Involuntary closures of for-profit care homes in England by the Care Quality Commission.

Adult social care services in England are struggling, and sometimes failing, to supply the quality of care deserved by the most vulnerable people in society. The Care Quality Commission (CQC) is responsible for protecting the recipients of this crucial public service. Their strongest enforcement is the ability to cancel the registration-the legal right to operate-of a health or social care provider. Using novel data from the CQC, we show that the proportion of care home closures due to CQC enforcements, relative to all closures, is increasing. Since 2011, 816 care homes (representing 19 918 registered beds) have been involuntarily closed by the CQC. Our results show that effectively all involuntary closures (804/816) occurred in for-profit care homes. This data emphasises the need for a comprehensive assessment of the impact of for-profit provision on the quality and sustainability of adult social care in England.

Student- and School-Level Factors Associated With Mental Health and Well-Being in Early Adolescence.

OBJECTIVE: Adolescence is a key developmental window that may determine long-term mental health. As schools may influence mental health of students, this study aimed to examine the association of school-level characteristics with students' mental health over time. METHOD: Longitudinal data from a cluster randomized controlled trial comprising 8,376 students (55% female; aged 11-14 years at baseline) across 84 schools in the United Kingdom were analyzed. Data collection started in the academic years 2016/2017 (cohort 1) and 2017/2018 (cohort 2), with follow-up at 1, 1.5, and 2 years. Students' mental health (risk for depression [Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale], social-emotional-behavioral difficulties [Strength and Difficulties Questionnaire]) and well-being (Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-Being Scale) and relationships with student- and school-level characteristics were explored using multilevel regression models. RESULTS: Mental health difficulties and poorer well-being increased over time, particularly in girls. Differences among schools represented a small but statistically significant proportion of variation (95% CI) in students' mental health at each time point: depression, 1.7% (0.9%-2.5%) to 2.5% (1.6%-3.4%); social-emotional-behavioral difficulties, 1.9% (1.1%-2.7%) to 2.8% (2.1%-3.5%); and well-being, 1.8% (0.9%-2.7%) to 2.2% (1.4%-3.0%). Better student-rated school climate analyzed as a time-varying factor at the student and school level was associated with lower risk of depression (regression coefficient [95%CI] student level: -4.25 [-4.48, -4.01]; school level: -4.28 [-5.81, -2.75]), fewer social-emotional-behavioral difficulties (student level: -2.46 [-2.57, -2.35]; school level: -2.36 [-3.08, -1.63]), and higher well-being (student level: 3.88 [3.70, 4.05]; school-level: 4.28 [3.17, 5.38]), which was a stable relationship. CONCLUSION: Student-rated school climate predicted mental health in early adolescence. Policy and system interventions that focus on school climate may promote students' mental health.

Sexual Violence Among Higher Education Students in the United Kingdom: Results from the Oxford Understanding Relationships, Sex, Power, Abuse and Consent Experiences Study.

Sexual violence (SV) experienced by higher education students is a prevalent public health problem. Collecting data on SV through self-report surveys in higher education institutions (HEIs) is essential for estimating the scope of the problem, the first step to adequately resourcing and implementing prevention and response programming and policies. However, in the United Kingdom, data is limited. We used data from the cross-sectional Oxford Understanding Relationships, Sex, Power, Abuse and Consent Experiences survey, administered to all students at a university in the United Kingdom in May 2021 (n = 25,820), to estimate the past year prevalence of SV. We analyzed data from respondents who answered at least one question on SV (n = 1,318) and found that 20.5% of respondents experienced at least one act of attempted or forced sexual touching or rape, and 52.7% of respondents experienced at least one act of sexual harassment (SH). We found that women experienced the highest rates of SV. Attempted forced sexual touching was far more common than forced sexual touching, or rape. Sexist remarks or jokes were the most common act of SH. Most acts of SV took place at the university. These findings reveal that the prevalence of SV in HEIs in the United Kingdom could be far higher than what is experienced in the general population. While this study reflects the context in only one institution, it underlines the need for continued monitoring to develop rigorous, evidence-based, and targeted prevention and response strategies.

Colleges and Crime-Comparing Homicide and Suicide Rates Among College Towns and Their Counterparts.

INTRODUCTION: To investigate differences in homicide and suicide rates across college town status and determine whether college towns were predisposed to changes in rates over time. METHODS: We analyzed county-level homicide and suicide rates (total and by firearm) across college town status using 2015-2019 CDC death certificate data and data from the American Communities Project. RESULTS: Population-level homicide rates were similar across college town status, but younger age groups were at increased risk for firearm homicide and total homicide in college towns. College town status was associated with lower population-level firearm suicide rates, but individuals aged less than 18 y were at increased risk for total and firearm suicide. Finally, college towns were not classified as outliers for changes in either firearm homicide or suicide rates over time. CONCLUSIONS: College towns had similar homicide rates and significantly lower firearm suicide rates than other counties; however, individuals aged less than 18 y were at increased risk for both outcomes. The distinctive demographic, social, economic, and cultural features of college towns may contribute to differing risk profiles among certain age groups, thus may also be amenable to focused prevention efforts.

The Prevalence of Sexual Assault Among Higher Education Students: A Systematic Review With Meta-Analyses.

Sexual assault among higher education students has detrimental impacts on the health and educational outcomes of survivors. This systematic review aims to describe and synthesize the available quantitative evidence on sexual assault prevalence among this population. We searched Medline, EMBASE, Global Health, PsycINFO, Web of Science, ERIC, and CINAHL for studies published in English, French, Italian, and Spanish from database inception to August 2020 (updated May 2022). We screened studies using prespecified inclusion criteria for the population and context (registered higher education students), condition (self-reported sexual assault), and study design (quantitative survey). The Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Checklist was used to assess study quality. Prevalence estimates disaggregated by type of sexual assault, gender identity, and world region were meta-analyzed using a random-effects model and reported following PRISMA guidance. We identified 131 articles, from 21 different countries. The meta-analyzed prevalence of sexual assault was 17.5% for women, 7.8% for men, and 18.1% for transgender and gender diverse people. Four types of sexual assault were identified: rape, attempted rape, forced sexual touching, and coercive sex. Forced sexual touching was the most common act experienced. The African Region had the highest prevalence estimates for women's sexual assault, and the Western Pacific region had the highest prevalence estimates for men's sexual assault. Higher education institutions, especially those outside of the United States, should commit to the implementation of surveys to monitor sexual assault prevalence and dedicate increased resources to supporting student survivors of sexual assault.

Secular trends and social inequalities in child behavioural problems across three Brazilian cohort studies (1993, 2004 and 2015).

AIMS: Previous epidemiological evidence identified a concerning increase in behavioural problems among young children from 1997 to 2008 in Brazil. However, it is unclear whether behavioural problems have continued to increase, if secular changes vary between sociodemographic groups and what might explain changes over time. We aimed to monitor changes in child behavioural problems over a 22-year period from 1997 to 2019, examine changing social inequalities and explore potential explanations for recent changes in behavioural problems between 2008 and 2019. METHODS: The Child Behaviour Checklist was used to compare parent-reported behavioural problems in 4-year-old children across three Brazilian birth cohorts assessed in 1997 (1993 cohort, n = 633), 2008 (2004 cohort, n = 3750) and 2019 (2015 cohort, n = 577). Response rates across all three population-based cohorts were over 90%. Moderation analyses tested if cross-cohort changes differed by social inequalities (demographic and socioeconomic position), while explanatory models explored whether changes in hypothesized risk and protective factors in prenatal development (e.g., smoking during pregnancy) and family life (e.g., maternal depression and harsh parenting) accounted for changes in child behavioural problems from 2008 to 2019. RESULTS: Initial increases in child behavioural problems from 1997 to 2008 were followed by declines in conduct problems (mean change = -2.75; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -3.56, -1.94; P < 0.001), aggression (mean change = -1.84; 95% CI: -2.51, -1.17; P < 0.001) and rule-breaking behaviour (mean change = -0.91; 95% CI: -1.13, -0.69 P < 0.001) from 2008 to 2019. Sex differences in rule-breaking behaviour diminished during this 22-year period, whereas socioeconomic inequalities in behavioural problems emerged in 2008 and then remained relatively stable. Consequently, children from poorer and less educated families had higher behavioural problems, compared to more socially advantaged children, in the two more recent cohorts. Changes in measured risk and protective factors partly explained the reduction in behavioural problems from 2008 to 2019. CONCLUSIONS: Following a rise in child behavioural problems, there was a subsequent reduction in behavioural problems from 2008 to 2019. However, social inequalities increased and remained high. Continued monitoring of behavioural problems by subgroups is critical for closing the gap between socially advantaged and disadvantaged children and achieving health equity for the next generation.

Effects of the Pelotas (Brazil) Peace Pact on violence and crime: a synthetic control analysis.

Background: City-led interventions are increasingly advocated to achieve the UN's Sustainable Development Goal to reduce violence for all. We used a new quantitative evaluation method to examine whether a flagship programme, called the "Pelotas Pact for Peace" (the Pacto), has been effective in reducing violence and crime in the city of Pelotas, Brazil. Methods: We used synthetic control methodology to assess the effects of the Pacto from August 2017 to December 2021, and separately before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Outcomes included monthly rates of homicide and property crime, and yearly rates of assault against women and school drop-out. We constructed synthetic controls (counterfactuals) based on weighted averages from a donor pool of municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul. Weights were identified using pre-intervention outcome trends and confounders (sociodemographics, economics, education, health and development, and drug trafficking). Findings: The Pacto led to an overall 9% reduction in homicide and 7% reduction in robbery in Pelotas. These effects were not uniform across the full post-intervention period as clear effects were only seen during the pandemic period. A 38% reduction in homicide was also specifically associated with the criminal justice strategy of Focussed Deterrence. No significant effects were found for non-violent property crimes, violence against women, and school dropout, irrespective of the post-intervention period. Interpretation: City-level interventions that combine public health and criminal justice approaches could be effective in tackling violence in Brazil. Continued monitoring and evaluation efforts are increasingly needed as cities are proposed as key opportunities for reducing violence for all. Funding: This research was funded by the Wellcome Trust [grant number: 210735_Z_18_Z].

The Leading Causes of Death in Children and Adolescents in Brazil, 2000-2020.

INTRODUCTION: Despite promising reductions in mortality from infectious diseases, premature death is a still major public health problem in Brazil. However, little is known about which diseases and injury mechanisms are the main causes of premature death. This paper aimed to detail the trends in leading causes of death among children and adolescents in Brazil. METHODS: Data were extracted from medical death certificates from the Brazilian Mortality Information System for children and adolescents aged 1-19 years for 2000-2020. The 10 leading causes of death for children and adolescents were defined using primary cause of death codes, grouped by death for diseases and mechanism for injury, according to the ICD-10. All analyses were completed in 2022. RESULTS: From 2000 through 2020, there was a total of 772,729 child and adolescent deaths in Brazil. Despite an overall 34% reduction in child and adolescent mortality from 2000 to 2020, improvements were less pronounced for injury-related deaths than for communicable diseases. Therefore, by 2020, over half of deaths were from injury-related causes. Firearm-related injury was by far the leading cause, accounting for 21% of all deaths. There was a 38% reduction in firearm deaths in the last 4 years against a previously increasing trend, and homicide accounted for over 90% of all firearm deaths because suicide by firearm was rare. CONCLUSIONS: Injury-related deaths among children and adolescents are a growing concern in Brazil, and firearms are the current leading cause of child and adolescent death.

How have firearm laws changed in states with unexpected decreases or increases in firearm homicide, 1990-2019?

Background: Firearm violence is one of the leading preventable causes of death and injury in the United States and is on the rise. While policies regulating access to firearms offer opportunities to prevent firearm-related deaths, an understanding of the holistic impact of changing state firearm policies on firearm homicide rates over the last 30 years is limited. Objectives: To identify US states that showed unexpected decreases and increases in firearm homicide rates and summarise their firearm policy changes in the last three decades. Methods: We analysed changes in firearm homicide rates by US state and county from 1990 to 2019. We triangulated across three estimation approaches to derive state rankings and identify the top and bottom three states which consistently showed unexpected decreases (low outliers) and increases (high outliers) in firearm homicide rates. We summarised firearm policy changes in state outliers using the RAND State Firearm Law Database. Results: We identified New York, District of Columbia, and Hawaii as low state outliers and Delaware, New Jersey, and Missouri as high state outliers. Low state outliers made more restrictive firearm policy changes than high state outliers, which covered a wider range of policy types. Restrictive changes in high state outliers primarily targeted high-risk populations (e.g., prohibited possessors, safe storage). Specific legislative details, such as the age threshold (18 vs 21 years old) for firearm minimum age requirements, also emerged as important for differentiating low from high state outliers. Conclusions: While no firearm law change emerged as necessary or sufficient, an accumulation of diverse restrictive firearm policies may be key to alleviating the death toll from firearm homicide.

County-Level Variation in Changes in Firearm Mortality Rates Across the US, 1989 to 1993 vs 2015 to 2019.

Importance: Firearm violence remains a critical public health challenge, disproportionately impacting some US regions. County-level variation may hold key insights into how firearm mortality rates vary across the US. Objective: To model county-level changes in firearm mortality rates (total, homicide, and suicide) from 1989 to 1993 vs 2015 to 2019 and identify and characterize hot spots showing unexpected changes over time. Design, Setting, and Participants: This is a cross-sectional study with 2 time points using a novel small area estimation method to analyze restricted access mortality microdata by cause of death and US county. The analysis included 3111 US counties from 49 states and the District of Columbia from January 1, 1989, to December 31, 2019. Bayesian spatial models were fitted to map geographical variation in changes in age-standardized firearm mortality rates (per 100 000 person-years) from 1989 to 1993 vs 2015 to 2019. County outliers (or hot spots) were defined as having observed rates that fell outside the 95% credible intervals of their expected posterior predictive distribution. These counties were characterized using visualization and descriptive statistics of their characteristics. Data were analyzed from June to December 2021. Exposures: County of residence. Main Outcomes and Measures: Five-year age-standardized mortality rates by US county, age, and cause of death for 1989 to 1993 and 2015 to 2019. Results: Between 1989 and 2019, 1 036 518 firearm deaths were recorded in counties across the US. Suicide was the most common cause of firearm mortality (589 285 deaths) followed by homicide (412 231 deaths). Age-standardized rates (deaths per 100 000 individuals) for firearm deaths and suicides increased from 1989 to 1993 vs 2015 to 2019 (mean [SD] change, 0.16 [8.78] for firearm deaths and 1.21 [6.91] for suicides), while firearm homicides decreased (mean [SD] change, -0.39 [3.96]). However, these national trends were not homogeneous across counties and often varied by geographical region. The West and Midwest showed the most pronounced increases in firearm suicide rates, whereas the Southeast showed localized increases in firearm homicide rates, despite the national decreasing trend. Critical hot spots were identified in urban counties of Alabama, and firearm homicide rates (per 100 000) in Baltimore City, Maryland, almost doubled from 29.71 to 47.43, and by 2015 to 2019 it accounted for 66.7% of all firearm homicide in Maryland. By contrast, District of Columbia showed promising improvements over time, decreasing from 56.5 firearm homicides per 100 000 in 1989 to 1993 to 14.45 in 2015 to 2019. Conclusions and Relevance: There was substantial variation in rates and changes in firearm deaths among US counties. Geographical hot spots may be useful to inform targeted prevention efforts and local policy responses.

Analysis of "Stand Your Ground" Self-defense Laws and Statewide Rates of Homicides and Firearm Homicides.

Importance: Most US states have amended self-defense laws to enhance legal immunities for individuals using deadly force in public. Despite concerns that "stand your ground" (SYG) laws unnecessarily encourage the use of deadly violence, their impact on violent deaths and how this varies across states and demographic groups remains unclear. Objective: To evaluate the association of SYG laws with homicide and firearm homicide, nationally and by state, while considering variation by the race, age, and sex of individuals who died by homicide. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used a controlled, multiple-baseline and -location interrupted time series design, using natural variation in the timings and locations of SYG laws to assess associations. Changes in homicide and firearm homicide were modeled using Poisson regression analyses within a generalized additive model framework. Analyses included all US states that enacted SYG laws between 2000 and 2016 and states that did not have SYG laws enacted during the full study period, 1999 to 2017. Data were analyzed from November 2019 to December 2020. Exposures: SYG self-defense laws enacted by statute between January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2016. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were statewide monthly rates of homicide and firearm-related homicide (per 100 000 persons) from January 1, 1999, to December 31, 2017, grouped by characteristics (ie, race, age, sex) of individuals who died by homicide. Results: Forty-one states were analyzed, including 23 states that enacted SYG laws during the study period and 18 states that did not have SYG laws, with 248 358 homicides (43.7% individuals aged 20-34 years; 77.9% men and 22.1% women), including 170 659 firearm homicides. SYG laws were associated with a mean national increase of 7.8% in monthly homicide rates (incidence rate ratio [IRR],1.08; 95% CI, 1.04-1.12; P < .001) and 8.0% in monthly firearm homicide rates (IRR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.03-1.13; P = .002). SYG laws were not associated with changes in the negative controls of suicide (IRR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.98-1.01) or firearm suicide (IRR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.98-1.02). Increases in violent deaths varied across states, with the largest increases (16.2% to 33.5%) clustering in the South (eg, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana). There were no differential associations of SYG laws by demographic group. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that adoption of SYG laws across the US was associated with increases in violent deaths, deaths that could potentially have been avoided.

Trends in inpatient care for psychiatric disorders in NHS hospitals across England, 1998/99-2019/20: an observational time series analysis.

PURPOSE: It is unclear how hospitals are responding to the mental health needs of the population in England, against a backdrop of diminishing resources. We aimed to document patterns in hospital activity by psychiatric disorder and how these have changed over the last 22 years. METHODS: In this observational time series analysis, we used routinely collected data on all NHS hospitals in England from 1998/99 to 2019/20. Trends in hospital admissions and bed days for psychiatric disorders were smoothed using negative binomial regression models with year as the exposure and rates (per 1000 person-years) as the outcome. When linear trends were not appropriate, we fitted segmented negative binomial regression models with one change-point. We stratified by gender and age group [children (0-14 years); adults (15 years +)]. RESULTS: Hospital admission rates and bed days for all psychiatric disorders decreased by 28.4 and 38.3%, respectively. Trends were not uniform across psychiatric disorders or age groups. Admission rates mainly decreased over time, except for anxiety and eating disorders which doubled over the 22-year period, significantly increasing by 2.9% (AAPC = 2.88; 95% CI: 2.61-3.16; p < 0.001) and 3.4% (AAPC = 3.44; 95% CI: 3.04-3.85; p < 0.001) each year. Inpatient hospital activity among children showed more increasing and pronounced trends than adults, including an increase of 212.9% for depression, despite a 63.8% reduction for adults with depression during the same period. CONCLUSION: In the last 22 years, there have been overall reductions in hospital activity for psychiatric disorders. However, some disorders showed pronounced increases, pointing to areas of growing need for inpatient psychiatric care, especially among children.

Oxford Understanding Relationships, Sex, Power, Abuse and Consent Experiences (OUR SPACE) cross-sectional survey: a study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Sexual violence among higher education students is a public health concern, threatening the general safety of students, often with significant physical and mental health implications for victims. Establishing the prevalence estimates of sexual violence at higher education institutions (HEIs) is essential for designing and resourcing responses to sexual violence, including monitoring the effectiveness of prevention initiatives and institutional programmes. Yet, to date, there have been no rigorous studies assessing prevalence of sexual violence at HEIs in the UK. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Informed by guidance from Universities UK, the University of Oxford administration and the related student advocacy groups working within the University, Oxford Understanding Relationships, Sex, Power, Abuse and Consent Experiences is a cross-sectional survey of all undergraduate and graduate students over the age of 18 enrolled at the University of Oxford, UK. The survey design uses a complete sampling approach and measures adapted from previous campus climate surveys in the USA as well as the Sexual Experiences Survey (USA). The analysis will estimate the prevalence of sexual harassment and sexual violence perpetration and victimisation, and will examine whether ethnicity, gender identity, and sexual orientation are associated with these primary outcomes. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was obtained by the Social Sciences and Humanities Interdivisional Research Ethics Committee at the University of Oxford which is a subcommittee of the Central University Research Ethics Committee (ref no.: R73805/RE001). The research team will disseminate findings through peer-reviewed journal articles and conference presentations. A report cowritten by authors and stakeholders will be shared with Oxford University students.

Synthetic Control Methods for the Evaluation of Single-Unit Interventions in Epidemiology: A Tutorial.

Evaluating the impacts of population-level interventions (e.g., changes to state legislation) can be challenging as conducting randomized experiments is often impractical and inappropriate, especially in settings where the intervention is implemented in a single, aggregate unit (e.g., a country or state). A common nonrandomized alternative is to compare outcomes in the treated unit(s) with unexposed controls both before and after the intervention. However, the validity of these designs depends on the use of controls that closely resemble the treated unit on before-intervention characteristics and trends on the outcome, and suitable controls may be difficult to find because the number of potential control regions is typically limited. The synthetic control method provides a potential solution to these problems by using a data-driven algorithm to identify an optimal weighted control unit-a "synthetic control"-based on data from before the intervention from available control units. While popular in the social sciences, the method has not garnered as much attention in health research, perhaps due to a lack of accessible texts aimed at health researchers. We address this gap by providing a comprehensive, nontechnical tutorial on the synthetic control method, using a worked example evaluating Florida's "stand your ground" law to illustrate methodological and practical considerations.

The Role of Schools in Early Adolescents' Mental Health: Findings From the MYRIAD Study.

OBJECTIVE: Recent studies suggest mental health in youths is deteriorating. The current policy in the United Kingdom emphasizes the role of schools for mental health promotion and prevention, but little data exist on what aspects of schools influence mental health in pupils. This study explored school-level influences on the mental health of young people in a large school-based sample from the United Kingdom. METHOD: Baseline data from a large cluster randomized controlled trial collected between 2016 and 2018 from mainstream secondary schools selected to be representative in relation to their quality rating, size, deprivation, mixed or single-sex pupil population, and country were analyzed. Participants were pupils in their first or second year of secondary school. The study assessed whether school-level factors were associated with pupil mental health. RESULTS: The study included 26,885 pupils (response rate = 90%; age range, 11‒14 years; 55% female) attending 85 schools in the United Kingdom. Schools accounted for 2.4% (95% CI: 2.0%‒2.8%; p < .0001) of the variation in psychopathology, 1.6% (95% CI: 1.2%‒2.1%; p < .0001) of depression, and 1.4% (95% CI: 1.0%‒1.7%; p < .0001) of well-being. Schools in urban locations, with a higher percentage of free school meals and of White British, were associated with poorer pupil mental health. A more positive school climate was associated with better mental health. CONCLUSION: School-level variables, primarily related to contextual factors, characteristics of pupil population, and school climate, explain a small but significant amount of variability in mental health of young people. This information might be used to identify schools that are in need of more resources to support mental health of young people. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION: MYRIAD: My Resilience in Adolescence, a Study Examining the Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of a Mindfulness Training Programme in Schools Compared With Normal School Provision; https://www.isrctn.com/; 86619085.

Is area deprivation associated with greater impacts of COVID-19 in care homes across England? A preliminary analysis of COVID-19 outbreaks and deaths.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately impacted care homes and vulnerable populations, exacerbating existing health inequalities. However, the role of area deprivation in shaping the impacts of COVID-19 in care homes is poorly understood. We examine whether area deprivation is linked to higher rates of COVID-19 outbreaks and deaths among care home residents across upper tier local authorities in England (n=149). METHODS: We constructed a novel dataset from publicly available data. Using negative binomial regression models, we analysed the associations between area deprivation (Income Deprivation Affecting Older People Index (IDAOPI) and Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) extent) as the exposure and COVID-19 outbreaks, COVID-19-related deaths and all-cause deaths among care home residents as three separate outcomes-adjusting for population characteristics (size, age composition, ethnicity). RESULTS: COVID-19 outbreaks in care homes did not vary by area deprivation. However, COVID-19-related deaths were more common in the most deprived quartiles of IDAOPI (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.23, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.47) and IMD extent (IRR: 1.16, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.34), compared with the least deprived quartiles. DISCUSSION: These findings suggest that area deprivation is a key risk factor in COVID-19 deaths among care home residents. Future research should look to replicate these results when more complete data become available.

A systematic review of the associations between care home ownership and COVID-19 outbreaks, infections and mortality.

Social care markets often rely on the for-profit sector to meet service demand. For-profit care homes have been reported to suffer higher rates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections and deaths, but it is unclear whether these worse outcomes can be attributed to ownership status. To address this, we designed and prospectively registered a living systematic review protocol ( CRD42020218673 ). Here we report on the systematic review and quality appraisal of 32 studies across five countries that investigated ownership variation in COVID-19 outcomes among care homes. We show that, although for-profit ownership was not consistently associated with a higher risk of a COVID-19 outbreak, there was evidence that for-profit care homes had higher rates of COVID-19 infections and deaths. We also found evidence that for-profit ownership was associated with personal protective equipment (PPE) shortages. Variation in COVID-19 outcomes is not driven by ownership status alone, and factors related to staffing, provider size and resident characteristics were also linked to poorer outcomes. However, this synthesis finds that for-profit status and care home characteristics associated with for-profit status are linked to exacerbated COVID-19 outcomes.

Can synthetic controls improve causal inference in interrupted time series evaluations of public health interventions?

Interrupted time series designs are a valuable quasi-experimental approach for evaluating public health interventions. Interrupted time series extends a single group pre-post comparison by using multiple time points to control for underlying trends. But history bias-confounding by unexpected events occurring at the same time of the intervention-threatens the validity of this design and limits causal inference. Synthetic control methodology, a popular data-driven technique for deriving a control series from a pool of unexposed populations, is increasingly recommended. In this paper, we evaluate if and when synthetic controls can strengthen an interrupted time series design. First, we summarize the main observational study designs used in evaluative research, highlighting their respective uses, strengths, biases and design extensions for addressing these biases. Second, we outline when the use of synthetic controls can strengthen interrupted time series studies and when their combined use may be problematic. Third, we provide recommendations for using synthetic controls in interrupted time series and, using a real-world example, we illustrate the potential pitfalls of using a data-driven approach to identify a suitable control series. Finally, we emphasize the importance of theoretical approaches for informing study design and argue that synthetic control methods are not always well suited for generating a counterfactual that minimizes critical threats to interrupted time series studies. Advances in synthetic control methods bring new opportunities to conduct rigorous research in evaluating public health interventions. However, incorporating synthetic controls in interrupted time series studies may not always nullify important threats to validity nor improve causal inference.