Predicting posthospitalization falls in Brazilian older adults: External validation of the Carpenter instrument.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to explore and externally validate the Carpenter instrument's efficacy in predicting postdischarge fall risk among older adults admitted to the emergency department (ED) for reasons other than falls or related injuries. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted on 779 patients aged ≥ 65 years from a tertiary hospital in São Paulo, Brazil, who were monitored for up to 6 months post-ED hospitalization. The Carpenter instrument, which evaluates the four risk factors nonhealing foot sores, self-reported depression, inability to self-clip toenails, and prior falls, was utilized to assess fall risk. Follow-up by telephone occurred at 30, 90, and 180 days to identify falls and mortality. Fine-Gray models estimated the predictive power of Carpenter instrument for future falls, considering death as a competing event and sociodemographic factors, frail status, and clinical measures as confounders. RESULTS: Among 779 patients, 68 (9%) experienced a fall within 180 days post-ED admission, and 88 (11%) died. The majority were male (54%), with a mean age of 79 years. Upon utilizing the Carpenter score, those with a higher fall risk (≥2 points) displayed more comorbidities, greater frailty, and increased clinical severity at baseline. Regression analyses showed that every additional point on the Carpenter score increased the hazard of falls by 73%. Two primary contributors to its predictive potential were identified: a history of falls in the preceding year and an inability to self-clip toenails. However, the instrument's discriminative accuracy was suboptimal, with an area under the curve of 0.62. CONCLUSIONS: While the Carpenter instrument associated with a higher 6-month postadmission fall risk among older adults post-ED visit, its accuracy for individual patient decision making was limited. Given the significant impact of falls on health outcomes and health care costs, refining risk assessment tools remains essential. Future research should focus on enhancing these assessments and devising targeted proactive strategies.

Predicting Hospital Admission and Prolonged Length of Stay in Older Adults in the Emergency Department: The PRO-AGE Scoring System.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: We developed prediction models for hospital admission and prolonged length of stay in older adults admitted from the emergency department (ED). METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of patients aged 70 years or older who visited a geriatric ED in Brazil (N=5,025 visits). We randomly allocated participants to derivation and validation samples in a 2:1 ratio. We then selected 21 variables based on their clinical relevance and generated models to predict the following outcomes: hospital admission and prolonged length of stay, defined as the upper tertile of hospital stay. We used backward stepwise logistic regressions to select our final predictors and developed risk scoring systems based on the relative values of their ß coefficients. RESULTS: Overall, 57% of the participants were women, 31% were hospitalized, and 1% died in the hospital. The upper tertile of hospital stay was greater than 7 days. Hospital admission was best predicted by a model including male sex, aged 90 years or older, hospitalization in the previous 6 months, weight loss greater than or equal to 5% in the previous year, acute mental alteration, and acute functional decline. The prediction of prolonged length of stay retained the same variables, except male sex, which was substituted for fatigue. The final scoring system reached areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.74 for hospital admission and 0.79 for prolonged length of stay, and their accuracies were confirmed in the validation models. CONCLUSION: The PRO-AGE scoring system predicted hospital admission and prolonged length of stay in older adults with good accuracy, using a simple approach and only 7 easily obtained clinical variables.

Vascular risk as a predictor of cognitive decline in a cohort of elderly patients with mild to moderate dementia.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The purpose of our study was to evaluate vascular risk factors and other clinical variables as predictors of cognitive and functional decline in elderly patients with mild to moderate dementia. METHODS: The clinical characteristics of 82 elderly patients (mean age 79.0 ± 5.9 years; 67.1% females) with mild to moderate dementia were obtained at baseline, including years of education, Framingham Coronary Heart Disease Risk score, Hachinski Ischemic Score (HIS), Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR), Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score, Functional Activities Questionnaire (FAQ) score, Burden Interview Scale score, and Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI) score. Changes in MMSE and FAQ scores over time were assessed annually. The association between baseline clinical variables and cognitive and functional decline was investigated during 3 years of follow-up through the use of generalized linear mixed effects models. RESULTS: A trend was found towards steeper cognitive decline in patients with less vascular burden according to the HIS (ß = 0.056, p = 0.09), better cognitive performance according to the CDR score (ß = 0.313, p = 0.06) and worse caregiver burden according to the Burden Interview Scale score (ß = -0.012, p = 0.07) at baseline. CONCLUSION: Further studies with larger samples are necessary to confirm and expand our findings.

Age-related gray matter volume changes in the brain during non-elderly adulthood.

Previous magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies described consistent age-related gray matter (GM) reductions in the fronto-parietal neocortex, insula and cerebellum in elderly subjects, but not as frequently in limbic/paralimbic structures. However, it is unclear whether such features are already present during earlier stages of adulthood, and if age-related GM changes may follow non-linear patterns at such age range. This voxel-based morphometry study investigated the relationship between GM volumes and age specifically during non-elderly life (18-50 years) in 89 healthy individuals (48 males and 41 females). Voxelwise analyses showed significant (p<0.05, corrected) negative correlations in the right prefrontal cortex and left cerebellum, and positive correlations (indicating lack of GM loss) in the medial temporal region, cingulate gyrus, insula and temporal neocortex. Analyses using ROI masks showed that age-related dorsolateral prefrontal volume decrements followed non-linear patterns, and were less prominent in females compared to males at this age range. These findings further support for the notion of a heterogeneous and asynchronous pattern of age-related brain morphometric changes, with region-specific non-linear features.