Sensor-based surveillance for digitising real-time COVID-19 tracking in the USA (DETECT): a multivariable, population-based, modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Traditional viral illness surveillance relies on in-person clinical or laboratory data, paper-based data collection, and outdated technology for data transfer and aggregation. We aimed to assess whether continuous sensor data can provide an early warning signal for COVID-19 activity as individual physiological and behavioural changes might precede symptom onset, care seeking, and diagnostic testing. METHODS: This multivariable, population-based, modelling study recruited adult (aged ≥18 years) participants living in the USA who had a smartwatch or fitness tracker on any device that connected to Apple HealthKit or Google Fit and had joined the DETECT study by downloading the MyDataHelps app. In the model development cohort, we included people who had participated in DETECT between April 1, 2020, and Jan 14, 2022. In the validation cohort, we included individuals who had participated between Jan 15 and Feb 15, 2022. When a participant joins DETECT, they fill out an intake survey of demographic information, including their ZIP code (postal code), and surveys on symptoms, symptom onset, and viral illness test dates and results, if they become unwell. When a participant connects their device, historical sensor data are collected, if available. Sensor data continue to be collected unless a participant withdraws from the study. Using sensor data, we collected each participant's daily resting heart rate and step count during the entire study period and identified anomalous sensor days, in which resting heart rate was higher than, and step count was lower than, a specified threshold calculated for each individual by use of their baseline data. The proportion of users with anomalous data each day was used to create a 7-day moving average. For the main cohort, a negative binomial model predicting 7-day moving averages for COVID-19 case counts, as reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in real time, 6 days in the future, and 12 days in the future in the USA and California was fitted with CDC-reported data from 3 days before alone (H0) or in combination with anomalous sensor data (H1). We compared the predictions with Pearson correlation. We then validated the model in the validation cohort. FINDINGS: Between April 1, 2020, and Jan 14, 2022, 35 842 participants enrolled in DETECT, of whom 4006 in California and 28 527 in the USA were included in our main cohort. The H1 model significantly outperformed the H0 model in predicting the 7-day moving average COVID-19 case counts in California and the USA. For example, Pearson correlation coefficients for predictions 12 days in the future increased by 32·9% in California (from 0·70 [95% CI 0·65-0·73] to 0·93 [0·92-0·94]) and by 12·2% (from 0·82 [0·79-0·84] to 0·92 [0·91-0·93]) in the USA from the H0 model to the H1 model. Our validation model also showed significant correlations for predictions in real time, 6 days in the future, and 12 days in the future. INTERPRETATION: Our study showed that passively collected sensor data from consenting participants can provide real-time disease tracking and forecasting. With a growing population of wearable technology users, these sensor data could be integrated into viral surveillance programmes. FUNDING: The National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences of the US National Institutes of Health, The Rockefeller Foundation, and Amazon Web Services.

Precision medicine screening using whole-genome sequencing and advanced imaging to identify disease risk in adults.

Reducing premature mortality associated with age-related chronic diseases, such as cancer and cardiovascular disease, is an urgent priority. We report early results using genomics in combination with advanced imaging and other clinical testing to proactively screen for age-related chronic disease risk among adults. We enrolled active, symptom-free adults in a study of screening for age-related chronic diseases associated with premature mortality. In addition to personal and family medical history and other clinical testing, we obtained whole-genome sequencing (WGS), noncontrast whole-body MRI, dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), global metabolomics, a new blood test for prediabetes (Quantose IR), echocardiography (ECHO), ECG, and cardiac rhythm monitoring to identify age-related chronic disease risks. Precision medicine screening using WGS and advanced imaging along with other testing among active, symptom-free adults identified a broad set of complementary age-related chronic disease risks associated with premature mortality and strengthened WGS variant interpretation. This and other similarly designed screening approaches anchored by WGS and advanced imaging may have the potential to extend healthy life among active adults through improved prevention and early detection of age-related chronic diseases (and their risk factors) associated with premature mortality.

Phase I study of urate oxidase in the reduction of acute graft-versus-host disease after myeloablative allogeneic stem cell transplantation.

Graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) is a donor T cell driven response against host tissue that can complicate allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). During acute GVHD, endogenous adjuvants such as uric acid are released by damaged host tissue, activating alloreactive donor T cells. A phase I study was conducted at the Massachusetts General Hospital between 2007 and 2010 to test the hypothesis that reduction of uric acid levels during allogeneic HSCT can modulate the development of acute GVHD. Twenty-one patients with hematologic malignancies in complete remission undergoing myeloablative peripheral blood HSCT received recombinant urate oxidase at .20 mg/kg for 5 consecutive days during conditioning. Results were compared with all patients who underwent allogeneic HSCT at our institution during the same time period who met the same inclusion and exclusion criteria but were not enrolled in the study. The only major adverse event was a case of hemolytic anemia in a patient who had glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency. Primary outcome was the cumulative incidence of grades II to IV acute GVHD, which was significantly decreased in the treatment group in the intention-to-treat analysis (57% [12/21] versus 24% [5/21], P = .036) and in the per-protocol analysis (P = .017). Patients who developed acute GVHD had a higher level of serum uric acid during the pretransplantation period compared with those who did not (P < .001). There was no difference in disease-free or overall survival. Our study suggests that urate oxidase can be safely administered during myeloablative conditioning and may reduce the incidence of acute GVHD.

Outcomes in patients age 70 or older undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation for hematologic malignancies.

Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) can achieve durable remissions in a number of patients with advanced hematologic malignancies. Little is known about the safety of HSCT in patients age 70 or older. Consecutive patients (n = 54) age 70 or older underwent HSCT between 2007 and 2012. Diseases included acute myelogenous leukemia (n = 25), myelodysplastic syndrome (n = 12), chronic lymphocytic leukemia (n = 5), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (n = 4), acute lymphoblastic leukemia (n = 3), myeloproliferative neoplasm (n = 4), and chronic myelogenous leukemia (n = 1). Median follow-up for survivors was 21 months. All patients received reduced-intensity conditioning regimens, primarily busulfan/fludarabine. All patients received unmanipulated peripheral blood stem cell grafts: 44 from 8/8 matched unrelated donors, 8 from matched related donors, and 2 from 7/8 matched unrelated donors. Graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis was calcineurin inhibitor-based in all patients. The median age at transplantation was 71 years (range, 70 to 76); the median HCT comorbidity index score was 1 (range, 0 to 5). Two patients died before hematopoietic recovery (1 with graft failure and 1 with disease progression), and 1 patient relapsed before hematopoietic recovery; otherwise, all engrafted with median donor chimerism of 94% at 1 month. Cumulative incidence of grades II to IV acute GVHD was 13% and of grades III to IV acute GVHD, 9.3%. At 2 years, the cumulative incidence of chronic GVHD was 36%, progression-free survival was 39%, overall survival was 39%, and relapse was 56%. Nonrelapse mortality was 3.7% at day +100 and 5.6% at 2 years. We conclude that allogeneic HSCT is a safe and effective option for carefully selected patients age 70 or older.

Risk factors for invasive fungal disease after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation: a single center experience.

Invasive fungal disease (IFD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HCT). We performed a retrospective review of 271 adults with a hematologic malignancy undergoing allogeneic HCT to determine the incidence of and risk factors for IFD and to examine the impact of IFD on nonrelapse mortality and overall survival. We defined IFD using standard criteria and selected proven and probable cases for analysis. Diagnoses in the study group included acute leukemia (42%), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (24%), myelodysplastic syndrome (15%), chronic lymphocytic leukemia (5%), and other hematologic disorders (14%). Conditioning included reduced-intensity (64%) and myeloablative (36%) regimens. Donor sources were HLA-matched sibling (60%), matched unrelated (20%), haploidentical (12%), and cord blood (8%). A total of 51 episodes of IFD were observed in 42 subjects (15%). Aspergillus spp (47%) was the most frequent causative organism, followed by Candida spp (43%). The majority of IFD cases (67%) were reported after day +100 post-HCT. In multivariate analysis, haploidentical donor transplantation (hazard ratio [HR], 3.82; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.49-9.77; P = .005) and grade II-IV acute graft-versus-host disease (HR, 2.55; 95% CI, 1.07-6.10; P = .03) were risk factors for the development of IFD. Conversely, higher infused CD34(+) cell dose was associated with a lower risk of IFD (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.68-0.94; P = .006, per 1 × 10(6) cells/kg increase in CD34(+) cell infusion). IFD-related mortality was 33.3%. Nonrelapse mortality was significantly higher in patients who developed IFD compared with those without IFD (P < .001, log-rank test). Patients with IFD had lower overall survival (5.8 months versus 76.1 months; P < .001, log-rank test). Further studies exploring strategies to increase the infused cell dose and determine adequate prophylaxis, especially against aspergillus, beyond day +100 are needed.

Busulfan dose intensity and outcomes in reduced-intensity allogeneic peripheral blood stem cell transplantation for myelodysplastic syndrome or acute myeloid leukemia.

Comparisons of myeloablative conditioning versus reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC) have demonstrated a tradeoff between relapse and toxicity. Dose intensity across RIC regimens vary and may affect treatment outcomes. In this retrospective analysis, we investigated the effect of i.v. busulfan dosing (total dose 3.2 mg/kg versus 6.4 mg/kg) in RIC regimens that combined fludarabine and busulfan on outcomes in patients who were undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) for myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) or acute myeloid leukemia (AML). A total of 217 consecutive patients with MDS or AML underwent first busulfan and fludarabine RIC peripheral blood stem cell transplantation from well-matched related or unrelated donors at our institutions between 2004 and 2009. Of the 217 patients, 135 patients received Bu1 (3.2 mg/kg of busulfan) and 82 patients received Bu2 (6.4 mg/kg of busulfan), both with daily fludarabine (30 mg/m(2)/day for 4 days). The choice of RIC regimen was based on temporal institutional standard, enrollment on protocols, and physician choice. Patients had similar characteristics with a few notable differences: Patients who received Bu1 were younger (median age 61 versus 64 years, P < . 001), received more single-antigen mismatched unrelated grafts (14.1% versus 1.2%, P < . 001), received more sirolimus-based graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis regimens (63% versus 45%, P < .0001), received less antithymocyte globulin for GVHD prophylaxis (0% versus 22%, P < .001), and had less enrollment on a clinical trial that used prophylactic rituximab for the prevention of chronic GVHD (2.2% versus 11.0%, P = .011). Clinical disease status was similar between the groups. Median follow-up for survivors was 4.4 years for Bu1 and 3.2 years for Bu2. Because of the differences in characteristics, the 2 groups were compared with the adjustment of a propensity score that predicted Bu2 to account for measured differences. The day +200 cumulative incidence rates of grades II to IV acute GVHD (Bu1, 17%, versus Bu2, 8.5%; hazard ratio [HR], .56; 95% confidence interval [CI], .22 to 1.41; P = .22) or grades III to IV acute GVHD (Bu1, 6.7%, versus Bu2, 4.9%) were not different. The 2-year cumulative incidence of chronic GVHD was not significantly different between Bu1 and Bu2 (41.5% versus 28%, respectively; HR, .70; CI, .42 to 1.17; P = .09). Two-year nonrelapse mortality rates were similar for Bu1 and Bu2 (8.9% versus 9.8%, respectively; HR, .80; CI, .29 to 2.21; P = .67). Two-year progression-free survival and overall survival were also similar between Bu1 and Bu2 (progression-free survival: 40.6% versus 39.3%, respectively; HR, .82; CI, .57 to 1.30; P = .33; and overall survival: 47.4% versus 48.8%, respectively; HR, .96; CI, .64 to 1.44; P = .85). Subset analysis defined by clinical disease and cytogenetic risk with the propensity risk score applied suggest that in patients with high clinical disease risk and nonadverse cytogenetics, the higher dose busulfan RIC regimen may be of marginal benefit (2-year progression-free survival: HR, .54; CI, .29 to 1.03; P = .062). For the majority of patients with MDS or AML undergoing busulfan and fludarabine RIC peripheral blood stem cell transplantation, however, the dose of busulfan (3.2 mg/kg versus 6.4 mg/kg) is not associated with significant differences in overall outcomes.

Prognostic factors for patients with diffuse large B cell lymphoma and transformed indolent lymphoma undergoing autologous stem cell transplantation in the positron emission tomography era.

In the positron emission tomography (PET) era, traditional prognostic factors may not apply for patients with relapsed/refractory (R/R) diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL) undergoing autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT). Moreover, little is known about prognostic factors in patients transplanted for transformed indolent lymphoma (TIL). We conducted a retrospective study of 143 patients with R/R DLBCL and TIL who were transplanted in the last decade and had a post-salvage PET scan. We examined prognostic factors in both groups, and constructed a prognostic score for DLBCL patients. For patients with DLBCL, post-salvage PET response was an important prognostic factor. Advanced age and symptomatic relapse were also significantly associated with outcome. A simple score could stratify patients into three risk groups with 4-year post-ASCT overall survival of 84%, 59%, and 10%, and 4-year progression-free survival of 67%, 41% and 0% (P<0.0001 for both). However, none of those factors (including PET response to salvage) appeared relevant for patients with TIL, despite their comparable overall outcome. Our prognostic score for DLBCL patients undergoing ASCT may be useful for prognostication, for stratification in clinical trials, and to motivate the design of new strategies for patients in the high-risk group, who may not derive benefit from standard ASCT.

Expression of CD30 in patients with acute graft-versus-host disease.

Acute GVHD (aGVHD) remains a major source of morbidity after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation. CD30 is a cell-surface protein expressed on certain activated T cells. We analyzed CD30 expression on peripheral blood T-cell subsets and soluble CD30 levels in 26 patients at the time of presentation of aGVHD, before the initiation of treatment, compared with 27 patients after hematopoietic cell transplantation without aGVHD (NONE). Analysis by flow cytometry showed that patients with aGVHD had a greater percentage of CD30 expressing CD8(+) T cells with the difference especially pronounced in the central memory subset (CD8(+)CD45RO(+)CD62L(+)): GVHD median 12.4% (range, 0.8%-33.4%) versus NONE 2.1% (0.7%, 17.5%), P < .001. There were similar levels of CD30 expression in naive T cells, CD4(+) T cells, and regulatory (CD4(+)CD127(low)CD25(+)) T cells. Plasma levels of soluble CD30 were significantly greater in patients with GVHD: median 61.7 ng/mL (range, 9.8-357.1 ng/mL) versus 17.4 (range, 3.7-142.4 ng/mL) in NONE (P < .001). Immunohistochemical analysis of affected intestinal tissue showed many CD30(+) infiltrating lymphocytes present. These results suggest that CD30 expression on CD8(+) T-cell subsets or plasma levels of soluble CD30 may be a potential biomarker for aGVHD. CD30 may also represent a target for novel therapeutic approaches for aGVHD.