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BACKGROUND: Nipple-sparing mastectomy (NSM) is increasingly used for women with breast cancer who are not candidates for conservative surgery. The authors previously reported satisfying results with NSM after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT). METHODS: From 2010 to 2020, 1072 women underwent mastectomy at the authors' institution. In this group, 433 NSMs were performed (40%). The only contraindications to NSM were close proximity to the nipple-areola complex (NAC), bloody discharge, and Paget disease. RESULTS: In 112 cases involving 111 women, NSM followed NACT (group 1), whereas it was performed as primary surgery in 321 instances involving 306 women (group 2). At 5 years, local relapse was 7% in group 1 and 2% in group 2, although in the multivariate analysis, locoregional relapses (LRRs) did not differ between the two groups. An increased incidence of local relapse was associated with higher tumor stage (stage III; p = 0.046) and age younger than 51 years (p = 0.038). For 34 (30.3%) of the 111 women in group 1 with a pathologic complete response (pCR), no LRRs were recorded. Only one NAC recurrence was observed. Overall survival with each tumor stage did not differ between the two groups. No differences in complications were observed. Cosmetic results were satisfying in 83.8% of the cases and did not get worse after NACT. CONCLUSIONS: The study data definitively confirm that NSM is safe even after NACT, with good cosmetic results and complications comparable with those in the primary surgery setting. Tumor stage and age were the only independent factors for local relapse. Patients with pCR enjoyed optimal locoregional control.
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Neoplasias da Mama , Mamoplastia , Mastectomia Subcutânea , Humanos , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Neoplasias da Mama/tratamento farmacológico , Neoplasias da Mama/cirurgia , Neoplasias da Mama/patologia , Mastectomia/métodos , Terapia Neoadjuvante , Mamilos/cirurgia , Mamilos/patologia , Seguimentos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Recidiva Local de Neoplasia/patologia , Mastectomia Subcutânea/métodos , Mamoplastia/métodosRESUMO
T-cell lymphoblastic lymphoma (T-LBL) and lymphoblastic leukemia (T-ALL) arise from the transformation of precursor T-cells sharing common morphological and immunophenotypic features. Despite this, T-LBL and T-ALL show different genomic/transcriptomic profiles and whether they represent two distinct disease entities or variant manifestations of the same disease is still a matter of debate. In this work, we performed a Reverse Phase Protein Array study on T-LBL and T-ALL samples and demonstrated that they are characterized by a different phosphoproteomic profile. Indeed, T-LBLs showed the hyperactivation of FAK/ERK1/2 and AKT/mTOR pathways, whereas JAK/STAT pathway was significantly hyperphosphorylated in T-ALLs. Moreover, since the only criteria for discriminating T-LBL from T-ALL is blasts' infiltration below 25% in the bone marrow and lymphoma patients can present with a percentage of blasts close to this cut-off, a biomarker that could help distinguishing the two diseases would be of great help for the clinical diagnosis and treatment decision. Pursuing this aim, we identified a proteomic signature of six proteins whose expression/activation was able to discriminate stage IV T-LBL from T-ALL. Moreover, we demonstrated that AKT hyperphosphorylation alone was able to distinguish stage IV T-LBL from both T-ALL and stage III T-LBL. Concluding, these data demonstrate that T-ALL and T-LBL bear different phosphoproteomic profiles, further sustaining the hypothesis of the two disease as different entities and paving the way for the identification of new biomarkers able to distinguish stage IV T-LBL from T-ALL disease, so far based only on BM involvement criteria.
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BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a highly lethal cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. As demonstrated in other solid neoplasms and HCC, infiltrating CD8+ T cells seem to be related to a better prognosis, but the mechanisms affecting the immune landscape in HCC are still mostly unknown. Necroptosis is a programmed, caspase-independent cell death that, unlike apoptosis, evokes immune response by releasing damage-associated molecular factors. However, in HCC, the relationship between the necroptotic machinery and the tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes has not been fully investigated so far. METHODS: We investigated the association between the main necroptosis-related genes, that is, RIPK1, RIPK3, MLKL-p, and CD3+/CD8+ tumor-infiltrating T cell by RNA-seq data analysis in 371 patients with primary HCC from The Cancer Genome Atlas and then by immunohistochemistry in two independent cohorts of HCC patients from Italy (82) and Japan (86). RESULTS: Our findings highlighted the immunogenetic role of necroptosis and its potential prognostic role in HCC: RIPK1, RIPK3 and MLKL-p were found significantly associated with intratumoral CD3+ and CD8+ T cells. In addition, multivariate survival analysis showed that the expression of RIPK1, RIPK3 and MLKL-p was associated with better overall survival in the two independent cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirmed the immunogenetic properties of necroptosis (NCP) in human HCC, showing that tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) and, specifically, CD8+ T cells accumulate in tumors with higher expression of the necroptosis-related genes. These results suggest the importance of further studies to better assess the specific composition, as well as the functional features of the immune environment associated with a necroptotic signature in order to explore new possible diagnostic and immunotherapeutic scenarios.
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Carcinoma Hepatocelular , Neoplasias Hepáticas , Linfócitos T CD8-Positivos/metabolismo , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/genética , Contagem de Células , Humanos , Neoplasias Hepáticas/genética , Necroptose/genética , Prognóstico , Proteínas Quinases/genética , Proteínas Quinases/metabolismo , Proteína Serina-Treonina Quinases de Interação com Receptores/genética , Proteína Serina-Treonina Quinases de Interação com Receptores/metabolismoRESUMO
Lymphoblastic lymphoma (LBL) is the second most common type of non-Hodgkin lymphoma in childhood, mainly of T cell origin (T-LBL). Although current treatment protocols allow a complete remission in 85% of cases, the second-line treatment overall survival for patients with progressive or relapsed disease is around 14%, making this the major issue to be confronted. Thus, we performed a Reverse Phase Protein Array study in a cohort of 22 T-LBL patients to find reliable disease risk marker(s) and new therapeutic targets to improve pediatric T-LBL patients' outcome. Interestingly, we pinpointed JAK2 Y1007-1008 as a potential prognosis marker as well as a therapeutic target in poor prognosis patients. Hence, the hyperactivation of the JAK1/2-STAT6 pathway characterizes these latter patients. Moreover, we functionally demonstrated that STAT6 hyperactivation contributes to therapy resistance by binding the glucocorticoid receptor, thus inhibiting its transcriptional activity. This was further confirmed by specific STAT6 gene silencing followed by dexamethasone treatment. Finally, JAK1/2-STAT6 pathway inhibition by ruxolitinib, an FDA approved drug, in cell line models and in one T-LBL primary sample led to cell proliferation reduction and increased apoptosis. Globally, our results identify a new potential prognostic marker and suggest a novel therapeutic approach to overcome therapy resistance in pediatric T-LBL patients.
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BACKGROUND: Mastectomy represents a deep burden for women with breast cancer. Very little is known about the psychological consequences over time and the quality of life (QoL) of women so treated, with or without breast reconstruction (BR). PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 709 patients underwent mastectomy with or without BR between 2002 and 2012 at one institution. Among 468 surviving patients, a 60-query QoL questionnaire on personal issues including some European Organization for the Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire items was presented either by email, letter, or telephone interview. RESULTS: Of those questioned, 328 patients participated, whereas 140 (30%) declined the invitation or were unavailable. The median age was 63 years (range, 30-93 years). Stage I or II of disease was recorded in 73% of patients. Immediate BR was performed in 168 (51%) of 328 patients. Of the remaining patients, only 7 (4%) of 160 proceeded to delayed BR. Younger women had significantly worse Emotional Functioning and Social Functioning (SF) scores (P < .001), independently of tumor stage, and immediate BR improved that (P = .02). SF score was also worsened by chemotherapy (P = .03). Cognitive Functioning score was independent of age, BR, stage, or adjuvant therapies. Body Image and Sexual Functioning scores improved with BR (P < .03), and age was a strong co-variable (P < .001). On multivariate analysis, immediate BR was correlated with age and preoperative plastic surgery consultation. Some 68 (21%) of 328 patients regretted their decision or were disappointed with their choice regarding BR. CONCLUSIONS: Younger patients with breast cancer report a worse impact on their Emotional Functioning and SF scores after mastectomy, both of which are improved by BR. Reconstructing the breast at the time of mastectomy has a significant impact on Body Image and Sexual Functioning scores. A preoperative plastic surgeon consultation improves the rate of immediate BR, whereas delayed reconstruction is rarely adopted. Some 20% of patients are disappointed in or regret their decision regarding BR. We need to improve our management in consideration of these findings.
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Neoplasias da Mama/psicologia , Neoplasias da Mama/cirurgia , Mamoplastia/psicologia , Mastectomia/psicologia , Satisfação do Paciente , Adaptação Psicológica , Tomada de Decisões , Feminino , Felicidade , Humanos , Mastectomia Segmentar/psicologia , Qualidade de VidaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Guidelines recommend referral for nephrology consultation for people with severe chronic kidney disease (CKD) to improve care and renal outcomes, yet the advocated benefits of nephrology referral on CKD progression in this patient population are unclear. METHODS: We linked laboratory and administrative data in Alberta, Canada to identify adults with stage 4 CKD between 2002 and 2014 (follow-up end on March 31, 2017). We studied the association between time-varying receipt of outpatient nephrology consultation and kidney failure (the earlier of renal replacement initiation or eGFR < 10 mL/min/1.73 m2 for more than 3 months), accounting for the competing risk of death. RESULTS: Of the 14,382 participants, 41% were ≥ 85 years old, 33% saw a nephrologist as an outpatient, 9% developed kidney failure, and 53% died over a median of 2.6 years. Compared with people who did not see a nephrologist before or at 7 months (median time to consultation), those who did were more likely to develop kidney failure [5-year risk (95% CI) 0.23 (0.21-0.24) vs 0.07 (0.065-0.075)]. With increasing age or higher eGFR, the 5-year risk of kidney failure became progressively smaller, from 0.24 (0.18-0.29) at age < 65 to 0.01 (0.006-0.015) at age ≥ 85 years and from 0.21 (0.18-0.23) at eGFR 15-19 to 0.066 (0.060-0.072) at eGFR 25-29 mL/min/1.73 m2; yet, the hazard ratio of kidney failure (1.6-4.3) increased following nephrology consultation in people who were older or had higher eGFR. CONCLUSIONS: Adults with stage 4 CKD who see a nephrologist are more likely to develop kidney failure than those who don't, especially within lower absolute risk categories. Although selective referral may explain these findings, there is no evidence of an association between nephrology care and reduced risk of kidney failure in people with severe CKD. Studies are needed to assess the benefits of nephrology consultation in people with moderate CKD.
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Falência Renal Crônica , Nefrologia , Insuficiência Renal Crônica , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Alberta/epidemiologia , Estudos de Coortes , Progressão da Doença , Taxa de Filtração Glomerular , Humanos , Encaminhamento e Consulta , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/diagnóstico , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/epidemiologia , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/terapiaRESUMO
Glucagon release from the pancreatic alpha-cells is regulated by glucose, but the underlying mechanisms are far from understood. It is known that the alpha-cell population is very heterogeneous, but - compared to the insulin-secreting beta-cells - the consequences of this cell-to-cell variation are much less studied. Since the alpha-cells are not electrically coupled, large differences in the single cell responses are to be expected, and this variation may contribute to the confusion regarding the mechanisms of glucose-induced suppression of glucagon release. Using mathematical modeling of alpha-cells with realistic cell-to-cell parameter variation based on recent experimental results, we show that the simulated alpha-cells exhibit great diversity in their electrophysiological behavior. To robustly reproduce experimental recordings from alpha-cell exposed to a rise in glucose levels, we must assume that both intrinsic mechanisms and paracrine signals contribute to glucose-induced changes in electrical activity. Our simulations suggest that the sum of different electrophysiological responses due to alpha-cell heterogeneity is involved in glucose-suppressed glucagon secretion, and that more than one mechanism contribute to control the alpha-cell populations' behavior. Finally, we apply regression analysis to our synthetic alpha-cell population to infer which membrane currents influence electrical activity in alpha-cells at different glucose levels. The results from such statistical modeling suggest possible disturbances underlying defect regulation of alpha-cell electrical behavior in diabetics. Thus, although alpha-cells appear to be inherently complex and heterogeneous as reflected in published data, realistic modeling of the alpha-cells at the population level provides insight into the mechanisms of glucagon release.
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Células Secretoras de Glucagon , Células Secretoras de Insulina , Pâncreas , Glucagon , Glucose , Insulina , Modelos Teóricos , Pâncreas/citologiaRESUMO
The presence of the chromosomal rearrangement t(12;21)(ETV6-RUNX1) in childhood B-acute lymphoblastic leukemia (B-ALL) is an independent predictor of favorable prognosis, however relapses still occur many years later after stopping therapy, and patients often display resistance to current treatments. Since spleen tyrosine kinase (SYK), a cytosolic nonreceptor tyrosine kinase interacting with immune receptors, has been previously associated with malignant transformation and cancer cell proliferation, we aimed to assess its role in ETV6-RUNX1 cell survival and prognosis. We evaluated the effects on cell survival of three SYK inhibitors and showed that all of them, in particular entospletinib, are able to induce cell death and enhance the efficacy of conventional chemotherapeutics. By using reverse phase protein arrays we next revealed that activated SYK is upregulated at diagnosis in pediatric ETV6-RUNX1 patients who will experience relapse, and, importantly, hyperactivation is maintained at a high level also at relapse occurrence. We thus treated primary cells from patients both at diagnosis and relapse with the combination entospletinib + chemotherapeutics and observed that SYK inhibition is able to sensitize resistant primary cells to conventional drugs. Entospletinib could thus represent a new therapeutic option supporting conventional chemotherapy for relapsed ETV6-RUNX1 patients, and these evidences encourage further studies on SYK for treatment of other relapsed resistant acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) subgroups.
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Subunidade alfa 2 de Fator de Ligação ao Core/metabolismo , Resistencia a Medicamentos Antineoplásicos/efeitos dos fármacos , Recidiva Local de Neoplasia/tratamento farmacológico , Proteínas de Fusão Oncogênica/metabolismo , Leucemia-Linfoma Linfoblástico de Células Precursoras B/tratamento farmacológico , Inibidores de Proteínas Quinases/farmacologia , Quinase Syk/antagonistas & inibidores , Aminopiridinas , Proliferação de Células/efeitos dos fármacos , Criança , Subunidade alfa 2 de Fator de Ligação ao Core/genética , Cicloexilaminas/farmacologia , Humanos , Indazóis/farmacologia , Morfolinas , Recidiva Local de Neoplasia/metabolismo , Recidiva Local de Neoplasia/patologia , Proteínas de Fusão Oncogênica/genética , Oxazinas/farmacologia , Leucemia-Linfoma Linfoblástico de Células Precursoras B/metabolismo , Leucemia-Linfoma Linfoblástico de Células Precursoras B/patologia , Pirazinas/farmacologia , Piridinas/farmacologia , Pirimidinas/farmacologia , Células Tumorais CultivadasRESUMO
The article introduces how to validate regression models in the analysis of competing risks. The prediction accuracy of competing risks regression models can be assessed by discrimination and calibration. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) or Concordance-index, and calibration plots have been widely used as measures of discrimination and calibration, respectively. One-time splitting method can be used for randomly splitting original data into training and test datasets. However, this method reduces sample sizes of both training and testing datasets, and the results can be different by different splitting processes. Thus, the cross-validation method is more appealing. For time-to-event data, model validation is performed at each analysis time point. In this article, we review how to perform model validation using the riskRegression package in R, along with plotting a nomogram for competing risks regression models using the regplot() package.
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Loss of first-phase insulin secretion is an early sign of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D). Ca2+ entry through voltage-gated L-type Ca2+ channels triggers exocytosis of insulin-containing granules in pancreatic ß cells and is required for the postprandial spike in insulin secretion. Using high-resolution microscopy, we have identified a subset of docked insulin granules in human ß cells and rat-derived clonal insulin 1 (INS1) cells for which localized Ca2+ influx triggers exocytosis with high probability and minimal latency. This immediately releasable pool (IRP) of granules, identified both structurally and functionally, was absent in ß cells from human T2D donors and in INS1 cells cultured in fatty acids that mimic the diabetic state. Upon arrival at the plasma membrane, IRP granules slowly associated with 15 to 20 L-type channels. We determined that recruitment depended on a direct interaction with the synaptic protein Munc13, because expression of the II-III loop of the channel, the C2 domain of Munc13-1, or of Munc13-1 with a mutated C2 domain all disrupted L-type channel clustering at granules and ablated fast exocytosis. Thus, rapid insulin secretion requires Munc13-mediated recruitment of L-type Ca2+ channels in close proximity to insulin granules. Loss of this organization underlies disturbed insulin secretion kinetics in T2D.
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Canais de Cálcio Tipo L/metabolismo , Grânulos Citoplasmáticos/metabolismo , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/metabolismo , Insulina/metabolismo , Ilhotas Pancreáticas/metabolismo , Sinalização do Cálcio , Células Cultivadas , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/patologia , Humanos , Secreção de Insulina , Proteínas do Tecido Nervoso/metabolismo , Transporte ProteicoRESUMO
The hazard ratios resulting from a Cox's regression hazards model are hard to interpret and to be converted into prolonged survival time. As the main goal is often to study survival functions, there is increasing interest in summary measures based on the survival function that are easier to interpret than the hazard ratio; the residual mean time is an important example of those measures. However, because of the presence of right censoring, the tail of the survival distribution is often difficult to estimate correctly. Therefore, we consider the restricted residual mean time, which represents a partial area under the survival function, given any time horizon τ, and is interpreted as the residual life expectancy up to τ of a subject surviving up to time t. We present a class of regression models for this measure, based on weighted estimating equations and inverse probability of censoring weighted estimators to model potential right censoring. Furthermore, we show how to extend the models and the estimators to deal with delayed entries. We demonstrate that the restricted residual mean life estimator is equivalent to integrals of Kaplan-Meier estimates in the case of simple factor variables. Estimation performance is investigated by simulation studies. Using real data from Danish Monitoring Cardiovascular Risk Factor Surveys, we illustrate an application to additive regression models and discuss the general assumption of right censoring and left truncation being dependent on covariates. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Análise de Sobrevida , Adulto , Idoso , Doenças Cardiovasculares/mortalidade , Humanos , Estimativa de Kaplan-Meier , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Estatísticos , Probabilidade , Análise de Regressão , Fatores de RiscoRESUMO
Most endocrine cells secrete hormones as a result of Ca2+-regulated exocytosis, i.e., fusion of the membranes of hormone-containing secretory granules with the cell membrane, which allows the hormone molecules to escape to the extracellular space. As in neurons, electrical activity and cell depolarization open voltage-sensitive Ca2+ channels, and the resulting Ca2+ influx elevate the intracellular Ca2+ concentration, which in turn causes exocytosis. Whereas the main molecular components involved in exocytosis are increasingly well understood, quantitative understanding of the dynamical aspects of exocytosis is still lacking. Due to the nontrivial spatiotemporal Ca2+ dynamics, which depends on the particular pattern of electrical activity as well as Ca2+ channel kinetics, exocytosis is dependent on the spatial arrangement of Ca2+ channels and secretory granules. For example, the creation of local Ca2+ microdomains, where the Ca2+ concentration reaches tens of µM, are believed to be important for triggering exocytosis. Spatiotemporal simulations of buffered Ca2+ diffusion have provided important insight into the interplay between electrical activity, Ca2+ channel kinetics, and the location of granules and Ca2+ channels. By confronting simulations with statistical time-to-event (or survival) regression analysis of single granule exocytosis monitored with TIRF microscopy, a direct connection between location and rate of exocytosis can be obtained at the local, single-granule level. To get insight into whole-cell secretion, simplifications of the full spatiotemporal dynamics have shown to be highly helpful. Here, we provide an overview of recent approaches and results for quantitative analysis of Ca2+ regulated exocytosis of hormone-containing granules.
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Interpretação Estatística de Dados , Células Endócrinas/fisiologia , Exocitose/fisiologia , Animais , Humanos , Modelos TeóricosRESUMO
The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is frequently used as a measure of accuracy of continuous markers in diagnostic tests. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) is arguably the most widely used summary index for the ROC curve. Although the small sample size scenario is common in medical tests, a comprehensive study of small sample size properties of various methods for the construction of the confidence/credible interval (CI) for the AUC has been by and large missing in the literature. In this paper, we describe and compare 29 non-parametric and parametric methods for the construction of the CI for the AUC when the number of available observations is small. The methods considered include not only those that have been widely adopted, but also those that have been less frequently mentioned or, to our knowledge, never applied to the AUC context. To compare different methods, we carried out a simulation study with data generated from binormal models with equal and unequal variances and from exponential models with various parameters and with equal and unequal small sample sizes. We found that the larger the true AUC value and the smaller the sample size, the larger the discrepancy among the results of different approaches. When the model is correctly specified, the parametric approaches tend to outperform the non-parametric ones. Moreover, in the non-parametric domain, we found that a method based on the Mann-Whitney statistic is in general superior to the others. We further elucidate potential issues and provide possible solutions to along with general guidance on the CI construction for the AUC when the sample size is small. Finally, we illustrate the utility of different methods through real life examples.
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Bioestatística/métodos , Testes Diagnósticos de Rotina/estatística & dados numéricos , Animais , Área Sob a Curva , Biomarcadores/metabolismo , Neoplasias Encefálicas/diagnóstico por imagem , Simulação por Computador , Intervalos de Confiança , Glioma/diagnóstico por imagem , Humanos , Bloqueio Interatrial , Rim/lesões , Rim/metabolismo , Funções Verossimilhança , Cadeias de Markov , Modelos Estatísticos , Método de Monte Carlo , Curva ROC , Tamanho da Amostra , Estatísticas não ParamétricasRESUMO
Hormones and neurotransmitters are released when secretory granules or synaptic vesicles fuse with the cell membrane, a process denoted exocytosis. Modern imaging techniques, in particular total internal reflection fluorescence (TIRF) microscopy, allow the investigator to monitor secretory granules at the plasma membrane before and when they undergo exocytosis. However, rigorous statistical approaches for temporal analysis of such exocytosis data are still lacking. We propose here that statistical methods from time-to-event (also known as survival) analysis are well suited for the problem. These methods are typically used in clinical settings when individuals are followed over time to the occurrence of an event such as death, remission or conception. We model the rate of exocytosis in response to pulses of stimuli in insulin-secreting pancreatic ß-cell from healthy and diabetic human donors using piecewise-constant hazard modeling. To study heterogeneity in the granule population we exploit frailty modeling, which describe unobserved differences in the propensity to exocytosis. In particular, we insert a discrete frailty in our statistical model to account for the higher rate of exocytosis in an immediately releasable pool (IRP) of insulin-containing granules. Estimates of parameters are obtained from maximum-likelihood methods. Since granules within the same cell are correlated, i.e., the data are clustered, a modified likelihood function is used for log-likelihood ratio tests in order to perform valid inference. Our approach allows us for example to estimate the size of the IRP in the cells, and we find that the IRP is deficient in diabetic cells. This novel application of time-to-event analysis and frailty modeling should be useful also for the study of other well-defined temporal events at the cellular level.
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Diabetes Mellitus/metabolismo , Exocitose , Células Secretoras de Insulina/metabolismo , Insulina/metabolismo , Modelos Estatísticos , Imagem Molecular , Vesículas Secretórias/metabolismo , Algoritmos , Transporte Biológico , Humanos , Secreção de Insulina , Microscopia de Fluorescência , Imagem Molecular/métodosRESUMO
In studies that involve censored time-to-event data, stratification is frequently encountered due to different reasons, such as stratified sampling or model adjustment due to violation of model assumptions. Often, the main interest is not in the clustering variables, and the cluster-related parameters are treated as nuisance. When inference is about a parameter of interest in presence of many nuisance parameters, standard likelihood methods often perform very poorly and may lead to severe bias. This problem is particularly evident in models for clustered data with cluster-specific nuisance parameters, when the number of clusters is relatively high with respect to the within-cluster size. However, it is still unclear how the presence of censoring would affect this issue. We consider clustered failure time data with independent censoring, and propose frequentist inference based on an integrated likelihood. We then apply the proposed approach to a stratified Weibull model. Simulation studies show that appropriately defined integrated likelihoods provide very accurate inferential results in all circumstances, such as for highly clustered data or heavy censoring, even in extreme settings where standard likelihood procedures lead to strongly misleading results. We show that the proposed method performs generally as well as the frailty model, but it is superior when the frailty distribution is seriously misspecified. An application, which concerns treatments for a frequent disease in late-stage HIV-infected people, illustrates the proposed inferential method in Weibull regression models, and compares different inferential conclusions from alternative methods.
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Funções Verossimilhança , Modelos Estatísticos , Estatística como Assunto , Análise por Conglomerados , Infecções por HIV , Humanos , Análise de SobrevidaRESUMO
Prediction of cumulative incidences is often a primary goal in clinical studies with several endpoints. We compare predictions among competing risks models with time-dependent covariates. For a series of landmark time points, we study the predictive accuracy of a multi-state regression model, where the time-dependent covariate represents an intermediate state, and two alternative landmark approaches. At each landmark time point, the prediction performance is measured as the t-year expected Brier score where pseudovalues are constructed in order to deal with right-censored event times. We apply the methods to data from a bone marrow transplant study where graft versus host disease is considered a time-dependent covariate for predicting relapse and death in remission.
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Modelos Estatísticos , Risco , Transplante de Medula Óssea/efeitos adversos , Doença Enxerto-Hospedeiro/etiologia , Humanos , Recidiva Local de Neoplasia/etiologia , Leucemia-Linfoma Linfoblástico de Células Precursoras/terapia , Valor Preditivo dos TestesRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Concerns have emerged regarding a higher risk of stent thrombosis after drug-eluting stent (DES) implantation, especially in the setting of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Our objective was to perform a meta-analysis using individual patient data to evaluate the long-term safety and effectiveness of DES compared with bare-metal stents (BMS) in patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention for STEMI. DATA SOURCES: Formal searches of electronic databases (MEDLINE and CENTRAL) and scientific session presentations from January 2000 to June 2011. STUDY SELECTION: We examined all completed randomized trials of DES for STEMI. DATA EXTRACTION: Individual patient data. DATA SYNTHESIS: Individual patient data were obtained from 11 of 13 trials identified, including a total of 6298 patients (3980 [63.2%] randomized to DES [99% sirolimus-eluting or paclitaxel-eluting stents] and 2318 [36.8%] randomized to BMS). At long-term follow-up (mean [SD], 1201 [440] days), DES implantation significantly reduced the occurrence of target-vessel revascularization (12.7% vs 20.1%; hazard ratio [95% CI], 0.57 [0.50-0.66]; P < .001, P value for heterogeneity, .20), without any significant difference in terms of mortality, reinfarction, and stent thrombosis. However, DES implantation was associated with an increased risk of very late stent thrombosis and reinfarction. CONCLUSIONS: The present pooled patient-level meta-analysis demonstrates that among patients with STEMI undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention, sirolimus-eluting and paclitaxel-eluting stents compared with BMS are associated with a significant reduction in target-vessel revascularization at long-term follow-up. Although there were no differences in cumulative mortality, reinfarction, or stent thrombosis, the incidence of very late reinfarction and stent thrombosis was increased with these DES.