Evidence-based target setting informs blue carbon strategies for nationally determined contributions.

The magnitude and pace of global climate change demand ambitious and effective implementation of nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Nature-based solutions present an efficient approach to achieving mitigation, adaptation and resilience goals. Yet few nations have quantified the diverse benefits of nature-based solutions to evaluate and select ecosystem targets for their NDCs. Here we report on Belize's pursuit of innovative, evidence-based target setting by accounting for multiple benefits of blue carbon strategies. Through quantification of carbon storage and sequestration and optimization of co-benefits, we explore time-bound targets and prioritize locations for mangrove protection and restoration. We find increases in carbon benefits with larger mangrove investments, while fisheries, tourism and coastal risk-reduction co-benefits grow initially and then plateau. We identify locations, currently lacking protected status, where prioritizing blue carbon strategies would provide the greatest delivery of co-benefits to communities. These findings informed Belize's updated NDCs to include an additional 12,000 ha of mangrove protection and 4,000 ha of mangrove restoration, respectively, by 2030. Our study serves as an example for the more than 150 other countries that have the opportunity to enhance greenhouse gas sequestration and climate adaptation by incorporating blue carbon strategies that provide multiple societal benefits into their NDCs.

Belize Blue Carbon: Establishing a national carbon stock estimate for mangrove ecosystems.

Mangrove ecosystems are among the most economically and ecologically valuable marine environments in the world. Mangroves are effective at long-term carbon storage within their sediments and are estimated to hold 12 billion metric tons of carbon worldwide. These ecosystems are therefore vitally important for carbon sequestration and, by extension, climate change mitigation. As part of the Paris Agreement, participating countries agree to provide plans to reduce their carbon emissions, or nationally determined contributions (NDCs). However, despite mangroves being recognized as important nature-based solutions, many countries still lack national data on carbon stocks and must use global or regional averages, which may not be sufficiently accurate. Here, we present the national carbon stock estimate of mangrove ecosystems for the NDC of Belize, acquired through a collaborative approach involving government agencies and NGOs. We conducted a comprehensive sampling of mangroves across the country, including a range of mangrove ecotypes. The mean total ecosystem carbon stock (TECS) for the nation was 444.1 ± 21.0 Mg C ha-1, with 74.4 ± 6.2 Mg C ha-1 in biomass stocks, and 369.7 ± 17.7 Mg C ha-1 in sediment stocks. Combining these data with a recent mapping effort, we provide the first national comprehensive mangrove carbon stock estimate of 25.7 Tg C. The national mean from this study varies from previous global analyses, which can under- or overestimate TECS by as much as 0.6 Tg C and 16.5 Tg C, respectively, depending on the study. These data supported the NDC update of Belize, and can be used to inform the country's mangrove protection and restoration commitments. The collaborative approach of this work should serve as a blueprint for other countries seeking to conserve natural blue carbon sinks as a strategy to achieve their climate targets.

Mangrove reforestation provides greater blue carbon benefit than afforestation for mitigating global climate change.

Significant efforts have been invested to restore mangrove forests worldwide through reforestation and afforestation. However, blue carbon benefit has not been compared between these two silvicultural pathways at the global scale. Here, we integrated results from direct field measurements of over 370 restoration sites around the world to show that mangrove reforestation (reestablishing mangroves where they previously colonized) had a greater carbon storage potential per hectare than afforestation (establishing mangroves where not previously mangrove). Greater carbon accumulation was mainly attributed to favorable intertidal positioning, higher nitrogen availability, and lower salinity at most reforestation sites. Reforestation of all physically feasible areas in the deforested mangrove regions of the world could promote the uptake of 671.5-688.8 Tg CO2-eq globally over a 40-year period, 60% more than afforesting the same global area on tidal flats (more marginal sites). Along with avoiding conflicts of habitat conversion, mangrove reforestation should be given priority when designing nature-based solutions for mitigating global climate change.

Assessment of serum calcium in -patients referred for suspected lung cancer: A quality -improvement project to enhance patient safety in clinical practice.

BACKGROUND: Hypercalcaemia is a serious complication of lung cancer. A quality improvement project (QIP) was designed based on guidance from the American College of Chest Physician and the European Respiratory Society who recommend measuring serum calcium for patients referred with suspected lung cancer. METHOD: Seventy-two patients were included in the initial data to ascertain the delay between referral to the lung cancer pathway and obtaining serum calcium levels as part of the initial work-up. New data were then collected after each intervention (including presentations at weekly respiratory multidisciplinary team meetings, posters within clinical areas and a hospital trust screensaver) to evaluate the delay. RESULTS: Initially, 11.1% (n=8) did not have serum calcium measured at any point; two of which had lung cancer (including one metastatic malignancy). Of those who had serum calcium measured, there was a median delay of 13 days between first suspicion and obtaining serum calcium. After all the interventions were put in place, patients had a median of 7 days' delay (p=0.001). CONCLUSION: This QIP design was based on continued feedback to improve the care of patients suspected of lung cancer. Although there was a significant reduction in delays post-intervention, increasing awareness in the community is suggested to maintain these improvements.

Author Correction: Accuracy and Precision of Tidal Wetland Soil Carbon Mapping in the Conterminous United States.

A correction to this article has been published and is linked from the HTML and PDF versions of this paper. The error has not been fixed in the paper.

Accuracy and Precision of Tidal Wetland Soil Carbon Mapping in the Conterminous United States.

Tidal wetlands produce long-term soil organic carbon (C) stocks. Thus for carbon accounting purposes, we need accurate and precise information on the magnitude and spatial distribution of those stocks. We assembled and analyzed an unprecedented soil core dataset, and tested three strategies for mapping carbon stocks: applying the average value from the synthesis to mapped tidal wetlands, applying models fit using empirical data and applied using soil, vegetation and salinity maps, and relying on independently generated soil carbon maps. Soil carbon stocks were far lower on average and varied less spatially and with depth than stocks calculated from available soils maps. Further, variation in carbon density was not well-predicted based on climate, salinity, vegetation, or soil classes. Instead, the assembled dataset showed that carbon density across the conterminous united states (CONUS) was normally distributed, with a predictable range of observations. We identified the simplest strategy, applying mean carbon density (27.0 kg C m-3), as the best performing strategy, and conservatively estimated that the top meter of CONUS tidal wetland soil contains 0.72 petagrams C. This strategy could provide standardization in CONUS tidal carbon accounting until such a time as modeling and mapping advancements can quantitatively improve accuracy and precision.

Coastal wetland management as a contribution to the US National Greenhouse Gas Inventory.

The IPCC 2013 Wetlands Supplement provided new guidance for countries on inclusion of wetlands in their National GHG Inventories. The United States has responded by including managed coastal wetlands for the first time in its 2017 GHG Inventory report along with an updated time series in the most recent 2018 submission and plans to update the time series on an annual basis as part of its yearly submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The United States followed IPCC Good Practice Guidance when reporting sources and sinks associated with managed coastal wetlands. Here we show that intact vegetated coastal wetlands are a net sink for GHGs. Despite robust regulation that has protected substantial stocks of carbon, the United States continues to lose coastal wetlands to development and the largest loss of wetlands to open water occurs around the Mississippi Delta due mostly to upstream changes in hydrology and sediment delivery, and oil and gas extraction. These processes create GHG emissions. By applying comprehensive Inventory reporting, scientists in the United States have identified opportunities for reducing GHG emissions through restoration of coastal wetlands that also provide many important societal co-benefits.

Restoring tides to reduce methane emissions in impounded wetlands: A new and potent Blue Carbon climate change intervention.

Coastal wetlands are sites of rapid carbon (C) sequestration and contain large soil C stocks. Thus, there is increasing interest in those ecosystems as sites for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission offset projects (sometimes referred to as "Blue Carbon"), through preservation of existing C stocks or creation of new wetlands to increase future sequestration. Here we show that in the globally-widespread occurrence of diked, impounded, drained and tidally-restricted salt marshes, substantial methane (CH4) and CO2 emission reductions can be achieved through restoration of disconnected saline tidal flows. Modeled climatic forcing indicates that tidal restoration to reduce emissions has a much greater impact per unit area than wetland creation or conservation to enhance sequestration. Given that GHG emissions in tidally-restricted, degraded wetlands are caused by human activity, they are anthropogenic emissions, and reducing them will have an effect on climate that is equivalent to reduced emission of an equal quantity of fossil fuel GHG. Thus, as a landuse-based climate change intervention, reducing CH4 emissions is an entirely distinct concept from biological C sequestration projects to enhance C storage in forest or wetland biomass or soil, and will not suffer from the non-permanence risk that stored C will be returned to the atmosphere.

Limits on carbon sequestration in arid blue carbon ecosystems.

Coastal ecosystems produce and sequester significant amounts of carbon ("blue carbon"), which has been well documented in humid and semi-humid regions of temperate and tropical climates but less so in arid regions where mangroves, marshes, and seagrasses exist near the limit of their tolerance for extreme temperature and salinity. To better understand these unique systems, we measured whole-ecosystem carbon stocks in 58 sites across the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in natural and planted mangroves, salt marshes, seagrass beds, microbial mats, and coastal sabkha (inter- and supratidal unvegetated salt flats). Natural mangroves held significantly more carbon in above- and belowground biomass than other vegetated ecosystems. Planted mangrove carbon stocks increased with age, but there were large differences for sites of similar age. Soil carbon varied widely across sites (2-367 Mg C/ha), with ecosystem averages that ranged from 49 to 156 Mg C/ha. For the first time, microbial mats were documented to contain soil carbon pools comparable to vascular plant-dominated ecosystems, and could arguably be recognized as a unique blue carbon ecosystem. Total ecosystem carbon stocks ranged widely from 2 to 515 Mg C/ha (seagrass bed and mangrove, respectively). Seagrass beds had the lowest carbon stock per unit area, but the largest stock per total area due to their large spatial coverage. Compared to similar ecosystems globally, mangroves and marshes in the UAE have lower plant and soil carbon stocks; however, the difference in soil stocks is far larger than with plant stocks. This incongruent difference between stocks is likely due to poor carbon preservation under conditions of weakly reduced soils (200-350 mV), coarse-grained sediments, and active shoreline migration. This work represents the first attempt to produce a country-wide coastal ecosystem carbon accounting using a uniform sampling protocol, and was motivated by specific policy goals identified by the Abu Dhabi Global Environmental Data Initiative. These carbon stock data supported two objectives: to quantify carbon stocks and infer sequestration capacity in arid blue carbon ecosystems, and to explore the potential to incorporate blue carbon science into national reporting and planning documents.

Estimating global "blue carbon" emissions from conversion and degradation of vegetated coastal ecosystems.

Recent attention has focused on the high rates of annual carbon sequestration in vegetated coastal ecosystems--marshes, mangroves, and seagrasses--that may be lost with habitat destruction ('conversion'). Relatively unappreciated, however, is that conversion of these coastal ecosystems also impacts very large pools of previously-sequestered carbon. Residing mostly in sediments, this 'blue carbon' can be released to the atmosphere when these ecosystems are converted or degraded. Here we provide the first global estimates of this impact and evaluate its economic implications. Combining the best available data on global area, land-use conversion rates, and near-surface carbon stocks in each of the three ecosystems, using an uncertainty-propagation approach, we estimate that 0.15-1.02 Pg (billion tons) of carbon dioxide are being released annually, several times higher than previous estimates that account only for lost sequestration. These emissions are equivalent to 3-19% of those from deforestation globally, and result in economic damages of $US 6-42 billion annually. The largest sources of uncertainty in these estimates stems from limited certitude in global area and rates of land-use conversion, but research is also needed on the fates of ecosystem carbon upon conversion. Currently, carbon emissions from the conversion of vegetated coastal ecosystems are not included in emissions accounting or carbon market protocols, but this analysis suggests they may be disproportionally important to both. Although the relevant science supporting these initial estimates will need to be refined in coming years, it is clear that policies encouraging the sustainable management of coastal ecosystems could significantly reduce carbon emissions from the land-use sector, in addition to sustaining the well-recognized ecosystem services of coastal habitats.

Evaluating tidal marsh sustainability in the face of sea-level rise: a hybrid modeling approach applied to San Francisco Bay.

BACKGROUND: Tidal marshes will be threatened by increasing rates of sea-level rise (SLR) over the next century. Managers seek guidance on whether existing and restored marshes will be resilient under a range of potential future conditions, and on prioritizing marsh restoration and conservation activities. METHODOLOGY: Building upon established models, we developed a hybrid approach that involves a mechanistic treatment of marsh accretion dynamics and incorporates spatial variation at a scale relevant for conservation and restoration decision-making. We applied this model to San Francisco Bay, using best-available elevation data and estimates of sediment supply and organic matter accumulation developed for 15 Bay subregions. Accretion models were run over 100 years for 70 combinations of starting elevation, mineral sediment, organic matter, and SLR assumptions. Results were applied spatially to evaluate eight Bay-wide climate change scenarios. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Model results indicated that under a high rate of SLR (1.65 m/century), short-term restoration of diked subtidal baylands to mid marsh elevations (-0.2 m MHHW) could be achieved over the next century with sediment concentrations greater than 200 mg/L. However, suspended sediment concentrations greater than 300 mg/L would be required for 100-year mid marsh sustainability (i.e., no elevation loss). Organic matter accumulation had minimal impacts on this threshold. Bay-wide projections of marsh habitat area varied substantially, depending primarily on SLR and sediment assumptions. Across all scenarios, however, the model projected a shift in the mix of intertidal habitats, with a loss of high marsh and gains in low marsh and mudflats. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Results suggest a bleak prognosis for long-term natural tidal marsh sustainability under a high-SLR scenario. To minimize marsh loss, we recommend conserving adjacent uplands for marsh migration, redistributing dredged sediment to raise elevations, and concentrating restoration efforts in sediment-rich areas. To assist land managers, we developed a web-based decision support tool (www.prbo.org/sfbayslr).