An integrated system to assess marine extinctions.

More than 20 global marine extinctions and over 700 local extinctions have reportedly occurred during the past 500 years. However, available methods to determine how many of these species can be confidently declared true disappearances tend to be data-demanding, time-consuming, and not applicable to all taxonomic groups or scales of marine extinctions (global [G] and local [L]). We developed an integrated system to assess marine extinctions (ISAME) that can be applied to any taxonomic group at any geographic scale. We applied the ISAME method to 10 case studies to illustrate the possible ways in which the extinction status of marine species can be categorized as unverified, possibly extinct, or extinct. Of the 10 case studies we assessed, the ISAME method concludes that 6 should be categorized as unverified extinctions due to problems with species' identity and lack of reliable evidence supporting their disappearance (periwinkle-Littoraria flammea [G], houting-Coregonus oxyrinchus [G], long-spined urchin-Diadema antillarum [L], smalltooth sawfish-Pristis pectinata [L], and largetooth sawfish-P. pristis [L]). In contrast, ISAME classified the Guadalupe storm-petrel (Oceanodroma macrodactyla [G]) and the lost shark (Carcharhinus obsolerus [G]) as possibly extinct because the available evidence indicates that their extinction is plausible-while the largetooth sawfish [L] and Steller's sea cow (Hydrodamalis gigas [G]) were confirmed to be extinct. Determining whether a marine population or species is actually extinct or still extant is needed to guide conservation efforts and prevent further biodiversity losses.

Multidecadal fluctuations in green turtle hatchling production related to climate variability.

The state of Campeche, Mexico, harbors one of the largest green turtle (Chelonia mydas) rookeries of the Wider Caribbean Region. Since the 1970s, harvesting of this population was common practice, but it has since ceased, and the population is rebounding as a consequence. In this rookery, during the past 37 years (1984-2020), the positive relationship between the annual number of nesting females and the number of hatchlings they produce has revealed a long-term population signal that we postulate could be related to environmental factors. To investigate this relationship more deeply, we adopt a stock-recruitment (SR) approach, which is commonly used in fisheries. Regression analysis methods for the SR relationship, including a dynamic version of the model that incorporates the effect of sea surface temperature, show that the number of recruits produced and the number of hatchlings per unit nester were significantly and inversely correlated with a 26-year cycle of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) with a three year lag. A possible explanation for this finding is that environmental conditions during warming periods of the 26-year AMO cycle may negatively affect hatchling production by altering the nest moisture content during the incubation period, and increasing embryonic mortality, while the annual female abundance at nesting beaches may decrease due to trophic effects. The time series of abundance corresponding to other population units of green turtles as well as other species of sea turtles in the Gulf of Mexico present a similar behavior to that evaluated here, suggesting a basin-wide environmental effect.

Abundancia, distribución espacial y temporal de aves playeras (Orden: Charadriiformes) en Marismas Nacionales, México

El noroeste de México alberga las mayores abundancias de aves playeras del país. Sin embargo, para muchos de estos humedales, información sobre comunidades de aves playeras, como abundancia, tendencias poblacionales y riqueza es limitada. Actualmente, los sitios de descanso son críticos para la conservación porque las poblaciones de aves playeras han decaído en las últimas décadas. Marismas Nacionales (MN) es un humedal tropical importante con un ecosistema dinámico donde los estudios de aves playeras están limitados a unos pocos censos aéreos y terrestres. Así el objetivo del trabajo fue describir la abundancia y distribución espacial y temporal de las aves playeras en MN (temporada 2010-2011). Se seleccionaron ocho unidades de muestreo en las que se llevaron a cabo censos mensuales (noviembre 2010 a junio 2011). Se determinaron las riquezas y abundancias por sitio-mes, además se realizó un análisis espacial y temporal de las especies dominantes. Se registraron 27 especies de aves playeras y un género, con un estimado mínimo de 136 236 individuos. Este número hace a MN uno de los humedales prioritarios para la conservación en México, pues alberga al 10 % de la abundancia general del noroeste. Las especies dominantes fueron el Playerito occidental (Calidris mauri, 33 % del total), la Avoceta americana (Recurvirostra americana, 31 %) y los Costureros (Limnodromus spp., 17 %). Espacialmente las lagunas de mayor importancia fueron: Chumbeño (37 % del total registrado), Las Garzas-Chahuin (24 %) y La Polca (24 %). Este trabajo actualiza la información sobre aves playeras que utilizan MN y podría permitir el establecimiento de un programa de monitoreo, lo cual es prioritario sobre todo porque el área es un Sitio de Importancia Internacional por parte de la Red Hemisférica de Reserva para las Aves Playeras.

Northwest Mexico is an important region for shorebirds associated with an extensive series of wetlands. However, for many of these wetlands, basic information about shorebirds communities like abundance, population trends, and richness are limited. Currently, wintering and stopover sites are critical for conservation because many populations of shorebirds have declined in the last decades. Marismas Nacionales (MN) is an important tropical wetland with a dynamic ecosystem and where shorebirds studies are limited to few wintering aerial and ground surveys. Our goals were analyzing shorebirds abundance and spatial and temporal distribution patterns in 2010-2011 season. We selected eight monitoring sites from two prospective visits to the study area. We observed shorebirds monthly between November 2010 and June 2011 to analyze richness and abundance patterns by site and month. Additionally, we describe specific spatial and temporal distribution for dominant species. A total of 27 shorebirds species and one genus, with a minimum global abundance of 136 236 individuals were found. Shorebird abundance at MN is among the most important in the region with around 10 % of total abundance in northwest Mexico; therefore, MN is a priority conservation site for this group of birds. Additionally, MN presents a suitable habitat for breeding of some shorebirds species such as Snowy and Wilson' Plover, Killdeer, Northern Jacana, Black-necked Stilt and Pacific American Oystercatcher. Dominant species were: Western Sandpiper (33.5 % of total in MN), American Avocet (31 %) and Dowitchers (17 %). These taxa are very common in others wetlands in Northwest Mexico region. Spatially, shorebirds were distributed in three sites: Chumbeño lagoon (37 % of abundance total), Las Garzas-Chihuin lagoons (24.2 %) and La Polca lagoon (24 %). The less used sites by shorebirds are located in the southern part of MN. Our results update MN information and can help to establish monitoring programs in the area.

Macro-Scale Patterns in Upwelling/Downwelling Activity at North American West Coast.

The seasonal and interannual variability of vertical transport (upwelling/downwelling) has been relatively well studied, mainly for the California Current System, including low-frequency changes and latitudinal heterogeneity. The aim of this work was to identify potentially predictable patterns in upwelling/downwelling activity along the North American west coast and discuss their plausible mechanisms. To this purpose we applied the min/max Autocorrelation Factor technique and time series analysis. We found that spatial co-variation of seawater vertical movements present three dominant low-frequency signals in the range of 33, 19 and 11 years, resembling periodicities of: atmospheric circulation, nodal moon tides and solar activity. Those periodicities might be related to the variability of vertical transport through their influence on dominant wind patterns, the position/intensity of pressure centers and the strength of atmospheric circulation cells (wind stress). The low-frequency signals identified in upwelling/downwelling are coherent with temporal patterns previously reported at the study region: sea surface temperature along the Pacific coast of North America, catch fluctuations of anchovy Engraulis mordax and sardine Sardinops sagax, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, changes in abundance and distribution of salmon populations, and variations in the position and intensity of the Aleutian low. Since the vertical transport is an oceanographic process with strong biological relevance, the recognition of their spatio-temporal patterns might allow for some reasonable forecasting capacity, potentially useful for marine resources management of the region.

Statistical inference for extinction rates based on last sightings.

Rates of extinction can be estimated from sighting records and are assumed to be implicitly constant by many data analysis methods. However, historical sightings are scarce. Frequently, the only information available for inferring extinction is the date of the last sighting. In this study, we developed a probabilistic model and a corresponding statistical inference procedure based on last sightings. We applied this procedure to data on recent marine extirpations and extinctions, seeking to test the null hypothesis of a constant extinction rate. We found that over the past 500 years extirpations in the ocean have been increasing but at an uncertain rate, whereas a constant rate of global marine extinctions is statistically plausible. The small sample sizes of marine extinction records generate such high uncertainty that different combinations of model inputs can yield different outputs that fit the observed data equally well. Thus, current marine extinction trends may be idiosyncratic.

Extinciones en el mar: mitos y realidades / Extinctions in the sea: myths and realities

No hay duda de que el hombre ha provocado cantidad de extinciones, sobre todo en el medio terrestre. En el mar, en cambio, comprobar más allá de la duda razonable que el último representante de una especie ha desaparecido de la faz de la tierra es una tarea más difícil. En el presente trabajo se muestran los resultados más importantes de una rigurosa revisión de las extinciones marinas documentadas durante los últimos 200 años. Se encontró que ~50 por ciento de las extinciones y extirpaciones de especies marinas resultan dudosas porque no se considera información crítica acerca de su distribución espacio-temporal, o bien la evidencia que se utiliza para evaluarlas es insuficiente o inadecuada. Se concluye que 1) el hombre es capaz de eliminar especies marinas, en particular aquellas que naturalmente son más propensas a la extinción; 2) las extinciones registradas en el mar son menos frecuentes que las del medio terrestre, y a pesar de que existe una tendencia positiva en el número promedio de extinciones documentadas durante los siglos XIX y XX, la tendencia de las extinciones registradas es negativa en los últimos 100 años; 3) antes de declarar una especie como extinta, la evidencia que apoya tal declaración debe ser evaluada con todo el rigor científico; y 4) declarar de manera prematura la extinción de especies, pudiera afectar negativamente los propios esfuerzos que se inviertan para la conservación.

Examen de la conservación y el aprovehamiento de los recursos / Conservation and sustainable use living natural resources

En la actualidad, un sector muy amplio de la sociedad habla de conservación. La noción más básica que [aún] se tiene del concepto implica mantener intacto un sistema natural de manera indefinida sin otra finalidad que la de asegurar su existencia misma. Esta idea se contrapone al concepto de conservación consensuado a nivel internacional, que implica obtener sostenidamente el mayor beneficio posible de los recursos naturales renovables para beneficio del hombre. En el presente ensayo, discutimos los conceptos relacionados de preservación, conservación, aprovechamiento y explotación desmedida. Concluimos que aprovechamiento óptimo y conservación debieran ser considerados sinónimos. El corolario es que es necesario replantear los modelos de uso de los recursos naturales renovables para incrementar la eficiencia de utilización y cumplimentar los propósitos de la conservación

Reflexiones sobre la explotación recuperación y exintinción de poblaciones naturales / Meditate on the exploitation recovery and natural populations' extinction

La idea tradicional de que la explotación provoca cambios irreversibles en las espécies de interés comercial parece no estar del todo justificadas, sino al contrario, existen evidencias basadas en biología y genética de poblaciones que apuntan que no existen razones evidentes como para creer que una población no pueda restablecerse una vez suprimida la presión ejercida por el hombre. Al parecer, solo los cambios en el ambiente pueden llevar a las poblaciones a niveles a partir de los cuales ya no puedan recuperarse. Se hace una revisión de varios casos que apoyan ésta hipótesis