic spread model to estimate the present value (PV) of an invasion. Simulated invasions indicate that Thaumetopoea pityocampa could reduce New Zealand's merchantable and total pine stem volume production by 30%, reducing forest production by between NZ$1,550 M to NZ$2,560 M if left untreated. Where T. pityocampa is controlled using aerial application of an insecticide, projected losses in PV were reduced, but still significant (NZ$30 M to NZ$2,210 M). The PV estimates were more sensitive to the efficacy of the spray program than the potential rate of spread of the moth. Our novel bioeconomic method provides a refined means of estimating potential impacts of invasive alien species, taking into account climatic effects on asset values, the potential for pest impacts, and pest spread rates.

Predicting the benefits of banana bunchy top virus exclusion from commercial plantations in Australia.

Benefit cost analysis is a tried and tested analytical framework that can clearly communicate likely net changes in producer welfare from investment decisions to diverse stakeholder audiences. However, in a plant biosecurity context, it is often difficult to predict policy benefits over time due to complex biophysical interactions between invasive species, their hosts, and the environment. In this paper, we demonstrate how a break-even style benefit cost analysis remains highly relevant to biosecurity decision-makers using the example of banana bunchy top virus, a plant pathogen targeted for eradication from banana growing regions of Australia. We develop an analytical approach using a stratified diffusion spread model to simulate the likely benefits of exclusion of this virus from commercial banana plantations over time relative to a nil management scenario in which no surveillance or containment activities take place. Using Monte Carlo simulation to generate a range of possible future incursion scenarios, we predict the exclusion benefits of the disease will avoid Aus$15.9-27.0 million in annual losses for the banana industry. For these exclusion benefits to be reduced to zero would require a bunchy top re-establishment event in commercial banana plantations three years in every four. Sensitivity analysis indicates that exclusion benefits can be greatly enhanced through improvements in disease surveillance and incursion response.

Biosecurity and yield improvement technologies are strategic complements in the fight against food insecurity.

The delivery of food security via continued crop yield improvement alone is not an effective food security strategy, and must be supported by pre- and post-border biosecurity policies to guard against perverse outcomes. In the wake of the green revolution, yield gains have been in steady decline, while post-harvest crop losses have increased as a result of insufficiently resourced and uncoordinated efforts to control spoilage throughout global transport and storage networks. This paper focuses on the role that biosecurity is set to play in future food security by preventing both pre- and post-harvest losses, thereby protecting crop yield. We model biosecurity as a food security technology that may complement conventional yield improvement policies if the gains in global farm profits are sufficient to offset the costs of implementation and maintenance. Using phytosanitary measures that slow global spread of the Ug99 strain of wheat stem rust as an example of pre-border biosecurity risk mitigation and combining it with post-border surveillance and invasive alien species control efforts, we estimate global farm profitability may be improved by over US$4.5 billion per annum.

Phase behaviour and conductivity study of electrolytes in supercritical hydrofluorocarbons.

The purpose of this work was to characterise supercritical hydrofluorocarbons (HFC) that can be used as solvents for electrodeposition. The phase behaviour of CHF(3), CH(2)F(2), and CH(2)FCF(3) containing [NBu(n)(4)][BF(4)], [NBu(n)(4)][B{3,5-C(6)H(3)(CF(3))(2)}(4)] and Na[B{3,5-C(6)H(3)(CF(3))(2)}(4)] was studied and the conditions for forming a single supercritical phase established. Although all three HFCs are good solvents for [NBu(n)(4)][BF(4)] the results show that the CH(2)F(2) system has the lowest p(r) for dissolving a given amount of [NBu(n)(4)][BF(4)]. The solubility of Na[B{3,5-C(6)H(3)(CF(3))(2)}(4)] in CH(2)F(2) was found to be unexpectedly high. Studies of the phase behaviour of CH(2)F(2) containing [NBu(n)(4)][BF(4)] and [Cu(CH(3)CN)(4)][BF(4)] showed that the copper complex was unstable in the absence of CH(3)CN. For CHF(3), [Cu(hfac)(2)] was more soluble and more stable than [Cu(CH(3)CN)(4)][BF(4)] and only increased the phase-separation pressure by a moderate amount. Studies of the conductivity of [NBu(n)(4)][B(C(6)F(5))(4)], [NBu(n)(4)][B{3,5-C(6)H(3)(CF(3))(2)}(4)], [NR(f)Bu(n)(3)][B{3,5-C(6)H(3)(CF(3))(2)}(4)] (R(f) = (CH(2))(3)C(7)F(15)), and Na[B{3,5-C(6)H(3)(CF(3))(2)}(4)] were carried out in scCH(2)F(2). The results show that these salts are more conducting than [NBu(n)(4)][BF(4)] under the same conditions although the increase is much less significant than that reported in previous work in supercritical CO(2) + CH(3)CN. Consequently, either [NBu(n)(4)][BF(4)] or the corresponding BARF salts would be suitable background electrolytes for electrodeposition from scCH(2)F(2).

Threat of invasive pests from within national borders.

Predicting and ranking potential invasive species present significant challenges to researchers and biosecurity agencies. Here we analyse a worldwide database of pest species assemblages to generate lists of the top 100 insect pests most likely to establish in the United States and each of its 48 contiguous states. For the United States as a whole, all of the top 100 pest species have already established. Individual states however tend to have many more 'gaps' with most states having at least 20 species absent from their top 100 list. For all but one state, every exotic pest species currently absent from a state's top 100 can be found elsewhere in the contiguous United States. We conclude that the immediate threat from known invasive insect pests is greater from within the United States than without. Our findings have potentially significant implications for biosecurity policy, emphasizing the need to consider biosecurity measures beyond established national border interventions.

Adaptive approaches to biosecurity governance.

This article discusses institutional changes that may facilitate an adaptive approach to biosecurity risk management where governance is viewed as a multidisciplinary, interactive experiment acknowledging uncertainty. Using the principles of adaptive governance, evolved from institutional theory, we explore how the concepts of lateral information flows, incentive alignment, and policy experimentation might shape Australia's invasive species defense mechanisms. We suggest design principles for biosecurity policies emphasizing overlapping complementary response capabilities and the sharing of invasive species risks via a polycentric system of governance.

Phase behaviour and conductivity study on multi-component mixtures for electrodeposition in supercritical fluids.

Electrochemistry in supercritical CO(2) (scCO(2)) is difficult because the very low dielectric constant of the fluid restricts the solubility of ionic species and the conductivity of dissolved electrolytes. To overcome this problem to allow us to carry out electrodeposition at macroelectrodes from scCO(2) we have investigated the use of co-solvents and modified electrolyte salts chosen to increase their solubility and dissociation in the supercritical fluid. Here we report results of phase behaviour studies for mixtures of CO(2) with [NBu(n)(4)][BF(4)] and either methanol (CH(3)OH) or acetonitrile (CH(3)CN) as the co-solvent. These show that the solubility of [NBu(n)(4)][BF(4)] is approximately 5 times larger when CH(3)CN is the co-solvent rather than CH(3)OH. Consequently the phase behaviour of the ternary of CO(2)-[NBu(n)(4)][BF(4)]-CH(3)CN was studied in greater detail over a range of compositions. To enhance the conductivity of scCO(2)-CH(3)CN a range of electrolyte salts was synthesised in which the [NBu(n)(4)](+) and/or [BF(4)](-) ion were replaced by different derivatives. Results for the phase behaviour and conductivity of these modified electrolyte salts in scCO(2)-CH(3)CN are reported for several different compositions. We find that increasing the degree of fluorination and size of the ions increases the solubility of the electrolyte salt in scCO(2)-CH(3)CN. Of the 11 electrolytes investigated [NBu(n)(4)][B{3,5-C(6)H(3)(CF(3))(2)}(4)] appears the most suitable for use in scCO(2)-CH(3)CN with a molar conductivity of 22-26 S cm(2) mol(-1) and a maximum measured conductivity of approximately 3 mS cm(-1) for 0.07 M [NBu(n)(4)][B{3,5-C(6)H(3)(CF(3))(2)}(4)] dissolved in scCO(2)-CH(3)CN (molar ratio CH(3)CN : CO(2) approximately 0.12) at 20 MPa and 328.15 K. This is an order of magnitude improvement over similar results for the [NBu(n)(4)][BF(4)] parent. Studies of the conductance as a function of the electrolyte concentration suggest that triple ions make an important contribution to the conductivity of the supercritical fluid.

Predicting the economic impact of an invasive species on an ecosystem service.

Quantifying the impact of alien invasive species on ecosystem services is an essential step in developing effective practices and policy for invasive species management. Here we develop a stochastic bioeconomic model that enables the economic impact of an invasive pest to be estimated before its arrival, based on relatively poorly specified ecological and economic parameters. We developed the model by using a hypothetical invasion of the varroa bee mite (Varroa destructor) into Australia and the negative flow-on effects that it would have on pollination by reducing honey bee populations, giving rise to a loss of pollination services, reduced crop yields, and additional production costs. If the mite were to continue to be prevented from entering the country over the next 30 years, we estimate that the economic costs avoided would be U.S. $16.4-38.8 million (Aus $21.3-50.5 million) per year. We suggest that current invasion response funding arrangements in Australia, which do not acknowledge these avoided damages, require amendment.