Identification of Patient Profiles with High Risk of Hospital Re-Admissions for Acute COPD Exacerbations (AECOPD) in France Using a Machine Learning Model.

Purpose: To characterise patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) who are rehospitalised for an acute exacerbation, to estimate the cost of these hospitalisations, to characterise high risk patient sub groups and to identify factors potentially associated with the risk of rehospitalisation. Patients and Methods: This was a retrospective study using the French National Hospital Discharge Database. All patients aged ≥40 years hospitalised for an acute exacerbation of COPD between 2015 and 2016 were identified and followed for six months. Patients with at least one rehospitalisation for acute exacerbation of COPD constituted the rehospitalisation analysis population. A machine learning model was built to study the factors associated with the risk of rehospitalisation using decision tree analysis. A direct cost analysis was performed from the perspective of national health insurance. Results: A total of 143,006 eligible patients were hospitalised for an acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) in 2015-2016 (mean age: 74 years; 62.1% men). 25,090 (18.8%) were rehospitalised for another exacerbation within six months. In this study, 8.5% of patients died during or immediately following the index hospitalisation and 10.5% died during or immediately after rehospitalisation (p <0.001). The specific cost of these rehospitalisations was € 5304. The overall total cost per patient of all AECOPD-related stays was € 9623, being significantly higher in patients who were rehospitalised (€ 16,275) compared to those who were not (€ 8208). In decision tree analysis, the most important driver of rehospitalisation was hospitalisation in the previous two years (contributing 85% of the information). Conclusion: Rehospitalisations for acute exacerbations of COPD carry a high epidemiological and economic burden. Since hospitalisation for an acute exacerbation is the most important determinant of future rehospitalisations, management of COPD needs to focus on interventions aimed at decreasing the rehospitalisation risk of in order to lower the burden of disease.

Inclusion of Older Patients with Cancer in Clinical Trials: The SAGE Prospective Multicenter Cohort Survey.

BACKGROUND: The primary objective was to evaluate the rates of older patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) who were eligible for a clinical trial, invited to participate, and, ultimately, included. The secondary objective was to assess the reasons for ineligibility, noninvitation, and noninclusion and factors associated. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Sujets AGés dans les Essais Cliniques (SAGE; Older Subjects in Clinical Trials) multicenter prospective cohort was established in seven centers (10 departments of medical oncology, digestive oncology, and digestive surgery) between 2012 and 2016. All patients with CRC aged 65 or older were studied. The endpoints were clinical trial availability, patient's eligibility, invitation, and enrollment in a trial. RESULTS: We included 577 older patients (mean age ± SD: 75.6 ± 7 years; males: 56%; metastasis: 41%). Thirty-seven trials were ongoing (one trial for older patients). Of the 474 patients with at least one available trial for their cancer stage and site, 127 (27%) were eligible; 84 of these 127 (66%) were invited to participate, and 70 of these 84 (83%) were included. In a multivariate analysis, noninvitation was found to be associated with older age (p = .016): adjusted relative risk (95% confidence interval), 0.14 (0.02-0.60) for ≥80 vs. 65-69; 0.54 (0.18-1.04) for 75-79 vs. 65-69; 0.47 (0.17-0.93) for 70-74 vs. 65-69. CONCLUSION: Three-quarters of older patients with CRC were ineligible for a clinical trial. One-third of the eligible patients were not invited to participate in a trial, and 17% of invited patients were not included. Few trials are reserved for older patients. Patients aged 80 or older were significantly less likely to be eligible for a trial and invited to participate. Clinical trial identification number: NCT01754636. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: The results of this study suggest that barriers to participation of older patients in clinical trials are particularly marked at age 80 years or older. Secondly, the results emphasize the need for trials for older patients. Thirdly, there is also a need for more pragmatic "real-world" trials, rather than solely randomized trials performed in idealized settings with strictly selected patients. Large prospective observational cohorts with a precise follow-up of toxicity, functional decline, and quality of life may constitute one way of generating more data on the risk-benefit ratio for cancer treatments in older patients.